BEIRUT: Lebanon’s parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel’s war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group’s ally Bashar Assad in neighboring Syria.
The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October, 2023. None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate.
The vote marks the first test of Lebanon’s power balance since the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah — which propelled its then Christian ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 — emerged badly pummelled from the war with Israel.
It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.
Reflecting the shifts, Hezbollah and its ally the Shiite Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have dropped their insistence on Suleiman Frangieh, their declared candidate for the last two years, and are ready to go with a less divisive figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said.
Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun — said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy US approval — Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Maj. Gen. Elias Al-Baysari — head of General Security, a state security agency.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he felt happy because “God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president,” according to a statement from his office.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was “a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace” and also for Lebanon’s economic and social recovery.
However, two of the sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in a second round.
Hezbollah still seen with sway
Aoun, head of Lebanon’s US-backed army, would still need 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state employee, Berri has said.
A State Department spokesperson said it was “up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor.”
“We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions,” the spokesperson said.
Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last week there was “no veto” on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States, will not support Aoun.
Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.
Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild.
Much of the damage is in Shiite majority areas.
Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad’s ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.
Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, was not certain anyone would be elected, even after the major shift in the balance of power in Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s weapons have long been a source of division.
Underlining the influence Hezbollah and Amal still wield, he said the only way a president could be elected would be if they agreed on Aoun or Azour. But if they tried to install their preferred candidate, this would “sever the oxygen from Lebanon.”
Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan said last October that Riyadh had never fully disengaged from Lebanon and that outside countries should not tell Lebanese what to do.

Bosra: Fighters in southern Syria who helped topple President Bashar Assad are reluctant to disarm and disband as ordered by the country’s new rulers, their spokesman told AFP.
An Islamist-led offensive ripped through Syria from the north and into Damascus on December 8, bringing to a sudden end five decades of rule by the Assad clan.
On December 25, the country’s new Islamist rulers said they had reached an agreement with rebel groups on their dissolution and integration under the defense ministry.
New leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa said the authorities would “absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control.”
But a spokesman for the Southern Operations Room, a coalition of armed groups from the southern province of Daraa formed on December 6 to help topple Assad, said the alliance did not agree.
“We’re not convinced by the idea of dissolving armed groups,” said its spokesman Naseem Abu Orra.
“We’re an organized force in the south... headed by officers who defected” from Assad’s army, he told AFP in Daraa’s town of Bosra.
“We can integrate the defense ministry as a pre-organized entity... We have weapons, heavy equipment,” he said.
Abu Orra said the group, led by local leader Ahmed Al-Awdeh, included thousands of men, without any Islamist affiliation.
Awdeh has good relations with former Assad ally Russia, as well as neighboring Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, sources close to his group said.
Daraa became known as the birthplace of the Syrian uprising after protests erupted there in 2011 against Assad’s rule.
As they spread across the country, government forces cracked down on the demonstrators, triggering defections from the army and one of the deadliest wars of the century.
After losing swathes of territory to rebels and jihadists, Assad’s forces clawed back control of much of the country with the backing of Iran and Russia.
Daraa returned to government control in 2018, but under a deal mediated by Russia, rebels were allowed to keep their weapons and continue to ensure security in their region.
Then, after more than 13 years of civil war that had killed more than half a million people and ravaged the country, everything changed.
In the north of Syria, an Islamist-led rebel coalition called Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) moved rapidly out of its bastion on the Turkish border to seize second city Aleppo from Assad’s forces on December 1.
Its fighters then advanced southwards toward the cities of Hama and Homs on their way to the capital.
“We... decided to begin liberating the south of the country to reach Damascus” from the other direction, Abu Orra said.
He said they elaborated their own military plans in Daraa, but there was “some coordination” with HTS in the north.
Several witnesses have told AFP that they saw Awdeh’s men, recognizable by their headdress typical of southern Syria, posted near the Central Bank and in several neighborhoods in the early hours of December 8.
By then, Assad had already fled the country, former officials have told AFP.
“It was chaos but we were briefly able to take control of vital institutions to ensure their protection,” Abu Orra said.
He said the Southern Operations Room also stood guard outside several embassies, including those of Egypt and Jordan, and led some foreign diplomats to a prominent hotel to ensure their safety.
He said “several foreign countries” had called Awdeh to request his help.
When HTS forces arrived in town at the end of the afternoon, the Southern Operations Room withdrew to Daraa to avoid “chaos or armed clashes,” Abu Orra said.
Two days later, Awdeh met Syria’s new leader Sharaa. But he did not attend the December 25 meeting during which other rebel factions agreed to disband and join a future army.