Tehran using violence and politics to push US out of Iraq, say experts

An Iraqi protester flashes the victory sign during a strike and anti-government demonstrations in Baghdad. (AFP)
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Updated 24 January 2020
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Tehran using violence and politics to push US out of Iraq, say experts

  • A withdrawal of US troops from Iraq would be a victory for Iran, and Tehran has long pursued a two-pronged strategy of supporting anti-US militias

BEIRUT: Iran has long sought the withdrawal of American forces from neighboring Iraq, but the US killing of an Iranian general and an Iraqi militia commander in Baghdad has added new impetus to the effort, stoking anti-American feelings that Tehran hopes to exploit to help realize the goal.

The Jan. 3 killing has led Iraq’s parliament to call for the ouster of US troops, but there are many lingering questions over whether Iran will be able to capitalize on the sentiment.

An early test will be a “million-man” demonstration against the American presence, called for by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr and scheduled for Friday.

It is not clear whether the protesters will try to recreate a New Year’s Eve attack on the US Embassy compound in Baghdad by Iran-supported militias in the wake of US airstrikes that killed 25 militiamen along the border with Syria. Iran might simply try to use the march to telegraph its intention to keep up the pressure on US troops in Iraq.

But experts say Iran can be counted on to try to seize what it sees as an opportunity to push its agenda in Iraq, despite an ongoing mass uprising that is targeting government corruption as well as Iranian influence in the country.

“Iran is unconstrained by considerations of Iraqi sovereignty, domestic public opinion, or legality when compared to the Western democracies,” said David Des Roches, an expert with The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “This is Iran’s strategic advantage; they should be expected to press it.”

A withdrawal of US troops from Iraq would be a victory for Iran, and Tehran has long pursued a two-pronged strategy of supporting anti-US militias that carry out attacks, as well as exerting political pressure on Iraqi lawmakers sympathetic to its cause. Despite usually trying to keep attacks at a level below what might provoke an American response, Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets at a military base in Kirkuk in December, killing a US contractor and wounding several US and Iraqi troops.

The US responded first with deadly airstrikes on Iran-affiliated militia bases in western Iraq and Syria, then followed with the Jan. 3 drone attack that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful military officer, along with Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis as they left Baghdad’s airport.

The severity of the US response surprised Iran and others, and it had the unanticipated result of bolstering Tehran’s political approach by prompting the Iraqi parliament to pass the resolution calling for the expulsion of all foreign troops from the country. 

In response, President Donald Trump has threatened sanctions on Iraq.

“What they want to do is get rid of US troops in what they see as a legitimate political manner,” said Dina Esfandiary, a London-based expert with The Century Foundation think tank. “If Iraqis themselves are voting out US troops, it looks a lot better for Iran than if Iran is a puppet master in Iraq trying to get rid of them — and on top of that it would be a more lasting decision.”

The legitimacy of the resolution is a matter of dispute. Not only was the session boycotted by Kurdish lawmakers and many Sunnis, but there also are questions of whether Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has the ability to carry it out. Abdul Mahdi resigned in November amid mass anti-government protests but remains in a caretaker role.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo bluntly rejected the call for the troops’ removal, instead saying Washington would “continue the conversation with the Iraqis about what the right structure is.”

Abdul Mahdi strongly supported the resolution, but since then has said it will be up to the next government to deal with the issue, and there are indications he has been working behind the scenes to help keep foreign troops in the country.

After closed-door meetings with German diplomats last week, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said the prime minister had assured them that he had “great interest” in keeping the Bundeswehr military contingent and others part of the anti-Daesh coalition in Iraq.

The US, meantime, said it had resumed joint operations with Iraqi forces, albeit on a more limited basis than before.

Trump met Iraqi President Barham Saleh on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and said Washington and Baghdad have had “a very good relationship” and that the two countries had a “host of very difficult things to discuss.” Saleh said they have shared common interests including the fight against extremism, regional stability and an independent Iraq.

Asked about the plan for US troops in Iraq, Trump said, “We’ll see what happens.”

In a sign that bodes well for NATO’s continuing mission in the country, Iraq’s deputy foreign minister went to Brussels last week for talks with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on the alliance’s presence in Iraq.

The mixed message of publicly calling for the troops to go but privately wanting them to stay is an indication of Iran’s strong influence, particularly among its fellow Shiite Muslims, Des Roches said.

“For any Iraqi politician in Baghdad — particularly a Shia politician — to defy Iran openly is to risk political as well as physical death,” he said. “So we shouldn’t be surprised if the public and the private lines espoused by Iraqi politicians differ.”

American forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011 but returned in 2014 at the invitation of the government to help battle Daesh after the extremist group seized vast areas in the north and west of the country. A US-led coalition provided crucial air support as Iraqi forces, including Iran-backed militias, regrouped and drove Daesh out in a costly three-year campaign. There are currently some 5,200 American troops in the country.

Even before the drone strike, there were growing calls in nationwide protests across sectarian lines, which started in October centered in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, for the end of all foreign influence in the country. The demonstrations also targeted government corruption and poor public services.

The rejection of Iranian influence over Iraqi state affairs has been a core component of the movement, and pro-Iranian militias have targeted those demonstrations along with Iraqi security forces, killing hundreds and injuring thousands. Protesters fear that with the focus on the push for the US troop withdrawal in response to the attack that killed Soleimani, they may be even easier targets for those forces and that their message will be lost.

“I think Iraq has had enough of having to deal with the Americans and the Iranians alike,” Esfandiary said. “But the assassination of Al-Muhandis, almost more so than Solemani, was such a glaring oversight of sovereignty and of all agreements they had signed on to with the US in terms of the US presence in Iraq, that it has kind of taken some of the attention away from Iran, to Tehran’s delight.”

Friday’s march called for by Al-Sadr is expected to redirect the focus onto the US troops. The cleric, who also leads the Sairoon bloc in parliament, derives much of his political capital through grassroots mobilization.

The Tahrir Square protesters initially rejected that call, saying they want the escalating conflict between Iran and the US off of Iraqi soil.

Since then, Al-Sadr has reached out to them directly, saying the demonstrations against the government and against the American troops are “two lights from a single lamp,” and it is not yet clear whether that might convince them to participate in the march.


Qatar says ‘we will need time’ for Gaza ceasefire

Updated 08 July 2025
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Qatar says ‘we will need time’ for Gaza ceasefire

  • Qatar says the meetings in Doha are focused on a framework for the talks
  • US President Donald Trump earlier voiced optimism about a possible breakthrough

DOHA: Qatar said Tuesday more time was needed for negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, after US President Donald Trump voiced optimism about a possible breakthrough.

“I don’t think that I can give any timeline at the moment, but I can say right now that we will need time for this,” Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari said as indirect negotiations continued into a third day in Doha.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington, meanwhile, on his third visit to the White House since Trump returned to power.

Trump, who is pushing for a ceasefire, expressed confidence a deal could be reached, saying: “I don’t think there is a hold-up. I think things are going along very well.”

Qatar, a mediator along with the United States and Egypt, said the meetings in Doha were focused on a framework for the talks, while a Palestinian official close to the negotiations said no breakthrough had been achieved so far.

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff was set to join the talks in Doha this week.

On the ground, five Israeli soldiers were killed in combat in northern Gaza — one of the deadliest days this year for Israeli forces in the Palestinian territory.

Gaza’s civil defense meanwhile reported 29 killed in Israeli strikes on Tuesday.

Israel and Hamas began the latest round of negotiations on Sunday, with representatives seated in separate rooms within the same building.

At the White House, sitting across from Netanyahu, Trump said Hamas was willing to end the Gaza conflict, now in its 22nd month.

“They want to meet and they want to have that ceasefire,” Trump said when asked if ongoing clashes would derail talks.

An Israeli official accompanying Netanyahu to Washington said the proposal under discussion was “80-90 percent of what Israel wanted.”

“I believe that with military and political pressure, all the hostages can be returned,” the official told Israeli media.

According to Ariel Kahana of Israel Hayom daily, “President Trump and his advisers are currently exerting considerable effort to reach an agreement that would lead to the release of the hostages and could even end the war in Gaza.”

However, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir opposed negotiations with Hamas, saying that “there is no need to negotiate with those who murder our fighters; they must be torn to shreds.”

Netanyahu described the loss of five soldiers in Gaza as a “difficult morning” and mourned “our heroic soldiers who risked their lives in the battle to defeat Hamas and free all our hostages.”

Israeli military correspondents reported the deaths occurred due to improvised explosive devices near Beit Hanun in northern Gaza.

According to the Israeli military, 450 soldiers have been killed in the Gaza military campaign since the start of the ground offensive on October 27, 2023.

Gaza’s civil defense agency reported 29 people killed in Israeli strikes across the territory, including three children.

Mahmud Bassal, a spokesman for the agency, said nine of those were killed in a drone strike on a camp for displaced people in southern Gaza.

“I was in front of my tent preparing breakfast for my four children – beans and a bit of dry bread. Suddenly, there was an explosion,” said Shaimaa Al-Shaer, 30, who lives in the camp.

Media restrictions in Gaza and difficulties in accessing many areas mean AFP is unable to independently verify the tolls and details provided by the civil defense agency.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military when contacted by AFP.

The war has created dire humanitarian conditions for Gaza’s more than two million people.

While Israel has the full backing of the Trump administration, the US leader has increasingly pushed for an end to what he called the “hell” in Gaza and said on Sunday he believed there was a “good chance” of an agreement this coming week.

“The utmost priority for the president right now in the Middle East is to end the war in Gaza and to return all of the hostages,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

The US proposal included a 60-day truce, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and several bodies in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel, two Palestinian sources close to the discussions had earlier said.

Hamas was also demanding certain conditions for Israel’s withdrawal, guarantees against a resumption of fighting during negotiations, and the return of the UN-led aid distribution system, they said.

Of the 251 hostages taken by Palestinian militants during the October 2023 Hamas attack that triggered the war, 49 are still held in Gaza, including 27 the Israeli military says are dead.

Hamas’s October 2023 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.

Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 57,575 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The UN considers the figures reliable.


Syria seeks European help as forest wildfires rage

Updated 08 July 2025
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Syria seeks European help as forest wildfires rage

  • The fires have been burning for six days, with Syrian emergency crews struggling to bring them under control amid strong winds and severe drought

DAMASCUS: Syria’s minister of emergencies and disaster management on Tuesday requested support from the European Union to battle wildfires that have swept through a vast stretch of forested land.
The fires have been burning for six days, with Syrian emergency crews struggling to bring them under control amid strong winds and severe drought.
Neighbouring countries Jordan, Lebanon and Turkiye have already dispatched firefighting teams to assist in the response.
“We asked the European Union for help in extinguishing the fires,” minister Raed Al-Saleh said on X, adding Cyprus was expected to send aid on Tuesday.
“Fear of the fires spreading due to strong winds last night prompted us to evacuate 25 families to ensure their safety without any human casualties,” he added.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) office in Syria, the fires impacted “some 5,000 persons, including displacements, across 60 communities.”
An estimated 100 square kilometers (40 square miles) of forest and farmland — more than three percent of Syria’s forest cover — have burned, OCHA told AFP.
At least seven towns in Latakia province have been evacuated as a precaution.
Efforts to extinguish the fires have been hindered by “rugged terrain, the absence of firebreaks, strong winds, and the presence of mines and unexploded ordnance,” Saleh said.
Seven months after the fall of longtime ruler Bashar Assad, Syria continues to face the repercussions of its 14-year civil war, which include explosive remnants scattered across the country.
With man-made climate change increasing the likelihood and intensity of droughts and wildfires worldwide, Syria has also been battered by heatwaves and low rainfall.
In June, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said Syria had “not seen such bad climate conditions in 60 years.”


Israel far-right minister demands end to Gaza ceasefire talks

Updated 08 July 2025
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Israel far-right minister demands end to Gaza ceasefire talks

  • Minister calls for ‘total siege, military crushing, encouraging emigration (of Palestinians outside of Gaza), and (Israeli) settlement’ in the Gaza Strip
  • Israel has been waging war on Hamas in Gaza for over 21 months, its troops gradually occupying more and more of the Palestinian territory

JERUSALEM: Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Tuesday urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call back a delegation conducting indirect talks with Hamas in Qatar for a ceasefire in Gaza.

“I call on the Prime Minister to immediately recall the delegation that went to negotiate with the Hamas murderers in Doha,” Ben Gvir said in a post on X on the third day of talks between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement.

Instead, the minister who lives in a West Bank settlement called for “total siege, military crushing, encouraging emigration (of Palestinians outside of Gaza), and (Israeli) settlement” in the Gaza Strip.

He called these measures “the keys to total victory, not a reckless deal that would release thousands of terrorists and withdraw the (Israeli army) from areas captured with the blood of our soldiers.”

A Palestinian official close to the talks said on Tuesday that the talks were ongoing, with a focus on “the mechanisms for implementation, particularly the clauses related to withdrawal and humanitarian aid.”

Netanyahu traveled to Washington for his third visit since Trump’s return to power, where the US president on Monday voiced confidence that a deal could be reached.

The Israeli leader ruled out a full Palestinian state, insisting Israel would “always” keep security control over the Gaza Strip.

Israel has been waging war on Hamas in Gaza for over 21 months, its troops gradually occupying more and more of the Palestinian territory.

According to the UN, 82 percent of Gaza is now under Israeli military control or displacement orders.

The war was triggered by Hamas’s unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

The attack resulted in 1,219 deaths on the Israeli side, mostly civilians, according to an AFP count based on official data.

Of the 251 people abducted that day, 49 are still hostages in Gaza, including 27 declared dead by the Israeli army.

At least 57,523 Gazans, most of them civilians, have been killed in Israel’s retaliatory campaign, according to data from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry.

The figures are deemed reliable by the UN.


South Sudan’s president fires army chief after seven months in post

Updated 08 July 2025
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South Sudan’s president fires army chief after seven months in post

  • No reason was given for the firing of army chief Paul Nang Majok

NAIROBI: South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir has fired the country’s army chief after seven months in the post and named a replacement, according to an announcement on state radio.
No reason was given for the firing of Paul Nang Majok in the announcement late on Monday. Majok had been in the post since December. The announcement said Kiir had appointed Dau Aturjong as the Chief of Defense Forces.
Majok was in charge of the army while fighting raged between the army and the White Army, an ethnic militia largely comprising Nuer youths, triggering the country’s latest political crisis.
“There has been a tradition that when you are appointed, or reassigned there are no reasons (given) for getting appointed and there are no reasons given for getting relieved. It is normal,” said Lul Ruai Koang, South Sudan army spokesperson.
South Sudan has been formally at peace since a 2018 deal ended the five-year conflict responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, but violence between rival communities flares frequently.
In March, First Vice President Riek Machar was put under house arrest, stirring fears of renewed conflict.
Information Minister Michael Makuei said the arrest was due to Machar contacting his supporters and “agitating them to rebel against the government with the aim of disrupting peace so that elections are not held and South Sudan goes back to war.”
Machar’s party has previously denied government accusations that it backs the White Army, which clashed with the army in the northeastern town of Nasir in March. In May, South Sudan’s army said it had recaptured the town from the White Army.


Two killed in attack off Yemen as Houthis claim they sank Greek ship

Updated 08 July 2025
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Two killed in attack off Yemen as Houthis claim they sank Greek ship

  • The Liberia-flagged, Greek-operated bulk carrier Eternity C has 22 crew members and armed guards on board
  • Ship was attacked with sea drones and rocket-propelled grenades fired from manned speedboats

ATHENS: Two crew members of the Liberia-flagged, Greek-operated, bulk carrier Eternity C were killed after an attack by sea drones and speedboats off Yemen on Monday evening, Liberia's shipping delegation told a meeting of the UN shipping agency IMO on Tuesday.

The deaths, the first since June 2024, bring the total number of seafarers killed in attacks on vessels in the Red Sea to six.

Monday’s attack 50 nautical miles southwest of the port of Hodeidah was the second strike against merchant vessels in the vital shipping corridor since November 2024, said an official at the European Union´s Operation Aspides, assigned to help protect Red Sea shipping.

The Liberia-flagged, Greek-operated bulk carrier Eternity C with 22 crew members – 21 Filipinos and one Russian – and armed guards on board, was attacked with sea drones and rocket-propelled grenades fired from manned speedboats, sources said.

At least two crew members were seriously injured, its manager, Cosmoship Management, said. The vessel’s bridge was hit and telecommunications were impacted, a company official said.

Maritime security sources said the vessel, which was unladen, has suffered severe damage and is currently listing. The crew was ordered to abandon the ship, but the lifeboats had been destroyed, two sources said.

The ship was adrift, an Aspides official said. At the time of the incident, no warship of the Aspides mission was close to the vessel.

There was no claim of responsibility for the attack, so far.

Earlier on Monday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack on the Greek-operated MV Magic Seas bulk carrier off southwest Yemen. The raid involved gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades from eight skiffs as well as missiles and four uncrewed surface vessels.

The 19 crew were forced to abandon the Liberian-flagged vessel as it was taking on water. They were picked up by a passing ship and have arrived safely in Djibouti, sources said.

The Houthis said they sunk the vessel. But Michael Bodouroglou, a representative of Stem Shipping, one of the ship’s commercial managers, said there was no independent verification.

Growing operational risk

The crew had reported fires at the vessel’s forepeak, in the bow. The engine room and at least two holds were flooded, and there was no electricity.

Aspides had earlier warned of a risk of explosion in the ship’s vicinity.

Since Israel’s war in Gaza against the Palestinian militant group Hamas began in October 2023, the Houthis have been attacking Israel and vessels in the Red Sea in what they say are acts of solidarity with the Palestinians.

Israel has struck Houthi targets in response, launching strikes on Monday for the first time in nearly a month. A US-Houthi ceasefire deal in May did not include Israel.

The latest attacks highlight a growing operational risk to commercial operators whose vessels have called at Israeli ports, Maritime security firm Diaplous said.

Magic Seas was carrying iron and fertilizers from China to Turkiye, a voyage that appeared low-risk as it had nothing to do with Israel, Bodouroglou said, adding that Stem Shipping had received no warning of the attack.

But the fleet of Allseas Marine, Magic Seas’ other commercial manager, had made calls to Israeli ports over the past year, according to analysis by UK-based maritime risk management company Vanguard Tech.

“These factors put the Magic Seas at an extreme risk of being targeted,” said Ellie Shafik, head of intelligence with Vanguard Tech.

The manager of ETERNITY C is also affiliated with vessels that have made calls to Israeli ports, security sources said.

John Xylas, chairman of the dry bulk shipping association Intercargo, said the crew were “innocent people, simply doing their jobs, keeping global trade moving.”

“No one at sea should ever face such violence,” he said.