Coronavirus crisis heightens political risks for North Korea’s Kim Jong Un

A file picture of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, left, taken in 2019. (AFP)
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Updated 18 May 2020
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Coronavirus crisis heightens political risks for North Korea’s Kim Jong Un

  • Leader’s public reappearance fails to quieten speculation over his health and possible succession
  • Experts think Kim is keeping his distance from Pyongyang due to a suspected COVID-19 outbreak

ISTANBUL: The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues to be an object of fascination for international news junkies amid the saturation media coverage of the coronavirus pandemic.

Unlike in the past, however, when the country’s missile and nuclear weapons program was invariably the center of attention, this time it is the health of its leader, Chairman Kim Jong Un. Kim’s unexplained absence for nearly 21 days from April 11 fueled speculation that he had been incapacitated, either by COVID-19 or as a result of a botched surgery.

In the first week of this month, speculation about his wellbeing was revived by video footage of the leader speaking during a ribbon-cutting ceremony in a newly opened fertilizer factory located north of Pyongyang.

Now, Kim seems to have repeated his disappearing act; he has not been publicly seen for the past two weeks.

Compounding fears about the future of the DPRK has been the emergence of COVID-19 cases in towns along the border with China. Beijing has sealed off cities in the northeastern Jilin province as a new cluster of cases threatens to undermine its containment of the pandemic.

In all likelihood, Kim is keeping his distance from Pyongyang due to a suspected COVID-19 outbreak across the country.

Experts have expressed skepticism about North Korea’s claim of “zero infections,” attributing it to the country’s reluctance to admit disease outbreaks, its weak medical infrastructure and extreme sensitivity to any potential threat to Kim’s rule. Also undermining the claim is the donation of 1,500 COVID-19 test kits to North Korea from Russia in February.

Observers say similar kits had been shipped there from China. A few relief agencies, notably UNICEF and Doctors Without Borders, are said to have dispatched gloves, masks, goggles and hand hygiene products to North Korea.

Experts have also noted that Kim’s health problems — obesity, heavy smoking and drinking, and a family history of kidney and heart disease — put him at higher risk for severe illness if he were to contract the virus.

US President Donald Trump has publicly wished Kim good health, highlighting the importance that Washington still places in reaching what could very well be a legacy-making peace deal with Pyongyang.

Talks have stalled since the two leaders met a year ago in the world’s most fortified demilitarized zone between the two Koreas, where President Trump made history by becoming the first sitting American president to enter North Korea.

There was much hope then that a peace deal centered around the country’s nuclear program could gain momentum.

Though there are no signs yet that the DPRK is ready to enter into long-term talks, there has been a notable decrease in tensions and threats that could destabilize the Korean Peninsula.

Despite his intermittent disappearances, Kim’s proof of life has been essentially established.

The heightened speculation during April as to whether Kim was alive or dead underscored the fragility of the world’s knowledge on what would happen to the DPRK without him at the helm. And the truth is no one really knows.

Quoting Washington Post reporter Anna Fifield, the US journal, Foreign Affairs, states that Kim is considered physically weak for his age by South Korean doctors who have analyzed footage of him at summits. “Although he is only 36, Kim’s premature death is a real possibility, which means that North Korea could undergo a leadership transition at any moment,” Katrin Fraser Katz and Victor Cha write in the Foreign Affairs essay.

“No one knows who would take charge of North Korea if that happened or how long a new hierarchy would likely take to consolidate its power.”

A rapid collapse or internal fighting between competing factions that could result from Kim’s untimely demise without a clear succession plan in place would no doubt cause a security dilemma for the whole world.

FASTFACTS

  • Kim Jong Un vanished from public view for about six weeks in 2014 before resurfacing with a cane.
  • The North Korean leader disappeared again for nearly three weeks this year starting from April 11.
  • A likely successor is younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, who could maintain the family bloodline.

Recently, 38 North, a respected source of detailed analysis on the DPRK, highlighted the danger of a rapid collapse in the country.

“Among all the challenges associated with a North Korean collapse, the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or movement of WMD out of the country will have the largest strategic implications,” it said.

“The extensive size and complexity of North Korea’s nuclear, chemical and biological (NBC) weapons programs make it virtually impossible for the alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea to have 100 percent clarity of intelligence and greatly increases the likelihood that regime forces, individual opportunists, fleeing members of the regime leadership or breakaway separatists could gain access to WMD.”

A flare-up between the two Koreas would likely lay South Korea’s capital Seoul to waste, wreak havoc with the lives of its ten million inhabitants, and lead to a major humanitarian catastrophe.

Against this tense backdrop, Trump should be commended for continuing to take bold steps towards preventing a devastating war from breaking out on the Korean Peninsula.

Diplomatic outreach to Pyongyang could eventually neutralize the very real threat of nuclear-tipped inter-continental ballistic missiles reaching major American cities on the west coast.

Trump’s Kissinger-style direct approach to Kim has laid the foundation for what could prove to be a turning point in the annals of Washington’s Korea policy.




A student undergoes a temperature check at the Pyongyang Medical University in North Korea in April. (AFP)

And with the pandemic ravaging large expanses of the world, diplomatic engagement between the two countries is needed now more than ever.

Normalizing bilateral relations, establishing new lines for trade in addition to humanitarian assistance and ushering in a new era of prosperity for the people of the DPRK who badly need it, is a vision that offers long-term security assurances for both the American and Korean people.

What is more, bringing North Korea into the fold of responsible nation states may be the best insurance against the transfer of knowledge and technologies related to ballistic missiles and nuclear weapon components to rogue Middle East actors such as Iran and Syria, with whom the regime has had historical partnerships.

The White House should therefore continue to seek a comprehensive peace deal with the DPRK as a diplomatic priority, particularly during the coronavirus pandemic.

Now more than ever, Kim’s hollowed-out economy needs access to global investment and finance. A deal with Washington and Seoul can make that a reality.

It would be a worthwhile initiative not just from the standpoint of Trump’s presidential legacy, but also for its potential for eliminating a longstanding source of geopolitical instability.

 


UK Supreme Court to rule on landmark legal challenge over legal definition of a woman

Updated 2 sec ago
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UK Supreme Court to rule on landmark legal challenge over legal definition of a woman

  • Britain’s highest court scheduled to rule whether a transgender person with a certificate that recognizes them as female can be regarded as a woman under equality laws
LONDON: The UK Supreme Court is poised to rule Wednesday in a legal challenge focusing on the definition of a woman in a long-running dispute between a women’s rights group and the Scottish government.
Five judges at Britain’s highest court are scheduled to rule whether a transgender person with a certificate that recognizes them as female can be regarded as a woman under equality laws.
While the case centers on Scottish law, the group bringing the challenge, For Women Scotland (FWS), has said its outcomes could have UK-wide consequences for sex-based rights as well as everyday single-sex services such as toilets and hospital wards.
What’s the case about?
The case stems from a 2018 law passed by the Scottish Parliament stating that there should be a 50 percent female representation on the boards of Scottish public bodies. That law included transgender women in its definition of women.
The women’s rights group successfully challenged that law, arguing that its redefinition of “woman” went beyond parliament’s powers.
Scottish officials then issued guidance stating that the definition of “woman” included a transgender woman with a gender recognition certificate.
FWS sought to overturn that.
“Not tying the definition of sex to its ordinary meaning means that public boards could conceivably comprise of 50 percent men, and 50 percent men with certificates, yet still lawfully meet the targets for female representation,” the group’s director Trina Budge said.
The challenge was rejected by a court in 2022, but the group was granted permission last year to take its case to the Supreme Court.
What are the arguments?
Aidan O’Neill, a lawyer for FWS, told the Supreme Court judges – three men and two women – that under the Equality Act “sex” should refer to biological sex and as understood “in ordinary, everyday language.”
“Our position is your sex, whether you are a man or a woman or a girl or a boy is determined from conception in utero, even before one’s birth, by one’s body,” he said on Tuesday. “It is an expression of one’s bodily reality. It is an immutable biological state.”
The women’s rights group counts among its supporters author J.K. Rowling, who reportedly donated tens of thousands of pounds to back its work. The “Harry Potter” writer has been vocal in arguing that the rights for trans women should not come at the expense of those who are born biologically female.
Opponents, including Amnesty International, said excluding transgender people from sex discrimination protections conflicts with human rights.
Amnesty submitted a brief in court saying it was concerned about the deterioration of the rights for trans people in the UK and abroad.
“A blanket policy of barring trans women from single-sex services is not a proportionate means to achieve a legitimate aim,” the human rights group said.

Canadian university teachers warned against traveling to the United States

Updated 16 April 2025
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Canadian university teachers warned against traveling to the United States

  • The Canadian government recently updated its US travel advisory, warning residents they may face scrutiny from border guards and the possibility of detention if denied entry

HALIFAX, Nova Scotia: The association that represents academic staff at Canadian universities is warning its members against non-essential travel to the United States.
The Canadian Association of University Teachers released updated travel advice Tuesday due to the “political landscape” created by President Donald Trump’s administration and reports of some Canadians encountering difficulties crossing the border.
The association says academics who are from countries that have tense diplomatic relations with the United States, or who have themselves expressed negative views about the Trump administration, should be particularly cautious about US travel.
Its warning is particularly targeted to academics who identify as transgender or “whose research could be seen as being at odds with the position of the current US administration.”
In addition, the association says academics should carefully consider what information they have, or need to have, on their electronic devices when crossing the border, and take actions to protect sensitive information.
Reports of foreigners being sent to detention or processing centers for more than seven days, including Canadian Jasmine Mooney, a pair of German tourists, and a backpacker from Wales, have been making headlines since Trump took office in January.
The Canadian government recently updated its US travel advisory, warning residents they may face scrutiny from border guards and the possibility of detention if denied entry.
Crossings from Canada into the United States dropped by about 32 percent, or by 864,000 travelers, in March compared to the same month a year ago, according to data from US Customs and Border Protection. Many Canadians are furious about Trump’s annexation threats and trade war but also worried about entering the US
David Robinson, executive director of the university teachers association, said that the warning is the first time his group has advised against non-essential US travel in the 11 years he’s worked with them.
“It’s clear there’s been heightened scrutiny of people entering the United States, and … a heightened kind of political screening of people entering the country,” said Robinson, whose association represents 70,000 teachers, librarians, researchers, general staff and other academic professionals at 122 universities and colleges.
Robinson said the group made the decision after taking legal advice in recent weeks. He said lawyers told them that US border searches can compromise confidential information obtained by academics during their research.
He said the association will keep the warning in place until it sees “the end of political screening, and there is more respect for confidential information on electronic devices.”

 


Afghan children will die because of US funding cuts, aid official says

Updated 16 April 2025
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Afghan children will die because of US funding cuts, aid official says

  • More than 3.5 million children in Afghanistan will suffer from acute malnutrition this year, an increase of 20 percent from 2024

Afghan children will die because of US funding cuts, an aid agency official said Tuesday.
The warning follows the cancelation of foreign aid contracts by President Donald Trump’s administration, including to Afghanistan where more than half of the population needs humanitarian assistance to survive.
Action Against Hunger initially stopped all US-funded activities in March after the money dried up suddenly. But it kept the most critical services going in northeastern Badakhshan province and the capital Kabul through its own budget, a measure that stopped this month.
Its therapeutic feeding unit in Kabul is empty and closing this week. There are no patients, and staff contracts are ending because of the US funding cuts.
“If we don’t treat children with acute malnutrition there is a very high risk of (them) dying,” Action Against Hunger’s country director, Cobi Rietveld, told The Associated Press. “No child should die because of malnutrition. If we don’t fight hunger, people will die of hunger. If they don’t get medical care, there is a high risk of dying. They don’t get medical care, they die.”
More than 3.5 million children in Afghanistan will suffer from acute malnutrition this year, an increase of 20 percent from 2024. Decades of conflict — including the 20-year US war with the Taliban — as well as entrenched poverty and climate shocks have contributed to the country’s humanitarian crisis.
Last year, the United States provided 43 percent of all international humanitarian funding to Afghanistan.
Rietveld said there were other nongovernmental organizations dealing with funding cuts to Afghanistan. “So when we cut the funding, there will be more children who are going to die of malnutrition.”
The children who came to the feeding unit often could not walk or even crawl. Sometimes they were unable to eat because they didn’t have the energy. All the services were provided free of charge, including three meals a day.
Rietveld said children would need to be referred to other places, where there was less capacity and technical knowledge.
Dr. Abdul Hamid Salehi said Afghan mothers were facing a crisis. Poverty levels among families meant it was impossible to treat severely malnourished children in private clinics.
“People used to come to us in large numbers, and they are still hoping and waiting for this funding to be found again or for someone to sponsor us so that we can resume our work and start serving patients once more.”


Magnitude 5.6 earthquake strikes Hindu Kush region, Afghanistan, EMSC says

Updated 16 April 2025
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Magnitude 5.6 earthquake strikes Hindu Kush region, Afghanistan, EMSC says

  • EMSC first reported the quake at a magnitude of 6.4

KABUL: An earthquake of magnitude 5.6 struck the Hindu Kush region in Afghanistan on Wednesday, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC) said.
The quake was at a depth of 121 km (75 miles), EMSC said, and the epicenter 164 km east of Baghlan, a city with a population of about 108,000.
EMSC first reported the quake at a magnitude of 6.4.

 


US plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China, WSJ reports

Updated 16 April 2025
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US plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China, WSJ reports

  • US officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries and prevent Chinese firms from being located in their territories to avoid US tariffs

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump administration plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure US trading partners to limit their dealings with China, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday citing people with knowledge of the conversations.
US officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries and prevent Chinese firms from being located in their territories to avoid US tariffs, the report added.