From Middle East to USA, coronavirus impact transforms oil industry’s dynamics

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The fossil fuel industry will inevitably feel the pain from the coronavirus impact more acutely than other economic sectors. (Reuters)
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Updated 01 August 2020
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From Middle East to USA, coronavirus impact transforms oil industry’s dynamics

  • March 2020 will go down in oil history as the month that changed the energy world
  • Demand for energy products, stable oil prices and market alliances have been upended

DUBAI: March 2020 will go down in oil history as the month that changed the energy world. 

What seemed to be certainties at the beginning of the month — growing demand for energy products, reasonably stable oil prices, business-like alliances in the crude markets — have all been upended. The industry will never be the same again. 

Daniel Yergin, the pre-eminent historian of the oil industry, described the past month as “unlike anything in the history of the oil industry,” as the world has locked itself down in the face of the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). 

Measures taken against the virus have affected the economy of virtually every country on earth. 

FASTFACTS

20%

Contraction in global oil demand 

Goldman Sachs, the US investment bank, estimated in a recent research paper that 92 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) had been impacted by social-distancing measures. 

The fossil fuel industry will inevitably feel the pain more acutely than other economic sectors. 

“Not only is this the largest economic shock of our lifetimes, but carbon-based industries like oil sit in the cross-hairs, as they have historically served as the cornerstone of social interactions and globalization — the prevention of which are the main defense against the virus,” Goldman said. 

These measures have led to a contraction of global demand of at least 20 percent, as factories fall idle, trucks stop hauling and planes are grounded. Some experts believe the demand loss will be even greater as the virus peaks in Europe and the US. 

But what made this unprecedented health crisis all the more problematic for oil producers were the events of March 6 in Vienna. 

There the three-year old pact between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers — led respectively by Saudi Arabia and Russia, known as OPEC+ — fell apart over Saudi proposals to deepen and prolong output cuts in order to prop up the price of crude. 

Some commentators at the time thought the Saudis were bluffing, and had “painted themselves into a corner,” but they were given reason for second thoughts a few days later when the Kingdom unveiled a “shock and awe” campaign to dramatically increase output and offer big discounts to global customers. 

“They mean it,” one expert tweeted. 

Since then, Saudi Arabia has relentlessly upped the stakes. 

The Kingdom announced it intended to increase its “maximum sustainable capacity” — the amount of all the oil it can produce at full-out capacity — to 13 million barrels per day (bpd) in the long term. Just this week it said it would increase exports to an unprecedented 10.6 million bpd from next month. 

Other big producing countries like Russia, the UAE, Iraq and Nigeria said they would also increase output dramatically — though none have the same capacity as Saudi Arabia, with its easily accessible fields and low production costs. 

The immediate effect was been the sharpest fall of the price of crude in decades. 

In the last three weeks Brent crude has halved in price, and is standing at around one-third of its average price over the past year. 

On March 9 — the first day trading after the Vienna collapse — it fell by 30 percent, the biggest one-day amount in 30 years. 

This shock has sent convulsions through the global oil industry. 

Refineries, pipeline and storage facilities are awash with crude; the maritime crude carriers that can store crude on the high seas have been rented out for the duration at big premiums. 

In some landlocked American oilfields — where production costs are much higher than in Saudi Arabia — it has been reported that producers are paying customers to take crude away, rather than charging them for the goods supplied. 

In an era when negative interest rates loom larger each day, we now have “negative oil.” 




The fossil fuel industry will inevitably feel the pain from the coronavirus impact more acutely than other economic sectors. (Reuters)

Goldman Sachs estimated that the world has spare storage capacity for around 1 billion barrels of oil but not all of that will be accessed because transportation systems — pipelines, haulage and shipping — will seize up first. 

What remains open will be quickly swamped if there are 20 million surplus barrels being produced per day, as Goldman estimates. 

The unavoidable fate for some oil fields will be to “shut in” — to physically stop producing and leave the oil in the ground as long as prices stay so low. But this option is fraught with risks too. 

Oil corporations and governments need the revenue from crude sales, and their reserves could deteriorate quickly and their wells suffer serious long-term damage. 

The other negative effect of full storage tanks for some parts of the industry is that, once economies restart and oil demand eventually picks up, there will be a glut of cheap oil ready to flood the world’s markets, further endangering the high-cost producers’ hopes of recovery. 

Another set of US experts, the energy research team Bank of America Merrill Lynch, summed up the prospects in the three-word headline of a research note: “Into the Abyss.”

Against this background, many industry experts have struggled to understand why Saudi Arabia effectively declared “oil price wars” once the Russians refused to get involved in deeper cuts in Vienna. 

Some have highlighted the destabilizing effect on the global energy industry which the Kingdom has long sought to stabilize. 

FASTFACT

30%

Drop in price of crude on March 9 

Others have pointed to the undoubtedly negative effects of “price wars” on the Kingdom’s own revenues from oil, which are significantly impacted by lower oil prices, even if securing a bigger long-term market share. 

The complaints about Saudi Arabia’s new initiative have reached a crescendo in the US, which has by far the most to lose from a prolonged price war. 

American senators from oil-producing states have written strongly worded letters to US President Donald Trump demanding action against their ally. 

But the Kingdom has stuck resolutely to its position: Its deal with the Russians stabilized the industry for three full years, even as other producers were honoring it only in word. 

The US shale industry got a very good deal out of the OPEC+ arrangement for a long time and should be grateful for that; and it was the Russians, rather than the Saudis, who precipitated the current situation. 

Many experts are beginning to agree with the Kingdom. Omar Najia, head of derivatives at global trading group BB Energy, said: “Shale has been sick for so long and has been having a free ride on the back of OPEC+ for so long, the shoe had to drop.” 

Against the charge of recklessness leveled against the Kingdom and Russia for starting the price war, some experts are beginning to discern a pretty shrewd long-term strategy. 

Writing in the Financial Times, Antoine Halff, research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy in New York, said; “From a game theory perspective, it is a masterstroke.” 

He argued the real target of the strategy is the US shale industry, which has thrived on prices kept artificially high by OPEC+. 

“The sell-off will hurt producers all around but will bring Riyadh and Moscow longer term benefits. The real prize for OPEC is the taming of shale oil,” Halff said. 

While the US share industry was aware of the danger from March 6, with dire noises immediately coming from Texas, home of the US oil industry, about the financial dangers, it has taken longer for policymakers to react. 

Trump, caught in an election cycle with gas-consuming voters and oil-producing supporters to satisfy at the same time, initially said falling oil prices were “good for the consumer,” but recently changed his mind as the oil lobby has increasingly got its point across. 

“I never thought that I’d be saying that maybe we need to have an oil increase, because we do. The price is too low,” Trump said, before talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin about oil and agreeing ministerial level talks about the possibility of some kind of stabilization. 

Yergin told Arab News: “Trump has now engaged directly with the crisis in the oil industry. The administration is very concerned about the price collapse and its threat to the future of the US oil and gas industry. 

“And it’s not just the administration. It’s also some of the most influential and important US senators who have become alarmed about the impact on their states.” 

Trump has also named a special oil envoy, Victoria Coates, former adviser to US Energy Minister Dan Brouillette, to handle US-Saudi oil relations, raising hopes that a three-way pact between the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia — a kind of super-OPEC+ — might be a possibility. 

Some oil experts do not share that optimism. Robin Mills, chief executive of consultancy Qamar Energy, said: “It’s hard to see there would be a deal. Co-ordinating US producers and getting them to co-operate with Russia and Saudi Arabia is problematic, and it is all politically difficult for Trump.” 

But it is also hard to see any deal on oil output that could outweigh the dramatic destruction of oil demand that has taken place in the past few weeks because of the virus lockdown. 

The month of March has transformed the economics, dynamics and power relationships of the oil industry, and it is hard to see how the old certainties can ever return.


Saudi commercial bank profits jump 16% in April, topping $2bn before zakat, tax

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Saudi commercial bank profits jump 16% in April, topping $2bn before zakat, tax

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s banking sector extended its winning streak in April, posting SR7.77 billion ($2.07 billion) in pre-zakat and tax profits, a 16 percent increase compared to the same month last year.

According to the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, this brought year-to-date earnings to SR32.97 billion, an annual rise of 20 percent, keeping the Kingdom firmly on course for another record-breaking period.

The sustained momentum is attributed to a robust mix of state spending on giga-projects, resilient consumer demand, and still-elevated interest rates.

Financing volumes continue to climb, driven primarily by corporate borrowers across a growing range of industries, including manufacturing, utilities, insurance, and private education. 

Contractors are also racing to secure long-term credit for giga-projects such as NEOM, Diriyah, and the Jafurah gas field.

A wider Gulf picture

Strong as those local figures are, the broader region is also gaining momentum. A Kamco Invest report released in May showed that Gulf banks collectively earned a record $15.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, an 8.6 percent increase from a year earlier.

Financial institutions in the UAE posted the largest absolute increase, adding $639.6 million, while Saudi lenders recorded the fastest annual growth at 17.2 percent.

Kamco added that fee income is rising, costs are under control, and loan-loss provisions fell sharply during the period, cushioning a small dip in net interest income.

Investor appetite is visible in market valuations. Forbes Middle East’s “30 Most Valuable Banks 2025” March list includes 10 Saudi lenders with a combined market cap of about $269 billion— roughly one-third of the entire ranking.

Al Rajhi Bank led the pack at $105.6 billion, with Saudi National Bank following at $54.7 billion.

Global Finance named Saudi Awwal Bank the Kingdom’s best lender in its May “World’s Best Banks in the Middle East 2025” release, highlighting its HSBC-backed mobile app upgrades, Visa Direct payments, and one-stop small and medium-sized enterprises lending platform.

Cleaning the books and raising cash

Banks are also getting balance sheets ready for the next investment wave.

Bloomberg reported in March that lenders are exploring sales of older non-performing loans to specialist investors to free up capital for upcoming mega project drawdowns.

They’re also tapping capital markets. By June, they had issued over $5.6 billion in Additional Tier-1 bonds, already a full-year record and the world’s second-largest AT1 issuance in 2025, according to Bloomberg.

The spree includes Al Rajhi Bank’s $1.25 billion deal in April, Banque Saudi Fransi’s $650 million perpetual at 6.375 percent in May, Saudi Awwal Bank’s $650 million inaugural issue, and Alinma Bank’s $500 million of sustainable sukuk, all heavily oversubscribed.

By tapping eager investors now, while margins remain healthy and global demand for Gulf paper is strong, lenders are bulking up capital buffers and keeping loan-to-deposit ratios in check. That leaves them better prepared to fund the fast-rising credit needs of projects like NEOM and Diriyah without tripping liquidity alarms later in the year.

Fintech role

Fintech is reshaping Saudi banking from the ground up. The Saudi Central Bank’s Open Banking Framework — most recently updated in September to cover payment-initiation services — sets common technical rules that let lenders and start-ups plug their systems together safely and at speed.

Speaking at the inaugural 24 Fintech conference in September, Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan revealed that the Kingdom had licensed 224 fintech firms by the second quarter of 2024, up from fewer than 100 just three years earlier.

One of the newest players is Riyadh-based Stitch, which closed a $10 million seed round on May 28. The company offers a single set of application-programming interfaces that lets banks, fintechs and even non-financial brands bolt on real-time payments and open-banking functions far faster than older systems.

Early adopters already include Lulu Exchange and point-of-sale platform Foodics. The founders say the fresh cash will go toward doubling the engineering team and expanding the product suite.

Looking ahead

Riyad Capital’s first-quarter preview, released in April, expects another double-digit profit rise this year, about SR19 billion for the listed banks it tracks, as loan growth stays strong and rate cuts arrive slowly.

S&P Global, in its Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook 2025 report, says a 10 percent increase in lending should outweigh a 20- to 30-basis-point dip in margins, keeping sector returns on assets near 2.1 percent to 2.2 percent.

Funding is the main watchpoint. Moody’s shifted its system outlook to stable on Feb. 25, saying strong credit growth is tightening liquidity, but capital buffers remain solid.

For now, asset-quality risks remain low. S&P expects non-performing loans to edge up to just 1.7 percent by the end of 2025, while loan-loss provisions are projected to stay around 50 to 60 basis points. Banks’ total capital ratios, hovering near 19 percent, provide a solid buffer to absorb potential shocks from falling oil prices or rising private-sector leverage.

Saudi lenders are still the region’s earnings workhorse. Profits are rising, market values are high, and fresh money — from bond buyers to venture capitalists — is flowing in. If they can keep gathering deposits quickly enough to fund a fast-growing loan book, the Kingdom’s banks look set to stay ahead of their Gulf neighbors in both profit and ambition well into next year.


Saudi carrier flynas to expand operations across 4 hubs, official says 

Updated 20 sec ago
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Saudi carrier flynas to expand operations across 4 hubs, official says 

  • Hubs include Riyadh, Jeddah, Madinah, and Dammam as part of growth plan
  • Carrier expanded its summer schedule by launching four new international destinations

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s low-cost carrier flynas is set to expand operations across its four main hubs — Riyadh, Jeddah, Madinah, and Dammam — as part of an ambitious growth plan, according to a top official. 

In an interview with Al-Eqtisadiah, Waleed Ahmed, the company’s official spokesperson, said that flynas holds the largest aircraft order in the Kingdom and one of the biggest in the Middle East, with a total of 280 aircraft set to be received. 

This follows a major deal signed in July with Airbus to acquire 160 new aircraft — including 30 wide-body A330neo and 130 single-aisle jets across A320neo, A321neo, and A321LR models. 

The airline has seen a sharp rise in passenger traffic, with volumes climbing from around 11 million in 2023 to more than 14.7 million in 2024, reflecting the low-cost carrier’s rapid expansion in line with Saudi Arabia’s push to position itself as a leading global hub for tourism and business. 

“These numbers reinforce the company’s role in supporting Vision 2030, which aims to increase the number of passengers to 330 million and attract more than 150 million international passengers by that year.” Ahmed said, as quoted by Al-Eqtisadiah. 

He also highlighted that, as part of its ambitious strategic plan, flynas has expanded its summer schedule by launching four new destinations for the first time: Krakow in Poland, Geneva in Switzerland, Milan in Italy, and Rize in Turkiye, in addition to its usual summer routes. 

Last week, flynas finalized its initial public offering at SR80 ($21) per share — the top of its indicated price range — following strong demand from both institutional and retail investors. 

The pricing values the airline at an estimated market capitalization of SR13.6 billion at listing. 

The offering followed the company’s announcement last month of its intention to float 30 percent of its share capital on the Saudi Exchange, making flynas the first airline in the Kingdom to go public and the first Gulf airline IPO in nearly two decades. 

In line with its ongoing fleet expansion, flynas recently took delivery of its fourth Airbus A320neo of 2025, bringing the total number of A320neo aircraft in its all-Airbus fleet to 57. The current fleet includes 63 aircraft — 57 A320neo, four A320ceo, and two A330neo wide-body jets.


Al-Habtoor Group chairman to lead high-level delegation to Syria, exploring investment opportunities

Updated 09 June 2025
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Al-Habtoor Group chairman to lead high-level delegation to Syria, exploring investment opportunities

  • Group said visit reflects its ongoing strategy to explore new cooperation with Syrian government
  • Khalaf Al-Habtoor to visit Syria in coming days

RIYADH: The head of Dubai conglomerate Al-Habtoor Group is set to visit Syria with a delegation of senior executives to discuss potential investments and partnerships with the new government.

According to a statement, the visit reflects the group’s ongoing strategy to explore new avenues of cooperation with the Syrian government and to assess potential investment opportunities across multiple sectors. 

It added that the trip stems from “a firm belief” in Syria’s ability to recover its strength and regional standing and the importance of public-private partnerships in the country’s rebuilding phase.

The move comes as Syria’s transitional government, led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, pushes economic reforms to attract foreign investment, including privatizations, relaxed trade policies, and major infrastructure deals. 

Speaking ahead of the trip, the group’s Chairman Khalaf Ahmad Al-Habtoor said: “Syria is a country rich in culture, history, and capable people. We believe in its future potential and are eager to play a role in its revival through meaningful projects that generate employment.”  

He added: “We look to Syria with great confidence. Its people possess the energy and resilience needed to shape a strong and prosperous future. As an Arab group with deep regional roots, we consider it both a moral and economic responsibility to stand as a partner in rebuilding stable and thriving societies.”

Al-Habtoor Group, a UAE-based multinational with a strong presence in the hospitality, real estate, and automotive industries, has a history of large-scale investments in the Middle East. The move follows the organization’s recent withdrawal from Lebanon, where it cited instability as a barrier to business.


Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May

Updated 09 June 2025
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Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves hold steady at $22.76bn in May

  • Gold holdings at the end of May were valued at $7.76 billion
  • Qatar Central Bank recorded a 3.6% increase in its foreign currency reserves and liquidity

RIYADH: Jordan’s foreign exchange reserves remained largely unchanged in May, standing at $22.76 billion, as per new data released by the Central Bank of Jordan. 

The slight month-on-month dip — about 0.2 percent from April — reflects broad stability in the Kingdom’s external buffers. 

Jordan’s foreign exchange figures are broadly in line with trends observed across other Middle East and North African countries. 

The Qatar Central Bank recorded a 3.6 percent increase in its foreign currency reserves and liquidity, reaching 258.135 billion Qatari riyals ($70.9 billion) in May, up from 249.165 billion riyals in May 2024. 

Jordan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating was affirmed at “BB-” with a stable outlook by Fitch Ratings. File/AFP

Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $48.525 billion by the end of May, compared to $48.144 billion in April, marking an increase of $381 million. 

“The Central Bank of Jordan stated in a statement today that its total foreign reserves are sufficient to cover the country’s imports of goods and services for approximately nine months,” the Qatar News Agency reported. 

The central bank also reported that gold holdings at the end of May were valued at $7.76 billion, totaling 2.345 million ounces, underscoring the role of bullion in Jordan’s reserve composition. 

“It added that the presence of comfortable levels of foreign reserves enhances the ability to influence exchange rates, provides a stable economic environment, and enhances the confidence of foreign creditors and investors,” the QNA report stated, citing the Jordan Central Bank. 

The Central Bank of Jordan said its total foreign reserves are sufficient to cover the country’s imports of goods and services for approximately nine months. File/AFP

In May, Jordan’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating was affirmed at “BB-” with a stable outlook by Fitch Ratings, citing the country’s macroeconomic stability and progress on fiscal and economic reforms. 

The US-based credit rating agency noted that the rating and stable outlook also reflect Jordan’s resilient financing sources — including a liquid banking sector, a robust public pension fund, and sustained international support. 

Despite the stable outlook, Jordan’s credit rating remains below that of several other countries in the region. In February, Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia’s IDR at “A+” with a stable outlook, while the UAE was rated “AA-.” 

Fitch said the ratings are constrained by high government debt, moderate growth, risks from domestic and regional politics, as well as current account deficits and net external debt levels that exceed those of rating peers. 

Jordan’s foreign exchange figures are broadly in line with trends observed across other Middle East and North African countries. Central Bank of Jordan

A “BB” rating indicates elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the event of adverse shifts in business or economic conditions. However, it also suggests some degree of financial or operational flexibility in meeting commitments. 

Fitch also noted that Jordan’s government remains committed to advancing its three-pillar reform agenda — spanning economic, public administration, and political sectors — despite external pressures. 

The agency added that the pace of reforms will continue to be shaped by the need to preserve social stability, resistance from vested interests, and institutional capacity limitations.


Syria’s central bank plans currency unification and return to global payment system SWIFT

Updated 09 June 2025
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Syria’s central bank plans currency unification and return to global payment system SWIFT

  • Governor Abdulkader Husrieh said reforms aim to eliminate role of unauthorized money changers
  • Reintegration into SWIFT marks milestone in new government’s economic liberalization efforts

RIYADH: Syria will adopt a unified exchange rate before transitioning to a managed float system as it seeks to stabilize a currency that has lost nearly all its value against the US dollar.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Central Bank of Syria’s Governor Abdulkader Husrieh confirmed the reforms, emphasizing efforts to eliminate the role of unauthorized money changers in the country’s foreign exchange market as part of broader financial reconstruction.

Syria is also set to be fully reintegrated into the SWIFT international money transfer system within weeks, reconnecting the country to global finance after 14 years of war and sanctions. 

The country is working to revive its economy after years of conflict, with its transitional government, led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, implementing reforms such as privatizing state-owned firms, easing import restrictions, and attracting foreign investment. 

An armed member of Syria’s security forces stands guard outside the Damascus Securities Exchange as the stock market opens in the Ya’fur area near Damascus. AFP

“We aim to enhance the brand of the country as a financial hub given the expected foreign direct investment in rebuilding and infrastructure — this is crucial,” Husrieh told the FT.

Key developments in Syria include a $7 billion energy deal with Qatar, the reopening of the Damascus Securities Exchange, and a $300 million fiber-optic project with Gulf telecom companies. These initiatives come as Saudi Arabia and Qatar pledge financial support to help stabilize Syria’s economy amid a gradual easing of Western sanctions.

SWIFT reconnection to boost trade and investment 

The reintegration into SWIFT marks a milestone in the new government’s economic liberalization efforts following the lifting of US sanctions last month.

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications is a global cooperative that facilitates secure international money and security transfers through a vast messaging network, enabling banks and financial institutions to exchange information and instructions for financial transactions.

Husrieh, who took office in April, said that significant progress has been made but acknowledged that there’s still much work ahead.

A money changer waits for customers on a street in Damascus. AFP

Post-war economic challenges 

Since 2011, Syria has been isolated from global markets due to war and sanctions. The economy collapsed under ex-President Bashar Assad and when Al-Sharaa took power last December, his government swiftly introduced free-market reforms to revive the economy and reassure wary foreign investors. 

Last month, President Donald Trump’s announcement of lifting sanctions provided a major boost, but Husrieh stressed that “a full policy shift is still needed,” calling for comprehensive sanctions removal rather than selective measures.

“The central bank previously micromanaged the financial system, overregulated lending, and restricted withdrawals,” he said. “We’re reforming through recapitalization, deregulation, and re-establishing banks as intermediaries between households and businesses.”

Reconnecting to SWIFT will reduce import costs, facilitate exports, and curb reliance on informal financial networks. Husrieh said all foreign trade will now go through formal banks, cutting out money changers who took a 40 percent cut on dollar transactions. 

Before Assad left the presidency, the Syrian pound plummeted. While it has since strengthened, volatility remains. Husrieh aims to unify official and black-market rates before transitioning to a managed floating exchange rate system. 

Gulf nations are actively supporting the reforms in Syria, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar cleared the country’s World Bank debt and pledged to cover public sector salaries for three months. 

“Effective May 12, 2025, the arrears of approximately $15.5 million due to the International Development Association by the Syrian Arab Republic have been cleared,” the World Bank confirmed on May 16.