How Qassem Soleimani’s killing diminished Iran’s Middle East hegemony

Qassem Soleimani was killed in a January US air strike. As head of the Qods Force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) expeditionary arm, Soleimani and his unit built a reputation for brutality in foreign theaters from Aleppo to Sanaa. (AFP/File Photo)
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Updated 12 August 2020
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How Qassem Soleimani’s killing diminished Iran’s Middle East hegemony

  • Tehran’s regional influence may have declined with the loss of Qassem Soleimani’s personality cult
  • New Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani’s low profile and lack of Middle East experience may be showing

LONDON: Six months ago, a US missile brought to an end the 23-year military career of the Middle East’s most dangerous man: Qassem Soleimani, the “shadow commander.”

As head of the Quds Force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) expeditionary arm, Soleimani and his unit built a reputation for brutality in foreign theaters from Aleppo to Sanaa. The Quds’ network of proxies assassinated foreign politicians, laid siege to cities and fomented chaos across the Middle East.

In pursuit of the so-called Islamic Revolution, it seemed that Soleimani would stop at nothing.

But after six months without its infamous commander, evidence is mounting that the Quds Force’s power and corrosive influence may be in decline.

Prior to his death, Soleimani’s centrality to the military and foreign policy apparatus of the Islamic Republic could not be overstated, Dr Nima Mina, Professor of Iranian Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, told Arab News.

“Soleimani was the second most powerful man in Iran, you could say that about him,” he said. “But you definitely cannot say that about Esmail Qaani, his replacement.”

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prioritised a smooth transition when he named then-deputy Qaani as the new head of the Quds Force the day after Soleimani’s death. However, this came at a cost.

On his inauguration, Qaani promised to continue working toward Soleimani’s central goal: to remove the US presence from the region. But Qaani, historically an Afghanistan specialist, does not speak Arabic, and did not play a prominent role in the 1979 revolution.

His low profile and lack of experience in the Middle East immediately raised serious questions over his ability to follow in the footsteps of Soleimani.

Six months since his promotion, Mina says, those doubts have played out: “Iran’s strategy in the region hasn’t changed, but they are in a much weaker position to achieve their strategic goals.

“Soleimani acted like a pop star, posing for pictures wherever he went. Qaani’s behaviour is more professional,” he said. “But he doesn’t have Soleimani’s ability to bring together people and to attract new recruits.”

Qaani, Mina adds, may be competent and experienced in managing Afghanistan and Pakistan, but “he’s not an expert in the critical areas west of Iran that the Quds Force is engaged: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Qaani doesn’t even speak Arabic.”

The results, particularly in Syria and Iraq, have been tangible.

In May, Mina told Arab News, one of the most senior officers of the Quds Force’s Syrian deployment — Brigadier Asghar Pashapour — was killed by Israel.

Israel has ramped up its air campaign against Iran in the country, but “the (Iranian) regime hides these deaths from their own people, who only find out about them when the funerals take place.”

More than ever, Mina adds, Israel is acting against Tehran with impunity.

The IRGC’s men on the ground in the war-torn country, deprived of their charismatic commander, are losing morale. By monitoring social media channels, Mina said, it has become clear that “among young members of the Basij (IRGC militia) in Syria, the mood is very low; they’re pessimistic.”

In Iraq, Tehran’s influence appears more stretched than ever. The Quds Force has faced a series of setbacks almost unimaginable under Soleimani.

Two attempts to install an Iran-friendly prime minister ended with failure, mass protests and Iranian consulates going up in flames.

Iran has now been forced to reckon with a US-friendly human rights activist prime minister — a man rumored to have provided the US with intelligence that led to the killing of Soleimani.

Worse yet, Iran’s control over the powerful Iraqi militias, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), shows signs of unravelling.

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READ MORE: The strike on Iran’s Soleimani

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Iraq’s UN envoy has affirmed that the new government’s priority is “restricting weapons to state hands” and consolidating Iraqi sovereignty.

In the Iran-Iraq war, Soleimani fought side by side with many of the men that would go on to become senior PMF leaders. The loss of these connections, coupled with a more assertive Iraqi government, threatens Iranian influence in their own backyard.

“In particular in Iraq,” Ali Alfoneh, Senior Fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Arab News, “the simultaneous killings of Major General Suleimani and (Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah leader) Abu-Muhandis caused some trouble for the Quds Force.

“Qaani lacks Soleimani's deep personal relationship with PMF commanders to facilitate a smooth transition to a new leadership.

“Militia leaders had difficulties recognizing a peer as first among equals to succeed Abu-Muhandis as PMF chief.”

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Soleimani’s death, Alfoneh says, has resulted in greater, more visible rifts among factions within the PMF.

Units loyal to Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Sistani have been increasingly open in their challenges to the leadership of the Iran-backed successor to Abu-Muhandis, Abu Fadak.

Without Soleimani’s cult of personality and ties to the leaders of various PMF militias, Alfoneh suggests there is potential for Iraqi proxies to stray even further from their Iranian patrons in the future.

“In the longer term, should the Islamic Republic find it difficult to continue its financing, arming and providing logistical support to the militias, we may see defections,” Alfoneh told Arab News.

Despite the last six months of setbacks, however, Dr. Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, cautioned that Iran “doesn’t walk away from its investments.”

“Iran’s influence through Soleimani had been based on the personal nature of relationships; this is where he was so important,” she told Arab News.

Iran is trying to adapt to these changes, changing its tactics in order to be more present and relevant. 

Dr. Sanam Vakil, Deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, UK

Now, Vakil says, they are attempting to mobilize a network of other senior figures — including Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nazrallah, Former Iranian Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani, as well as new Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani — to leverage influence in the post-Soleimani era.

This, Vakil explains, is part of a tactical shift taking place in how Iran manages its regional relationships without Soleimani.

“Soleimani could command and control,” she said.

“His personal connections provided an indisputable advantage. So over the past six months, the Islamic Republic’s relationships with its regional proxies have had to adjust and become more fluid.”

Vakil adds that Soleimani’s death forced some of these changes, but the coronavirus pandemic, the new Iraqi government and “changing dynamics on the ground in Lebanon and Syria” have also been instrumental.

“Iran is trying to adapt to these changes, changing its tactics in order to be more present and relevant,” Vakil said.

“We’re still waiting to see how this will play out.”

Soleimani’s death hurt Iran. It ushered in six months of foreign-policy failure, domestic strife during the coronavirus pandemic and a slow-motion economic collapse within Iran.

Without the “shadow commander,” the regime’s grip on its proxies and regional influence appear to be in retreat.

It would be premature, however, to count Tehran out completely.

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@CHamillStewart


UK doubles aid to war-torn Sudan

Updated 17 November 2024
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UK doubles aid to war-torn Sudan

  • Fighting broke out in April 2023 between the army under the country’s de facto ruler Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo

LONDON: The UK on Sunday announced a £113 million ($143 million) aid boost to support more than one million people affected by the war in Sudan, doubling its current package.
The new funding will be targeted at the 600,000 people in Sudan and 700,000 people in neighboring countries who have fled the conflict.
“The brutal conflict in Sudan has caused unimaginable suffering. The people of Sudan need more aid, which is why the UK is helping to provide much-needed food, shelter and education for the most vulnerable,” Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a government press release.
“The UK will never forget Sudan,” he vowed.
Fighting broke out in April 2023 between the army under the country’s de facto ruler Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
Last month, United Nations experts accused the warring sides of using “starvation tactics” against 25 million civilians, and three major aid organizations warned of a “historic” hunger crisis as families resort to eating leaves and insects.
Lammy is due to visit the UN Security Council on Monday, where his ministry said he will call on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to keep the vital Adre border crossing open indefinitely to allow aid deliveries.
“We cannot deliver aid without access. Starvation must not be used as a weapon of war,” he said.
The new funding package will support UN and NGO partners in providing food, money, shelter, medical assistance, water and sanitation, said the Foreign Office.
Deaths in the conflict are likely to be “substantially underreported,” according to a study published this week, which found more casualties in Khartoum State alone than current empirical estimates for the whole country.
 

 


Sudan women sexually exploited in Chad camps

Updated 17 November 2024
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Sudan women sexually exploited in Chad camps

  • Some victims said among those who exploited them were humanitarian workers and local security forces
  • Nidhi Kapur, who works on preventing sexual exploitation and abuse, said exploitation represents a deep failure by the aid community
  • Many of the women interviewed were unaware of the free hotline and feedback boxes put up by UN agencies to report abuse anonymously 

ADRE, Chad: Crossing into Chad, the 27-year-old thought she’d left the horrors of Sudan’s war behind: the bodies she ran over while fleeing, the screams of girls being raped, the disappearance of her husband when gunmen attacked. But now she says she has faced more suffering — being forced as a refugee to have sex to get by.
She cradled her 7-week-old son, who she asserted was the child of an aid worker who promised her money in exchange for sex.
“The children were crying. We ran out of food,” she said of her four other children. “He abused my situation.” She and other women who spoke to The Associated Press requested anonymity because they feared retribution.
Some Sudanese women and girls assert that men, including those meant to protect them such as humanitarian workers and local security forces, have sexually exploited them in Chad’s displacement sites, offering money, easier access to assistance and jobs. Such sexual exploitation in Chad is a crime.
Hundreds of thousands of people, most of them women, have streamed into Chad to escape Sudan’s civil war, which has killed over 20,000 people. Aid groups struggle to support them in growing displacement sites.
Three women spoke with the AP in the town of Adre near the Sudanese border. A Sudanese psychologist shared the accounts of seven other women and girls who either refused to speak directly with a reporter or were no longer in touch with her. The AP could not confirm their accounts.
Daral-Salam Omar, the psychologist, said all the seven told her they went along with the offers of benefits in exchange for sex out of necessity. Some sought her help because they became pregnant and couldn’t seek an abortion at a clinic for fear of being shunned by their community, she said.
“They were psychologically destroyed. Imagine a woman getting pregnant without a husband amid this situation,” Omar said.

Women who fled war in Sudan rest in a refugee camp in Adre, Chad, on Oct. 5, 2024. (AP)

Sexual exploitation during large humanitarian crises is not uncommon, especially in displacement sites. Aid groups have long struggled to combat the issue. They cite a lack of reporting by women, not enough funds to respond and a focus on first providing basic necessities.
The UN refugee agency said it doesn’t publish data on cases, citing the confidentiality and safety of victims.
People seeking protection should never have to make choices driven by survival, experts said. Nidhi Kapur, who works on preventing sexual exploitation and abuse in emergency contexts, said exploitation represents a deep failure by the aid community.
Yewande Odia, the United Nations Population’s Fund representative in Chad, said sexual exploitation is a serious violation. UN agencies said displacement camps have “safe spaces” where women can gather, along with awareness sessions, a free hotline and feedback boxes to report abuse anonymously.
Yet many of the Sudanese women said they weren’t aware of the hotline, and some said using the boxes would draw unwanted attention.
The Sudanese woman with the newborn said she was afraid to report the aid worker for fear he’d turn her in to police.
She said she approached the aid worker, a Sudanese man, after searching for jobs to buy basic necessities like soap. She asked him for money. He said he’d give her cash but only in exchange for sex.
They slept together for months, she said, and he paid the equivalent of about $12 each time. After she had the baby, he gave her a one-time payment of approximately $65 but denied it was his, she said.
The man was a Sudanese laborer for Doctors Without Borders, known by its French acronym MSF, she said.
Two other Sudanese women said Chadian men working at MSF sites— one wearing MSF clothing — solicited them after they applied for work with the organization. The men took their phone numbers and repeatedly called, saying they’d give them jobs for sex. Both women said they refused.
Christopher Lockyear, MSF’s secretary general, said the organization was not aware of the allegations and wanted to investigate. “Asking for money or sex in exchange for access to care or a job is a clear violation of our behavioral commitments,” he said.
MSF would not say how many such cases had been reported among Sudanese refugees in Chad. Last year, out of 714 complaints made about MSF staff behavior where it works globally, 264 were confirmed to be cases of abuse or inappropriate behavior including sexual exploitation, abuse of power and bullying, Lockyear said.
Lockyear said MSF is creating a pool of investigators at the global level to enhance its ability to pursue allegations.
One woman told the AP that a man with another aid group also exploited her, but she was unable to identify the organization. Omar, the psychologist, said several of the women told her they were exploited by aid workers, local and international. She gave no evidence to back up the claims.
Another woman, one of the two who alleged they were approached after seeking work with MSF, said she also refused a local policeman who approached her and promised an extra food ration card if she went to his house.
Ali Mahamat Sebey, the head official for Adre, said police are not allowed inside the camps and asserted that allegations against them of exploitation were false. With the growing influx of people, however, it’s hard to protect everyone, he said.
The women said they just want to feel safe, adding that access to jobs would lessen their vulnerability.
After most of her family was killed or abducted in Sudan’s Darfur region last year, one 19-year-old sought refuge in Chad. She didn’t have enough money to support the nieces and nephews in her care. She got a job at a restaurant in the camp but when she asked her Sudanese boss for a raise, he agreed on the condition of sex.
The money he paid was more than six times her salary. But when she got pregnant with his child, the man fled, she asserted. She rubbed her growing belly.
“If we had enough, we wouldn’t have to go out and lose our dignity,” she said.
 


The family of Israeli-American hostage pleads with Biden and Trump to bring hostages home

Updated 17 November 2024
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The family of Israeli-American hostage pleads with Biden and Trump to bring hostages home

  • “I think maybe there is new hope,” says Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, 20

TEL AVIV, Israel: Over the past two weeks, the political landscape around the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza have undergone a dramatic transformation.
The American elections, the firing of Israel’s popular defense minister, Qatar’s decision to suspend its mediation, and the ongoing war in Lebanon all seem to have pushed the possibility for a ceasefire in Gaza further away than it has been in more than a year of conflict.
Still, some families of the dozens of hostages who remain captive in Gaza are desperately hoping the changes will reignite momentum to bring their loved ones home — though the impact of Donald Trump returning to the White House and a hard-line new defense minister in Israel remains unknown.
“I think maybe there is new hope,” said Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, 20, a soldier kidnapped from his base on the Gaza border during the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023.
Alexander’s parents, Adi and Yael Alexander, who live in New Jersey, met this week with Trump and President Joe Biden in Washington and pleaded with them to work together to bring all the hostages home in a single deal.
“As a grandmother, I say, cooperate — Trump wants peace in this region, Biden has always said he wants to release the hostages, so work together and do something important for the lives of human beings,” Ben Baruch said.
She said neither leader offered specific details or plans for releasing the hostages or restarting negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire.
Talks have hit a wall in recent months, largely over Hamas’ demands for guarantees that a full hostage release will bring an end to Israel’s campaign in Gaza and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vows to continue fighting until Hamas is crushed and unable to rearm.
“We’re not involved in politics, not American and not Israeli, the families are above politics, we just want our loved ones home,” she said. “Edan was kidnapped because he was Jewish, not because he voted for a certain party.”
More than 250 people were kidnapped and 1,200 killed when Hamas militants burst across the border and carried out a bloody attack on southern Israeli communities. Israel’s campaign of retaliation since has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and some 90 percent of its 2.3 million people have been displaced.
As militants attacked on the morning of Oct. 7, Edan Alexander, then 19, was able to send a quick message to his mother amid the intense fighting around his base. He told her that despite having shrapnel embedded in his helmet from the explosions, he had managed to get to a protected area. After 7 a.m., his family lost contact.
Alexander was considered missing as the family desperately searched hospitals for him. After five days, friends recognized him in a video of Hamas militants capturing soldiers.
The family was happy: He was alive, Ben Baruch said. “But we didn’t understand what we were entering into, what is still happening now.”
When a week-long ceasefire last November brought the release of 105 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners, some of the freed hostages said they had seen Alexander in captivity. Ben Baruch said they told her Alexander kept his cool, encouraging them that everyone would be released soon.
Ben Baruch said she was disheartened when Netanyahu last week fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who she said had consistently reassured the families that the hostages were at the top of his agenda.
“I felt he was a partner,” she said. Gallant was replaced by a Netanyahu loyalist who has urged a tough line against Hamas.
A mass protest movement urging the government to reach a hostage deal has shown signs of weariness, and hostage families have struggled to keep their campaign in the headlines. A delegation of former hostages and their relatives met with the pope on Thursday and expressed hope the incoming and outgoing American administrations would bring their loved ones home.
In Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square, the headquarters of the protest movement, opinions were mixed on the effect of Trump’s election on hostages.
“I don’t think this is good for Israel or the hostages, I’m really scared of him,” said David Danino, a 45-year-old hi-tech worker from Tel Aviv. He was at Hostages Square with his family, visiting from France, who wanted to pay their respects.
Danino noted that Israel had already achieved many of its war goals, including killing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. “They are building us a photo of what is ‘victory,’ but how is there victory without the hostages?” he asked.
Others thought Trump’s reputation might help the situation.
“When he decides to do something, he does it, without blinking, and he can create ultimatums,” said Orly Vitman, a 54-year-old former special education teacher from the Tel Aviv suburb of Holon.
She comes every few months to the square with her daughter to light candles in honor of the hostages. While she was opposed to the firing of Gallant in the middle of the war, she was heartened by Trump’s election.
“We will have the legitimacy and ability to use the full force of what we know how to do,” she said.
Ben Baruch, a philanthropist and accomplished artist whose modernizt sculptures dot the Tel Aviv home where she has lived for 52 years, said she has pushed everything aside in her life to focus on the struggle to bring her grandson home. Her days are filled with meetings, interviews, rallies, protests and communal prayer sessions uniting different groups of Israelis from across the religious spectrum.
“It’s like people’s lives went back to their routine, but ours did not,” she said. “There’s nothing left to say. All the words have been said. We have heard everything. We have met with everyone. But they are still there.”


Two flares land near Netanyahu’s home in ‘serious incident’: police

Updated 17 November 2024
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Two flares land near Netanyahu’s home in ‘serious incident’: police

  • Israel's President Isaac Herzog condemned the incident in a post on X and said an investigation was underway
  • Caesarea is about 20 kilometers (12 miles) south of the Haifa city area, which Hezbollah has regularly targeted

JERUSALEM: Two flares landed near Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence on Saturday in the central town of Caesarea, security services said, describing the incident as “serious.”
“Two flares landed in the courtyard outside the prime minister’s residence,” police and the Shin Bet internal security agency said in a joint statement.
“The prime minister and his family were not in the house at the time of the incident,” they added.
“An investigation has been opened. This is a serious incident and a dangerous escalation.”
Israeli President Isaac Herzog condemned the incident and warned “against an increase in violence in the public sphere.
“I have now spoken with the head of the Shin Bet and expressed the urgent need to investigate and deal with those responsible for the incident as soon as possible,” Herzog said in a post on X.
It was not immediately clear who was behind the flares.
The incident comes after a drone attack targeting the same residence on October 19, which was later claimed by Hezbollah.
Netanyahu at the time accused Hezbollah of attempting to assassinate him and his wife.
Since September 23, Israel has escalated its bombing of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, later sending in ground troops after almost a year of limited, cross-border exchanges of fire begun by Hezbollah militants over the war in Gaza.
Caesarea is about 20 kilometers (12 miles) south of the Haifa city area, which Hezbollah has regularly targeted.
Two people were injured when a synagogue was hit in Haifa by a “heavy rocket barrage” from Hezbollah earlier Saturday, the Israeli military said.
Separately, the army said it had intercepted some of the “approximately 10 projectiles” that crossed from Lebanon into Israel.
Hezbollah claimed several rocket attacks on northern Israel, saying it targeted military sites including a naval base in the Haifa area.

 


Tunisia migrant advocate held in first ‘terrorism’ probe: rights group

Updated 16 November 2024
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Tunisia migrant advocate held in first ‘terrorism’ probe: rights group

  • Tunisia is one of the main launching points for boats carrying migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean to seek better lives in Europe

TUNIS: A prominent Tunisian advocate for migrants is in custody and his case being handled by anti-terrorist investigators, a disturbing first for the country, the head of a rights group said Saturday.
Tunisia is one of the main launching points for boats carrying migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean to seek better lives in Europe.
Abdallah Said, a Tunisian of Chadian origin, was questioned along with the secretary general and treasurer of his association, Children of the Medenine Moon, said Romdhane Ben Amor, spokesman for the Tunisian Forum for Social and Economic Rights (FTDES).
Two officers of a bank handling the association’s accounts were also detained, he said.
Ben Amor described as “a dangerous signal” the transfer of the case to anti-terrorist investigators “because it’s the first time authorities have used this against associations specializing in migration issues.”
La Presse newspaper, which is close to the government, reported that “five activists operating on behalf of an association in Medenine were in custody in order to be referred to anti-terrorism investigators.”
The newspaper said the association is suspected of receiving foreign funds “to assist sub-Saharan migrants to enter illegally onto Tunisian soil.”
Ben Amor called Said’s detention part of “a new wave of even tougher repression” against migration activists after an earlier crackdown in May.
“It’s a message to all those working in solidarity with the migrants,” he said.
In May, President Kais Saied lashed out at organizations that defend the rights of migrants, calling their leaders “traitors and mercenaries.”
The president reiterated that Tunisia must not become “a country of transit” for migrants and asylum seekers.
Saied, re-elected in October in a vote with turnout of 28.8 percent, made a sweeping power grab in 2021 and critics accuse him of ushering in a new authoritarian regime.
Under a 2023 agreement, the European Union has provided funds to Tunisia in exchange for help with curbing small-boat crossings to Europe.
EU funding rules state all money should be spent in a way that respects fundamental rights, but reports have since emerged of migrants being beaten, raped and mistreated in Tunisian custody.