After 9 years of conflict, Iran is the decision-maker in Syria

The town of Afis, in Syria’s Idlib province, has sustained widespread destruction due to heavy fighting and airstrikes by pro-Syrian regime forces. (AFP)
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Updated 17 March 2020
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After 9 years of conflict, Iran is the decision-maker in Syria

  • Foreign players backing the opposition have come to terms with Assad staying in power

LONDON: Almost 118,000 civilian deaths, 6.6 million internally displaced, 5.6 million refugees worldwide, four peace conferences, nine years, one war, one country: Syria.

What started off as peaceful protests against President Bashar Assad quickly escalated into a bloody proxy war involving the US, Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Nine years and hundreds of thousands of deaths later, foreign players backing the opposition have come to terms with Assad staying in power.
But one would not have expected such an outcome in 2013, with most of the country split among anti-Assad groups and Kurdish militias.
That year, then-US President Barack Obama delivered his now-infamous “red line” speech following the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in an attack on the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta. Also that year, Iran deployed 4,000 troops to Syria in support of Assad.
“Without Iran and its proxies, Assad wouldn’t be in power,” Phillip Smyth, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute, told Arab News.
“Iran’s Shiite militias both helped rebuild what was left of the SAA (Syrian Arab Army), allied militias, and provided the bulk of the forces needed to not only retake territory, but hold many strategic areas. Iran’s involvement was the key game-changer for the conflict.”
Now Iran and its proxies — namely its strongest, Hezbollah — run the show, with only one option in mind: Total military victory.
On Nov. 18, 2015, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian said: “If not for Iran’s support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and the efforts of its military advisers, Damascus would have fallen during the first three years of the war.”
Former Syrian Brig. Gen. Ahmed Rahhal told Arab News: “It’s Iran and Hezbollah who are fighting today and making all the political and military decisions.”
He added: “The Assad regime obeys the Iranian military and follows the Iranian approach, and Iran accepts only the military option … Iran is unable to find a solution, but is rather capable of obstructing all solutions.”

KEYNOTES

• March 15, 2011: Start of Syrian uprising.

• May 6, 2011: Hezbollah intervenes in Syria, backing Assad regime.

• June 9, 2013: Iran sends 4,000 troops to Syria to back Assad.

• Aug. 21, 2013: First chemical weapons attack by Assad regime on Eastern Ghouta.

Alongside Hezbollah are Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. and its Quds Force. On Jan. 13, 2020, the Assad regime honored Qassem Soleimani — commander of the Quds Force, who was killed in Iraq on Jan. 3 by a US missile strike — with the “Hero of the Syrian Arab Republic” medal, Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Ahmad Khasm, a 29-year-old human rights activist in northern Syria who was forcibly displaced from southern Idlib, told Arab News: “The loss that I have is a decade of my life. I should’ve had a family by now enjoying a youthful life, learning, and being with my family and friends in our hometown.”
Smyth said: “The conflict, while quite costly for Tehran, has provided benefits in terms of gained experience, and it gave Tehran the first real taste in how to deploy a multinational force under its command.”

(Zouhir AlShimale contributed to this article)


Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza as hospital in north of the region makes distress call

Updated 6 sec ago
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Israeli strikes kill 15 in Gaza as hospital in north of the region makes distress call

  • Palestinian officials say Israeli forces kill 15 in Gaza
  • Palestinian civil emergency says one staffer killed in air strike
CAIRO: Israeli forces killed at least 15 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, including a rescue worker, health officials said, as tanks deepened their incursion in the area and blew up homes, according to residents.
Medics said at least 12 people were killed in an Israeli strike on a house in the area of Jabalia, in northern Gaza, earlier on Wednesday. They said at least 10 people remained missing as rescue operations continued. Another man was killed in tank shelling nearby, they said.
In the Sabra suburb of Gaza City, the Palestinian civil emergency said an Israeli air strike targeted one of their teams during a rescue operation, killing one staff and wounding three others.
The death raised the number of civil emergency service members killed since Oct 7, 2023, to 87, it said.
There was no immediate Israeli comment on the two incidents.
Adding to the challenges facing the health care system in north Gaza areas, the civil emergency service said their vehicles were hardly operational because of shortages of fuel and equipment, citing Israel’s continued refusal to allow them to bring the needed supplies.
In Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, medics said one man was killed and others wounded in an Israeli air strike on the eastern territory of the city.
Residents in Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun, where the army has operated since early last month, said forces blew up dozens of houses in the three areas, adding to fears Israel was seeking to clear residents to create a buffer zone, something Israel denies.
Israel said it sent forces into the two towns and refugee camp to fight Hamas militants launching attacks and to prevent them from regrouping. It said it had killed hundreds of them since Oct 5.
Hamas and the Islamic Jihad armed wing claimed they killed many Israeli soldiers in anti-tank and mortar fire as well as ambushes by explosive devices during the same period.
Hussam Abu Safiya, the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the north of the enclave, said the hospital came under Israeli fire on Tuesday.
“The health care system is still operating under extremely harsh conditions. Following the arrest of 45 members of the medical and surgical staff and the denial of entry to a replacement team, we are now losing wounded patients daily who could have survived if resources were available,” said Abu Safiya.
“Unfortunately, food and water are not allowed to enter, and not even a single ambulance is permitted access to the north. Yesterday, the hospital was bombed across all its departments without warning, as we were trying to save an injured person in the intensive care unit,” he added.
Speaking during a visit to Gaza on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hamas would not rule the Palestinian enclave after the war had ended and that Israel had destroyed the Islamist group’s military capabilities.
Netanyahu also said Israel had not given up trying to locate the 101 remaining hostages believed to be still in the enclave and he offered a $5 million reward for the return of each one.
Qatar, a key ceasefire mediator alongside Egypt, said it informed Hamas and Israel it will stall its mediation efforts unless the two warring parties showed “willingness and seriousness” to reach a deal.
Hamas wants a deal that ends the war, while Netanyahu vowed the war can only end once Hamas is eradicated.
The 2023 attack on Israel, which shattered Israel’s aura of invincibility, marked the country’s bloodiest day in its history, with 1,200 people killed and over 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel responded with its most destructive offensive in Gaza, killing nearly 44,000 people and wounding 103,898, according to the Gaza health ministry, and turning the enclave into a wasteland of rubble with millions desperate for food, fuel, water and sanitation.

France says window of opportunity open for Lebanon ceasefire

Updated 12 min 17 sec ago
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France says window of opportunity open for Lebanon ceasefire

PARIS: France’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that US-led efforts for a truce between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon had created the chance for a lasting ceasefire and he called on both sides to accept a deal on the table.
“There is a window of opportunity that’s opening for a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon that would allow the return of those displaced, ensure the sovereignty of Lebanon and the security of Israel,” Jean-Noel Barrot told Europe 1 radio.
“I call on all sides with whom we are in close contact to seize this window.” 


Iran offers to cap sensitive uranium stock as IAEA resolution looms

Updated 42 min 15 sec ago
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Iran offers to cap sensitive uranium stock as IAEA resolution looms

  • Tehran has enough material at up to 60 percent purity for four bombs
  • Offer conditional on no resolution against Iran, diplomats say

VIENNA: Iran has tried in vain to prevent a Western push for a resolution against it at the UN nuclear watchdog’s board meeting by offering to cap its stock of uranium just shy of weapons grade, the watchdog and diplomats said on Tuesday.
One of two confidential International Atomic Energy Agency reports to member states, both seen by Reuters, said Iran had offered not to expand its stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent purity, near the roughly 90 percent of weapons grade, and had made preparations to do that.
The offer is conditional, however, on Western powers abandoning their push for a resolution against Iran at this week’s quarterly meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors over its lack of cooperation with the IAEA, diplomats said, adding that the push was continuing regardless.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his French counterpart Jean-Noel Barrot that the push from France, Germany and Britain to submit a resolution against Tehran would “complicate matters” and contradict the “positive atmosphere created between Iran and the IAEA,” the Iranian foreign ministry said on Wednesday.
During IAEA chief Rafael Grossi’s trip to Iran last week, “the possibility of Iran not further expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 percent U-235 was discussed,” read one of the two quarterly IAEA reports.
It added that the IAEA had verified Iran had “begun implementation of preparatory measures.” A senior diplomat added that the pace of enrichment to that level had slowed, a step necessary before stopping.
Western diplomats dismissed Iran’s overture as yet another last-minute attempt to avoid censure at a board meeting, much like a vague pledge of deeper cooperation with the IAEA in March of last year that was never fully implemented.
“Stopping enriching to 60 percent, great, they shouldn’t be doing that in the first place as we all know there’s no credible civilian use for the 60 percent,” one Western diplomat said, adding: “It’s something they could switch back on again easily.”
Iran’s offer was to cap the stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent at around 185 kg, or the amount it had two days ago, a senior diplomat said. That is enough in principle, if enriched further, for four nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons.
The report said Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent had grown by 17.6 kg in the past quarter to 182.3 kg as of Oct. 26, also enough for four weapons by that measure.

Inspectors
The second report said Iran had also agreed to consider allowing four more “experienced inspectors” to work in Iran after it barred most of the IAEA’s inspectors who are experts in enrichment last year in what the IAEA called a “very serious blow” to its ability to do its job properly in Iran.
Diplomats said they could not be the same inspectors that were barred.
The reports were delayed by Grossi’s trip, during which he hoped to persuade Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian to end a standoff with the IAEA over long-running issues like unexplained uranium traces at undeclared sites and extending IAEA oversight to more areas.
The draft resolution backed by Britain, France, Germany and the United States condemning Iran for its poor cooperation with the IAEA would also task the IAEA with issuing a “comprehensive report” on Iran’s nuclear activities, diplomats said.
There is little doubt the board will pass the resolution, due to be formally submitted on Tuesday evening for a vote later this week. The last resolution against Iran was in June. Only Russia and China opposed it.
The aim is to pressure Iran to return to the negotiating table to agree fresh restrictions on its nuclear activities since a 2015 deal with far-ranging curbs fell apart. Although most of its terms have been broken, the deal’s “termination day” formally lifting them is in October of next year.
It is the last quarterly board meeting before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Trump pulled the United States out of the nuclear deal in 2018, which prompted its unraveling. It is far from clear if he would back talks with Iran, having pledged instead to again take a more confrontational approach and align Washington even more closely with Iran’s arch-foe Israel, which opposed the deal.


Iraq launches its first national census in nearly four decades

Updated 20 November 2024
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Iraq launches its first national census in nearly four decades

  • The census will be the first to employ advanced technologies for gathering and analyzing data, providing a comprehensive picture of Iraq’s demographic, social, and economic landscape

BAGHDAD: Iraq began its first nationwide population census in decades Wednesday, a step aimed at modernizing data collection and planning in a country long impacted by conflict and political divisions.
The act of counting the population is also contentious. The census is expected to have profound implications for Iraq’s resource distribution, budget allocations and development planning.
Minority groups fear that a documented decline in their numbers will bring decreased political influence and fewer economic benefits in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system.
The count in territories such as Kirkuk, Diyala and Mosul — where control is disputed between the central government in Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdish regional government in the north — has drawn intense scrutiny.
Ali Arian Saleh, the executive director of the census at the Ministry of Planning, said agreements on how to conduct the count in the disputed areas were reached in meetings involving Iraq’s prime minister, president and senior officials from the Kurdish region.
“Researchers from all major ethnic groups — Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and Christians — will conduct the census in these areas to ensure fairness,” he said.
The last nationwide census in Iraq was held in 1987. Another one held in 1997 excluded the Kurdish region.
The new census “charts a developmental map for the future and sends a message of stability,” Planning Minister Mohammed Tamim said in a televised address.
The census will be the first to employ advanced technologies for gathering and analyzing data, providing a comprehensive picture of Iraq’s demographic, social, and economic landscape, offiials say. Some 120,000 census workers will survey households across the country, covering approximately 160 housing units each over two days.
The Interior Ministry announced a nationwide curfew during the census period, restricting movement of citizens, vehicles and trains between cities, districts and rural areas, with exceptions for humanitarian cases.
The count will be carried out using the “de jure” method, in which people are counted in their usual area of residence, Saleh said.
That means that people internally displaced by years of war will be counted in the areas where they have since settled, not in their original communities. The census will not include Iraqis residing abroad or those forcibly displaced to other countries.
Saleh estimated Iraq’s population at 44.5 million and said the Kurdish region’s share of the national budget — currently 12 percent — is based on an estimated population of 6 million. The census will also clarify the number of public employees in the region.
By order of Iraq’s federal court, the census excluded questions about ethnicity and sectarian affiliation, focusing solely on broad religious categories such as Muslim and Christian.
“This approach is intended to prevent tensions and ensure the census serves developmental rather than divisive goals,” Saleh said. The census will be monitored by international observers who will travel across Iraq’s provinces to assess the data quality, he said.
Hogr Chato, director of the Irbil-based Public Aid Organization, said the census will reshape the map of political thinking and future decision making.
“Even though some leaders deny it, the data will inevitably have political and economic implications,” he said. “It’s also fair to allocate budgets based on population numbers, as areas with larger populations or those impacted by war need more resources.”
Chato said he believes the delays in conducting the census were not only due to security concerns but also political considerations. “There was data they didn’t want to make public, such as poverty levels in each governorate,” he said.
Ahead of the census, leaders in Iraq’s various communities urged people to be counted.
In Baghdad’s Adhamiyah district, Abdul Wahhab Al-Samarrai, preacher at Imam Abu Hanifa Mosque, urged citizens to cooperate with the census.
“This is a duty for every Muslim to ensure the rights of future generations,” he said in a Friday sermon the week before the count.


UN to vote again on Gaza ceasefire, US plans unclear

Updated 20 November 2024
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UN to vote again on Gaza ceasefire, US plans unclear

  • The few resolutions that the United States did allow to pass by abstaining stopped short of calling for an unconditional and permanent ceasefire
  • The latest draft of the resolution demands “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in the war between Israel and Hamas

United Nations: The UN Security Council is expected to vote Wednesday on another draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza in its latest attempt to exert pressure to end the war.
But the draft could be blocked by the United States, Israel’s main ally.
The latest draft of the resolution demands “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in the war between Israel and Hamas and “the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.”
The wording has angered Israel and raised fears of a US veto.
Israeli ambassador to the UN Danny Danon has called the text “shameful,” adding: “We cannot allow the UN to tie the hands of the State of Israel from protecting its citizens, and we will not stop fighting until we return all the kidnapped men and women home.”
“For us, it has to be a linkage between a ceasefire and the release of hostages,” said Robert Wood, the deputy US ambassador. “It has been our principle position from the beginning and it still remains.”
The war was triggered by Palestinian group Hamas’s assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, a stunning cross-border raid that resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said the death toll from the resulting war had reached 43,972 people, the majority civilians. The United Nations considers the figures reliable.
Of 251 hostages seized during the October 7 attack, 97 remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Almost all of Gaza’s 2.4 million people have been displaced by the war, which has caused a humanitarian catastrophe.
Since the beginning of the war, the Security Council has struggled to speak with one voice, as the United States used its veto power several times, although Russia and China have as well.
The few resolutions that the United States did allow to pass by abstaining stopped short of calling for an unconditional and permanent ceasefire.
In March, the council called for a temporary ceasefire during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, but this appeal was ignored by the warring parties.
In June, the council pledged support for a multi-stage US ceasefire and hostage release plan that went nowhere.
Some diplomats have expressed hope that following Donald Trump’s election win on November 5, President Joe Biden might be more flexible in the few weeks he has left in power.
They imagined a possible repeat of events in December 2016 when then-president Barack Obama was finishing his second term and the council passed a resolution calling for a halt to Israeli settlement building in the occupied territories, a first since 1979.
The United States refrained from using its veto in this case, a break from traditional US support for Israel on the sensitive issue of settlements.
The draft being voted on Wednesday also calls for “safe and unhindered entry of humanitarian assistance at scale,” including in besieged northern Gaza, and denounces any attempt to starve the Palestinians.
The Palestinian delegation at the UN has suggested this text does not go far enough.
“Gaza’s fate will haunt the world for generations to come,” ambassador Riyad Mansour warned.
He said the only course of action for the council is to call for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire under Chapter 7 of the UN charter.
That chapter allows the council to take steps to enforce its resolutions, such as sanctions, but the latest text makes no reference to this option.