Bleak figures from China and US show economic hit from virus

Workers wear protective masks as production continues in an Indian factory near Ahmedabad. (AFP)
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Updated 18 April 2020
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Bleak figures from China and US show economic hit from virus

  • Some countries consider gradual lifting of restrictions to minimize the social cost as jobless figures rise sharply

BEIJING: Bleak figures from the world’s two largest economies underscore how quickly the coronavirus is delivering a massive economic blow.

China on Friday reported GDP shrank 6.8 percent from a year ago in the quarter ending March, its worst contraction since before economic reforms began in 1979. In the US, the world’s largest economy, the ranks of the unemployed swelled toward levels reached during the Great Depression.

Still, the economic data from China was not as bad as some had feared, prompting shares in Asia to surge. That was after Wall Street also rose, powered by buying of Amazon, health care stocks and other market niches that are thriving in the coronavirus crunch.

The recovery for workers is likely to take a long time, however. Some forecasters earlier said China might rebound as early as this month, but they have been cutting growth forecasts and pushing back recovery timelines as negative trade and other data pile up.

The US government reported 5.2 million more Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the four-week total to 22 million — easily the worst stretch of US job losses on record. The losses translate to about 1 in 7 American workers.

South Korea reported its worst jobless figures in more than a decade, with almost 200,000 fewer people working in March than in the same month last year.

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South Korea on Friday reported its worst jobless figures in more than a decade, with almost 200,000 fewer people working in March than in the same month a year earlier.

President Donald Trump reacted to the pressure on the economy by outlining a phased approach to reopening parts of the country where the pandemic is being brought under control.

He told the nation’s governors that restrictions could be eased to allow businesses to reopen over the coming weeks in places that have extensive testing and a marked decrease in COVID-19 cases.

“We are not opening all at once, but one careful step at a time,” Trump said, adding that his new guidelines give governors the freedom to act as they see fit.

His comments marked an abrupt change after he clashed with governors over his claim that he had “total” authority over how and when the country reopens.

Worldwide, the outbreak has infected more than 2.1 million people and killed more than 144,000, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University, though the true numbers are believed to be much higher. The death toll in the US topped 33,000, with more than 670,000 confirmed infections.

China raised its death toll to over 4,600 after Wuhan, where the outbreak first took hold, added nearly 1,300 deaths. State media said the undercount was due to insufficient admission capabilities at overwhelmed medical facilities. Questions have long swirled around the accuracy of China’s case reporting, with some saying officials sought to minimize the outbreak.

The spread of the virus is declining in Italy, Spain and France, but rising or continuing at a high level in Britain, Russia and Turkey. Singapore reported a record daily high of 728 new cases as it ramped up its testing at dormitories crammed with foreign workers.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the economic impacts of the pandemic were putting many of the world’s children in jeopardy, and urged families and leaders everywhere to help protect them.

The UN chief said in a video statement that the lives of children were being “totally upended” by COVID-19, with almost all students out of school, family stress levels rising as communities face lockdowns, and reduced household income expected to force poor families to cut back on essential health and food expenditures, which would affect children in particular.

In China, retail spending, which accounted for 80 percent of economic growth last year, plunged 19 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, below most forecasts. Investment in factories, real estate and other fixed assets, the other major growth driver, sank 16.1 percent.

Factories and other businesses were allowed to reopen. However, cinemas, hair salons and other enterprises that are deemed nonessential but employ millions of people are still closed.

New York reported more encouraging signs, with a drop in the daily number of deaths statewide.

“We’ve controlled the beast,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. Still, Cuomo extended the state’s lockdown through at least May 15. 

Lifting of restrictions, when it happens, won’t be like flipping a switch. Restaurants and other businesses may be reopened in phases, with perhaps a limited number of entrances or reduced seating areas, while supermarkets may stick with one-way aisles and protective shields at the cash registers, experts say.

Many European countries, like the US, have seen heavy job losses, but places like Germany and France are using government subsidies to keep millions of people on payrolls.

Italy’s Lombardy region is pushing to restart manufacturing in early May, and Switzerland announced staggered re-openings.

“The transition is beginning,” Swiss Health Minister Alain Berset said. “We want to go as fast as possible, and as slow as necessary.”


Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains on anxiety over intensifying Ukraine war

Updated 22 November 2024
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Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains on anxiety over intensifying Ukraine war

LONDON: Oil prices extended gains on Friday, heading for a weekly uptick of more than 4 percent, as the Ukraine war intensified with Russian President Vladimir Putin warning of a global conflict.

Brent crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $74.33 a barrel by 7:48 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $70.23 per barrel.

Both contracts jumped 2 percent on Thursday and are set to cap gains of more than 4 percent this week, the strongest weekly performance since late September, as Moscow stepped up its offensive against Ukraine after the US and Britain allowed Kyiv to strike Russia with their weapons.

Putin said on Thursday it had fired a ballistic missile at Ukraine and warned of a global conflict, raising the risk of oil supply disruption from one of the world’s largest producers.

Russia this month said it produced about 9 million barrels of oil a day, even with output declines following import bans tied to its invasion of Ukraine and supply curbs by producer group OPEC+.

Ukraine has used drones to target Russian oil infrastructure, including in June, when it used long-range attack drones to strike four Russian refineries.

Swelling US crude and gasoline stocks and forecasts of surplus supply next year limited price gains.

“Our base case is that Brent stays in a $70-85 range, with high spare capacity limiting price upside, and the price elasticity of OPEC and shale supply limiting price downside,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note.

“However, the risks of breaking out are growing,” they said, adding that Brent could rise to about $85 a barrel in the first half of 2025 if Iran supply drops by 1 million barrels per day on tighter sanctions enforcement under US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

Some analysts forecast another jump in US oil inventories in next week’s data.

“We will be expecting a rebound in production as well as US refinery activity next week that will carry negative implications for both crude and key products,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Florida.

The world’s top crude importer, China, meanwhile on Thursday announced policy measures to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over Trump’s threats to impose tariffs.


Bitcoin approaches $100,000 on optimism over Trump crypto plans

Updated 22 November 2024
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Bitcoin approaches $100,000 on optimism over Trump crypto plans

  • Bitcoin has doubled this year, up 40 percent since US election
  • Trump, pro-crypto Congress seen clearing regulatory clouds

SINGAPORE/LONDON/NEW YORK: Bitcoin came within a whisker of closing above $100,000 for the first time on Thursday as the election of Republican Donald Trump as US president spurred expectations that his administration will create a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading between $98,000 and $99,000 in late afternoon trading in the US on Thursday, after briefly touching $99,073. Bitcoin has more than doubled in value this year and is up about 40 percent in the two weeks since Trump was voted in as the next US president and a slew of pro-crypto lawmakers were elected to Congress.
Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign, promising to make the United States the “crypto capital of the planet” and to accumulate a national stockpile of bitcoin.
Crypto investors see an end to increased scrutiny under US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, whom Trump has said he will replace.
Trump also unveiled a new crypto business, World Liberty Financial, in September. Although details about the business have been scarce, investors have taken his personal interest in the sector as a bullish signal.
Billionaire Elon Musk, a major Trump ally, is also a proponent of cryptocurrencies.
Over 16 years after its creation, bitcoin appears on the cusp of mainstream acceptance.
“Everyone who’s bought bitcoin at any point in history is currently in profit,” Alicia Kao, managing director of crypto exchange KuCoin, said.
“But those who bought it early, when there were significant obstacles to doing so and there was the might of the world’s financial and governmental forces intent on crushing it, are the real winners. Not because they’re rich, but because they’re right.”
Bitcoin’s rebound from a slide below $16,000 in late 2022 has been rapid, boosted by the approval of US-listed bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January this year.
The Securities and Exchange Commission had long attempted to block ETFs from investing in bitcoin, citing investor protection concerns, but the products have allowed more investors, including institutional investors, to gain exposure to bitcoin.
Crypto rush
More than $4 billion has streamed into US-listed bitcoin exchange-traded funds since the election. This week, there was a strong debut for options on BlackRock’s ETF, with call options — bets on the price going up — more popular than puts.
“There is a persistent bid in the market,” said Joe McCann, CEO and founder of Asymmetric, a digital assets hedge fund in Miami. “$100,000 is a foregone conclusion.”
Crypto-related stocks have soared along with the bitcoin price and shares in bitcoin miner MARA Holdings were up nearly 2.3 percent on Thursday.
“Once you break out to new highs, you attract a lot of new capital,” John LaForge, head of real asset strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said.
“It’s like gold in the 1970s, where this new high is in a price discovery mode. You don’t know how high it’s going to go,” he said.
Yet the rise is not without critics.
Two years ago, the industry was wracked by scandal with the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange and the jailing of its founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
The cryptocurrency industry also has been criticized for its energy usage, with miners under scrutiny over their potential impact on power grids and greenhouse gas emissions due to their energy-intensive operations.
Crypto crime also remains a concern, with an analysis by crypto researchers Chainalysis finding that at least $24.2 billion worth of crypto was sent to illicit wallet addresses last year, including addresses identified as sanctioned or linked to terrorist financing and scams.
 


Saudi Arabia’s GACA ushers in new era of passenger experience with AI

Updated 21 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s GACA ushers in new era of passenger experience with AI

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s aviation authority is revolutionizing the passenger experience by incorporating artificial intelligence into its services, in alignment with the nation’s strategic aviation plan, a senior Saudi official said.

At the 2024 Global Civil Aviation Forum in Shanghai, Abdulaziz bin Abdullah Al-Dahmash, vice president of the General Authority of Civil Aviation for Quality and Passenger Experience, highlighted the authority’s ongoing initiatives designed to improve passenger satisfaction.

A session dedicated to GACA’s role in enhancing the passenger experience featured international experts and focused on the authority's efforts to align with Saudi Arabia's aviation strategy and Vision 2030.

The discussion underscored Saudi Arabia's use of data analytics and AI to transform the aviation sector, supporting the National Aviation Strategy and the broader Vision 2030 objectives. This approach is part of the Kingdom's goal to achieve excellence in both aviation services and infrastructure.

The National Aviation Strategy serves as a roadmap to solidify Saudi Arabia’s position as a global leader in tourism, business travel, and logistics. Built around three core pillars — empowering national tourism, improving domestic aviation, and aligning with Vision 2030 — the strategy aims to enhance interconnectivity, increase the market share of national carriers, and expand airport infrastructure.

By leveraging its strategic location and investment potential, Saudi Arabia’s aviation strategy directly contributes to Vision 2030, which aims to strengthen services and bolster the travel and logistics sectors.

Al-Dahmash noted that to achieve the National Aviation Strategy’s ambitious goals, which include tripling passenger traffic to 330 million annually by 2030, Saudi Arabia is prioritizing major infrastructure projects.

This includes constructing new airports, such as the King Salman International Airport, and expanding existing ones to accommodate the surge in passenger numbers. Alongside this, there is a strong focus on improving operational efficiency and enhancing the overall passenger experience.

In this context, GACA is actively developing and implementing programs to meet evolving passenger expectations. One such innovation is the introduction of AI-powered systems that manage and monitor passenger flow, tracking wait times across Saudi airports.

Additionally, the “Bagless Traveler” initiative is transforming the travel process by enabling passengers to complete check-in and baggage handling from their accommodation. During its pilot phase, the service successfully assisted over one million passengers, with more than 2 million bags processed without incident.

Al-Dahmash also emphasized the importance of regulatory frameworks that GACA has implemented, noting that these efforts have significantly improved services at Saudi airports, leading to higher levels of passenger satisfaction. This success has garnered recognition, with several airports receiving local and international awards.

Moreover, GACA has presented its innovative passenger experience programs at global conferences, sharing its best practices with civil aviation authorities worldwide, demonstrating how others can leverage these advancements for similar success.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,840

Updated 21 November 2024
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,840

  • Parallel market Nomu gained 681.17 points, or 2.28%, to close at 30,540.28
  • MSCI Tadawul Index lost 4.52 points, or 0.30%, to close at 1,486.82

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Thursday, losing 27.40 points, or 0.23 percent, to close at 11,840.52. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.39 billion ($1.43 billion), as 98 of the stocks advanced and 131 retreated. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 681.17 points, or 2.28 percent, to close at 30,540.28. This comes as 63 of the listed stocks advanced, while 23 retreated. 

The MSCI Tadawul Index lost 4.52 points, or 0.30 percent, to close at 1,486.82. 

The best-performing stock of the day was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., whose share price surged 10 percent to SR0.33. 

Other strong performers included Saudi Reinsurance Co., with a 7.05 percent increase in its share price to SR43.30, and Saudi Chemical Co., which saw its share price rise 5.46 percent to SR10.24. 

Saudi Cable Co. recorded the largest decline, with its share price dropping 4.02 percent to SR97.90. 

CHUBB Arabia Cooperative Insurance Co. also saw its stock fall 3.13 percent to SR49.50. 

Naseej International Trading Co. experienced a 2.64 percent drop in its share price, which fell to SR92.30. 

On the announcements front, Saudi Awwal Bank has disclosed its intention to issue an SR-denominated Additional Tier 1 Sukuk through a private placement in the Kingdom, as part of its SR20 billion Additional Tier 1 Sukuk issuance program. 

According to a Tadawul statement, the bank has appointed HSBC Saudi Arabia as the sole lead manager for the proposed offer. The statement said the purpose of the issuance is to strengthen the bank’s capital base and support the achievement of its long-term strategic objectives. 

The amount and terms of the sukuk will be determined at a later stage, based on market conditions at that time. 

Saudi Awwal Bank closed the session at SR31.40, down 0.63 percent. 

The Saudi Investment Bank has announced the completion of its US dollar-denominated Additional Tier 1 capital sustainable sukuk offering under its Additional Tier 1 capital sukuk program. 

A bourse filing revealed that the offer is valued at $750 million, comprising 3,750 sukuk with a par value of $200,000 each and a return of 6.275 percent. 

The sukuk have a perpetual maturity, callable after five years. Settlement of the sukuk issuance is scheduled for Nov. 27, and the sukuk will be listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Securities Market. 

Saudi Investment Bank closed the session at SR13.88, down 0.29 percent. 


Aramco to increase borrowing, focus on dividend growth, CFO says

Updated 21 November 2024
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Aramco to increase borrowing, focus on dividend growth, CFO says

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco plans to increase borrowing and focus on enhancing its dividend distribution strategy, revealed the company’s chief financial officer. 

In an interview with Bloomberg, Ziad Al-Murshed explained that this move is part of the company’s efforts to optimize its capital structure. 

Aramco is considered one of the pillars of the Saudi economy, encompassing the entire oil production chain, from hydrocarbon extraction to energy generation, as well as refining and commercial distribution activities.  

“You’ll see us do a couple of things. One is, just take on more debt compared to use of equity,” Al-Murshed said during the interview. 

“It’s nothing to do with the dividend, it is optimizing our capital structure so that we end up with a lower weighted average cost of capital,” he added. 

Aramco returned to the debt market earlier this year after a three-year hiatus, raising $9 billion in two separate issuances. In June, it launched a $6 billion offering of dollar-denominated bonds, followed by a $3 billion issuance of Islamic bonds in September.   

The CFO noted: “We had the luxury of sitting out those three years until the market became conducive.” 

Al-Murshed provided insight into how the company increased its dividend by 4 percent in each of the past two years and is now paying over $81 billion in base dividends. 

“We’re looking for it to be progressive over the years,” he said, adding that the company’s free cash flow supports this strategy. 

While the company plans to issue debt regularly, Al-Murshed emphasized that it will not be overly frequent and revealed that Aramco has no plans to sell more debt for the remainder of 2024. 

“We want to be active, but we don’t want to be too active,” he said. 

The CFO further clarified that the company’s decision to sell debt is primarily aimed at broadening its investor base. 

Al-Murshed did not specify whether Aramco would borrow to support its dividend payments, which are set to total $124 billion this year, exceeding the company’s earnings. 

Earlier this month, Aramco reported a net profit of SR103.37 billion ($27.52 billion) for the third quarter of 2024, exceeding analyst expectations, which had projected a median net income of $26.9 billion. 

However, in a statement released at the time, the company noted a 15.4 percent decline in net profit compared to the same period in 2023, attributed to challenging market conditions, including lower prices for crude oil, refined products, and chemicals. 

Aramco’s vision remains to be the world’s leading integrated energy and chemicals company, operating in a safe, sustainable, and reliable manner.