Coronavirus outbreak compounds Iraq’s perfect storm of crises

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Anti-government demonstrations erupted in Baghdad on Oct. 1 over a lack of jobs, poor public services and corruption. Protesters have long-demanded a snap election, putting added pressure on the beleaguered government. (AFP)
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Updated 30 March 2020
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Coronavirus outbreak compounds Iraq’s perfect storm of crises

  • Rising cases puts weak healthcare system under pressure amid political turmoil and economic uncertainty
  • More than 500 infections and at least 40 deaths have been reported so far in different governorates

ERBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: As Iraq faces several severe crises simultaneously, some see the makings of a perfect storm that could prove too much for Iraq’s dysfunctional government to handle.

An unchecked outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) could prove the proverbial last straw for a country grappling with political turmoil, dwindling oil revenues, deteriorating government services and geopolitical skirmishing.

“Iraq is on the cusp of melting down,” Nicholas Heras, the Middle East Portfolio Manager at The Institute for the Study of War, told Arab News.

“The Iraqi state institutions were already collapsing before the fall in oil prices, and Iraq’s health infrastructure is too much in shambles to handle a big surge in COVID-19 cases.”

The country had reported 506 cinfirmed cases and 42 deaths as of March 29.

Heras attributes Iraq’s particular vulnerability to these crises to the rampant corruption that has prevailed in the country’s post-2003 political establishment.

“Iraq is on the verge of being a failed state,” he said.

The fall in the international price of oil will hit the Iraqi economy hard. Iraq depends on its oil revenues to fund its bloated public sector payroll, which many Iraqis rely upon for their livelihood.

The steep decline in the price of oil means it will not be able to do that.

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In Numbers

13 Iraq’s Fragile States Index rank (out of 178)

5.5% Health expenditure as fraction of GDP

27 Probability of dying under 5 years (per 1,000 births)

68 Life expectancy at birth (Male)

72 Life expectancy at birth (Female)

This closely coincided with another series of crises that have afflicted this country in the first three months of this decade alone.

Iraqis mounted an unprecedented six-month-long protest campaign that began last October against government corruption that has been endemic in the post-2003 political order.

Furthermore, political disputes have left the country without a prime minister since Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigned four months ago amid pressure from protesters.

Three weeks ago, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi was nominated but failed to secure approval from parliament and was rejected by the protest movement.

Adnan al-Zurfi, former governor of Najaf, is the present prime minister-designate but faces stiff opposition from Iran-backed factions in the Iraqi parliament.

Joel Wing, an Iraq analyst and author of the Musings on Iraq blog, also believes that Iraq is facing a very severe set of crises which he believes spell disaster for the troubled country.

“On the political front, the ruling parties have been unable to agree upon a new prime minister which leaves the government completely in limbo,” he said.

“There is no leadership when that is exactly what the nation needs.”

The collapse in oil prices not only means that the Iraqi government will be unable to pay public sector salaries but is also incapable of meeting other basic costs.

“Because of the government crisis, there is no planning going on for this situation,” Wing said.

“Instead, you get people like the Central Bank chief saying everything is fine, and parliament is sitting on the draft 2020 budget.”

On top of this, Iraq also has to deal with the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Wing echoed Heras when he pointed out that Baghdad lacks any way of dealing with it, given the present political and economic situation.

Even if it does have a plan, he added, it might well lack the money to implement it.

“This is a perfect storm which the country will find it very hard to pull itself out of, especially because all three issues are interconnected,” he said.

Aside from Daesh remnants still operating on its soil and continuing to pose a security threat, Iraq would likely become a major battlefield if war breaks out between the US and Iran.

The US-Iran standoff in Iraq has shown worrying signs of boiling over into open conflict in recent months.




A purpose-built sealed hospital bed built by a resident of Iraq's southern city of Basra to isolate COVID-19 coronavirus disease patients. (Photo by Hussein FALEH / AFP)

After the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah Iraqi militia killed a US contractor in a rocket attack in late December, the US retaliated, killing several members of the group’s militia in airstrikes.

Then, on Jan. 8, the US assassinated both Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ extraterritorial Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Kataib Hezbollah’s commander, in a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport.

Iran responded with missile strikes on two US bases, one in Anbar and the other in Iraqi Kurdistan, a few days later, leaving several US troops with brain injuries.

The US did not respond.

Calls for the expulsion of US troops from Iraq intensified by Iran-backed factions in Iraq’s parliament and other Iraqis who fear their country becoming a bloody battlefield in the US-Iran proxy war.

On March 11, Iraqi militia rocket attacks again struck a base with US personnel – killing two American troops and one British troop – and the US once again retaliated by bombing a Kataib Hezbollah target.

However, that airstrike did not seem to inflict any casualties or significant damage against the group.




An Iraqi Civil Defense worker disinfects the streets of Sadr City in Baghdad on March 24, 2020 as a precaution against the coronavirus. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)

More tit-for-tat exchanges could occur in the near future, which would likely make the situation in Iraq even more volatile.

Lawk Ghafuri, a reporter on Iraqi affairs for the Kurdish news agency Rudaw, argues that the US-Iran tensions in Iraq constitute the most serious crisis facing Iraq today.

“US-Iran tensions are here to stay, as we now see new Iranian-backed groups are rising in Iraq,” Ghafuri told Arab News.

He noted that the US recently began to reposition its troops in Iraq so they can deal with the increasingly deadly threat of rocket attacks from these groups more adequately.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus outbreak is likely to affect Iraq more seriously in the near future.

“From today onward, the coronavirus will also worsen in Iraq as it did in Iran because people are ignoring the threats of this virus,” Ghafuri said.

Turning a blind eye to government restrictions, Shiite pilgrims visited the shrine of Imam Musa Kazim on March 21, sparking fears that the virus will spread more rapidly in the coming days and weeks.

Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, notes that the multiple crises Iraq face today put the country in a “uniquely precarious position.”

“If the post-2003 Iraqi state is going to give way, now is the moment,” he told Arab News.

That being said, Orton also believes that there is still a chance that “the centre will hold” since the protest movement has been significantly undermined by Iranian-backed paramilitaries and the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, relieving that primary source of domestic pressure on the Iraqi government.




An Iraqi woman wearing a mask against COVID-19 sells vegetables in the streets of Sadr City in Baghdad on March 24, 2020. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)

He also doubts that the US is seriously contesting Iranian power in Iraq despite Soleimani’s assassination, which he said it was “an exception” to US President Donald Trump’s rule of not forcibly combating “Iranian imperialism” in Iraq.

“A US-Iran contest for Baghdad could be messy for the system; unhindered Iranian dominance has a short-term systemic ‘stability’, even as it means greater corruption and repression that will surely re-energize the protest movement at some point in the future,” Orton said.

The inherent failures in Iraq’s post-2003 political system may bring about its downfall as it is failing to meet the most fundamental needs of the Iraqi people.

Wing explained that this system mainly consisted of elites who had a greater interest in enriching themselves through the monopolization of state resources.

These elites were able to retain their hold on power by creating patronage networks that they provided lucrative contracts and government jobs to in return for support and loyalty.

“The oil wealth also allowed the ruling parties not to be responsive to the public because it didn’t need it for taxes even though the country has a democratic system,” he said.

“Instead, the elite felt that the people should be dependent upon them because they controlled the state and jobs.”

This arrangement may well be unraveling since the government can no longer generate enough oil revenue to pay its employees.

Wing also noted that this comes as “it is being called on to deal with the public’s health when it has never shown any real interest in the people’s demands, and the parties have become so divided they can’t even decide who will rule.”

If the post-2003 political order finally does implode it’s unclear what’s in store for Iraq in the not-too-distant future.


Cholera spreads to 13 states in Sudan, including Darfur

This picture shows the destruction on the grounds of a hospital in Khartoum on April 28, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 6 min 6 sec ago
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Cholera spreads to 13 states in Sudan, including Darfur

  • Funding cuts create overcrowded and unsanitary conditions that increase risks, WHO official warns

GENEVA: The World Health Organization warned on Friday that cholera cases in Sudan are set to rise and could spread to neighboring countries, including Chad, which hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees from Sudan’s civil war in crowded conditions.

The more than two-year-old war between the Sudanese army — which took full control of Khartoum state this week — and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has spread hunger and disease and destroyed most health facilities. Drone attacks in recent weeks have interrupted electricity and water supplies in the capital, Khartoum, driving up cases there.

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Dr. Shible Sahbani, WHO Representative for Sudan, called for humanitarian corridors and temporary ceasefires to allow mass vaccination campaigns against cholera and other disease outbreaks, such as Dengue fever and malaria.

“Our concern is that cholera is spreading,” Dr. Shible Sahbani, WHO Representative for Sudan, said in Geneva by video link from Port Sudan.
He said that cholera had reached 13 states in Sudan, including North and South Darfur, which border Chad, and that 1,854 people had already died in the latest wave as the dangerous rainy season sets in.
“We assume that if we don’t invest in the prevention measures, in surveillance, in the early warning system, in vaccination and in educating the population, for sure, the neighboring countries, but not only that, it can maybe spread to the sub-region,” he said.
He called for humanitarian corridors and temporary ceasefires to allow mass vaccination campaigns against cholera and other disease outbreaks, such as Dengue fever and malaria.
Cholera, a severe, potentially fatal diarrheal disease, spreads quickly when sewage and drinking water are not treated adequately.
Sahbani said that this posed a high risk for Sudanese refugees, including some who had survived attacks on a displacement camp in Darfur, and who are living in cramped, makeshift border sites on the Chadian side of the border.
“In overcrowded, unsanitary conditions, a potential outbreak could be devastating,” said François Batalingaya, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Chad, at the same briefing, describing the conditions for some 300,000 people stranded there with few aid services due to funding shortages.
The disease has not yet been confirmed in Chad, although a WHO spokesperson said that suspected cases had been reported in Geneina, Sudan, just 10 km away.
Sahbani also said that disease surveillance was low on the Libyan border and that it could possibly spread there.
Case fatality rates have fallen in recent weeks in and around the capital, Khartoum, thanks to an oral cholera vaccination campaign that started this month, Sahbani said.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said Sudan had become a grim example of impunity and the world’s indifference.
Fletcher called on “all with influence” to do more to safeguard civilians and to enable humanitarian aid to reach millions in the war-shattered country.
Despite repeated international pledges to protect Sudan’s people, “their country has become a grim example of twin themes of this moment: indifference and impunity,” he said in a statement.
Fletcher, the UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, underlined that half of Sudan’s population, some 30 million people, need lifesaving aid in the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.
“Indiscriminate shelling, drone attacks, and other air strikes kill, injure, and displace people in staggering numbers. The health system has been smashed to pieces, with cholera, measles, and other diseases spreading,” he said.
The human cost of the war, including “horrific” sexual violence, has been repeatedly condemned, “but talk has not translated into real protection for civilians or safe, unimpeded and sustained access for humanitarians,” he said.
“Where is the accountability? Where is the funding?“

 


UN conference for two-state solution postponed, Macron says

Updated 13 June 2025
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UN conference for two-state solution postponed, Macron says

  • Postponed for logistical reasons as members of Palestinian Authority could not travel to New York

PARIS: President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that a United Nations conference co-hosted between France and Saudi Arabia to work toward a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians has been postponed after Israel launched a military attack on Iran.

Macron told reporters that the conference, which had been planned for June 17-20, had been postponed for logistical reasons as members of the Palestinian Authority could not travel to New York and that it would be re-scheduled as soon as possible.

“While we have to postpone this conference for logistical and security reasons, it will take place as soon as possible,” Macron said.


Activists stopped in Libya and Egypt ahead of planned march on Gaza

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Activists stopped in Libya and Egypt ahead of planned march on Gaza

  • Organizers on Friday said authorities confiscated the passports of 40 activists at what they called a “toll booth-turned-checkpoint” being patrolled by riot gear-clad officers and armored vehicles

MOROCCO: Egyptian authorities detained more activists planning to march to Gaza in protest of restrictions on aid reaching the territory, while security forces in eastern Libya blocked a convoy of activists en route to meet them.
Demonstrators from 80 countries planned to march to Egypt’s border with Gaza to spotlight the deepening humanitarian crises facing Palestinians since Israel began blocking aid trucks from entering the coastal enclave in March.
Israel slightly eased restrictions last month, allowing limited aid in, but experts warn the measures fall far short.
The Global March on Gaza was slated to be among the largest demonstrations of its kind in recent years, coinciding with other efforts, including a boat carrying activists and aid that was intercepted by Israel’s military while on its way to Gaza earlier this week.

BACKGROUND

Friday’s detentions come after hundreds arriving in Cairo were earlier detained and deported to their home countries in Europe and North Africa.

Organizers on Friday said authorities confiscated the passports of 40 activists at what they called a “toll booth-turned-checkpoint” being patrolled by riot gear-clad officers and armored vehicles.
Others were detained at hotels.
The group’s spokespeople urged officials from the activists’ home countries to push Egypt to release their citizens.
Friday’s detentions come after hundreds arriving in Cairo were earlier detained and deported to their home countries in Europe and North Africa.
Before authorities confiscated their passports, the activists said they planned to gather at a campsite on the road to the Sinai to prepare for Sunday’s march.
They said authorities had not yet granted them authorization to travel through the Sinai, which Egypt considers a highly sensitive area.
“We continue to urge the Egyptian government to permit this peaceful march, which aligns with Egypt’s own stated commitment to restoring stability at its border and addressing the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza,” the activists said in a statement.
As activists at the checkpoint languished in the heat, Hicham El-Ghaoui, one of the group’s spokespeople, said they would refrain from demonstrating until they were clear on whether Egypt would authorize their protest.
The planned demonstrations cast an uncomfortable spotlight on Egypt, one of the Arab countries that has cracked down on pro-Palestinian activists even as it publicly condemns aid restrictions and calls for an end to the war.
The government has arrested and charged 186 activists with threatening state security since the war began, according to the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights.
Many of them said they were protesting peacefully and collecting donations for Gaza.
Still, the severity of the crackdown surprised European activists.
Antonietta Chiodo, who traveled to Cairo from Italy, said those awaiting further instruction had been detained, interrogated, treated harshly by Egyptian authorities, or deported.
Alexis Deswaef, a Belgian human rights lawyer, said he woke up to dozens of security vehicles packed with uniformed officers surrounding Talat Harb Square, where activists had found hotels.
Members of his group snuck out of the lobby as security entered, asking an officer for assistance booking taxis to the Pyramids of Giza, where they’ve been since.
“I am so surprised to see the Egyptians doing the dirty work of Israel,” he said from the Pyramids.
He hoped there would be too many activists outside Cairo at the new meeting point for Egyptian authorities to arrest en masse.
In a divided Libya, Egypt-backed authorities stop a convoy
Meanwhile, an aid convoy traveling overland from Algeria picked up new participants along the route in Tunisia and Libya but was stopped in the city of Sirte, about 940 km from the Libya-Egypt border.
Organizers of the overland convoy said late Thursday night they had been stopped by authorities governing eastern Libya, which has for years been divided between dueling factions.
The convoy was allowed to cross from Tunisia to Libya but was halted near the front line.
The Benghazi-based government urged activists to “engage in proper coordination with the official Libyan authorities through legal and diplomatic channels to ensure the safety of all participants and uphold the principles of solidarity with the Palestinian people.”
It said they should return to their home countries and cited Egypt’s public statements that marchers had not been granted authorization.
Organizers leading the overland convoy said authorities had allowed them to camp in Sirte and await further approval.
Their group, which includes thousands of participants, had already traversed parts of Algeria, Tunisia, and the western Libyan cities of Tripoli and Misrata.
Jawaher Shana, one of the convoy’s organizers, said it would eventually continue.
“We didn’t cross 2,000 km all for nothing!” she yelled to a crowd at Sirte Gate, referencing the length of the Mediterranean coastline the convoy had traveled.
The efforts — the activist flotilla, the overland convoy, and the planned march — come as international outcry grows over conditions in Gaza.
Israel has continued to pummel the territory with airstrikes while limiting the flow of trucks carrying food, water, and medication that can enter.
The UN has said the vast majority of the population relies on humanitarian aid to survive, and experts have warned the coastal enclave will likely fall into famine if Israel doesn’t lift its blockade and stop its military campaign.
Over UN objections, a US-backed group has taken control of the limited aid entering Gaza.
But as desperate Palestinians crowd its distribution sites, chaos has erupted, and almost 200 people have been killed near aid sites.
Nearly half a million Palestinians are on the brink of possible starvation, and 1 million others can barely get enough food, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a leading international authority.
Israel has rejected the findings, saying the IPC’s previous forecasts had proven unfounded.

 


Palestinian ambassador: UK should recognize statehood to help end ‘deadly status quo’

Updated 13 June 2025
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Palestinian ambassador: UK should recognize statehood to help end ‘deadly status quo’

  • Husam Zomlot urges Britain to ‘right historic wrongs,’ show ‘political courage’
  • UN conference on 2-state solution could see states, including France, Canada, recognize Palestine

LONDON: The Palestinian ambassador to the UK has called on the Labour government to fulfill its manifesto pledge and recognize his nation as an independent sovereign state.

Husam Zomlot wrote in The Guardian that the move was “long overdue” ahead of a UN conference on the two-state solution next week in New York, and that it would help end the “deadly status quo” with Israel.

“I call on the British government to end this vicious path, right its historic wrongs and officially recognize the state of Palestine while the conditions are uniquely ripe to do so,” Zomlot wrote.

“Recognition is neither a reward for one party nor a punishment for another. It is a long-overdue affirmation of the Palestinian people’s unconditional right to exist and live freely in our homeland,” he added.

“Peace is not made between occupier and occupied. It can only exist between equals.”

Ahead of the UN conference on June 17, set to be co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, several states yet to recognize Palestine have begun discussions about doing so, including the UK and Canada. 

Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer came under pressure in the House of Commons on Tuesday for the government to recognize Palestine unconditionally.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told Parliament the UK had held direct talks with France about Palestinian statehood, but added the UK wanted the move to amount to more than just a symbolic gesture.

But Zomlot wrote: “Recognition (should not) be subject to ever more conditions on the Palestinian side. Delaying recognition simply reinforces the deadly status quo, denying Palestinians’ equal rights until Israel consents, thus granting our occupier a permanent veto over the future.”

Ahead of the conference, the French government, which is also believed to be among those set to recognize Palestine, published a letter laying out political commitments made by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, including that a future Palestinian state would require Hamas “laying down its weapons” and “no longer ruling Gaza.”

The commitments included holding democratic presidential elections within a year, and Hamas accepting nonviolence, disarmament, and the two-state solution. Abbas also condemned the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by the militant group, and demanded the release of all remaining hostages in Gaza.

Hugh Lovatt, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The Guardian: “Recognition would certainly allow London and Paris to press the PA towards political renewal, including the holding of long-overdue elections, but it does not provide them with much leverage over Hamas which does not consider recognition by itself as being of sufficient value of itself to disarm before a peace agreement with Israel is reached.”

A senior diplomat from a Gulf state told The Guardian that Hamas had agreed to the proposal to end its rule in Gaza, but not to disarming.

Another Gulf diplomat told the paper: “Israel is seeking the total annihilation of Hamas and will not be willing to hand security in Gaza to the PA or a multinational force.”

The US government sent a diplomatic cable on Tuesday urging countries not to attend the conference, calling it “counterproductive to ongoing, lifesaving efforts to end the war in Gaza and free hostages.”

But Zomlot wrote: “This is a moment of historic consequence. It demands moral clarity and political courage. I urge the UK to rise to the moment and act now.”


Arab world, Middle East condemn Israel’s attacks against Iran

Updated 13 June 2025
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Arab world, Middle East condemn Israel’s attacks against Iran

DUBAI: The Arab world has responded to Israel’s strikes against Iran, each country offering its condemnation of the attacks that killed at least two top military officers, raising the potential for an all-out war between the two bitter Middle East adversaries.

The UAE, through its foreign affairs ministry, stressed the importance of “exercising the utmost self-restraint and judgment to mitigate risks and prevent the expansion of the conflict.”

 

 

“Enhancing dialogue, adhering to international law, and respecting the sovereignty of states constitute essential principles for resolving the current crises,” the foreign affairs ministry added.

The UAE emphasized the need to resolve disputes through diplomatic means rather than confrontation and escalation, and called on the United Nations Security Council to take urgent and necessary measures to achieve a ceasefire, and to reinforce international peace and security.

Oman offered its “strong condemnation of the brutal military aggression launched by Israel on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which targeted sovereign facilities and caused casualties.”

 

 

“Oman considers this action a dangerous and reckless escalation that constitutes a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter and the principles of international law. It also represents unacceptable and ongoing aggressive behavior that undermines the foundations of stability in the region,” the country’s foreign affairs ministry said.

And Jordan’s foreign ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah warned of the “consequences of such escalatory actions, saying they threatened regional security and stability and risk exacerbating tensions”, state news agency Petra reported.

 

 

Elsewhere Qatar said it “considers the assault a blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security, as well as a clear breach of international law and its established principles,” state news agency QNA meanwhile reported.

“The State of Qatar voices its grave concern over this dangerous escalation, which forms part of a recurring pattern of aggressive policies that threaten regional peace and stability and hinder efforts aimed at de-escalation and diplomatic resolution.”

Qatar emphasized “the urgent need for the international community to assume its legal and moral responsibilities and to act swiftly to halt these Israeli violations.”

 

 

“The State of Qatar reaffirms its firm position in rejecting all forms of violence, and reiterates its call for restraint and the avoidance of escalation that could widen the scope of conflict and undermine regional security and stability,” QNA reported.

Turkiye also condemned “in the strongest terms” Israel’s air strike on Iran, calling it a provocation that violates international law and risks further escalation in the region.

The Turkish foreign ministry in a statement said the attack showed Israel “does not want issues to be resolved through diplomatic means” and urged it to halt “aggressive actions that could lead to greater conflicts.”

 

 

Jassim Mohammed Al-Budaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), also described the Israeli attacks as a ‘clear violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.’

Al-Budaiwi, in a statement, called on the ‘international community and the Security Council to assume their responsibilities towards immediately halting this aggression and avoiding escalation that could ignite a wider conflict, which would have dire consequences for regional and international peace.’

In its condemnation of the attacks, Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned of its “grave repercussions on regional security and stability”.

And it called for “de-escalation, restraint, and a reduction in tensions”.

The Ministry reiterated Bahrain’s call for an immediate halt to military escalation to spare the region and its people from the consequences on regional stability, security, and international peace.

And it affirmed Bahrain’s stance advocating for the resolution of the crises through dialogue and diplomatic means, as well as the necessity of continuing US-Iranian negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear file.