After US killing of chief, what’s next for Al-Qaeda in Yemen

The combo pix of Qassem Al-Rimi, a suspected chief of Al-Qaeda in Yemen. (AFP)
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Updated 09 February 2020
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After US killing of chief, what’s next for Al-Qaeda in Yemen

  • The US has waged a long-running drone war against the leaders of AQAP, which it considers Al-Qaeda’s most dangerous branch

DUBAI: The US killing of the leader of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in war-torn Yemen raises questions about the militant group’s operations and its future.
President Donald Trump said the US “conducted a counterterrorism operation” that eliminated Qassem Al-Rimi, according to a White House statement released on Thursday.
But what does this mean for AQAP and for Yemen, where a five-year war between the government — backed by a Saudi-led military coalition — and the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels has crippled the country?
Al-Rimi was named AQAP leader after his predecessor, Nasir Al-Wuhayshi, was killed in a US drone strike on Yemen in June 2015.
He was one of the group’s founders in 2009 and its first military commander.
“Al-Rimi’s death is significant,” said Gregory Johnsen, a nonresident fellow at the Sanaa Center think tank.
“However, he was not a good leader for AQAP and since he took over in 2015, the group’s international terrorist wing has atrophied badly.”
Johnsen said the two most likely candidates to succeed Al-Rimi were Khalid Batarfi, reportedly running the group’s external operations, and Saad bin Atef Al-Awlaki, the group’s leader in Yemen’s Shabwa province.
According to Peter Salisbury, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a successor will most likely be announced soon.
But, he added, it will not be “someone with the name brand recognition Al-Rimi had, and certainly not of the stature of his predecessor, Al-Wuhayshi.”
AQAP, along with other militant groups, has flourished in the chaos of the war between the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels.
But analysts say the group’s abilities on the ground have dwindled over the years.
“Al-Rimi’s skills as a military planner will be missed, but AQAP’s ability to operate on the ground in Yemen had already diminished greatly,” said Elisabeth Kendall, a researcher at the University of Oxford.

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AQAP, along with other militant groups, has flourished in the chaos of the war between the Yemeni government and the Iranian-backed Houthi militants.

“In operational terms, its activity peaked in 2017 with over 270 domestic attacks, albeit mostly small scale.”
Johnsen also said that AQAP’s ability on the ground has weakened over the past decade, describing it as “a shadow of its former self.”
AQAP has carried out operations against both the Houthis and government forces as well as sporadic attacks abroad, including on the offices of the French satirical publication Charlie Hebdo in 2015.
Andreas Krieg of King’s College London said Al-Rimi’s killing has a “PR value” for the US but will not affect AQAP’s ground operations.
The killing of Al-Rimi comes after AQAP claimed responsibility for a Dec. 6 shooting at the US Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida, where an officer killed three American sailors.
“It is still unclear how much of a hand AQAP had in directing, as opposed to inspiring, the Pensacola shooting,” Johnsen said.
According to Johnsen, Al-Rimi’s killing “is one more blow” to attacks by the group overseas.
“Prior to the Pensacola attack, the last time AQAP claimed any credit for an overseas attack was in 2015,” he added.
The group’s focus has “shifted onto inspiring rather than directing attacks,” said Kendall.
Salisbury noted that AQAP has not executed a major overseas operation for the past decade.
“Attacks associated with the group have either come from legacy, former operatives or ‘lone wolf’ attacks by people inspired and sometimes in limited contact with the group over the Internet,” he said.
The US has waged a long-running drone war against the leaders of AQAP, which it considers Al-Qaeda’s most dangerous branch.
According to the White House, Al-Rimi’s killing “further degrades AQAP and the global Al-Qaeda movement.”
“It brings us closer to eliminating the threats these groups pose to our national security,” it said.


‘New Syria’ offers historic moment of hope but also threats and uncertainty, says UN chief

Updated 4 sec ago
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‘New Syria’ offers historic moment of hope but also threats and uncertainty, says UN chief

  • Secretary-General Antonia Guterres warned of Daesh threats in parts of the country and called for Israeli airstrikes to stop
  • Progress could unravel ‘if the ongoing situation is not managed carefully by Syrians themselves’ with international support, he adds

NEW YORK CITY: While recent developments in Syria offer a long-awaited opportunity for Syrians to realize their aspirations for freedom “there is a real risk that progress could unravel” if the situation is not managed carefully, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on Thursday.

Long-time dictator Bashar Assad fled the country on Dec. 8 following a swift offensive by a group of rebels. Their operation, which lasted less than two weeks, met little resistance.

Guterres noted that the end of more than five decades of “brutal, dictatorial rule” by the Assad family offers a long-sought opportunity for all Syrians to fulfill the aspirations that sparked their peaceful movement for change in 2011. The slogan that echoed across the country, “The Syrian people are one,” has never been more relevant, he added.

“It holds great promise for a country so rich in diversity, history and culture, along with its deep-rooted traditions of generosity, which I witnessed first-hand as high commissioner for refugees when the Syrian people welcomed millions of displaced Iraqis,” Guterres said.

However, he stressed that “nothing is guaranteed” and warned: “If the ongoing situation is not managed carefully by Syrians themselves, with the support of the international community, there is a real risk that progress could unravel.”

Guterres emphasized that “all communities must be fully integrated into the new Syria,” and “the rights of women and girls must be fully respected.” He also reiterated the importance of ensuring the process is guided by the principles outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

Adopted in 2015, the resolution calls for a ceasefire agreement and political settlement in Syria, and sets out a road map for the country’s transition, including “free and fair” elections.

Although some parts of Syria are relatively stable following the fall of Assad, Guterres warned that the conflict is far from over and civilians continue to be killed, injured and displaced. Daesh remains a threat in some areas, while Israel continues to target the country with extensive airstrikes.

“These are violations of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Guterres said. “They must stop.”

In the Golan Heights, he said, the UN’s Disengagement Observer Force has reported an ongoing Israeli military presence in several locations within the Area of Separation, despite long-standing agreements prohibiting such deployments.

The peacekeeping mission has also observed Israeli personnel and equipment in at least one place inside the Area of Limitation. The 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria stipulates that this area must remain free of military forces.

Guterres called on Israel and Syria to fully comply with the terms of the agreement, which “remains in full force.”

He added: “Let me be clear: There should be no military forces in the Area of Separation other than UN peacekeepers, period. Syria’s sovereignty, territorial unity and integrity must be fully restored, and all acts of aggression must come to an immediate end.”

Neighboring country Turkiye has “a very important role” to play in convincing parties in Syria of the need for inclusive dialogue, Guterres said. However, he also stressed the need to establish a permanent ceasefire in northeastern Syria, and to stem the activities of Daesh in the area.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in the country remains one of the worst in the world, with the recent escalation further exacerbating the needs of people nationwide. Guterres stressed the urgent need to ensure humanitarian and recovery efforts receive adequate funding. The UN’s humanitarian chief has already warned that the appeal for aid to Syria, one of the largest in the world, remains severely underfunded.

Describing the current moment in Syria as one of “hope and history” but also “great uncertainty,” Guterres said: “Some will try to exploit the situation for their own narrow interests. But it is the obligation of the international community to stand with the people of Syria, who have suffered so much.

“Syria’s future must be shaped by its people, for its people, with the support of all of us.”


Putin says fall of Assad not a ‘defeat’ for Russia

Updated 40 min 44 sec ago
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Putin says fall of Assad not a ‘defeat’ for Russia

  • Assad’s departure came over 13 years after crackdown on democracy protests precipitated civil war
  • Russia was Assad’s key backer and swept to his aid in 2015, turning the tide of the conflict in his favor

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the fall of ex-Syrian leader Bashar Assad was not a “defeat” for Russia, claiming Moscow had achieved its goals in the country.
Assad fled to Moscow earlier this month after a shock militant advance ended half a century of rule by the Assad family, marked by repression and allegations of vast human rights abuses and civil war.
His departure came more than 13 years after his crackdown on democracy protests precipitated a civil war.
Russia was Assad’s key backer and had swept to his aid in 2015, turning the tide of the conflict.
“You want to present what is happening in Syria as a defeat for Russia,” Putin said at his annual end-of-year press conference.
“I assure you it is not,” he said, responding to a question from an American journalist.
“We came to Syria 10 years ago so that a terrorist enclave would not be created there like in Afghanistan. On the whole, we have achieved our goal,” Putin said.
The Kremlin leader said he had yet to meet with Assad in Moscow, but planned to do so soon.
“I haven’t yet seen president Assad since his arrival in Moscow but I plan to, I will definitely speak with him,” he said.
Putin was addressing the situation in Syria publicly for the first time since Assad’s fall.
Moscow is keen to secure the fate of two military bases in the country.
The Tartus naval base and Hmeimim air base are Russia’s only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union and have been key to the Kremlin’s activities in Africa and the Middle East.
Putin said there was support for Russia keeping hold of the bases.
“We maintain contacts with all those who control the situation there, with all the countries of the region. An overwhelming majority of them say they are interested in our military bases staying there,” Putin said.
He also said Russia had evacuated 4,000 Iranian soldiers from the country at the request from Tehran.


Syrian girls’ right to schooling unrestricted, new education minister says

Updated 19 December 2024
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Syrian girls’ right to schooling unrestricted, new education minister says

  • New rulers promise equal treatment for all minority groups
  • Education minister assures girls’ right to education remains unchanged
  • Half of Syria’s schools destroyed or damaged, Qadri says

DAMASCUS: Syria will remove all references to the former ruling Baath party from its educational system as of next week but will not otherwise change school curricula or restrict the rights of girls to learn, the country’s new education minister said.
“Education is a red line for the Syrian people, more important than food and water,” Nazir Mohammad Al-Qadri said in an interview from his office in Damascus.
“The right to education is not limited to one specific gender. ... There may be more girls in our schools than boys,” he said.
The secular, pan-Arab nationalist Baath Party governed Syria since a 1963 coup d’etat, seeing education as an important tool for instilling life-long loyalty among the young to the country’s authoritarian ruling system.
President Bashar Assad was toppled on Dec. 8 by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist rebel group that some Syrians fear may seek to implement a conservative form of Islamist governance.
But Qadri’s plans reflect their wider management approach and moderate messaging so far.
Syria has long been seen to have one of the Arab world’s strongest education systems, a reputation that has largely survived 13 years of civil war.
Qadri said religion — both Muslim and Christian — will continue to be taught as a subject in school.
Primary schools will remain mixed between boys and girls, while secondary education will stay largely segregated, he said.
“After primary school, there were always schools for females and schools for males. We won’t change that,” said Qadri, who had taken to his ornately-furnished office so recently that he had not yet procured Syria’s new green, white and black flag.
Syria’s new rulers, who have long-since disavowed their former Al-Qaeda links, have said that all of Syria’s minority groups including Kurds, Christians, Druze and Alawites will be treated equal as the new government focuses on rebuilding.
They face a formidable challenge.
Syria remains under tight Western sanctions.
Entire cities were levelled in 13 years of war that Qadri said had also left about half the country’s 18,000 schools damaged or destroyed.
But the rebels have moved into government fast, extending a hand to former state employees who have shown up to work in droves.
Most of the new ministers are young — in their 30s or 40s — making 54-year-old Qadri among the oldest in government.
Born and raised in Damascus, he was imprisoned by the Assad regime in 2008 on what he said were spurious charges of inciting sectarian strife, preventing him from finishing his bachelor’s degree.
He was released a decade later and fled to northern Idlib, then under the control of HTS, becoming education minister in its Salvation Government in 2022.
He is currently finishing his masters thesis in Arabic language.
With the political and social contours of the new Syrian state still being drawn, Qadri said students would not be tested on their mandatory “nationalist studies” — previously a vehicle for teaching Baathism and Assad family history — this year.


Palestinian health ministry says 4 killed in Israeli West Bank strike

Updated 19 December 2024
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Palestinian health ministry says 4 killed in Israeli West Bank strike

RAMALLAH: The Palestinian health ministry said Thursday that an Israeli air strike on a car killed four Palestinians and wounded three near the occupied West Bank city of Tulkarem.
The ministry announced that the Palestinians were killed “as a result of the (Israeli) bombing of a vehicle in Tulkarem camp,” which the Israeli army did not immediately confirm to AFP.


Turkiye, Iran leaders at Muslim summit in Cairo

Updated 55 min 4 sec ago
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Turkiye, Iran leaders at Muslim summit in Cairo

  • Relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained for decades, but diplomatic contacts have intensified since Cairo became a mediator in the war in Gaza

CAIRO: The leaders of Turkiye and Iran were in Egypt on Thursday for a summit of eight Muslim-majority countries, meeting for the first time since the ouster of Syria’s president Bashar Assad.
Turkiye historically backed the opposition to Assad, while Iran supported his rule.
The gathering of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, also known as the Developing-8, was being held against a backdrop of regional turmoil including the conflict in Gaza, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and unrest in Syria.
In a speech to the summit, Turkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for unity and reconciliation in Syria, urging “the restoration of Syria’s territorial integrity and unity.”
He also voiced hope for “the establishment of a Syria free of terrorism,” where “all religious sects and ethnic groups live side by side in peace.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged action to address the crises in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, saying that it is a “religious, legal and human duty to prevent further harm” to those suffering in these conflict zones.
Pezeshkian, who arrived in Cairo on Wednesday, is the first Iranian president to visit Egypt since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who visited in 2013.
Relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained for decades, but diplomatic contacts have intensified since Cairo became a mediator in the war in Gaza.
Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi visited Egypt in October, while his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty traveled to Tehran in July to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
Ahead of the summit, the Iranian top diplomat said he hoped it would “send a strong message to the world that the Israeli aggressions and violations in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria” would end “immediately.”
Erdogan was in Egypt earlier this year, and discussed with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi economic cooperation as well as regional conflicts.
Established in 1997, the D-8 aims to foster cooperation among member states, spanning regions from Southeast Asia to Africa.
The organization includes Egypt, Turkiye, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia as member states.