Should Pakistan’s baffling COVID-19 test numbers ring alarm bells?

Health officials wearing protective gear take a nasal swab sample from a young boy, center, at a screening and testing facility for the COVID-19 coronavirus, in Hyderabad, Pakistan on June 26, 2020. (AFP)
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Updated 27 June 2020
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Should Pakistan’s baffling COVID-19 test numbers ring alarm bells?

  • Figures reported by provincial authorities vary from those quoted by central body dealing with outbreak
  • Pakistan has only managed to hit the 31,681 tests per day mark against the 50,000 suggested by WHO

LAHORE: Two months after Pakistan detected its first coronavirus patient on February 26, the country’s senior most health official, Dr. Zafar Mirza, admitted in a press briefing that the state could only test 6,500 samples of the virus in a day.
A recent report by the World Health Organization (WHO) insisted that Pakistan should be conducting over 50,000 tests per day.
Pakistan had fallen short of the ambitious April 7 target set by federal minister Asad Umar who chaired the National Command and Control Center (NCOC), the central body for decision-making about COVID-19 in the country.
Umar had promised to push the testing beyond 25,000 per day by end April — a target that couldn’t be met.
Even by May, the capacity was low, and the actual tests being conducted were even lower, below 14,000 per day.
Test numbers were barely crawling at a time when the government had begun phasing out restrictive measures for the population of over 207 million.
But the month of June saw a major turnaround. Pakistan registered an astronomical rise, both in its testing capacity and the specimens it was diagnosing.
On June 17, it listed its capacity as 32,000 tests per day for active cases. Four days later, that number almost doubled.
Pakistan now has the infrastructure to test over 71,780 samples in a day at 132 commercial and public laboratories, according to the NCOC.
There are three functioning labs each in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, five in Balochistan, 16 in Islamabad, 17 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 26 in Sindh, 33 in Punjab, 26 run by the armed forces and three by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
But a closer examination of the data by Arab News highlighted discrepancies in the official tally of each province and that of the central body.
According to the data on the NCOC website, there are three medical labs in Gilgit-Baltistan with a capacity to diagnose 200 samples daily.
But Faizullah Firaq, the spokesperson for Gilgit-Baltistan, told Arab News that of these, there are only two civilian testing labs for the whole federating unit, with a maximum output of only 70 tests per day.
Similarly, the NCOC notes down 16 laboratories in Islamabad, even though Dr. Hasan Orooj, the director general health in the capital city, told Arab News there were only 13 labs in the capital.
The capacity of the laboratories according to the NCOC totals to under 15,000 tests, much below the proclaimed 71,780 capacity.
Although, it is unclear how many samples can the labs run by the Pakistan military diagnose. But the military added seven new labs to its tally in a single day on June 22.
Even with the increase in test capacity, as claimed, Pakistan has only managed to hit the 31,681 tests per day mark, its highest to date, on June 19.
A senior health official, who sits in the meetings of the NCOC, credited the increase in testing to the government quickly rolling out new laboratories. “In fact, we can test over 78,000 per day,” he said, over the phone on Tuesday, requesting not to be named. “The NCOC website has to be updated,” he added.
Further adding to the confusion was a statement by Pakistan’s information minister. In a press briefing on Tuesday, the minister said the country’s testing capacity was 50,000 tests daily from 129 labs.
While Pakistan’s testing numbers are ambiguous, how many people should the country ideally be testing per day?
“At a minimum, the number of tests should reflect the number of suspected new cases that appear each day,” Frederico Guanais, the deputy head of the health division at the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), told Arab News via email, “Everyone that has flu-like symptoms, plus all of the people that were in contact with them within the previous 14 days.”
One good metric is provided by France.
The European nation starts from the number of new cases it is recording, Guanais explained.
It then assumes that on average one person has 25 contacts. Finally, it adds one-third of that number to the total and sets a target for its testing campaign.
Using the French formula, if Pakistan is recording 6,000 new cases per day of Covid-19, that should equal to 200,000 tests per day, “which is significantly lower” than the upward to 30,000 tests it is carrying out right now, Guanais adds.
Another guiding principal, to determine a testing benchmark is through the positive-test approach.
The positivity of tests is the percentage of tests that come back positive. As a rule, countries should aim to keep this number low.
According to the WHO in March, countries where testing has been done fairly extensively the positivity percentage ranges between 3% and 12%.
Frederico Guanais agrees. He cites the findings of Our World in Data, which shows that in South Korea and Germany, the positive tests never crossed 10%, even at the peak of their infections. Moreover, their latest percentage is below 1%.
“Higher positive rates suggest that tests are being conducted only on people with very high probability of having the infection,” Guanais said, “Many people with mild or no symptoms are probably not being detected.”
Pakistan’s positivity rate, as per a WHO report, is 16%. “Pakistan is above the 3% to 12% indicated by WHO. This suggests that Pakistan should probably be testing more,” the OECD health official added.
“It is important to test quickly, but also test in a targeted fashion. In a way that can be described as hunting the virus, instead of chasing after it,” Guanais said.


Pakistan parliament approves bills to extend tenure of services chiefs to five years

Updated 04 November 2024
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Pakistan parliament approves bills to extend tenure of services chiefs to five years

  • Extension in services of army, navy and air force chiefs follows controversial amendments to the constitution last month
  • The opposition PTI party condemns the amendments for changing Pakistan “from a democracy into a monarchy”

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s National Assembly and Senate on Monday approved bills to extend the tenure of the army, navy, and air force chiefs from three to five years, amid protests by the opposition benches. 

The office of the army chief is considered to be the most powerful in the country, with the army having ruled Pakistan for almost half of its 75-year history. Even when not directly in power, the army is considered to be the invisible guiding hand in politics and holds considerable sway in internal security, foreign policy, and economic affairs, among other domains. 

Six bills were passed by the upper and lower houses on Monday evening, including one to increase the term of the services chiefs.

“In the said Act, in section 8A, in sub-section (1), for the expression “three (03)” the word “five (05)” shall be substituted,” read the bill, seeking to amend the Pakistan Army Act, 1952.

Similar bills were passed to increase the duration of the country’s naval and air force chiefs to five years also. 

“The purpose of these amendments are to make consistent the Pakistan Army Act, 1952 (XXXIX of 1952) The Pakistan Navy Ordinance, 1961 (Ordinance No. XXXV of 1961) and The Pakistan Air Force Act, 1953 (VI of 1953) with the maximum tenure of the Chief of the Army Staff, the Chief of the Naval Staff and the Chief of the Air Staff and to make consequential amendments for uniformity in the aforementioned laws.” 

Speaking outside parliament, the chairman of the opposition PTI party, Gohar Ali Khan, said:

“Today, democracy has been changed into a monarchy.”

Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, Omar Ayub Khan, said “modifying the service chiefs’ tenure is not a good thing for the country and the armed forces.”

The passage of the new bills follows controversial amendments made to the constitution last month, granting lawmakers the authority to nominate the chief justice of Pakistan, who previously used to be automatically appointed according to the principle of seniority.

The amendments allowed the government to bypass the senior-most judge of the Supreme Court, Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, and appoint Justice Yahya Afridi as the country’s top judge, replacing former chief justice Qazi Faez Isa. 

The opposition and the legal fraternity had opposed the amendments, arguing that they were aimed at granting more power to the executive in making judicial appointments and curtailing the independence of the judiciary. The government denies this.


Pakistani forces kill six militants in shootouts near border with Afghanistan — military

Updated 04 November 2024
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Pakistani forces kill six militants in shootouts near border with Afghanistan — military

  • Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan, has witnessed a number of attacks recently
  • Pakistan blames the surge in militancy on militants operating out of Afghanistan, Kabul denies the allegations

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani security forces have killed six militants in two separate engagements in the country’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, the Pakistani military said on Monday.
A militant was killed in an exchange of fire during an intelligence-based operation in North Waziristan’s Dosali area, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media wing.
In the second incident, Pakistani forces intercepted a group of militants while infiltrating the country’s border with Afghanistan in the South Waziristan district. Five militants were killed as a result.
“Pakistan has consistently been asking Interim Afghan Government to ensure effective border management on their side of the border,” the ISPR said in a statement.
“Interim Afghan Government is expected to fulfil its obligations and deny the use of Afghan soil by Khwarij [militants] for perpetuating acts of terrorism against Pakistan.”
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which borders Afghanistan, has witnessed a number of attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups that targeted security forces convoys and check posts, besides targeted killings and kidnappings of law enforcers and government officials in recent months.
Pakistan has frequently accused neighboring Afghanistan of sheltering and supporting militant groups, urging the Taliban administration in Kabul to prevent its territory from being used by armed factions to launch cross-border attacks.
Afghan officials, however, deny involvement, insisting Pakistan’s security issues are an internal matter of Islamabad.
 


Pakistan Navy test-fires ship-launched ballistic missile ranging 350 kilometers

Updated 04 November 2024
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Pakistan Navy test-fires ship-launched ballistic missile ranging 350 kilometers

  • The missile is capable of striking land and sea targets with ‘high precision’
  • Pakistan, India consider their missile programs as deterrent against each other

KARACHI: Pakistan Navy has successfully test-fired a ship-launched ballistic missile having a range of 350 km and capable of striking both land and sea targets, it said on Monday.
Pakistan sees its missile development as a deterrent against nuclear-armed arch-foe India. Both countries have fought multiple wars since their independence from Britain in 1947.
The two South Asian neighbors have long been developing missiles of varying ranges in a bid to ensure deterrence against possible attacks from each other, with analysts often warning these developments could push the region into an arms race.
“Pakistan Navy conducted a successful flight test of an indigenously developed ship-launched ballistic missile,” the Directorate General of Public Relations (DGPR) of Pakistan Navy said in a statement.
“The weapon system with 350km range is capable of engaging land and sea targets with high precision.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikldB3jieWo
The flight test of the weapon system, equipped with a state-of-the-art navigation system and maneuverability features, was witnessed by Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Naveed Ashraf, senior naval officers, scientists and engineers.
President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir and Chief of Air Staff Air Marshal Zaheer Ahmad Babar Sidhu congratulated the participating navy units and scientists on the development.
 
 


Qatar investment team due in Pakistan this month, PM Sharif says after Doha visit

Updated 04 November 2024
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Qatar investment team due in Pakistan this month, PM Sharif says after Doha visit

  • The statement comes days after Sharif visited Qatar seeking to bolster economic cooperation between both nations
  • Before arriving in Doha, Sharif attended the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh and met the Saudi Crown Prince

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Monday a team of the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) will visit Pakistan this month to set up an information technology (IT) park in the South Asian country.
The statement came days after Sharif visited Qatar while seeking to bolster economic cooperation amid Pakistan’s efforts to boost foreign investment to stabilize its frail $350 billion economy.
Before arriving in Doha, Sharif attended the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he discussed trade and investment with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Speaking at a meeting of his cabinet, Sharif said a QIA team will visit Pakistan this month, while its chief of Asia-Pacific & Africa Investments, Faisal Bin Thani Al Thani, will also arrive in Islamabad by the end of this month.
“Qatar emir said the same thing. They also suggested setting up an IT park here [in Pakistan],” Sharif told his cabinet members in televised comments.
During his visit, Sharif led delegation-level talks with the Qatari emir before holding a separate meeting with him to discuss a wide array of issues.
“The leaders reviewed the entire spectrum of Pakistan-Qatar relations, exploring potential avenues for enhanced cooperation in trade, potential areas of investment, energy, and culture,” Sharif’s office said last week.
He also met a delegation of the Qatar Businessmen Association (QBA) and invited them to invest in Pakistan’s energy, infrastructure and technology sectors.
The developments came amid Pakistan’s attempts to increase trade and foreign investment after it narrowly escaped a default last year by securing a last-gasp $3 billion financial assistance package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The South Asian country has since sought to promote closer economic ties with regional and international allies to bolster its fragile economy, which has been suffering from a prolonged macroeconomic crisis.
 


Pakistan central bank cuts key rate by 250 bps to 15%

Updated 04 November 2024
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Pakistan central bank cuts key rate by 250 bps to 15%

  • Monday’s move follows cuts of 150 bps in June, 100 in July and 200 in September
  • It takes the total policy rate cuts in the country to 700 bps in under five months

KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points to 15 percent on Monday, it said in a statement, for a fourth straight reduction since June, as the country keeps up efforts to revive a sluggish economy with inflation easing.
Most respondents in a Reuters poll last week expected a cut of 200 bps after inflation moved down sharply from a multi-decade high of nearly 40 percent in May 2023, saying reductions were needed to bolster growth.
Average consumer price index inflation in the South Asian country is 8.7 percent in the current financial year, which started in July, the statistics bureau says. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects inflation to average 9.5 percent for the year ending June.
Monday’s move follows cuts of 150 bps in June, 100 bps in July, and 200 in September that have taken the rate from an all-time high of 22 percent, set in June 2023 and left unchanged for a year. It takes the total cuts to 700 bps in under five months.
October inflation came in at 7.2 percent, slightly above the government’s expectation of 6 percent to 7 percent. The finance ministry expects inflation to slow further to 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent in November.
However, inflation could pick up again in 2025, driven by electricity and gas price increases after a new $7-billion IMF bailout, and the potential impact of taxes on the retail, wholesale and the farm sector announced in the June budget to take effect in January 2025, some analysts say.