Turkey-Russia cease-fire negotiations for Libya: Any hope for durability?

Commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Khalifa Haftar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meet for talks in Moscow, Russia, January 13, 2020. (Reuters)
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Updated 10 July 2020
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Turkey-Russia cease-fire negotiations for Libya: Any hope for durability?

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Libyan National Army (LNA), backed by Russia and led by eastern Libyan Commander Khalifa Haftar, is willing to sign a cease-fire document
  • Saturday’s attack targeting the strategic Al-Watiya air base in Libya damaged Turkish air defense systems where Turkey was reportedly planning to establish a permanent presence

ANKARA: As Kremlin announced the ongoing consultations between Turkey and Russia for an immediate cease-fire deal for the longstanding Libyan conflict, the feasibility of such an agreement is being questioned more and more as the two countries support opposing sides.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Libyan National Army (LNA), backed by Russia and led by eastern Libyan Commander Khalifa Haftar, is willing to sign a cease-fire document. Russia expects Ankara to convince the Government of National Accord (GNA) to proceed in the same way.

The ministerial-level talks have been ongoing for a while, with some postponements last month over the technical disagreements.

Samuel Ramani, a Middle East analyst at the University of Oxford, is skeptical about a cease-fire working on the ground.

“The Libyan war is much more complicated than a mere Russia-Turkey proxy war, even though it is often oversimplified to this binary in Western media outlets. The UAE and Egypt will be much more hesitant than Russia about signing a peace deal with Turkey and might not view such as a ceasefire as credible,” he told Arab News.

According to Ramani, Haftar’s military actions in Libya could continue.

“Alternatively, Turkey has powerful interests against a cease-fire at this time and has also escalated tensions with France. Moreover, when Russia says the LNA is on board, there is a question as to whether he means Libyan House of Representatives Chief Aguila Saleh, who might be, or Haftar,” Ramani said.

Experts insist that the spheres of influence in Libya should be clearly outlined to prevent another failed cease-fire.

Regarding the red lines for a cease-fire, Ramani thinks that freezing the conflict areas in and around LNA-held Sirte and Jufra is an immediate priority.

Sirte bears strategic importance as it lies close to key energy export terminals on the Mediterranean shores, while Jufra hosts a strategic military base where Russian aircraft and Wagner mercenaries are reportedly located.

“An escalation from either side in these areas would be a red line. Also, there is a need for assurances from both sides that they won’t restart a broader war if they perceive their rivals as being weak,” Ramani said.

Aydin Sezer, an expert on Turkey-Russia relations, thinks that Russia is concerned about the increasing military support that Turkey gives to the GNA, which further escalates tension in the civil war.

“The only priority right now for Russia is to achieve a lasting peace through a sustainable ceasefire agreement. The same goes for France. Both these countries are also set to bring this issue to the UN Security Council. These latest ceasefire negotiations mean Russia wants to keep the diplomacy doors open for both sides,” he told Arab News.

Saturday’s attack targeting the strategic Al-Watiya air base in Libya damaged Turkish air defense systems where Turkey was reportedly planning to establish a permanent presence. The attack also came a couple of hours after Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar visited Libya.

“After that attack, Ankara felt obligated to be much more cautious regarding the fragile dynamics in Libya. The situation on the ground is complicated and time is not on the Turkish side. Therefore, the cease-fire is necessary for Ankara more than ever,” Sezer said.

For Wolfram Lacher, however, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Russia and Turkey may well try to broker a ceasefire and thereby become the two key players in Libya, but it is doubtful whether such a cease-fire could succeed.

“Haftar has more room to maneuver with regard to Russia than Turkey has with regard to the GNA because he can still rely on Egyptian and UAE support. So, he may reject the terms of a Russian-Turkish ceasefire,” Lacher told Arab News.

According to Lacher, other powers — including the US, France, Egypt and the UAE — want to prevent a Russian-Turkish arrangement in Libya and instead want ceasefire talks to take place under the UN auspices.

“This competition over the forum for ceasefire talks will also make any cease-fire initiative more difficult,” he said.

On the other hand, Bill Park, senior lecturer in the Department of Defense Studies at King’s College London, thinks Moscow is uncomfortable with the implications of Turkey’s escalation in Libya.

“Russia wants to demonstrate that there might be limits to what it will tolerate,” he told Arab News. “At this stage, Ankara should be willing to take risks while Russia should meet the challenges for a negotiated agreement and manage the hostility between France and Turkey.”


Israeli forces withdraw from Naqoura, advance into other Lebanese villages

Updated 02 January 2025
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Israeli forces withdraw from Naqoura, advance into other Lebanese villages

  • French foreign minister meets Berri, heads to Damascus to meet Al-Sharaa

BEIRUT: The Lebanese army was preparing to enter the southern coastal town of Naqoura on Thursday to retake its positions after observing the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area.

The army is paving the way for its redeployment by conducting an initial engineering survey of the town to remove unexploded ordnance.

This is the third withdrawal of Israeli forces from towns into which they advanced during the ground war in Lebanon launched by Israel on Oct. 1. The ceasefire agreement, effective since Nov. 27, stipulated that Israel would complete its withdrawal from the border areas it had entered within 60 days.

On Thursday, Israeli forces were seen withdrawing from neighborhoods in Naqoura toward Ras Naqoura and Alma Al-Shaab, conducting sweeps with machine guns during the retreat.

The area of Israeli incursion remains devoid of residents — under Israeli orders — until further notice.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese army prohibits citizens from returning to the towns until the army assumes control, seizes any weapons found, and dismantles any Hezbollah assets, in line with UN Resolution 1701.

The Lebanese army had repositioned in the town of Khiam about 10 days ago and in the town of Chamaa shortly before the end of the year.

Concurrently, Israeli Merkava tanks continued to shell homes in an area between the towns of Yater and Beit Lif in the Bint Jbeil district.

An Israeli patrol, reinforced with tanks and a bulldozer, advanced into the area on Thursday.

Israeli forces are still demolishing homes, bulldozing roads, and destroying facilities, rendering the border area from Naqoura in the west to Shebaa in the east an uninhabitable, scorched zone for years to come.

A security source said that “Israeli forces advanced for the first time since the start of the ground war to the outskirts of Beit Lif, where soldiers searched some homes and wooded areas.”

An Israeli unit also advanced from the town of Ramyah, while another unit, equipped with two bulldozers, moved toward the town of Majdal Zoun, simultaneously targeting homes and neighborhoods with artillery shelling.

Israeli reconnaissance planes continued to intrude into Lebanese airspace, flying at low altitude to the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Security reports indicated that Israeli forces set fire to several homes in the town of Aitaroun in the Bint Jbeil district on Wednesday night.

The secretary-general of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said that he had given “the Lebanese state an opportunity to prove itself and take responsibility for ensuring Israel’s exit from Lebanon.”

In a speech on the first day of the new year, he affirmed that “the resistance has regained its strength,” referring to Hezbollah’s military wing.

In the same context, Hezbollah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan criticized “the daily Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement in many forms. The areas that the Israeli army could not reach during the aggression are now being accessed in many villages following the ceasefire, under the watch of the quintet committee and international public opinion,” he said.

There are 23 days left for the Israeli army to completely withdraw from the south under the agreement. However, a political observer expressed concern that “Hezbollah will be free to respond to Israeli violations after the end of the deadline, with a calculated response that does not breach Resolution 1701.”

On the political and diplomatic front, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday met with US Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, head of the supervisory committee overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire, in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who is in Beirut, met with Berri and is scheduled to travel to Damascus on Friday to see Ahmad Al-Sharaa, Syria’s de facto leader, before returning to Beirut and leaving from the city’s Rafic Hariri International Airport to France.

Barrot and French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu spent New Year’s Eve with UNIFIL French contingent peacekeepers in south Lebanon. Lecornu returned to France the next day.


Ousted Syrian president Bashar Assad poisoned in Moscow — report

Updated 02 January 2025
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Ousted Syrian president Bashar Assad poisoned in Moscow — report

  • Assad reportedly fell ill on Sunday in Moscow, where he has resided since fleeing Syria in early December
  • Account believed to be run by former Russian spy says Assad’s condition said to be stabilized by Monday

LONDON: An assassination attempt by poisoning has been made on former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, The Sun reported.

The ousted leader reportedly fell ill on Sunday in Moscow, where he has resided since fleeing Syria in early December.

Assad, 59, requested medical help then began to “cough violently and choke,” according to online account General SVR, which is believed to be run by a former top spy in Russia.

“There is every reason to believe an assassination attempt was made,” it added.

Assad was treated in his apartment, and his condition is said to have stabilized by Monday. He was confirmed to have been poisoned by medical testing, the account said, without citing direct sources.

There has been no confirmation of the event from the Russian government.


Bashar Assad poisoned in Moscow: Report

Updated 02 January 2025
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Bashar Assad poisoned in Moscow: Report

  • Ousted Syrian dictator requested medical help then began to ‘cough violently and choke’
  • ‘There is every reason to believe an assassination attempt was made’

LONDON: An assassination attempt by poisoning has been made on former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, The Sun reported.

The ousted leader reportedly fell ill on Sunday in Moscow, where he has resided since fleeing Syria in early December.

Assad, 59, requested medical help then began to “cough violently and choke,” according to online account General SVR, which is believed to be run by a former top spy in Russia.

“There is every reason to believe an assassination attempt was made,” it added.

Assad was treated in his apartment, and his condition is said to have stabilized by Monday. He was confirmed to have been poisoned by medical testing, the account said, without citing direct sources.

There has been no confirmation of the event from the Russian government.


Gaza’s Islamic Jihad says Israeli hostage tried to take own life

Updated 02 January 2025
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Gaza’s Islamic Jihad says Israeli hostage tried to take own life

  • One of the group’s medical teams intervened and prevented him from dying

DUBAI: An Israeli hostage held by Gaza’s Islamic Jihad militant group has tried to take his own life, the spokesperson for the movement’s armed wing said in a video posted on Telegram on Thursday.
One of the group’s medical teams intervened and prevented him from dying, the Al Quds Brigades spokesperson added, without going into any more detail on the hostage’s identity or current condition.
Israeli authorities did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Militants led by Gaza’s ruling Hamas movement killed 1,200 people and took 251 others hostage in an attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, according to Israeli tallies. Hamas ally Islamic Jihad also took part in the assault.
The military campaign that Israel launched in response has killed more than 45,500 Palestinians, according to health officials in the coastal enclave.
Islamic Jihad spokesman Abu Hamza said the hostage had tried to take his own life three days ago due to his psychological state, without going into more details.
Abu Hamza accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of setting new conditions that had led to “the failure and delay” of negotiations for the hostage’s release.
The man had been scheduled to be released with other hostages under the conditions of the first stage of an exchange deal with Israel, Abu Hamza said. He did not specify when the man had been scheduled to be released or under which deal.
Arab mediators’ efforts, backed by the United States, have so far failed to conclude a ceasefire in Gaza, under a possible deal that would also see the release of Israeli hostages in return for the freedom of Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
Islamic Jihad’s armed wing had issued a decision to tighten the security and safety measures for the hostages, Abu Hamza added.
In July, Islamic Jihad’s armed wing said some Israeli hostages had tried to kill themselves after it started treating them in what it said was the same way that Israel treated Palestinian prisoners.
“We will keep treating Israeli hostages the same way Israel treats our prisoners,” Abu Hamza said at that time. Israel has dismissed accusations that it mistreats Palestinian prisoners.


Israeli airstrikes kill at least 37 across Gaza, medics say

Updated 18 min 36 sec ago
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Israeli airstrikes kill at least 37 across Gaza, medics say

CAIRO: Israeli airstrikes killed at least 37 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, including 11 people in a tent encampment sheltering displaced families, medics said.
They said the 11 included women and children in the Al-Mawasi district, which was designated as a humanitarian zone for civilians earlier in the war between Israel and Gaza’s ruling Hamas militant group, now in its 15th month. The director general of Gaza’s police department, Mahmoud Salah, and his aide, Hussam Shahwan, were killed in the strike, according to the Hamas-run Gaza interior ministry.
“By committing the crime of assassinating the director general of police in the Gaza Strip, the occupation is insisting on spreading chaos in the (enclave) and deepening the human suffering of citizens,” it added in a statement.

The Israeli military said it had conducted an intelligence-based strike in Al-Mawasi, just west of the city of Khan Younis, and eliminated Shahwan, calling him the head of Hamas security forces in southern Gaza. It made no mention of Salah’s death.
Other Israeli airstrikes killed at least 26 Palestinians, including six in the interior ministry headquarters in Khan Younis and others in north Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp, the Shati (Beach) camp and central Gaza’s Maghazi camp.
Israel’s military said it had targeted Hamas militants who intelligence indicated were operating in a command and control center “embedded inside the Khan Younis municipality building in the Humanitarian Area.”
Asked about the reported 37 deaths, a spokesperson for the Israeli military said it followed international law in waging the war in Gaza and that it took “feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm.”
The military has accused Gaza militants of using built-up residential areas for cover. Hamas denies this.
Hamas’ smaller ally Islamic Jihad said it fired rockets into the southern Israeli kibbutz of Holit near Gaza on Thursday. The Israeli military said it intercepted one projectile in the area that had crossed from southern Gaza. Israel has killed more than 45,500 Palestinians in the war, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been displaced and much of the tiny, heavily built-up coastal territory is in ruins. The war was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 cross-border attack on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and another 251 taken hostage to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.