Coronavirus outbreak compounds Iraq’s perfect storm of crises

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Anti-government demonstrations erupted in Baghdad on Oct. 1 over a lack of jobs, poor public services and corruption. Protesters have long-demanded a snap election, putting added pressure on the beleaguered government. (AFP)
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Updated 30 March 2020
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Coronavirus outbreak compounds Iraq’s perfect storm of crises

  • Rising cases puts weak healthcare system under pressure amid political turmoil and economic uncertainty
  • More than 500 infections and at least 40 deaths have been reported so far in different governorates

ERBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: As Iraq faces several severe crises simultaneously, some see the makings of a perfect storm that could prove too much for Iraq’s dysfunctional government to handle.

An unchecked outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) could prove the proverbial last straw for a country grappling with political turmoil, dwindling oil revenues, deteriorating government services and geopolitical skirmishing.

“Iraq is on the cusp of melting down,” Nicholas Heras, the Middle East Portfolio Manager at The Institute for the Study of War, told Arab News.

“The Iraqi state institutions were already collapsing before the fall in oil prices, and Iraq’s health infrastructure is too much in shambles to handle a big surge in COVID-19 cases.”

The country had reported 506 cinfirmed cases and 42 deaths as of March 29.

Heras attributes Iraq’s particular vulnerability to these crises to the rampant corruption that has prevailed in the country’s post-2003 political establishment.

“Iraq is on the verge of being a failed state,” he said.

The fall in the international price of oil will hit the Iraqi economy hard. Iraq depends on its oil revenues to fund its bloated public sector payroll, which many Iraqis rely upon for their livelihood.

The steep decline in the price of oil means it will not be able to do that.

FASTFACT

In Numbers

13 Iraq’s Fragile States Index rank (out of 178)

5.5% Health expenditure as fraction of GDP

27 Probability of dying under 5 years (per 1,000 births)

68 Life expectancy at birth (Male)

72 Life expectancy at birth (Female)

This closely coincided with another series of crises that have afflicted this country in the first three months of this decade alone.

Iraqis mounted an unprecedented six-month-long protest campaign that began last October against government corruption that has been endemic in the post-2003 political order.

Furthermore, political disputes have left the country without a prime minister since Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigned four months ago amid pressure from protesters.

Three weeks ago, Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi was nominated but failed to secure approval from parliament and was rejected by the protest movement.

Adnan al-Zurfi, former governor of Najaf, is the present prime minister-designate but faces stiff opposition from Iran-backed factions in the Iraqi parliament.

Joel Wing, an Iraq analyst and author of the Musings on Iraq blog, also believes that Iraq is facing a very severe set of crises which he believes spell disaster for the troubled country.

“On the political front, the ruling parties have been unable to agree upon a new prime minister which leaves the government completely in limbo,” he said.

“There is no leadership when that is exactly what the nation needs.”

The collapse in oil prices not only means that the Iraqi government will be unable to pay public sector salaries but is also incapable of meeting other basic costs.

“Because of the government crisis, there is no planning going on for this situation,” Wing said.

“Instead, you get people like the Central Bank chief saying everything is fine, and parliament is sitting on the draft 2020 budget.”

On top of this, Iraq also has to deal with the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Wing echoed Heras when he pointed out that Baghdad lacks any way of dealing with it, given the present political and economic situation.

Even if it does have a plan, he added, it might well lack the money to implement it.

“This is a perfect storm which the country will find it very hard to pull itself out of, especially because all three issues are interconnected,” he said.

Aside from Daesh remnants still operating on its soil and continuing to pose a security threat, Iraq would likely become a major battlefield if war breaks out between the US and Iran.

The US-Iran standoff in Iraq has shown worrying signs of boiling over into open conflict in recent months.




A purpose-built sealed hospital bed built by a resident of Iraq's southern city of Basra to isolate COVID-19 coronavirus disease patients. (Photo by Hussein FALEH / AFP)

After the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah Iraqi militia killed a US contractor in a rocket attack in late December, the US retaliated, killing several members of the group’s militia in airstrikes.

Then, on Jan. 8, the US assassinated both Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ extraterritorial Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Kataib Hezbollah’s commander, in a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport.

Iran responded with missile strikes on two US bases, one in Anbar and the other in Iraqi Kurdistan, a few days later, leaving several US troops with brain injuries.

The US did not respond.

Calls for the expulsion of US troops from Iraq intensified by Iran-backed factions in Iraq’s parliament and other Iraqis who fear their country becoming a bloody battlefield in the US-Iran proxy war.

On March 11, Iraqi militia rocket attacks again struck a base with US personnel – killing two American troops and one British troop – and the US once again retaliated by bombing a Kataib Hezbollah target.

However, that airstrike did not seem to inflict any casualties or significant damage against the group.




An Iraqi Civil Defense worker disinfects the streets of Sadr City in Baghdad on March 24, 2020 as a precaution against the coronavirus. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)

More tit-for-tat exchanges could occur in the near future, which would likely make the situation in Iraq even more volatile.

Lawk Ghafuri, a reporter on Iraqi affairs for the Kurdish news agency Rudaw, argues that the US-Iran tensions in Iraq constitute the most serious crisis facing Iraq today.

“US-Iran tensions are here to stay, as we now see new Iranian-backed groups are rising in Iraq,” Ghafuri told Arab News.

He noted that the US recently began to reposition its troops in Iraq so they can deal with the increasingly deadly threat of rocket attacks from these groups more adequately.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus outbreak is likely to affect Iraq more seriously in the near future.

“From today onward, the coronavirus will also worsen in Iraq as it did in Iran because people are ignoring the threats of this virus,” Ghafuri said.

Turning a blind eye to government restrictions, Shiite pilgrims visited the shrine of Imam Musa Kazim on March 21, sparking fears that the virus will spread more rapidly in the coming days and weeks.

Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, notes that the multiple crises Iraq face today put the country in a “uniquely precarious position.”

“If the post-2003 Iraqi state is going to give way, now is the moment,” he told Arab News.

That being said, Orton also believes that there is still a chance that “the centre will hold” since the protest movement has been significantly undermined by Iranian-backed paramilitaries and the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, relieving that primary source of domestic pressure on the Iraqi government.




An Iraqi woman wearing a mask against COVID-19 sells vegetables in the streets of Sadr City in Baghdad on March 24, 2020. (Photo by AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP)

He also doubts that the US is seriously contesting Iranian power in Iraq despite Soleimani’s assassination, which he said it was “an exception” to US President Donald Trump’s rule of not forcibly combating “Iranian imperialism” in Iraq.

“A US-Iran contest for Baghdad could be messy for the system; unhindered Iranian dominance has a short-term systemic ‘stability’, even as it means greater corruption and repression that will surely re-energize the protest movement at some point in the future,” Orton said.

The inherent failures in Iraq’s post-2003 political system may bring about its downfall as it is failing to meet the most fundamental needs of the Iraqi people.

Wing explained that this system mainly consisted of elites who had a greater interest in enriching themselves through the monopolization of state resources.

These elites were able to retain their hold on power by creating patronage networks that they provided lucrative contracts and government jobs to in return for support and loyalty.

“The oil wealth also allowed the ruling parties not to be responsive to the public because it didn’t need it for taxes even though the country has a democratic system,” he said.

“Instead, the elite felt that the people should be dependent upon them because they controlled the state and jobs.”

This arrangement may well be unraveling since the government can no longer generate enough oil revenue to pay its employees.

Wing also noted that this comes as “it is being called on to deal with the public’s health when it has never shown any real interest in the people’s demands, and the parties have become so divided they can’t even decide who will rule.”

If the post-2003 political order finally does implode it’s unclear what’s in store for Iraq in the not-too-distant future.


Israel’s Supreme Court opens hearing on security chief’s dismissal

Updated 3 sec ago
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Israel’s Supreme Court opens hearing on security chief’s dismissal

JERUSALEM: Israel’s Supreme Court on Tuesday began hearing petitions challenging a government decision to dismiss the head of the Shin Bet domestic security agency, Ronen Bar, that cited “lack of trust.”
Opposition politicians and non-profit groups have contested the move, which Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara said was “tainted by personal conflict of interest” on the part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

An Israeli strike hit near a charity kitchen in Gaza as Palestinians gathered for food

Updated 08 April 2025
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An Israeli strike hit near a charity kitchen in Gaza as Palestinians gathered for food

  • The strike hit around noon as the kitchen was distributing meals to displaced people living in tent camps
  • Israel’s campaign has killed more than 1,000 health workers and at least 173 journalists, according to the UN and the Committee to Protect Journalists

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: An Israeli strike on Monday hit next to a charity kitchen where Palestinians crowded to receive cooked meals as food supplies dwindle under Israel’s month-long blockade of the Gaza Strip, one of a string of attacks in the territory that killed more than 30 people, mostly women and children, hospital officials said.
Another strike hit a media tent outside a hospital, killing two people, including a local reporter, and wounding six other journalists, medics said. The Israeli military said the strike targeted a man whom it identified as a Hamas militant posing as a journalist.
Video footage showed people carrying the body of a little girl, her face covered with blood, from the blast that witnesses said hit a tent next to the charity kitchen outside the southern city of Khan Younis. Six other people were killed, including two women, and at least 10 people were wounded, hospital officials said.
The strike hit around noon as the kitchen was distributing meals to displaced people living in tent camps. Samah Abu Jamie said her nephew was among those killed and her young daughter was wounded as they waited with their pots to collect meals for their families.
“They were going to get food. I told her, ‘Daughter, don’t go’,” she said. “These were children, and they had nothing with them but a pot. Is a pot a weapon?”
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on the strike.
‘Bombed and starved again’
Charity kitchens have been drawing bigger crowds of Palestinians because other sources of food are running out. More than a month ago, Israeli cut off all food, fuel, medicine and other supplies for Gaza’s population of more than 2 million people, forcing aid groups to ration their stocks.
The World Food Program has warned that its supplies to keep kitchens going could be depleted by next week. It had to stop distributing boxes of food staples directly to families last week, spokesperson Abeer Etefa said Monday. The bakeries it ran have also shut down for lack of flour, ending a main source of bread for hundreds of thousands of people.
Since it ended its ceasefire with Hamas last month, Israel has carried out bombardments across Gaza, killing hundreds of people, and ground forces have carved out new military zones. Israel says it is pressuring Hamas to free its remaining hostages, disarm and leave the territory. Under the ceasefire deal, it had agreed to negotiate for the hostages’ release.
The heads of six UN agencies operating in Gaza said in a joint statement Monday that the blockade has left Gaza’s population “trapped, bombed and starved again.” They said Israeli claims that enough supplies entered during the ceasefire “are far from the reality on the ground, and commodities are running extremely low.”
“We are witnessing acts of war in Gaza that show an utter disregard for human life,” they said. “Protect civilians. Facilitate aid. Release hostages. Renew a ceasefire.”
Strikes hit journalists and homes
The strike outside Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis about 2 a.m. set the media tent ablaze, killing Yousef Al-Faqawi, a reporter for the Palestine Today news website, and another man, according to hospital officials.
The military said the strike targeted Hassan Eslaiah, claiming he was a Hamas militant who took part in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel that ignited the war. Eslaiah was among six journalists who were wounded in the strike, according to the hospital.
Eslaiah had occasionally contributed images to The Associated Press and other international media outlets as a freelance journalist, including on Oct. 7. The AP has not worked with him for over a year.
A strike that hit a street in Gaza City killed an emergency room doctor, the Gaza Health Ministry said. Israel’s campaign has killed more than 1,000 health workers and at least 173 journalists, according to the UN and the Committee to Protect Journalists.
Hospitals in Khan Younis and the central town of Deir Al-Balah said they received the bodies of 33 people, 19 of them women and children, from strikes overnight and into the day on Monday, including those from the kitchen and the media tent attack.
Some of the strike reduced houses to rubble. Imad Maghari said the blast that hit his neighbors in Deir Al-Balah at 2 a.m. was like “an earthquake,” followed by the screams of women and children. He said one neighbor lost five family members and another a young boy.
“I don’t know what danger he poses. He’s 7 years old,” Maghari said.
Israel’s military offensive in retaliation for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to the Gaza health ministry, whose count does not distinguish between militants and civilians. The offensive has destroyed vast areas of the Gaza Strip and displaced around 90 percent of its population.
Israel says it tries to avoid civilian casualties and blames Hamas for their deaths because it operates among the population.
In the Oct. 7 attack, Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted 251 people. They are still holding 59 captives — 24 of whom are believed to be alive — after most of the rest were released in ceasefires or other deals.
Protests in Israel as Netanyahu meets Trump
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Monday to discuss Gaza and other issues.
Dozens of protesters gathered outside Netanyahu’s official residence in Jerusalem to call for an agreement to release the captives. Many fear that Netanyahu’s decision to resume the fighting has put the remaining hostages in grave danger and hope Trump can help broker another deal.
“Now the moment of truth has come,” said Varda Ben Baruch, grandmother of Israeli American hostage Edan Alexander, addressing Netanyahu. “You are in the United States and you have to sit there with President Trump and close a deal so that everyone will be released home.”
 

 


Syria appoints finance expert as new central bank governor

Updated 07 April 2025
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Syria appoints finance expert as new central bank governor

  • Hasriya takes over from Maysa Sabreen, who had been appointed caretaken governor in late December, after an Islamist-led offensive toppled longtime president Bashar Assad

DAMASCUS: Syria’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa on Monday appointed Abdul Qadir Al-Hasriya as governor of the war-battered country’s central bank, state media reported.
State news agency SANA posted a picture of Hasriya taking the oath as the new central bank chief in front of Sharaa, who on Monday led a first cabinet meeting to “discuss government priorities for the next phase.”
Sharaa announced the formation of a new government on March 29.
Syria’s national currency is considered the foremost challenge for the central bank post, after its value plummeted during 13 years of civil war.
Hasriya takes over from Maysa Sabreen, who had been appointed caretaken governor in late December, after an Islamist-led offensive toppled longtime president Bashar Assad.
Sabreen, a banking expert, had been the first woman to head the financial establishment, having served as first deputy governor since 2018.
Hasriya was born in 1961 and previously lived between the United Arab Emirates and Syria.
He studied at the American University of Beirut before completing his PhD in finance at the University of Durham in Britain.
He previously worked for accountancy firms EY, previously known as Ernst & Young, and Arthur Andersen, as well as having been a member of the financial committee of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies in Geneva.
He was a consultant on reforms to Syria’s central bank in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme.
The Syrian pound has lost about 90 percent of its value since the start of the civil war in 2011, sinking from 50 pounds to currently around 10,000-12,000 to the US dollar.


Netanyahu says Israel working on fresh Gaza hostage deal

Updated 44 min 11 sec ago
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Netanyahu says Israel working on fresh Gaza hostage deal

  • The recent truce had allowed the return of 33 Israeli hostages, eight of whom were dead, in exchange for the release of some 1,800 Palestinians held in Israeli jails

WASHINGTON: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday during a White House appearance with President Donald Trump that new negotiations were in the works aimed at getting more hostages released from Hamas captivity in Gaza.
“We’re working now on another deal that we hope will succeed, and we’re committed to getting all the hostages out,” Netanyahu told reporters in the Oval Office.
Trump for his part said: “We are trying very hard to get the hostages out. We’re looking at another ceasefire, we’ll see what happens.”
Netanyahu added that “the hostages are in agony, and we want to get them all out.”
The Israeli leader, seated next to Trump, highlighted an earlier hostage release agreement negotiated in part by Trump’s regional envoy Steve Witkoff that “got 25 out.”
Netanyahu’s visit follows the collapse of Israel’s six-week truce with Palestinian group Hamas, whose militants launched an unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 that triggered the war.
The fragile ceasefire ended with Israel’s resumption of air strikes on Gaza on March 18.
The recent truce had allowed the return of 33 Israeli hostages, eight of whom were dead, in exchange for the release of some 1,800 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
The prime minister and his government maintain — against the advice of most hostage families — that increased military pressure is the only way to force Hamas to return the remaining hostages, dead or alive.
Of the 251 hostages abducted during Hamas’s October 7 attack, 58 remain in captivity in Gaza, including 34 who the Israeli military says are dead.


Aoun meets US delegation amid latest Israeli strikes 

Updated 07 April 2025
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Aoun meets US delegation amid latest Israeli strikes 

  • Motorcyclist killed in southern border area accused by Israel of being Hezbollah commander
  • Aoun urges Washington to pressure Israel, as US official insists on reform 

BEIRUT: An Israeli strike Monday in southern Lebanon killed one person, according to the Health Ministry, with Israel’s military saying it had “eliminated” a Hezbollah commander.

The attack was conducted by an Israeli drone which targeted a motorcycle repair shop in the border town of Taybeh, with Israel claiming to have struck “a commander in Hezbollah’s artillery system.”

A Lebanese security source said the attack targeted “a motorcycle as its rider stopped in front of a motorcycle repair shop on the Taybeh-Adaisseh road, resulting in his death and a fire breaking out at the location.”

Hezbollah later identified the deceased man as Mohammed Adnan Mansour.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah was meant to withdraw fighters from south of the Litani River and dismantle any remaining military infrastructure there.

Israel was to withdraw all its forces from southern Lebanon but continues to hold five positions that it deems “strategic.”

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun has urged Washington to pressure Israel to withdraw from the five border points, saying the ongoing troop presence “complicates the situation.”

On Monday, the Lebanese government received a message from the US confirming the need to disarm Hezbollah and implement necessary reforms for the country to receive financial aid, with Washington anticipating swift action on these issues.

A delegation from the American Task Force on Lebanon, headed by Edward Gabriel, conveyed the message to Aoun.

Aoun said there is no place for any weapons or armed groups outside the framework of the Lebanese state.

Aoun on Monday said the issue needed to be resolved “through communication and dialogue because, in the end, Hezbollah is a Lebanese component.”

Authorities would soon begin drafting a “national security strategy,” he added.

During a meeting with the delegation, Aoun reaffirmed Lebanon’s full commitment to UN Resolution 1701, commending the work of UNIFIL south of the Litani River.

Aoun pointed to “Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement,” saying that “Israel’s continued presence in the five hills it occupied will not be beneficial for Lebanon and will further complicate the situation.

“Therefore, we call on the US to pressure Israel to withdraw from them,” he added.

“The Lebanese Army, north of the Litani River, dismantled six camps that were under the control of Palestinian groups outside the refugee camps,” Aoun continued.

“They are now empty, and the weapons found were either confiscated or destroyed.”

Aoun confirmed that “the priority is to reduce tension in the south.”

He added: “The will is there, and the UNIFIL are doing their job to the fullest. But we must take into account that they are bearing many responsibilities. Lebanon needs time to resolve matters calmly.”

Aoun noted that “three weeks ago, the government approved the recruitment of 4,500 soldiers to boost our preparedness in the south.”

He emphasized to the American delegation that “reforms and the disarmament of weapons are demands from Lebanon, as well as from the international community and the US. We are committed to working towards these goals, and building trust is a step we have already initiated.”

Gabriel spoke about the “significant recognition of the efforts made by the Lebanese Army and the commendable work of the president.”

He stated: “I understand that your contribution to this was extremely important, and there are still many tasks that need to be completed, which we have been made aware of. The sooner these are carried out, the quicker we can assist you.”

Gabriel revealed that “a funding bill is being prepared in Congress for the upcoming year, along with three significant pieces of legislation included in the economic package.”

Aoun also met on Monday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to discuss the outcomes of the visit of US Deputy Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus to Lebanon last weekend.

According to a political observer, the emphasis was placed on “expediting the approval of reform laws in parliament” after “constructive and positive” discussions with Ortagus.

Less than 24 hours before the strike on the motorcycle repair shop in Tayah, an Israeli drone targeted a vehicle in Naqoura.

Israeli Army spokesman Avichay Adraee claimed that the “targeted people were two members of Hezbollah who worked on an engineering vehicle in the Zebqin area of southern Lebanon, attempting to reconstruct infrastructure associated with Hezbollah.”

Meanwhile, in more positive news, Pierre Achkar, president of the Federation for Tourism and the Hotel Association in Lebanon, said that Eid Al-Fitr brought a significant influx of Qatari and Kuwaiti tourists to the Mediterranean country.

“While Iraqis had historically been the top tourist group, followed by Jordanians, Egyptians, and Syrians, Qataris and Kuwaitis now make up a larger portion of visitors to Lebanon,” he said.

“The occupancy rate in hotels located in safe areas and downtown reached 70 percent to 80 percent, while others saw 50 percent to 60 percent occupancy rates,” he added.

Achkar expressed hope that, with the increasing number of Gulf tourists, travel bans on Saudi and Emirati nationals visiting Lebanon would be lifted “as their presence could significantly benefit the Lebanese tourism sector.”

Elsewhere protests broke out in Lebanon on Monday across the country in response to a global call for solidarity with the people of Gaza. Many educational institutions and markets went on strike, and the Lebanese military implemented strict security measures around the US Embassy to prevent protesters from gathering in the area.