Why water scarcity is a security risk for the Middle East

Turkey's 1,200-megawatt Ilisu Dam on the Tigris River in southeastern Anatolia, located 30 kilometers north of the Turkish border with Syria, has been a cause of conflict with Syria and Iraq. (AFP file photo)
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Updated 03 March 2020
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Why water scarcity is a security risk for the Middle East

  • The probability that water scarcity will lead to conflict in the region is 8 percent, says study
  • Water scarcity is more likely to stoke internal unrest than trigger cross-border wars

DUBAI: In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, access to freshwater is a perennial quest.

Most countries have a limited supply of the precious resource, which is also under severe stress due to arid conditions, population growth, poor infrastructure and overexploitation. 

Large expanses of MENA are hot and dry, with only two percent covered by wetlands, so water supply is poor to begin with. To compound the problem, countries are placing increased demands on their limited reserves.

Against this backdrop, a report conducted jointly by Good Judgement, a geopolitical and geo-economic forecasting entity, and the Dubai-based Arab Strategy Forum has tried to find out if water scarcity would heighten future security risks in the region.

The study, which looked at 11 global megatrends and forecasts for the next decade, presented findings by a group of “superforecasters” from around the world, who have proven to be “30 percent more accurate than 4,300 members of the US intelligence community.”

According to the research, the overall probability that water scarcity would act as a pivot point in one or more regional conflicts over the next 10 years was fairly small, at 8 percent.

Kerry Anderson, a political risk consultant, says water concerns in the MENA region are more likely to stoke internal civil unrest and “exacerbate” other issues than cause cross-border conflict.

Describing water scarcity as potentially a “contributing factor in the escalation of hostilities” regionally, the Good Judgement report put the likelihood of a conflict between Jordan and Israel at only 1 percent.

The chances of war between Turkey and Iraq or Egypt and Ethiopia were both put at 3 percent, although the latter was considered to be among the more probable ones.

“(While) Egypt against Ethiopia is the only case where a more powerful downstream country may lose water, the report never says that a conflict may emerge considering the significant drought and deteriorating economic situation in Egypt,” Anderson told Arab News.

With regard to the tensions between Turkey, Iraq and Syria, Anderson said water disputes were unlikely to be the cause of any future conflict involving the three countries.

“Iraq’s government and military are not currently capable of launching the type of war against Turkey that would be necessary to force Turkey to change its policies,” she added.

Anderson also points out that objections by Jordan and Iraq, to what they see as disproportionate extraction of water from shared resources respectively by Israel and Turkey, are unlikely to escalate into a conflict.

“The risk of a war over competing claims might be low, but the risk of water shortages and disputes contributing to political instability, protest movements and economic challenges is far greater.”

For instance, rural families could be forced to leave unproductive farms and migrate to cities, which would contribute to increased social pressures on communities. In combination with corruption, water scarcity could worsen “inequalities,” fueling unrest, Anderson said.

The risks for MENA countries due to water scarcity cannot be overstated. A report released last year by the World Resources Institute (WRI) said 12 of the 17 most water-stressed countries in the world were located in the MENA region.

In the WRI’s “Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas,” Qatar was ranked first, followed by Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Jordan, Libya, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman.

The scale of the challenge facing MENA governments can be gauged from the fact that in 2017, 17 out of 22 Arab League nations had more than half their populations living in urban areas.

Regional experts say the growth of urban areas in MENA countries is inevitable given that rural living was nearly impossible on arid land with marginal environments that could barely support subsistence agriculture.

The combination of increasing populations, especially in the cities, new municipalities and industrial units, rising living standards, and maintenance or expansion of irrigation systems, was putting additional pressure every year on already water-stressed countries.

In the past, the increasing demand on a limited supply of water had sparked strife, but in the future the same phenomenon could be a trigger for more migration and social unrest, according to Middle East observers.

Protests linked to water have repeatedly broken out in Iraq and Iran, and some experts have linked the Arab Spring uprisings to instability caused by droughts and heatwaves.

“There is substantial evidence that extreme, prolonged drought contributed to the causes of the Syrian civil war, partly by prompting a migration from rural areas to cities,” Anderson said.

Waleed Zubari, coordinator of the water resources management program at the College of Graduate Studies in Manama, Bahrain, said close to 1 million people were affected by an extended drought in northeastern Syria between 2006 and 2009.

This mass displacement of people from their farms in search of refuge in cities contributed to the conditions that led to the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, Zubari added.

Competition for scarce water resources exist in Palestine as well, he said, noting that Israel had exercised full control over water resources in the West Bank since 1967, including supplies from the Jordan River and mountain aquifers.

Darfur in western Sudan was another example, according to Zubari, where climate variability, water scarcity and loss of fertile land aggravated the region’s political problems, caused by ethnic tensions, to spark protracted civil war.

“Water is increasingly becoming an additional source of tension in an already unstable region,” he said, pointing out that it was now a national security priority for many Arab countries.

Given that 60 percent of the Middle East’s surface water originates from outside the region and almost all water basins are shared, the lack of management and planning in the distribution of these resources was likely to remain a source of political tensions.

Even so, Zubari added, water scarcity was an unlikely determinant of conflict in the Arab region if the past was any guide. “History also shows that power asymmetry in favor of the upstream or occupying countries is a major factor in avoiding conflict over water instigated by downstream countries.”

Put simply, even if water stress does not cause wars, across the Arab region factors such as population increase, economic growth and climate change will place ever greater strain on limited water resources and confront policy makers with daunting challenges.


Louvre Abu Dhabi invites visitors to embrace spirit of Ramadan with its month-long program

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Louvre Abu Dhabi invites visitors to embrace spirit of Ramadan with its month-long program

  • The temporary ‘Kings and Queens of Africa’ exhibition will remain open until 1 a.m. throughout the holy month
  • The museum is also hosting a series of cultural talks and a diverse selection of pop-up dining options

ABU DHABI: Louvre Abu Dhabi is inviting visitors to experience the warmth and spirituality of Ramadan through a special program during the holy month that includes extended opening hours, immersive cultural talks and a diverse selection of pop-up dining options.

While the permanent galleries will continue to close at the usual time (8:30 p.m. Friday-Sunday and 6:30 p.m. Tuesday-Thursday), the “Kings and Queens of Africa,” a temporary exhibition running until May 25, will remain open until 1 a.m. throughout the month.

This gives visitors an additional opportunity to view the works in an exhibition the museum says reflects its commitment to the celebration of African artistic heritage, including “Projection of Harmony” by renowned South African artist Esther Mahlangu.

The museum, in collaboration with the NYU Abu Dhabi Institute, will also host a series of talks on the subject of Islamic philosophy. Scholars Taneli Kukkonen and Nader Bizri will delve into significant works of Islamic thought, drawing parallels between them and contemporary culture. The discussions will be accompanied by readings in the Hakawati style, an Arabic word that means “storyteller,” led by Lamya Tawfiq.

The first session, “Hayy Ibn Yaqzan and his Castaway Companions,” is on March 8. It will explore author Ibn Tufayl’s 12th-century masterpiece, which laid the foundations for the castaway genre and influenced classics such as Daniel Defoe’s 1719 novel “Robinson Crusoe,” and the 2000 Tom Hanks film “Cast Away.”

The second talk, “The Brethren of Purity and the Enduring Legacy of Animal Fables” on March 15, will examine the influence of Islamic fables on animal-related storytelling traditions worldwide, from the ancient Greek “Aesop’s Fables” to 20th century works such as “The Tale of Peter Rabbit” and “The Hundred and One Dalmatians.”

Visitors will also be able to sample offerings from a number of Ramadan-inspired food pop-ups provided by establishments such as Ethr Cafe, Sky Garden by Ethr Cafe, Aptitude, Fouquet’s, Art Lounge, and Toby’s Estate.

Families visiting the museum during Ramadan and Eid can also participate in interactive workshops, including a “Create Your Own Headdress” event on March 29 and 30.

Meanwhile, Louvre Abu Dhabi has launched season three of its podcast series, “Adventures at the Museum,” which is billed as taking listeners on a journey through art history, storytelling and adventure. New episodes are released every Thursday.


Arab unity on Gaza will help ‘guide the path forward,’ UN chief says ahead of Cairo summit

Updated 39 min 57 sec ago
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Arab unity on Gaza will help ‘guide the path forward,’ UN chief says ahead of Cairo summit

  • Antonio Guterres warns ‘coming days are critical’ amid threat of further destruction
  • ‘Palestinian people must have right to govern themselves, chart their own future,’ Guterres says

NEW YORK: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for the Arab world to show unity ahead of a major summit next week to discuss the rebuilding of Gaza, which he said has become “a nexus of death, displacement, hunger, and disease” following 15 months of Israeli military action in the enclave.
A unified response among Arab nations “will help guide the way forward” in efforts to bring stability to the region, he said.
The UN chief will attend the Extraordinary Summit of the League of Arab States in Cairo next Tuesday.
Speaking ahead of the conference, Guterres reiterated the UN’s rejection of any ethnic cleansing of Palestinians and emphasized the need to establish a unified Palestinian government that enjoys the support of its people.
“There must be no long-term Israeli military presence in Gaza, and any transitional arrangements should aim to achieve a unified Palestinian government,” he said.
Guterres also called for urgent de-escalation in the West Bank, urging an end to settlement expansion and violence against civilians.
The UN secretary-general reiterated his call for a two-state solution, underscoring the need for Israel and Palestine to coexist peacefully in accordance with international law.
“The Palestinian people must have the right to govern themselves, chart their own future, and live in freedom and security,” he said, stressing that the only path to lasting peace is through a negotiated two-state solution with Jerusalem as the capital of both states.
In Cairo, Guterres is expected to outline these key priorities to leaders from across the Arab world, calling for unified action to bring stability to the region.
“Their unified position will help guide the way forward,” he said.
The Cairo summit represents a critical moment for international diplomacy as efforts intensify to secure a lasting resolution to the Gaza crisis and lay the groundwork for future peace in the region, amid a fragile ceasefire.
Since the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, Gaza has experienced unprecedented destruction.
“Hospitals, schools, and water facilities have been destroyed and reduced to rubble,” Guterres said. He warned that “the risk of further destruction looms over the population.”
The UN chief urged all parties involved in the ceasefire and hostage deal to uphold their commitments.
“The parties must spare no effort to avoid a breakdown of this deal,” Guterres said. “The coming days are critical,” he warned, emphasizing the importance of ensuring the safe, dignified, and unconditional release of hostages, alongside the continued flow of humanitarian aid to those in desperate need.
He called for the humanitarian lifeline to remain open and for continued support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.
Since the temporary ceasefire was brokered, humanitarian agencies have managed to scale up operations in Gaza, delivering essential aid, food, water, and medical supplies.
“With the right conditions and access, we can do far more,” Guterres said.
However, the UN chief made it clear that ending the immediate humanitarian crisis is only the first step.
He called for a comprehensive political framework to address Gaza’s long-term recovery, which must be grounded in international law and ensure the preservation of Palestinian sovereignty.
Guterres also called for tangible steps toward peace and stability, based on “clear principles.”
“This means staying true to the bedrock of international law,” he said. “It means preventing any form of ethnic cleansing. It means there should be no long-term Israeli military presence in Gaza.
“It means addressing Israel’s legitimate security concerns. It means accountability for violations of international law.”


Lebanon PM demands ‘full Israeli withdrawal’

Updated 28 min 1 sec ago
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Lebanon PM demands ‘full Israeli withdrawal’

  • Nawaf Salam visits border areas, promises people safe return home
  • Army entrusted with defending homeland, protecting property, PM says

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Friday called for a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the country, and promised residents of border villages a safe return home and reconstruction of their properties.

Salam was speaking during a visit to the border area amid a partial Israel withdrawal.

However, Israeli troops continue to occupy five strategic hills in the region, blocking the road connecting the border areas.

BACKGROUND

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s visit to areas near the border with Israel that suffered wide destruction during the war came two days after his government won a vote of confidence in parliament.

Salam said on Friday that the Lebanese army “is carrying out its responsibilities to the fullest, reinforcing its deployment with determination and resolve to uphold stability in the south and ensure the safe return of our people to their villages and homes.”

Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam visits the border area. (X @nawafasalam)

He said that “the army is the entity in charge of defending Lebanon and accordingly, it should preserve the country’s security, protect its people, and safeguard its sovereignty and the unity and security of its territory.”

After his government won a confidence vote in parliament this week, Salam visited the army’s barracks in Tyre and Marjayoun, as well as Khiam and Nabatieh.

Ministers and Maj. Gen. Hassan Aoude, the acting army commander, accompanied the prime minister.

The visit came hours after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz claimed in a statement that “Israel has received a green light from the US to stay in the buffer zone in southern Lebanon.”

He said that “our forces will stay indefinitely in the buffer zone, south of Lebanon.”

The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the Israeli defense minister’s claims, saying that “the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon clearly stipulates that Israel must withdraw from the south, including the five strategic points.”

Salam was taken to the Benoit Barakat Barracks in Tyre by military helicopter.

The Lebanese PM and his delegation held a meeting at the sector’s headquarters with Brig. Gen. Edgar Lawandos, commander of the southern Litani sector in the Lebanese army.

Salam said that the government “is committed to supporting the Lebanese army, by expanding its manpower, upgrading its equipment and training, and improving service conditions, to enhance its defensive capabilities.”

He also condemned “any attack on UNIFIL,” in light of the Feb. 15 violence on the Beirut Airport road.

Protesters — angered by the denial of landing clearance for an Iranian plane — attacked a UNIFIL convoy heading to the airport, injuring the deputy commander and his escort, who were both taken to the hospital.

Salam said that “firm action” will be taken to arrest and hold those responsible to account.

“We are taking all necessary measures to ensure it does not recur,” he said.

Salam commended UNIFIL’s role as a peacekeeping force in Lebanon and the south since 1978, with “many of its members sacrificing their lives to fulfill its mission.”

He praised UNIFIL’s “close cooperation with the army and Lebanese authorities to implement UN Resolution 1701, to enhance the security and stability of Lebanon and the south.”

On Thursday, the Government Commissioner at the Military Court, Judge Fadi Akiki, charged 20 people, including four detainees and two minors, with involvement in the attack on the UNIFIL convoy.

The charges included “attempted murder of the convoy’s members by burning the vehicle, assaulting the security forces and forming a group to undermine the authority and steal money worth $29,000 that was in the wallet of the UNIFIL deputy commander who was leaving Lebanon and returning to his country at the end of his mission.”

Following his visit to the military barracks, Salam met with a delegation from the border town of Dhayra.

Residents staged a protest outside the barracks to voice their suffering to the prime minister over the Israeli forces’ incursions into their lands, especially the destroyed southern neighborhood.

Salam promised the delegation that ministers will work to ensure “a safe return to your homes as soon as possible, and a commitment to the reconstruction process for the residents to return with dignity.”

He said: “Before receiving the confidence vote, the government started to mobilize all Arab and international support to force the enemy to withdraw from our lands and the so-called five points; There is no real and sustainable stability without Israel’s complete withdrawal.”

From Khiam, where he surveyed the Israeli destruction, Salam said: “We will only accept the complete withdrawal of the enemy from Lebanon, as Israel has repeatedly violated our sovereignty and land.”

In Nabatieh, several protesters criticized the prime minister for failing to thank “the resistance and only expressing gratitude to the army in the south.”

Another protester questioned “the possibility of reclaiming the occupied hills through dialogue.”

Salam’s visit to the south coincided with further Israeli airspace violations over Lebanon, as Hezbollah held funerals for 130 people, including party fighters and civilians killed in Israeli airstrikes during the recent war.

Trucks carried dozens of coffins along the road to the towns of Aitaroun and Aita Al-Shaab on Friday.

Israeli forces stationed at border positions, meanwhile, carried out intensive patrol operations toward the outskirts of Aitaroun ahead of the funerals.

Israeli violations also extended to the Bekaa, with aircraft flying at low altitude over Baalbek and northern Bekaa.

On Thursday, airstrikes targeted a Hezbollah official and another person in a pickup truck in the city of Hermel, killing both.

Later, Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said that one of the victims was “Mohammed Mahdi Ali Shahin, a Hezbollah operative responsible for acquiring combat equipment along the Syrian-Lebanese border since the Israel-Lebanon agreements came into effect.”

He added: “Shahin was one of the key members of Hezbollah’s geographical unit overseeing Lebanon’s Bekaa region, which has recently been focused on transferring combat equipment from Syria to Lebanon.”

 


Israel lobbies US to keep Russian bases in a ‘weak’ Syria, sources say

Updated 28 February 2025
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Israel lobbies US to keep Russian bases in a ‘weak’ Syria, sources say

  • “Israel’s big fear is that Turkiye comes in and protects this new Syrian Islamist order,” said Aron Lund, a fellow at US-based think-tank Century International
  • Syria’s leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa told a group of foreign journalists in December that Damascus did not want conflict with Israel or other countries

BEIRUT/WASHINGTON: Israel is lobbying the United States to keep the Syrian Arab Republic weak and decentralized, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkiye’s growing influence in the country, four sources familiar with the efforts said.
Turkiye’s often fraught ties with Israel have come under severe strain during the Gaza war and Israeli officials have told Washington that Syria’s new Islamist rulers, who are backed by Ankara, pose a threat to Israel’s borders, the sources said.
The lobbying points to a concerted Israeli campaign to influence US policy at a critical juncture for Syria, as the Islamists who ousted Bashar Assad try to stabilize the fractured state and get Washington to lift punishing sanctions.
Israel communicated its views to top US officials during meetings in Washington in February and subsequent meetings in Israel with US Congressional representatives, three US sources and another person familiar with the contacts said.
The main points were also circulated to some senior US officials in an Israeli “white paper,” two of the sources said.
All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to diplomatic sensitivities.
“Israel’s big fear is that Turkiye comes in and protects this new Syrian Islamist order, which then ends up being a base for Hamas and other militants,” said Aron Lund, a fellow at US-based think-tank Century International.
The US State Department and National Security Council did not provide a response to questions for this story. The office of Israel’s prime minister and the foreign ministries in Syria and Turkiye did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
It was not clear to what extent US President Donald Trump’s administration is considering adopting Israel’s proposals, the sources said. It has said little about Syria, leaving uncertainty over both the future of the sanctions and whether US forces deployed in the northeast will remain.
Lund said Israel had a good chance of influencing US thinking, describing the new administration as wildly pro-Israeli. “Syria is barely even on Trump’s radar now. It’s low priority, and there’s a policy void to fill,” he said.

ISRAELI ATTACKS
Israel has publicly declared its mistrust of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist faction that led the campaign that toppled Assad and which emerged from a group that was affiliated to Al-Qaeda until it cut ties in 2016.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel will not tolerate the presence in southern Syria of HTS, or any other forces affiliated with the new rulers, and demanded the territory be demilitarised.
Following Assad’s ouster, Israel carried out extensive airstrikes on Syrian military bases and moved forces into a UN-monitored demilitarised zone within Syria. Earlier this week, Israel struck military sites south of Damascus.
Now, Israel is deeply concerned about Turkiye’s role as a close ally of Syria’s new rulers, three US sources said, describing the messages delivered by Israeli officials.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who leads the Islamist-rooted AK Party, said last year that Islamic countries should form an alliance against what he called “the growing threat of expansionism” from Israel.
Earlier this month, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel was concerned Turkiye was supporting efforts by Iran to rebuild Hezbollah and that Islamist groups in Syria were creating another front against Israel.
Turkiye has said it wants Syria to become stable and pose no threat to its neighbors. It has repeatedly said Israel’s actions in southern Syria were part of its expansionist and invasive policy, and showed Israel did not want regional peace.
To contain Turkiye, Israeli officials have sought to persuade US officials that Russia should keep its Mediterranean naval base in Syria’s Tartus province and its Hmeimim air base in Latakia province, the sources said.
When Israeli officials presented Russia’s continued presence in a positive light in a meeting with US officials, some attendees were surprised, arguing that Turkiye — a NATO member — would be a better guarantor of Israel’s security, two of the US sources said.
Israeli officials were “adamant” that was not the case, the sources said.
Syria’s new leadership is in talks with Russia over the fate of the military bases.

SERIOUS THREAT
Syria’s Islamist-led government has sought to reassure Western and Arab states about its intentions, promising an inclusive Syria and seeking to restore diplomatic ties with governments that shunned Assad.
Syria’s leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa told a group of foreign journalists in December that Damascus did not want conflict with Israel or other countries.
Israeli officials, however, voiced concern to US officials that the new government could pose a serious threat and that Syria’s new armed forces might one day attack, the sources said.
Assad kept the frontier with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights quiet for years despite his alliance with Israel’s arch-foe Iran, which had a dominant role in Syria until his downfall upended the Middle East’s power balance.
Two sources said that in the final weeks of US President Joe Biden’s term, his administration considered offering sanctions relief to Syria’s new leaders in exchange for closing Russia’s two military bases.
Two former US officials under the Biden administration did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The sources said Biden’s team failed to secure a deal before Trump took office on January 20 and that they expected the new US president, who has drawn closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, to be more open to Russia staying.
Israel’s lobbying to keep Syria weak points to a starkly different approach to other US-allied states in the region, notably Saudi Arabia, which said last month it was talking to Washington and Brussels to help lift Western sanctions.
A source in Erdogan’s AK party said Ankara hosted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday in part as a hedge against the uncertainty of the new US policy in Syria, and to balance any Israeli measures there — including with the US — that threaten Turkish interests.


Detained Tunisian opponents demand public trial in ‘plot against state’ case

Updated 28 February 2025
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Detained Tunisian opponents demand public trial in ‘plot against state’ case

  • Around 40 people are facing charges of “conspiracy against internal and external state security” and “belonging a terrorist group“
  • With the trial set to begin on March 4, judicial authorities have scheduled a remote hearing for eight of the defendants

TUNIS: Several jailed Tunisian opposition figures demanded a public trial, their relatives and lawyers said Thursday on their behalf at a press conference.
Around 40 people — including prominent politicians, lawyers, and media personalities — are facing charges of “conspiracy against internal and external state security” and “belonging a terrorist group.”
A number were detained in a wave of arrests in February 2023, after President Kais Saied had dubbed them “terrorists.”
With the trial set to begin on March 4, judicial authorities have scheduled a remote hearing for eight of the defendants, which their lawyers and relatives said was unfair.
They include politician Jawhar Ben Mbarek, Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party leader Abdelhamid Jelassi, and Issam Chebbi, a leader of the opposition National Salvation Front.
“We want a public trial, neither remote nor behind closed doors,” Ben Mbarek wrote in a letter read by his father, leftist activist Ezzeddine Hazgui, at the press briefing in Tunis.
“We are certain of our innocence, and if the regime shuts the courtroom doors to the public, it’s because they are ashamed of their fabricated case,” he added, denouncing what he said was “judicial harassment” against politicians, unionists and activists.
Ridha BelHajj, a former minister also detained, echoed the demand for a transparent hearing.
“Our trial on March 4 must be public, with our physical presence in court, and open to the press and people to guarantee fairness,” he wrote.
Lawyer Dalila Msaddek, from the detainees’ defense committee, said that while many are in custody, some remain free pending trial, while others have fled abroad.
The case has also named Bochra BelHajj Hmida, a former member of parliament and human rights activist now living in France, along with National Salvation Front coalition leader Ahmed Nejib Chebbi and lawyer Ayachi Hammami, both prominent critics of President Kais Saied.