Can Putin’s Syria peace plea reconcile Tehran and Ankara?

Vladimir Putin speaks with Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani during a video conference call, dedicated to the conflict in Syria, in Moscow, Russia, July 1, 2020. (Reuters)
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Updated 04 July 2020
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Can Putin’s Syria peace plea reconcile Tehran and Ankara?

  • To what extent the three countries can agree on genuine political transition remains unclear, especially with Ankara and Tehran supporting vastly different regional agendas
  • During the televised video conference, Rouhani again pledged his country’s support for the “legal government of Bashar Assad”

ANKARA: Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged his counterparts in Turkey and Iran to encourage peaceful dialogue between rival forces in Syria in a bid to end the country’s bitter 9-year war.

Speaking during a televised video conference with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani on July 1, the Russian leader said: “An inclusive inter-Syrian dialogue should be actively promoted within the framework of the constitutional committee in Geneva. I propose to support this process, to help the participants to meet and start a direct dialogue.”

To what extent the three countries can agree on genuine political transition remains unclear, however, especially with Ankara and Tehran supporting vastly different regional agendas.

But Galip Dalay, a visiting scholar at the University of Oxford, believes one thing is certain: In Idlib, the so-called “Astana three” have effectively become the “Astana two,” with Ankara and Moscow excluding Iran.

“This, in turn, gives Iran added motivation to undermine any Turkish-Russian deal,” he told Arab News.

“While both Iran and Turkish interests are aligned when it comes to opposing the territorial disintegration of Syria and a larger US role, their priorities conflict almost on everything else,” he said.

“They can try to keep a conflict management process on track, but the divergence between them is only getting larger.”

Russia and Iran have been the main supporters of President Bashar Assad’s regime, while Turkey backs the opposition. The three countries began cooperating to reduce the fighting in Syria as part of a diplomatic process dating back to 2017.

Bedir Mulla Reshid, a researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul, said that Iran and Turkey have been in indirect confrontation on Syria since the civil war began.

“Turkey has supported the Syrian political and military opposition, both in the face of the Assad regime and the sectarian militias sent to Syria by Iran. As for Iran, from the first day it stood beside Assad regime, and is one of the two main parties that refused to allow the regime to fall,” he told Arab News.  

During the televised video conference, Rouhani again pledged his country’s support for the “legal government of Bashar Assad.”

The next trilateral meeting between the guarantor countries is expected to be held in Iran, but a date has yet to be specified.

Meanwhile, a third round of Syrian constitutional committee talks overseen by the UN are set to be held next month.

The 150-member committee, which was launched in Geneva on October 2019, includes Syrian government and opposition leaders, as well as civic representatives.

Ankara has stopped the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which it considers a terror group, from taking part in the Geneva talks.

According to Reshid, Iran hopes to strengthen its influence in Syria through its military militias and relief institutions.

Joe Macaron, a Middle East foreign policy analyst at the Washington-based Arab Center, said that regional dynamics, especially the US Caesar Act sanctions on Syria, “make it difficult to imagine a path forward to reach a political settlement.”

The Caesar Act entered into force on June 17, 2020, with sanctions targeting the Syrian government for war crimes.

“Idlib remains a contentious issue between Turkey and Russia, while competition continues between Moscow and Washington in northeast Syria,” Macaron told Arab News.

He said that the rival countries “seem to be interested in buying time to consolidate their influence” and are not ready to resolve the conflict under the current terms.

However, the Syrian regime’s willingness to implement a political transition by giving concessions is also open to doubt.

“Damascus blocked the political process and tried to disrupt committee meetings in Geneva,” Anton Mardasov, a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute’s Syria program, told Arab News.

“This whole process is a fiction, which Russia is trying to demonstrate under the guise of a real compromise,” he added.

Mardasov believes that a compromise solution is unlikely in a short term, with presidential elections due in Syria and Iran in 2021.

“Moscow is trying to return to the idea of ​​a transitional government. The main focus of the negotiations between Turkey and Russia seems to be about the eastern part of Syria. Moscow is likely to approve Ankara’s operations to put pressure on the Kurds again,” he said.


Israel records 160 launches fom Lebanon as Hezbollah targets Tel Aviv, south

Israeli security forces and people inspect a damaged house at a site hit by rockets fired from Lebanon in Rinatya village.
Updated 7 sec ago
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Israel records 160 launches fom Lebanon as Hezbollah targets Tel Aviv, south

  • Medical agencies reported that at least 11 people were wounded, including a man in a “moderate to serious” condition

JERUSALEM: Israel’s army said Hezbollah fired around 160 projectiles into its territory from Lebanon on Sunday, with the group saying its attacks had targeted the Tel Aviv area and Israel’s south.
The Iran-backed group said in a statement that it had “launched, for the first time, an aerial attack using a swarm of attack drones on the Ashdod naval base” in southern Israel.
Later, it said it fired “a barrage of advanced missiles and a swarm of attack drones” at a “military target” in Tel Aviv, and had also launched a volley of missiles at the Glilot army intelligence base in the city’s suburbs.
The Israeli military did not comment on the specific attack claims when contacted by AFP.
But it said earlier that air raid sirens had sounded in several locations in central and northern Israel, including in the greater Tel Aviv suburbs.
It later reported that “approximately 160 projectiles that were fired by the Hezbollah terrorist organization have crossed from Lebanon into Israel.”
Some of the projectiles were shot down.
Medical agencies reported that at least 11 people were wounded, including a man in a “moderate to serious” condition.
AFP images from Petah Tikva, near Tel Aviv, showed several damaged and burned-out cars, and a house pockmarked by shrapnel.
The wave of projectiles follows at least four deadly Israeli strikes in central Beirut in the past week, including one that killed Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif.
In a speech on Wednesday, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem had said the response to the recent strikes on the capital “must be expected on central Tel Aviv.”
The Lebanese army, meanwhile, said that a soldier was killed on Sunday and 18 others injured, “including some with severe wounds, as a result of an Israeli attack targeting a Lebanese army center in Amriyeh.”
Though the Lebanese army is not a party to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli strikes have killed 19 Lebanese soldiers in the last two months, authorities have said.
Since September 23, Israel has intensified its Lebanon air campaign, later sending in ground troops after nearly a year of limited exchanges of fire initiated by Hezbollah in support of its ally Hamas after the Palestinian group’s October 7, 2023 attack, which sparked the Gaza war.
Lebanon’s health ministry says at least 3,670 people have been killed in the country since October 2023, most of them since September this year.


Israeli strike on Lebanese army center kills soldier, wounds 18 others

Updated 24 November 2024
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Israeli strike on Lebanese army center kills soldier, wounds 18 others

  • It was the latest in a series of Israeli strikes that have killed over 40 Lebanese troops
  • Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister condemned it as an assault on US-led ceasefire efforts

BEIRUT: An Israeli strike on a Lebanese army center on Sunday killed one soldier and wounded 18 others, the Lebanese military said.

It was the latest in a series of Israeli strikes that have killed over 40 Lebanese troops, even as the military has largely kept to the sidelines in the war between Israel and Hezbollah militants.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which has said previous strikes on Lebanese troops were accidental and that they are not a target of its campaign against Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, condemned it as an assault on US-led ceasefire efforts, calling it a “direct, bloody message rejecting all efforts and ongoing contacts” to end the war.

“(Israel is) again writing in Lebanese blood a brazen rejection of the solution that is being discussed,” a statement from his office read.

The strike occurred in southwestern Lebanon on the coastal road between Tyre and Naqoura, where there has been heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah began firing rockets, missiles and drones into Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of the Gaza Strip ignited the war there. Hezbollah has portrayed the attacks as an act of solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas. Iran supports both armed groups.

Israel has launched retaliatory airstrikes since the rocket fire began, and in September the low-level conflict erupted into all-out war, as Israel launched waves of airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon and killed Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and several of his top commanders.

Israeli airstrikes early Saturday pounded central Beirut, killing at least 20 people and wounding 66, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Hezbollah has continued to fire regular barrages into Israel, forcing people to race for shelters and occasionally killing or wounding them.

Israeli attacks have killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The fighting has displaced about 1.2 million people, or a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

On the Israeli side, about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed by bombardments in northern Israel and in battle following Israel’s ground invasion in early October. Around 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from the country’s north.

The Biden administration has spent months trying to broker a ceasefire, and US envoy Amos Hochstein was back in the region last week.

The emerging agreement would pave the way for the withdrawal of Hezbollah militants and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon below the Litani River in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war. Lebanese troops would patrol the area, with the presence of UN peacekeepers.

Lebanon’s army reflects the religious diversity of the country and is respected as a national institution, but it does not have the military capability to impose its will on Hezbollah or resist Israel’s invasion.


EU’s Borrell urges pressure on Israel, Hezbollah to accept US ceasefire proposal

Updated 24 November 2024
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EU’s Borrell urges pressure on Israel, Hezbollah to accept US ceasefire proposal

  • The EU’s foreign policy chief warned that Lebanon was “on the brink of collapse”

BEIRUT: The European Union’s foreign policy chief called on Sunday during a visit to Beirut for pressure to be exerted on both the Israeli government and on Lebanon’s Hezbollah to accept a US ceasefire proposal.
Speaking at a news conference in Beirut, Josep Borell also urged Lebanese leaders to pick a president to end a two-year power vacuum in the country, and he pledged 200 million euros in support for Lebanon’s armed forces. 

Lebanon on 'brink of collapse'

The EU’s foreign policy chief warned that Lebanon was “on the brink of collapse” after Israel launched an intense air campaign two months ago following nearly a year of clashes with Hezbollah.
“Back in September I came and was still hoping we could prevent a full-fledged war of Israel attacking Lebanon. Two months later Lebanon is on the brink of collapse,” Josep Borrell told reporters in Beirut.


Israeli army orders Gaza City suburb evacuated, spurring new displacement wave

Updated 24 November 2024
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Israeli army orders Gaza City suburb evacuated, spurring new displacement wave

  • Israeli military blames Hamas rocket fire for renewed evacuation directive
  • Palestinians say hospitals in north Gaza barely functioning

CAIRO: The Israeli military issued new evacuation orders to residents in areas of an eastern Gaza City suburb, setting off a new wave of displacement on Sunday, and a Gaza hospital director was injured in an Israeli drone attack, Palestinian medics said.
The new orders for the Shejaia suburb posted by the Israeli army spokesperson on X on Saturday night were blamed on Palestinian militants firing rockets from that heavily built-up district in the north of the Gaza Strip.
“For your safety, you must evacuate immediately to the south,” the military’s post said. The rocket volley on Saturday was claimed by Hamas’ armed wing, which said it had targeted an Israeli army base over the border.
Footage circulated on social and Palestinian media, which Reuters could not immediately verify, showed residents leaving Shejaia on donkey carts and rickshaws, with others, including children carrying backpacks, walking.
Families living in the targeted areas began fleeing their homes after nightfall on Saturday and into Sunday’s early hours, residents and Palestinian media said — the latest in multiple waves of displacement since the war began 13 months ago.
In central Gaza, health officials said at least 10 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes on the urban camps of Al-Maghazi and Al-Bureij since Saturday night.
Hospital director wounded by gunfire
In north Gaza, where Israeli forces have been operating against regrouping Hamas militants since early last month, health officials said an Israeli drone dropped bombs on Kamal Adwan Hospital, injuring its director Hussam Abu Safiya.
“This will not stop us from completing our humanitarian mission and we will continue to do this job at any cost,” Abu Safiya said in a video statement circulated by the health ministry on Sunday.
“We are being targeted daily. They targeted me a while ago but this will not deter us...,” he said from his hospital bed.
Israeli forces say armed militants use civilian buildings including housing blocks, hospitals and schools for operational cover. Hamas denies this, accusing Israeli forces of indiscriminately targeting populated areas.
Kamal Adwan is one of three hospitals in north Gaza that are barely operational as the health ministry said the Israeli forces have detained and expelled medical staff and prevented emergency medical, food and fuel supplies from reaching them.
In the past few weeks, Israel said it had facilitated the delivery of medical and fuel supplies and the transfer of patients from north Gaza hospitals in collaboration with international agencies such as the World Health Organization.
Residents in three embattled north Gaza towns — Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun — said Israeli forces had blown up hundreds of houses since renewing operations in an area that Israel said months ago had been cleared of militants.
Palestinians say Israel appears determined to depopulate the area permanently to create a buffer zone along the northern edge of Gaza, an accusation Israel denies.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 44,000 people, uprooted nearly all the enclave’s 2.3 million population at least once, according to Gaza officials, while reducing wide swathes of the narrow coastal territory to rubble.
The war erupted in response to a cross-border attack by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7, 2023 in which gunmen killed around 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.


Iran to hold nuclear talks with three European powers in Geneva on Friday, Kyodo reports

Updated 24 November 2024
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Iran to hold nuclear talks with three European powers in Geneva on Friday, Kyodo reports

  • A senior Iranian official confirmed that the meeting would go ahead next Friday

DUBAI: Iran plans to hold talks about its disputed nuclear program with three European powers on Nov. 29 in Geneva, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported on Sunday, days after the UN atomic watchdog passed a resolution against Tehran.
Iran reacted to the resolution, which was proposed by Britain, France, Germany and the United States, with what government officials called various measures such as activating numerous new and advanced centrifuges, machines that enrich uranium.
Kyodo said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government was seeking a solution to the nuclear impasse ahead of the inauguration in January of US President-elect Donald Trump.
A senior Iranian official confirmed that the meeting would go ahead next Friday, adding that “Tehran has always believed that the nuclear issue should be resolved through diplomacy. Iran has never left the talks.”
In 2018, the then-Trump administration exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to violate the pact’s nuclear limits, with moves such as rebuilding stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output.
Indirect talks between President Joe Biden’s administration and Tehran to try to revive the pact have failed, but Trump said in his election campaign in September that “We have to make a deal, because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal.”