Nile dam dispute poses a thorny challenge for Ethiopia and Egypt

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The Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, near Guba in Ethiopia, above. William Davison, below, a senior analyst on Ethiopian affairs with International Crisis Group. (AFP)
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Updated 20 July 2020
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Nile dam dispute poses a thorny challenge for Ethiopia and Egypt

  • Mini-African summit fixed for Tuesday in the latest effort to break protracted deadlock
  • Experts say disagreements run deeper than technical matters and the sharing of water

DUBAI: When Egyptian, Ethiopian and Sudanese officials meet to resolve their differences on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Addis Ababa is building on the Blue Nile, they instantly run into many thorny issues.

These disputes run deeper than technical matters and the sharing of water, experts and analysts say. Because they are also legal, historical and trust-related, a tripartite agreement has proved elusive. An eventual deal could take longer because major differences persist, mainly between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Officials from the three countries concluded two weeks of talks on July 13, supervised by the African Union (AU) and observed by US and European officials, but came no closer to an agreement. Officials were quoted as saying that the three countries would submit their final reports to the AU and that a mini-African summit would be held on Tuesday.




An aerial view shows the River Nile before sunset in the Helwan suburb south of the Egyptian capital Cairo on June 20, 2020. (Photo by Khaled Desouki / AFP)

The talks were the latest in a decade-long effort by the three African countries to resolve differences over the GERD. Ethiopia hopes the 6,000-megawatt dam will turn it into Africa’s top hydropower supplier. Egypt and Sudan fear the dam — being constructed less than 20 km from Ethiopia’s eastern border with Sudan — will substantially reduce their water share and affect development prospects.

While Addis Ababa insists the dam will benefit all Nile river basin states, the three countries are stymied by technical issues on how and when to fill the reservoir and how much water it should release, along with procedures for drought mitigation.

Experts and analysts from Africa and outside say the differences are fundamental and require sincerity. “Vital national interests are at stake, particularly on the Egyptian and Ethiopian sides,” said William Davison, a senior analyst on Ethiopian affairs with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Ethiopia considers the project important for development and thus named it the “renaissance dam,” he said, adding: “It is also seen as vital to overcoming injustices from past treaties that excluded the country and denied it water allocations.”

Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for agriculture, industry and drinking water, worries that such a large dam will reduce water supplies “in a problematic way” in the future, Davison told Arab News from Addis Ababa.

Satellite images released recently showed water pouring into the reservoir, prompting Seleshi Bekele, the Ethiopian water minister, to assuage Egyptian anxieties by insisting that the process was the product of natural seasonal flooding and not direct action by the government.

Egyptian analysts say Ethiopia is ignoring its neighbors’ interests. “The talks have failed because of continuous Ethiopian obstinacy,” said Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies. “Ethiopia has been buying time to impose a new reality on the ground . . . they don’t intend to reach an agreement.”

INNUMBERS

$4.8 billion Estimated cost of GERD.

15% Cost as share of Ethiopia’s 2012 GDP.

20,000 People in need of resettlement.

Source: International Rivers Organization

Other experts say that a positive attitude by the parties would help. “There is a tendency on each side to see the other in a more threatening manner, which I think is the key issue here,” said Mulugetta Ketema, managing director of the US-based Cogent International Solutions, a research and analysis center.

“Instead of starting negotiations based on who can dominate over which country or region, I think you should start by saying ‘How can we work together to utilize his river.’”

Ketema, who is Ethiopian-American, added: “I am sure everybody is doing their best, but there is a historical issue also at play here. For centuries Egypt and Sudan didn’t have anybody saying they could do this or that . . . they have been using the river for their own advantage.

“However, now the basin countries . . . are also growing and saying ‘Hey, we have to use or share something with our brothers and sisters up north and harvest the river.’ Apparently, this is where the problem starts.”

The Nile basin includes Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. Most were not part of the agreements signed during the British colonial years that gave Egypt and Sudan a big share of the Nile waters, Ketema said. Except for Ethiopia, those countries were under British control.

Apart from the legal differences over the term of references consultants use in their reports, drought mitigation remains a major obstacle. Egypt and Sudan seek Ethiopia’s commitment to a safe minimum release of water in dry seasons. Addis Ababa has been unwilling to do so, according to Davison.

“More recently, in the negotiations, there has been a series of legal disputes or disagreements. Sudan and Egypt would like a process of binding third-party arbitration as a last resort to resolve any future dispute (but) the Ethiopians . . . are not willing to sign up to that,” he told Arab News.

Ethiopia insists that Africa needs to solve African affairs. “Historically, Africans have been solving their own problems and did a better job than outside interference,” Ketema said. “Europeans and the UN tried to mediate in some issues, but it really never worked.” Should the AU fail to reach a solution on the GERD, other developing nations could extend their hands, he said.

To many Egyptian analysts, Ethiopia’s insistence on “African solutions” aims to “keep the negotiations going in a vicious circle until the dam is completely full and then there will be no meaning for negotiations,” Al-Ahram Center’s Raslan told Arab News.




A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia. (Photo by EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP)

“A practical solution is available already,” he said, referring to a US-drafted agreement that emerged from talks in Washington DC earlier this year. Egypt initialled the document, while Ethiopia declined.

The ministers agreed on a schedule for a staggered filling of the dam and mitigation mechanism, according to the document, but still needed to finalize details on safety and ways of handling future disputes. Praising Egypt’s readiness to sign the agreement, the US noted that Ethiopia sought internal consultations.

Davison said that the parties need to focus on specific disagreements on hydrological and legal issues “without being sidetracked by the current controversy over the act of filling (water) and . . . by the historical and geopolitical disagreements.”

“If the lawyers and engineers are allowed the space to reach a compromise on these technical issues, that will not solve everything,” he said.

“But that will allow some sort of agreement (so that) the parties can move on and build trust. Eventually, they will be able to address some of the large issues over water sharing and ultimately this historical rivalry over the river.”

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Twitter: @jumanaaltamimi

 


Germany scraps funding for sea rescues of migrants

Updated 3 sec ago
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Germany scraps funding for sea rescues of migrants

“I don’t think it’s the foreign office’s job to finance this kind of sea rescue,” Wadephul said
“We need to be active where the need is greatest“

BERLIN: Germany is cutting financial support for charities that rescue migrants at risk of drowning in the Mediterranean, saying it will redirect resources to addressing conditions in source countries that spur people to leave.

For decades, migrants driven by war and poverty have made perilous crossings to reach Europe’s southern borders, with thousands estimated to die every year in their bid to reach a continent grown increasingly hostile to migration.

“Germany is committed to being humane and will help where people suffer but I don’t think it’s the foreign office’s job to finance this kind of sea rescue,” Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told a news conference.

“We need to be active where the need is greatest,” he added, mentioning the humanitarian emergency in war-shattered Sudan.

Under the previous left-leaning government, Germany began paying around 2 million euros ($2.34 million) annually to non-governmental organizations carrying out rescues of migrant-laden boats in trouble at sea.

For them, it has been a key source of funds: Germany’s Sea-Eye, which said rescue charities have saved 175,000 lives since 2015, received around 10 percent of its total income of around 3.2 million euros from the German government.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won February’s national election after a campaign promising to curb irregular migration, which some voters in Europe’s largest economy see as being out of control.

Even though the overall numbers have been falling for several years, many Germans blame migration-related fears for the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the second largest party in parliament.

Many experts say that migration levels are mainly driven by economic and humanitarian emergencies in the source countries, with the official cold shoulder in destination countries having had little impact in deterring migrants.

Despite this, German officials suggest that sea rescues only incentivise people to risk the sometimes deadly crossings.

“The (government) support made possible extra missions and very concretely saved lives,” said Gorden Isler, Sea-Eye’s chairperson. “We might now have to stay in harbor despite emergencies.”

The opposition Greens, who controlled the foreign office when the subsidies were introduced, criticized the move.

“This will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and deepen human suffering,” said joint floor leader Britta Hasselmann.

Mass shooting in gang-plagued Mexican state leaves 12 dead and more injured

Updated 26 June 2025
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Mass shooting in gang-plagued Mexican state leaves 12 dead and more injured

  • The attorney general’s office in Guanajuato said some 20 others were hospitalized
  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the victims included children

MEXICO CITY: At least 12 people were killed, including a teenager, and more wounded in a Tuesday night shooting in the central Mexican city of Irapuato, authorities said on Wednesday.

The attorney general’s office in Guanajuato, the violence-plagued state where Irapuato is located, said some 20 others were hospitalized with gunshot wounds.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said earlier on Wednesday that the victims included children, although the attorney general’s office later confirmed only one casualty was a minor, aged 17.

“It is very unfortunate what happened. An investigation is under way,” Sheinbaum said.

Local media reported the shooting happened during an evening party celebrating a Catholic holiday, the Nativity of John the Baptist.

A video circulating on social media showed people dancing in the patio of a housing complex while a band played in the background, before gunfire erupted. Reuters was not immediately able to verify the video.

Guanajuato has been for many years one of the most violent regions in the country.

On Tuesday, five other people were killed in other parts of the state, according to the attorney general’s office.


29 pupils taking high school exams killed in Central Africa crush

Updated 26 June 2025
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29 pupils taking high school exams killed in Central Africa crush

  • In the ensuing panic, supervisors and students tried to flee, some jumping from the first floor of the school
  • “I would like to express my solidarity and compassion to the parents of the deceased candidates, to the educational staff, to the students,” Touadera said

BANGUI: Twenty-nine students taking their high school exams in the Central African Republic died in a stampede sparked by an exploding power transformer, the health ministry told AFP Thursday.

Just over 5,300 students were sitting the second day of the baccalaureate exams at the time of the explosion early Wednesday afternoon in Bangui, the capital of the deeply poor nation.

In the ensuing panic, supervisors and students tried to flee, some jumping from the first floor of the school.

The injured were transported by ambulance, on the back of pickup trucks or by motorbike taxi, AFP journalists saw.

“I would like to express my solidarity and compassion to the parents of the deceased candidates, to the educational staff, to the students,” President Faustin Archange Touadera said in a video published on his party’s Facebook page.

Touadera, who is attending a summit of the Gavi vaccine alliance in Brussels, also announced three days of national mourning.

According to a document circulating on social media and authenticated by the health ministry, 29 deaths were registered by hospitals in the city.

“The hospital was overwhelmed by people to the point of obstructing caregivers and ambulances, a health ministry source stated.

UN peacekeepers, police and other security were seen around the Barthelemy Boganda high school and hospitals.

Education Minister Aurelien-Simplice Kongbelet-Zingas said in a statement Wednesday that “measures will be taken quickly to shed light on the circumstances of this incident.”

The minister added that a further statement would follow regarding selection of a date for the students to resume their exams program.

The Republican Bloc for the Defense of the Constitution (BRDC), a coalition of opposition parties, condemned what it termed “the irresponsibility of the authorities in place, who have failed in their duty to ensure the safety of students and school infrastructure.”

The CAR is among the poorest countries in the world and, since independence from France in 1960, has endured a succession of coups, authoritarian rulers and civil wars.

The latest civil war started more than a decade ago. The government has secured the main cities and violence has subsided in recent years.

But fighting occasionally erupts in remote regions between rebels and the national army, which is backed by Wagner mercenaries and Rwandan troops.

Municipal, legislative, and presidential elections are scheduled for August and December of this year but UN experts are calling for urgent institutional reform of the electoral authority before the polls and for “transparent internal governance,” as tensions between the government and the opposition intensify.


Kremlin says no date yet for next round of Ukraine peace talks

Updated 26 June 2025
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Kremlin says no date yet for next round of Ukraine peace talks

  • Peskov said Russia was in favor of continued US efforts to mediate
  • They have made no progress toward a ceasefire

MOSCOW: The Kremlin said on Thursday there was no progress yet toward setting a date for the next round of peace talks with Ukraine, Interfax news agency reported.

Another agency, TASS, quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying Russia was in favor of continued US efforts to mediate.

Resuming negotiations after a gap of more than three years, Russia and Ukraine held face-to-face talks in Istanbul on May 16 and June 2 that led to a series of prisoner exchanges and the return of the bodies of dead soldiers.

But they have made no progress toward a ceasefire which Ukraine, with Western backing, has been pressing for.


16 dead, thousands of businesses destroyed after Kenya protests

Updated 26 June 2025
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16 dead, thousands of businesses destroyed after Kenya protests

  • The marches had been called to mark one year since anti-tax demonstrations
  • “What unfolded yesterday was not a protest. It was terrorism disguised as dissent,” Kipchumba Murkomen, interior cabinet secretary, said

NAIROBI: At least 16 people died in protests across Kenya on Wednesday, Amnesty International said Thursday, as businesses and residents were left to clean up the devastation in the capital and beyond.

The marches had been called to mark one year since anti-tax demonstrations that peaked when a huge crowd stormed parliament and dozens were killed by security forces.

The anniversary marches began peacefully Wednesday but descended into chaos as young men held running battles with police, lit fires, and ripped up pavements to use as projectiles.

“What unfolded yesterday was not a protest. It was terrorism disguised as dissent,” Kipchumba Murkomen, interior cabinet secretary, said in a televised speech.

“We condemn the criminal anarchists who in the name of peaceful demonstrations unleashed a wave of violence, looting, sexual assault and destruction upon our people,” he added.

In Nairobi’s business district, the epicenter of the unrest, AFP journalists found entire shopping centers and thousands of businesses destroyed, many still smoldering.

At least two banks had been broken into, while businesses ranging from supermarkets to small electronics and clothing stores were reduced to ashes or ransacked by looters.

“When we came we found the whole premise burnt down,” said Raphael Omondi, 36, owner of a print shop, adding that he had lost machines worth $150,000.

“There were guys stealing, and after stealing they set the whole premises on fire... If this is what protest is, it is not worth it.”

“They looted everything... I do not know where to start,” said Maureen Chepkemoi, 32, owner of a perfume store.

“To protest is not bad but why are you coming to protest inside my shop? It is wicked,” she added.

Several business owners told AFP that looting had started in the afternoon after the government ordered TV and radio stations to stop broadcasting live images of the protests.

Amnesty International’s Kenya director Irungu Houghton said the death toll had risen to 16.

Rights group Vocal Africa, which was documenting the deaths and helping affected families at a Nairobi morgue, said at least four bodies had been brought there so far.

“All of them had signs of gunshots, so we suspect they all died of gunshot wounds,” its head Hussein Khalid told AFP.

“We condemn this excessive use of force,” he said. “We believe that the police could have handled themselves with restraint.”

“You come out to protest police killings, and they kill even more.”

A coalition of rights groups had earlier said at least 400 people were wounded, with 83 in serious condition in hospital. It recorded protests in 23 counties around Kenya.

Emergency responders reported multiple gunshot wounds, and there were unconfirmed local media reports that police had opened fire on protesters, particularly in towns outside the capital.

There is deep resentment against President William Ruto, who came to power in 2022 promising rapid economic progress.

Many are disillusioned by continued economic stagnation, corruption and high taxes, as well as police brutality after a teacher was killed in custody earlier this month.