ISLAMABAD/KARACHI: Abuzar Butt, a farmer in central Punjab had planned on expanding his small construction company with earnings from his wheat produce this year. But his hopes were dashed when harvesting season came around.
The culprit is a spout of torrential and untimely rains. On average, farmers in the arid areas of eastern Punjab province get 36 to 44 maund [unit of weight equivalent to 40 kg] of wheat per acre, but this year, the produce hovered around 12 to 16 maund.

“The poor crop has shattered all my plans and dreams,” Butt, who recently harvested ten acres of wheat, told Arab News.
“Excessive rains in February and March resulted in the yellow rust disease in wheat and ultimately in the low yield,” he said, and urged the government to provide growers with quality seed and education of better cultivation practices to counter the negative impacts of climate change.
As officials wait to collect the exact figures of this year’s production, farmers in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces said they have harvested far lower produce than expected. 
In October last year, the federal committee on agriculture had set a target of 27 million tons of wheat from an area of 9.2 million hectares for the 2019-20 season. And last week, the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet tasked the Ministry of National Food Security and Research to procure 8.25 million tones from growers for the year. 
The ministry informed the committee that of 8.25 million tons, 4.5 million tons were to be procured by Punjab, 1.4 million tones by Sindh, 0.4 million tones by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 0.1 million tones by Balochistan and 1.8 million tones by Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO).

During the first eight months of the current fiscal year and before this year’s harvesting, Pakistan has exported 48,083 metric tons of wheat worth $11.44 million-- a massive 91 percent less than the grain the country exported during the same period last year. 
Pakistan’s wheat exports last year totalled 558,061 metric tons worth $121.99 million, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Potential markets for the wheat include Afghanistan, UAE, Indonesia, Oman and Sri Lanka. 
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remain the lowest producers in the country and both have to procure wheat from Punjab to fulfil their own needs. 
“We have produced 1.3 million tons last year whereas our need is 4.6 million tons. This year we had estimated 1.5 million tons of local produce but torrential and untimely rains in central and northern Pakhtunkhwa have affected the crops and we will have to rely more on Punjab,” Abid Kamal, Director General of Foods department in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa told Arab News, and added the province was trying to introduce better disease free seeds besides launching an awareness campaign for growers.
A long locust infestation is another problem.
Naseer Shawani, a provincial lawmaker and president of the Balochistan Zameendar Action Committee told Arab News the southwestern province’s local wheat crop usually fulfilled 50 percent of its total requirement, but that the crop this year had been affected by a locust infestation in 10 districts. 
“In Naseerabad and district bordering Sindh the crop is better but we will have to purchase more wheat as compared to last year,” Shawani said.
In a surprise turn however, southern Sindh province, which has braved locust attacks in its districts bordering the desert, has reported a bumper crop. 
“The locusts had destroyed the initial cultivation but there was re-cultivation in those districts,” Muhammad Ismail Rahoo, Sindh’s agriculture minister told Arab News, and added that the province had estimated 3.8 million metric tons of wheat this year but was now hoping for 3.9 million metric tons.
“Last year it was 3.6 million metric tons,” he said.
Since the province’s own consumption is estimated to be up to 3 million metric tons, Rahoo said there would be surplus for sale.
The wheat growers of KP however, have a different story to tell.
“I harvested 160 maund wheat from my four acre land last year. [This year] has yielded me 39 maund and that is 21 maund short of my own consumption needs. So instead of selling, I will be purchasing wheat or wheat flour,” Naveed Khan, a farmer in Mardan told Arab News. 
“It is very frustrating when the hard work of months give you nothing,” he said. 
Like Butt, Khan also holds the change in weather and poor seeds as the reason behind the crop’s disappointing performance.
For Khalid Mahmood Khokhar, President Kissan Ittehad, farmers in Pakistan remain vulnerable to extreme weather conditions as their crops and livestock are not insured.
“Agriculture research has never been a priority of our governments, and the low yield of crops and different diseases are an obvious result,” Khokhar told Arab News.
However, Pakistan was still producing enough wheat to fulfil its demand, he said. 
“The wheat crisis is usually engineered by certain mafia and aided by poor governance of the provincial governments,” he said.
Dr. Javed Humayun, a senior joint-secretary at the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said that provincial governments were successfully procuring wheat from farmers as per their assigned targets, and were hopeful to achieve at least 90 percent of what they were assigned.
“We are sure there will be no wheat shortage this year,” Humayun told Arab News. “The supply chain to flour mills has already been improved, and the government will take strict action against profiteers and hoarders.”
 “Our research teams have been working diligently to develop new seed varieties to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change,” he added.