Oil prices set for modest recovery on OPEC+ cuts

Analysts expect global demand to contract by between about 6.5 million-8.7 million bpd this year, compared with last month’s prediction of 6.4 million-10 million bpd. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 01 July 2020
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Oil prices set for modest recovery on OPEC+ cuts

  • Experts say a resurging virus could bring further restrictions and stifle demand

BENGALURU: Oil prices will consolidate at around $40 a barrel this year, with a recovery gaining steam in the fourth quarter and into 2021 on OPEC-led production cuts and as economies limp back from coronavirus lockdowns, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

The survey of 45 analysts forecast benchmark Brent crude would average $40.41 a barrel in 2020, up from a forecast of $37.58 in a similar survey last month.

The global benchmark has averaged $42.10 so far this year. It was trading just below $42 a barrel on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $39.19.

The poll estimated the price of WTI would average $36.10 a barrel this year, up from a forecast of $32.78 in the May survey.

Of the 37 contributors who participated in both the May and June polls, 26 raised their 2020 Brent forecasts.

“The pace of this recovery will remain modest in the third quarter,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas.

But he said it would “accelerate in Q4 under the combined effect of voluntary output restraints by OPEC+ producers, market-driven production declines and a sequential recovery in demand with the reinstatement of economic activity reinforced by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.”

Under a new agreement the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, have been cutting output since May by a record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to support prices and demand hit by the pandemic.

OPEC+ compliance with the cuts in May was 87 percent.

However, analysts warned that a global rise in COVID-19 cases, which is approaching the 10.5 million mark, could potentially spark further restrictions and slow any economic recovery, and in turn, demand.

Analysts expect global demand to contract by between about 6.5 million-8.7 million bpd this year, compared with last month’s prediction of 6.4 million-10 million bpd.

“End-2020 demand will likely fall well short of end-2019 levels given that people will take some time to return to their old habits after restrictions are lifted,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.


Saudi money supply hits $791bn as demand deposits regain ground 

Updated 13 March 2025
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Saudi money supply hits $791bn as demand deposits regain ground 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s money supply climbed to SR2.97 trillion ($791 billion) in January, marking a 9 percent annual rise, official data showed. 

According to figures from the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, demand deposits accounted for 48.75 percent of the total, reaching SR1.45 trillion. While still below the April 2021 peak of 60.21 percent, they edged up from 48.42 percent a year ago, reflecting shifting monetary conditions. 

Time and savings deposits — which surged during the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes, mirrored by Saudi Arabia due to the riyal’s peg to the US dollar — reached SR985.03 billion in January, accounting for 33.21 percent of total deposits. 

As the Fed began easing monetary policy in September, lowering interest rates from their 6 percent peak to 5 percent by December, time deposits started to decline from their 33.61 percent high in November.  

This shift reflects a gradual return to shorter-term deposit preferences as rate-sensitive accounts adjust to a lower-yield environment.   

The third-largest category, other quasi-money deposits — including residents’ foreign currency accounts, marginal deposits for letters of credit, outstanding remittances, and bank repo transactions with the private sector — stood at SR301.28 billion, making up 10.16 percent of total deposits. Currency outside banks totaled SR233.71 billion. 

Over the past two years, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation led to a rise in term deposits as customers sought higher-yielding accounts, but with benchmark rates now easing, demand deposits have started to regain share.   

Despite the 9 percent annual rise in money supply, deposit growth continues to lag behind bank lending, which surged 14.66 percent during the same period to exceed SR3 trillion for the first time. This growth has been driven by corporate credit expansion, particularly in real estate, infrastructure, and other key Vision 2030 sectors. 

As deposit inflows moderate, Saudi banks have increasingly turned to external borrowing to bridge funding gaps. Recent issuances of euro-denominated bonds highlight the evolving financing landscape, with the debt capital market playing an increasingly pivotal role. 

Speaking at the Capital Markets Forum 2025 in Riyadh in February, Mohammad Al-Faadhel, assistant deputy of financing at the Capital Market Authority, highlighted how Vision 2030 has transformed Saudi Arabia from a capital exporter to a credit-driven market, accelerating debt market growth. 

Al-Faadhel noted that the Sukuk and Development Capital Market Committee was established in collaboration with key stakeholders to remove obstacles and support market expansion.  

With ongoing structural reforms, Saudi Arabia’s financial ecosystem is evolving rapidly, setting the stage for continued growth in capital markets, corporate lending, and alternative financing mechanisms under Vision 2030.   

Loan-to-deposit ratio holds steady

Saudi Arabia’s loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 82.78 percent in January, up from 80.05 percent in the same month last year, yet slightly lower than December’s 83.24 percent, according to SAMA data. 

The LDR, a key banking metric, measures the proportion of loans issued by banks relative to their total deposits, indicating liquidity levels and lending capacity. 

The increase over the past year reflects strong credit demand, particularly from corporate borrowers in key Vision 2030 sectors such as real estate, infrastructure, and industrial expansion. 

However, the slight month-on-month decline suggests a stabilization in lending activity, as banks balance loan issuance with available deposit inflows. Despite the surge in credit, the LDR remains well below the regulatory cap of 90 percent, ensuring ample liquidity and financial stability within the banking system. 

This ratio is closely monitored by regulators and investors as it influences banks’ ability to extend new loans while maintaining a healthy funding base.  


BSF, Diriyah Co. ink $1.6bn financing deal to develop Wadi Safar project

Updated 13 March 2025
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BSF, Diriyah Co. ink $1.6bn financing deal to develop Wadi Safar project

JEDDAH: Banque Saudi Fransi has signed a financing deal worth SR6 billion ($1.6 billion) with Diriyah Co. to develop the Wadi Safar project, highlighting the private sector’s role in driving economic growth.

The development is a key cultural and tourism destination within the larger Diriyah area, which aims to attract over 50 million visitors by 2030 while supporting major initiatives, according to the bank, which rebranded as BSF in June after 48 years in the market.

During the signing ceremony, Bader Al-Salloom, CEO of BSF, and Jerry Inzerillo, CEO of Diriyah Co., emphasized the importance of this partnership in achieving sustainable development and enhancing Diriyah’s position as a prominent cultural and historical hub.

The agreement between the two parties aligns with Saudi Vision 2030’s goal of transforming the Kingdom into a global tourist destination. The Diriyah Gate Development Authority has set a precedent by blending respect for heritage with innovative, sustainable ventures, such as Al-Bujairi Terrace, which has become a major tourist attraction since its opening in 2022.

The deal is also part of BSF’s initiatives to back significant development projects that boost infrastructure, promote tourism, and drive economic growth in Saudi Arabia, the bank said in a statement.

The Wadi Safar project, introduced in December 2023 by the DGDA, is one of the three main initiatives under the Diriyah Co’s development plan.

It covers an area of approximately 62 sq. km and is set to become an upscale residential community, including high-end hospitality facilities, recreational and sports venues, and advanced commercial and retail spaces.

The project will offer premium real estate units designed to cater to the needs of both investors and visitors. Moreover, Wadi Safar’s gated community will serve as an oasis within Riyadh, featuring three major resorts: Six Senses, Aman, and Oberoi.

It is also the location for the ongoing development of the Greg Norman-designed championship signature golf course and Royal Diriyah Golf Club.

The Diriyah development project aims to generate around 178,000 job opportunities and is expected to contribute SR18.6 billion to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product upon completion.


UAE joins dividend surge as global payouts hit record $1.75tn in 2024

Updated 13 March 2025
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UAE joins dividend surge as global payouts hit record $1.75tn in 2024

RIYADH: The UAE was among 17 countries setting new dividend records in 2024 as global payouts surged to a record $1.75 trillion, marking a 6.6 percent increase from the previous year, a new report showed. 

According to research by trading platform eToro, UAE-listed companies maintained steady dividend distributions, driven by strong performances in the banking, energy, and real estate sectors.  

This comes as Saudi-listed companies also made significant dividend moves in 2024, with energy firm Aramco declaring a total payout of $85.4 billion despite a drop in net profit, while Al Rajhi Bank’s total shareholder payments reached SR10.84 billion ($2.89 billion), combining a first-half cash dividend of SR5 billion and a second-half payout of SR5.84 billion. 

“The financial sector has been a standout performer, with UAE banks benefiting from higher interest rates and economic expansion. Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, for instance, raised its dividend payout to 50 percent of its annual profit, reflecting the sector’s robust earnings growth,” said Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro. 

Energy companies also played a significant role, with ADNOC Gas announcing a $3.41 billion dividend, supported by high oil prices and a commitment to 5 percent annual dividend growth. 

In the real estate sector, Emaar Properties doubled its dividend to 8.8 billion dirhams ($2.4 billion), backed by record property sales and strong market demand.  

For income-focused investors, dividends remain a core element of long-term strategies, providing consistent cash flow and potential for compounding returns.  

“While 2024 saw record dividend distributions, certain increases, such as Emaar’s 100 percent payout of its share capital, may not be repeated annually. These sectors are cyclical, and dividends could fluctuate with market conditions,” Gilbert added. 

Despite concerns about sustainability, UAE companies’ focus on shareholder returns highlights the market’s resilience. The country’s dividend growth outlook remains positive, supported by strong corporate earnings, favorable government policies, and continued investor interest. 

Whether targeting high yields or steady income, the UAE remains an attractive market for global investors. 


Lebanon finalizes 22 deals with Saudi Arabia ahead of high-level visit 

Updated 13 March 2025
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Lebanon finalizes 22 deals with Saudi Arabia ahead of high-level visit 

RIYADH: Lebanon has finalized 22 cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, setting the stage for a high-level visit next month to strengthen economic ties. 

The delegation could be led by President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, or both, according to Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri in an interview with Asharq. 

This comes as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted President Aoun at the Royal Court in Al-Yamamah Palace on March 3 — Aoun’s first foreign visit since taking office — where they discussed Lebanon’s ongoing crisis and regional developments. 

The agreements, covering sectors from agriculture to intellectual property, are seen as crucial to securing broader international aid for Lebanon’s struggling economy. 

“This is a legitimate approach, and we must earn the trust of Arab nations and the international community,” Mitri said, emphasizing that Saudi Arabia’s support is vital for unlocking further international aid. He confirmed that the 22 agreements are fully drafted and ready for signing. 

On his arrival, Aoun had expressed hope that his talks with the crown prince would pave the way for a follow-up visit to sign agreements aimed at strengthening cooperation between the two nations. 

The deals cover a wide range of sectors, including intellectual property, consumer protection, and environmental management, as well as agriculture and water resources, Rabih El-Amine, chairman of the Lebanese Executives Council, told Arab News earlier this month. 

El-Amine also pointed to agreements involving the Ministry of Information, the General Directorate of Civil Aviation, and Banque du Liban. 

Mitri further revealed that Lebanon is working on an independent fund — separate from government institutions handling refugee affairs — in partnership with international organizations to oversee post-war reconstruction efforts. This move aims to boost credibility with donors, especially in the wake of the recent Hezbollah-Israeli conflict. 

A World Bank report commissioned by the Lebanese government estimates the country needs roughly $11 billion for recovery and reconstruction. The report assessed damage across 10 key sectors, projecting infrastructure repairs at $3 billion to $5 billion in public sector funding, while housing, trade, industry, and tourism would require $6 billion to $8 billion in private investments. 

Mitri also noted that France has expressed willingness to host a conference to support Lebanon’s recovery. French officials have proposed preparatory meetings or merging them into a single event, though no date has been set. The conference would prioritize humanitarian aid and reconstruction, while a separate investment-focused event aims to attract international figures. 


Qatar to supply gas to Syria with US nod: sources

Updated 13 March 2025
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Qatar to supply gas to Syria with US nod: sources

BEIRUT: Qatar is set to begin supplying Syria with gas via Jordan to boost the nation’s meager power supply, three people familiar with the matter said, in a move that a US official said had Washington’s approval.