Focus: US Macro Picture

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Updated 07 May 2020
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Focus: US Macro Picture

What happened:

The Bank of England (BOE) left rates unchanged at 0.1 percent. Quantitative easing likewise remains unchanged. The current target £645 billion pounds ($795 billion) will probably be hit by July. Sterling rose 0.2 percent to $1.2369 immediately after the news was released and fluctuated thereafter. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey vouched to insert more monetary stimulus as needed. The bank predicts UK GDP will contract by 30 percent in the first half (3 percent in the first quarter and 25 percent in second quarter), with a preliminary outlook of a 14 percent contraction for 2020, the worst since 1706. House prices could fall by as much as 16 percent and unemployment could rise by 9 percent, bringing the number of unemployed above levels seen after the financial crisis.

Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to zero.

China’s exports for April grew unexpectedly by 3.5 percent compared to the same month in 2019. This is surprising amid the lockdown measures of China’s major trading partners. Imports dropped by 14.2 percent. The country’s trade surplus for the month stood at $45.3 billion. The economist community expected exports to shrink by 11 percent and imports to do slightly better by only declining 10 percent.

The Turkish lira hit a record low not seen since the 2018 currency crisis after authorities accused London-based banks of manipulation.

Saudi Arabia slashed its discounts on crude for buyers in Asia and other geographies. In Europe, they were reduced from $10 a barrel for Brent to $4. With this action, Saudi Aramco sends two messages to the market: Firstly, that the price war between Russia and the KSA is over and secondly, that they are more confident in oil demand going forward.

Earnings season continued:

Arcellor Mittal reported a net loss of $1.1 billion as opposed to a $400 million loss for the same quarter of 2019. The company abandoned guidance for 2020.

Drinks manufacturer AB InBev reported an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $3.9 billion, down 13.7 percent. First quarter shipments fell 9.3 percent while April’s fell 32 percent, prompting the drinks manufacturer to expect the second quarter to turn out far worse than the first due to restaurants and bars being closed amid the lockdown.

Air France KLM Group posted a loss of  €815 million ($880 million) with capacity for the second and third quarters of 2020 contracting around -95 percent and -80 percent compared to the previous year.

DSM: Adjusted net profit came in at €168 million, up by 8 percent, reflecting primarily the success of its nutrition segment.

Munich Re reported a first quarter net profit of €221 million, down 65 percent compared to the same period in 2019. The re-insurer booked €800 million in coronavirus-related losses for the first quarter.

Background:

In a telephone call, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink painted a gloomy picture of the US economy, foreseeing bankruptcies on a wide scale. He was apparently particularly worried about what the pandemic would do to the psyche of the US consumer, who contributes 70 percent of the country’s GDP.

He also foresaw empty planes. His bleak outlook on travel and hospitality is reflected in the Intercontinental Hotels Group reservation rates, which were down 25 percent for the first quarter, 55 percent for March, and an unprecedented 80 percent for April.

Partially underlying Fink’s pessimistic views for the US economy were first-time jobless claims, which exceeded 30 million over the last six weeks. This week, Airbnb and Uber announced mass layoffs.

Where we go from here:

Telefonica and Liberty will combine their UK businesses of O2 and Virgin Media in a £31.4 billion deal, expecting synergies of £540 million. The joint company will have revenues of £11 billion and a customer base of 46 million across the collective mobile, broadband and pay-tv segments. The combined company expects to invest £10bn in the UK over the next five years. This will shake up the mobile/broadband market by creating a strong competitor to BT.

ADP reports that an estimated 20.2 million private-sector jobs were lost in April amid the coronavirus crisis. First-time jobless claims for the week ending May 1 and non-farm payroll numbers for April will be released later today.

 

— Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources.
Twitter: @MeyerResources


India, UK to resume free trade talks next year

Updated 7 min 2 sec ago
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India, UK to resume free trade talks next year

  • For India, Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with UK is of ‘immense priority,’ Modi says
  • Previous sticking points in talks include India’s demand for more visas for students, professionals

NEW DELHI: India and the UK are set to resume talks on a free trade deal, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office said on Tuesday, following his meeting with British PM Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Brazil.

The two countries first started discussing a free trade agreement in 2022, with the aim of doubling bilateral trade by 2030 from over $31 billion then.

The FTA discussions have stalled since, though total trade between India and Britain — currently the world’s fifth- and sixth-largest economies — was worth $42 billion in the 12 months to June this year.

Modi and Starmer met for the first time in Rio de Janeiro, where they agreed to strengthen cooperation and restart the talks.

“Both leaders underlined the importance of resuming the Free Trade Agreement negotiations at an early date and expressed confidence in the ability of the negotiating teams to address the remaining issues to mutual satisfaction,” Modi’s office said in a statement.

“The two leaders directed their ministers and senior officials to work toward faster implementation of the various understandings that form part of the India-UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.”

Free trade negotiations will restart early next year, according to a statement issued by Starmer’s office, with the UK seeking a “new strategic partnership” that covers deeper cooperation in security, education, technology and climate change.

Their strategic partnership was an “immense priority” for India, Modi wrote on X.

“In the coming years, we are eager to work closely in areas such as technology, green energy, security, innovation and technology. We also want to add strength to trade as well as cultural linkages,” he said.

The talks have been delayed for a number of reasons, including political turmoil in the UK and elections in both countries, said Shairee Malhotra, deputy director of the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

“With a more stable government in the UK now and the deal holding bipartisan support, the time is ripe to resume negotiations,” Malhotra told Arab News.

But there are “contentious issues” that they need to resolve, including India wanting a more liberalized visa regime for its professionals and students and the country’s steep import duty on British whiskey.

“These demands on both sides need ironing out in order for the FTA to be concluded. But there is an immense amount of political will on both sides and India too has recently adopted a more open and forward-looking approach to trade deals,” Malhotra said.

There is also a strong geopolitical aspect attached to the deal now, with both Britain and India seeking to diversify their trade and supply chains to reduce dependencies on China and the victory of Donald Trump in the recent US presidential election likely factoring in during negotiations.

“In the context of a second Trump presidency and his penchant for tariffs, the FTA, with its potential to increase trade, investment and jobs, may assume greater significance,” Malhotra said.


G20 summit calls for more aid to Gaza, end to war in Ukraine

Updated 23 min 37 sec ago
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G20 summit calls for more aid to Gaza, end to war in Ukraine

  • Declaration refers to “catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon”
  • Affirms Palestinian right to self-determination, reiterates “unwavering commitment” to two-state solution

RIO DE JANEIRO: Leaders of the world’s 20 major economies called for a global pact to combat hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Mideast and Ukraine, issuing a joint declaration Monday that was heavy on generalities but short of details on how to accomplish those goals.

The joint statement was endorsed by group members but fell short of complete unanimity. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and for reforms allowing the eventual expansion of the United Nation Security Council beyond its five current permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting which formally ends Wednesday, experts doubted Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could convince the assembled leaders to hammer out any agreement at all in a gathering rife with uncertainty over the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, and heightened global tensions over wars in the Mideast and Ukraine.

Argentina challenged some of the language in initial drafts and was the one country that did not endorse the complete document.

“Although generic, it is a positive surprise for Brazil,” said Thomas Traumann, an independent political consultant and former Brazilian minister. “There was a moment when there was a risk of no declaration at all. Despite the caveats, it is a good result for Lula.”

Taking place just over a year after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the declaration referred to the “catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon,” stressing the urgent need to expand humanitarian assistance and better protect civilians.

“Affirming the Palestinian right to self-determination, we reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-State solution where Israel and a Palestinian State live side by side in peace,” it said.

It did not mention Israel’s suffering or of the 100 or so hostages still held by Hamas. Israel isn’t a G20 member. The war has so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, and more than 3,500 people in Lebanon following Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

The omitted acknowledgment of Israel’s distress appeared to run contrary to US President Joe Biden’s consistent backing of Israel’s right to defend itself. It’s something Biden always notes in public, even when speaking about the deprivation of Palestinians. 

During a meeting with G20 leaders before the declaration was hammered home, Biden expressed his view that Hamas is solely to blame for the war and called on fellow leaders to “increase the pressure on Hamas” to accept a ceasefire deal.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range US missiles to allow that country to strike more deeply inside Russia also played into the meetings,
“The United States strongly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Everyone around this table in my view should, as well,” Biden said during the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting , and instead sent his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. Putin has avoided such summits after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant that obliges member states to arrest him.

The G20 declaration highlighted the human suffering in Ukraine while calling for peace, without naming Russia.

“The declaration avoids pointing the finger at the culprits,” said Paulo Velasco, an international relations professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. “That is, it doesn’t make any critical mention of Israel or Russia, but it highlights the dramatic humanitarian situations in both cases.”

The entire declaration lacks specificity, Velasco added.

“It is very much in line with what Brazil hoped for ... but if we really analyze it carefully, it is very much a declaration of intent. It is a declaration of good will on various issues, but we have very few concrete, tangible measures.”

Fraught push to tax global billionaires

The declaration did call for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people around the world, including about 100 in Latin América.

The clause was included despite opposition from Argentina. So was another promoting gender equality, said Brazilian and other officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration, bit also had issues with references to the UN’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Its right-wing president, Javier Milei, has referred to the agenda as “a supranational program of a socialist nature.” It also objected to calls for regulating hate speech on social media, which Milei says infringes on national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Milei has often adopted a Trump-like role as a spoiler in multilateral talks hosted by his outspoken critic, Lula.

Concrete steps for fighting global hunger

Much of the declaration focuses on eradicating hunger — a priority for Lula.

Brazil’s government stressed that Lula’s launch of the global alliance against hunger and poverty on Monday was as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 nations had signed onto the plan, Brazil’s government said. It is also backed by organizations including the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A demonstration Sunday on Rio’s Copacabana beach featured 733 empty plates spread across the sand to represent the 733 million people who went hungry in 2023, according to United Nations data.

Viviana Santiago, a director at the anti-poverty nonprofit Oxfam, praised Brazil for using its G20 presidency “to respond to people’s demands worldwide to tackle extreme inequality, hunger and climate breakdown, and particularly for rallying action on taxing the super-rich.”

“Brazil has lit a path toward a more just and resilient world, challenging others to meet them at this critical juncture,” she said in a statement.

Long-awaited reform of the United Nations

Leaders pledged to work for “transformative reform” of the UN Security Council so that it aligns “with the realities and demands of the 21st century, makes it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable.”

Lula has been calling for reform of Security Council since his first two terms in power, from 2003 to 2010, without gaining much traction. Charged with maintaining international peace and security, its original 1945 structure has not changed. Five dominant powers at the end of World War II have veto power — the US, Russia, China, Britain and France — while 10 countries from different regions serve rotating two-year terms.

Virtually all countries agree that nearly eight decades after the United Nations was established, the Security Council should be expanded to reflect the 21st century world and include more voices. The central quandary and biggest disagreement remains how to do that. The G20 declaration doesn’t answer that question.

“We call for an enlarged Security Council composition that improves the representation of the underrepresented and unrepresented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

The United States announced shortly before a UN summit in September that it supports two new permanent seats for African countries, without veto power, and a first-ever non-permanent seat for a small island developing nation. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – support each other’s bids for permanent seats. And the larger

Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries including Pakistan, Italy, Turkiye and Mexico wants additional non-permanent seats with longer terms.


Pakistan Stock Exchange crosses 96,000 to hit record intraday high

Updated 28 min 40 sec ago
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Pakistan Stock Exchange crosses 96,000 to hit record intraday high

  • Higher remittances, exports, foreign investment credited for bullish activity, analysts say
  • Stock Exchange witnessing bullish trend since government slashed policy rate this month

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange on Tuesday surged past 96,000 points to hit a record high in intraday trading, with analysts attributing the rally to a current account surplus in October due to higher remittances, exports and foreign direct investment.

The benchmark KSE-100 index climbed to a record 935.66 points or 0.98 percent to stand at 95,931.33 from the previous close of 94,995.67 points. It touched the 96,036.48 mark for the first time at 2:44pm PST. 

Ahsan Mehanti at the Arif Habib Corporation told Arab News potential investors had weighed surging foreign reserves as well as government decisions over reforms for loss-making state-owned enterprises, independent power producers and energy pricing.

“Stocks bullish on reports of current account surplus of $349 million in Oct. 2024 on higher remittances, exports and FDI rising by 32pc to $904m for Jul-Oct. 2024,” he said. “The next triggers could be easing political noise amid protest calls by opposition.”

Pakistan’s external current account recorded a surplus of $349 million in October 2024, marking the third consecutive month of surplus and the highest in this period. The current account reflects a nation’s transactions with the world, encompassing net trade in goods and services, net earnings on cross-border investments and net transfer payments. 

A surplus indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, thereby strengthening its foreign exchange reserves.

A bullish trend has been observed at the stock market since Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points, bringing it to 15 percent earlier this month. It’s economic indicators have also steadily improved since securing a 37-month, $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.

Before this, the country went through a prolonged economic crisis that drained its foreign exchange reserves and saw its currency weaken amid double-digit inflation.

Last year, Pakistan narrowly avoided a sovereign default by clinching a last-gasp $3 billion IMF bailout deal. 


Hamas negotiators ‘not in Doha’ but political office not closed: Qatar

Updated 32 min 18 sec ago
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Hamas negotiators ‘not in Doha’ but political office not closed: Qatar

  • Qatar hosted the Palestinian militant group since 2012 announced earlier this month it was pausing its mediation efforts

Doha: Hamas negotiators are not in Doha but the Palestinian militant group’s office there has not been permanently closed, Qatar said on Tuesday.
“The leaders of Hamas that are within the negotiating team are now not in Doha,” foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said, adding: “The decision to... close down the office permanently, is a decision that you will hear about from us directly.”
Qatar, along with the United States and Egypt, had been engaged in months of fruitless negotiations for a truce in the Gaza war, which would include a hostage and prisoner release deal.
But the Gulf state, which has hosted the Palestinian militant group since 2012, with Washington’s blessing, announced earlier this month it was pausing its mediation efforts.
“The mediation process right now... is suspended unless we take a decision to reverse that which is based on the positions of both sides,” Ansari said on Tuesday.
“The office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the mediation process. Obviously, when there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function,” he added, declining to confirm whether Qatar had asked Hamas officials to leave.


Pakistan dispatches aid consignment to Syria amid Israeli strikes 

Updated 37 min 37 sec ago
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Pakistan dispatches aid consignment to Syria amid Israeli strikes 

  • Israel has been hitting what it calls Iran-linked targets in Syria for years but has ramped up such raids since Oct. 7, 2023
  • Before latest dispatch, Pakistan has sent 12 aid consignments to Palestine, six shipments to Lebanon, one to Syria

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) on Tuesday dispatched a consignment of aid for Syria where Israel has been carrying out strikes as part of its military actions in the Middle East.

Israel has been hitting what it calls Iran-linked targets in Syria for years but has ramped up such raids since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, leading Israel to launch a military campaign in which more than 43,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and more than 3,500 people in Lebanon.

Israel launched its campaign in Gaza after a Hamas-led assault on southern Israeli communities in which some 1,200 people were killed and another 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies.

“On Tuesday, 20th consignment of aid was dispatched from Karachi to Syria,” the NDMA said in a statement. 

“This aid shipment, sent by NDMA in collaboration with Al-Khidmat Foundation [NGO], comprised approximately 17 tons of supplies, including rice buckets, powdered milk, tin food, family packs, sleeping bags, medical support kits and generator. The aid was dispatched via chartered flight from Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, to Damascus, Syria.”

Before Tuesday’s dispatch, the government of Pakistan had sent 12 aid consignments to Palestine, six to Lebanon, and one to Syria. 

Pakistan does not recognize nor have diplomatic relations with Israel and calls for an independent Palestinian state based on “internationally agreed parameters” and the pre-1967 borders with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital.

Since the beginning of the war in October last year, Pakistan has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza and raised the issue at the United Nations, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and other international forums, urging an end to Israeli military actions.