After 9 years of conflict, Iran is the decision-maker in Syria

The town of Afis, in Syria’s Idlib province, has sustained widespread destruction due to heavy fighting and airstrikes by pro-Syrian regime forces. (AFP)
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Updated 17 March 2020
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After 9 years of conflict, Iran is the decision-maker in Syria

  • Foreign players backing the opposition have come to terms with Assad staying in power

LONDON: Almost 118,000 civilian deaths, 6.6 million internally displaced, 5.6 million refugees worldwide, four peace conferences, nine years, one war, one country: Syria.

What started off as peaceful protests against President Bashar Assad quickly escalated into a bloody proxy war involving the US, Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Nine years and hundreds of thousands of deaths later, foreign players backing the opposition have come to terms with Assad staying in power.
But one would not have expected such an outcome in 2013, with most of the country split among anti-Assad groups and Kurdish militias.
That year, then-US President Barack Obama delivered his now-infamous “red line” speech following the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in an attack on the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta. Also that year, Iran deployed 4,000 troops to Syria in support of Assad.
“Without Iran and its proxies, Assad wouldn’t be in power,” Phillip Smyth, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute, told Arab News.
“Iran’s Shiite militias both helped rebuild what was left of the SAA (Syrian Arab Army), allied militias, and provided the bulk of the forces needed to not only retake territory, but hold many strategic areas. Iran’s involvement was the key game-changer for the conflict.”
Now Iran and its proxies — namely its strongest, Hezbollah — run the show, with only one option in mind: Total military victory.
On Nov. 18, 2015, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian said: “If not for Iran’s support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and the efforts of its military advisers, Damascus would have fallen during the first three years of the war.”
Former Syrian Brig. Gen. Ahmed Rahhal told Arab News: “It’s Iran and Hezbollah who are fighting today and making all the political and military decisions.”
He added: “The Assad regime obeys the Iranian military and follows the Iranian approach, and Iran accepts only the military option … Iran is unable to find a solution, but is rather capable of obstructing all solutions.”

KEYNOTES

• March 15, 2011: Start of Syrian uprising.

• May 6, 2011: Hezbollah intervenes in Syria, backing Assad regime.

• June 9, 2013: Iran sends 4,000 troops to Syria to back Assad.

• Aug. 21, 2013: First chemical weapons attack by Assad regime on Eastern Ghouta.

Alongside Hezbollah are Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. and its Quds Force. On Jan. 13, 2020, the Assad regime honored Qassem Soleimani — commander of the Quds Force, who was killed in Iraq on Jan. 3 by a US missile strike — with the “Hero of the Syrian Arab Republic” medal, Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Ahmad Khasm, a 29-year-old human rights activist in northern Syria who was forcibly displaced from southern Idlib, told Arab News: “The loss that I have is a decade of my life. I should’ve had a family by now enjoying a youthful life, learning, and being with my family and friends in our hometown.”
Smyth said: “The conflict, while quite costly for Tehran, has provided benefits in terms of gained experience, and it gave Tehran the first real taste in how to deploy a multinational force under its command.”

(Zouhir AlShimale contributed to this article)


Iraq launches its first national census in nearly four decades

Updated 9 sec ago
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Iraq launches its first national census in nearly four decades

  • The census will be the first to employ advanced technologies for gathering and analyzing data, providing a comprehensive picture of Iraq’s demographic, social, and economic landscape
BAGHDAD: Iraq began its first nationwide population census in decades Wednesday, a step aimed at modernizing data collection and planning in a country long impacted by conflict and political divisions.
The act of counting the population is also contentious. The census is expected to have profound implications for Iraq’s resource distribution, budget allocations and development planning.
Minority groups fear that a documented decline in their numbers will bring decreased political influence and fewer economic benefits in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system.
The count in territories such as Kirkuk, Diyala and Mosul — where control is disputed between the central government in Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish regional government in the north — has drawn intense scrutiny.
Ali Arian Saleh, the executive director of the census at the Ministry of Planning, said agreements on how to conduct the count in the disputed areas were reached in meetings involving Iraq’s prime minister, president and senior officials from the Kurdish region.
“Researchers from all major ethnic groups — Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and Christians — will conduct the census in these areas to ensure fairness,” he said.
The last nationwide census in Iraq was held in 1987. Another one held in 1997 excluded the Kurdish region.
The new census “charts a developmental map for the future and sends a message of stability,” Planning Minister Mohammed Tamim said in a televised address.
The census will be the first to employ advanced technologies for gathering and analyzing data, providing a comprehensive picture of Iraq’s demographic, social, and economic landscape, offiials say. Some 120,000 census workers will survey households across the country, covering approximately 160 housing units each over two days.
The Interior Ministry announced a nationwide curfew during the census period, restricting movement of citizens, vehicles and trains between cities, districts and rural areas, with exceptions for humanitarian cases.
The count will be carried out using the “de jure” method, in which people are counted in their usual area of residence, Saleh said.
That means that people internally displaced by years of war will be counted in the areas where they have since settled, not in their original communities. The census will not include Iraqis residing abroad or those forcibly displaced to other countries.
Saleh estimated Iraq’s population at 44.5 million and said the Kurdish region’s share of the national budget — currently 12 percent — is based on an estimated population of 6 million. The census will also clarify the number of public employees in the region.
By order of Iraq’s federal court, the census excluded questions about ethnicity and sectarian affiliation, focusing solely on broad religious categories such as Muslim and Christian.
“This approach is intended to prevent tensions and ensure the census serves developmental rather than divisive goals,” Saleh said. The census will be monitored by international observers who will travel across Iraq’s provinces to assess the data quality, he said.
Hogr Chato, director of the Irbil-based Public Aid Organization, said the census will reshape the map of political thinking and future decision making.
“Even though some leaders deny it, the data will inevitably have political and economic implications,” he said. “It’s also fair to allocate budgets based on population numbers, as areas with larger populations or those impacted by war need more resources.”
Chato said he believes the delays in conducting the census were not only due to security concerns but also political considerations. “There was data they didn’t want to make public, such as poverty levels in each governorate,” he said.
Ahead of the census, leaders in Iraq’s various communities urged people to be counted.
In Baghdad’s Adhamiyah district, Abdul Wahhab Al-Samarrai, preacher at Imam Abu Hanifa Mosque, urged citizens to cooperate with the census.
“This is a duty for every Muslim to ensure the rights of future generations,” he said in a Friday sermon the week before the count.

UN to vote again on Gaza ceasefire, US plans unclear

Updated 17 min 24 sec ago
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UN to vote again on Gaza ceasefire, US plans unclear

  • The few resolutions that the United States did allow to pass by abstaining stopped short of calling for an unconditional and permanent ceasefire
  • The latest draft of the resolution demands “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in the war between Israel and Hamas

United Nations: The UN Security Council is expected to vote Wednesday on another draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza in its latest attempt to exert pressure to end the war.
But the draft could be blocked by the United States, Israel’s main ally.
The latest draft of the resolution demands “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in the war between Israel and Hamas and “the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.”
The wording has angered Israel and raised fears of a US veto.
Israeli ambassador to the UN Danny Danon has called the text “shameful,” adding: “We cannot allow the UN to tie the hands of the State of Israel from protecting its citizens, and we will not stop fighting until we return all the kidnapped men and women home.”
“For us, it has to be a linkage between a ceasefire and the release of hostages,” said Robert Wood, the deputy US ambassador. “It has been our principle position from the beginning and it still remains.”
The war was triggered by Palestinian group Hamas’s assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, a stunning cross-border raid that resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said the death toll from the resulting war had reached 43,972 people, the majority civilians. The United Nations considers the figures reliable.
Of 251 hostages seized during the October 7 attack, 97 remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Almost all of Gaza’s 2.4 million people have been displaced by the war, which has caused a humanitarian catastrophe.
Since the beginning of the war, the Security Council has struggled to speak with one voice, as the United States used its veto power several times, although Russia and China have as well.
The few resolutions that the United States did allow to pass by abstaining stopped short of calling for an unconditional and permanent ceasefire.
In March, the council called for a temporary ceasefire during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, but this appeal was ignored by the warring parties.
In June, the council pledged support for a multi-stage US ceasefire and hostage release plan that went nowhere.
Some diplomats have expressed hope that following Donald Trump’s election win on November 5, President Joe Biden might be more flexible in the few weeks he has left in power.
They imagined a possible repeat of events in December 2016 when then-president Barack Obama was finishing his second term and the council passed a resolution calling for a halt to Israeli settlement building in the occupied territories, a first since 1979.
The United States refrained from using its veto in this case, a break from traditional US support for Israel on the sensitive issue of settlements.
The draft being voted on Wednesday also calls for “safe and unhindered entry of humanitarian assistance at scale,” including in besieged northern Gaza, and denounces any attempt to starve the Palestinians.
The Palestinian delegation at the UN has suggested this text does not go far enough.
“Gaza’s fate will haunt the world for generations to come,” ambassador Riyad Mansour warned.
He said the only course of action for the council is to call for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire under Chapter 7 of the UN charter.
That chapter allows the council to take steps to enforce its resolutions, such as sanctions, but the latest text makes no reference to this option.


Netanyahu says Israel offering $5 mn reward for each Gaza hostage freed

Updated 20 November 2024
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Netanyahu says Israel offering $5 mn reward for each Gaza hostage freed

  • During Oct. 7, 2023 attack which triggered war in Gaza, Hamas took 251 hostages
  • Of those, 97 are still held in Gaza, including 34 who have been confirmed dead

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel was offering a reward of $5 million to anybody who brings out a hostage held in Gaza.
“Anybody who brings out a hostage will find with us a secure way for them and their family to leave” Gaza, Netanyahu said in a video filmed inside the Palestinian territory, according to his office.
“We will also give them a reward of $5 million for each hostage.”
Wearing a helmet and a bullet-proof jacket, Netanyahu spoke with his back to the Mediterranean in the Netzarim Corridor, Israel’s main military supply route which carves the Gaza Strip in two just south of Gaza City.
“Anyone who dares to do harm to our hostages is considered dead — we will pursue you and we will catch up with you,” he said.
Accompanied by Defense Minister Israel Katz, Netanyahu underlined that one of Israel’s war aims remained that “Hamas does not rule in Gaza.”
“We are also making efforts to locate the hostages and bring them home. We won’t give up. We will continue until we’ve found them all, alive or dead.”
During Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack which triggered the war in Gaza, militants took 251 hostages. Of those, 97 are still held in Gaza, including 34 who have been confirmed dead.


Netanyahu says Israel offering $5 mn reward for each Gaza hostage freed

Updated 20 November 2024
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Netanyahu says Israel offering $5 mn reward for each Gaza hostage freed

  • “Anybody who brings out a hostage will find with us a secure way for them and their family to leave” Gaza, Netanyahu says

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Israel was offering a reward of $5 million to anybody who brings out a hostage held in Gaza.
“Anybody who brings out a hostage will find with us a secure way for them and their family to leave” Gaza, Netanyahu said in a video filmed inside the Palestinian territory, according to his office.
“We will also give them a reward of $5 million for each hostage.”
Wearing a helmet and a bullet-proof jacket, Netanyahu spoke with his back to the Mediterranean in the Netzarim Corridor, Israel’s main military supply route which carves the Gaza Strip in two just south of Gaza City.
“Anyone who dares to do harm to our hostages is considered dead — we will pursue you and we will catch up with you,” he said.
Accompanied by Defense Minister Israel Katz, Netanyahu underlined that one of Israel’s war aims remained that “Hamas does not rule in Gaza.”
“We are also making efforts to locate the hostages and bring them home. We won’t give up. We will continue until we’ve found them all, alive or dead.”
During Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack which triggered the war in Gaza, militants took 251 hostages. Of those, 97 are still held in Gaza, including 34 who have been confirmed dead.


Turkiye’s Erdogan says Israel’s Herzog was denied airspace en route to Azerbaijan

Updated 20 November 2024
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Turkiye’s Erdogan says Israel’s Herzog was denied airspace en route to Azerbaijan

  • “In light of the situation assessment and for security reasons, the President of the State has decided to cancel his trip to the Climate Conference in Azerbaijan,” the Israeli presidency said

ANKARA: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Turkiye refused to allow Israeli President Isaac Herzog to use its airspace to attend the COP climate summit in Azerbaijan, highlighting Ankara’s stance amid tensions with Israel.
“We did not allow the Israeli president to use our airspace to attend the COP summit. We suggested alternative routes and other options,” Erdogan told reporters at the G20 Summit in Brazil.
Herzog ended up canceling the visit.
“In light of the situation assessment and for security reasons, the President of the State has decided to cancel his trip to the Climate Conference in Azerbaijan,” the Israeli presidency said. Israel launched a devastating war against Hamas in Gaza a year ago after the Palestinian Islamist group’s deadly cross-border attack.
Turkiye withdrew its ambassador in Israel for consultations after the Gaza war broke out, but has not officially severed its ties with Israel and its embassy remains open and operational.
“But whether he was able to go or not, I honestly don’t know,” Erdogan said on Herzog’s visit to Baku.
“On certain matters, as Turkiye, we are compelled to take a stand, and we will continue to do so,” he said.