Nile dam dispute poses a thorny challenge for Ethiopia and Egypt

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The Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, near Guba in Ethiopia, above. William Davison, below, a senior analyst on Ethiopian affairs with International Crisis Group. (AFP)
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Updated 20 July 2020
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Nile dam dispute poses a thorny challenge for Ethiopia and Egypt

  • Mini-African summit fixed for Tuesday in the latest effort to break protracted deadlock
  • Experts say disagreements run deeper than technical matters and the sharing of water

DUBAI: When Egyptian, Ethiopian and Sudanese officials meet to resolve their differences on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Addis Ababa is building on the Blue Nile, they instantly run into many thorny issues.

These disputes run deeper than technical matters and the sharing of water, experts and analysts say. Because they are also legal, historical and trust-related, a tripartite agreement has proved elusive. An eventual deal could take longer because major differences persist, mainly between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Officials from the three countries concluded two weeks of talks on July 13, supervised by the African Union (AU) and observed by US and European officials, but came no closer to an agreement. Officials were quoted as saying that the three countries would submit their final reports to the AU and that a mini-African summit would be held on Tuesday.




An aerial view shows the River Nile before sunset in the Helwan suburb south of the Egyptian capital Cairo on June 20, 2020. (Photo by Khaled Desouki / AFP)

The talks were the latest in a decade-long effort by the three African countries to resolve differences over the GERD. Ethiopia hopes the 6,000-megawatt dam will turn it into Africa’s top hydropower supplier. Egypt and Sudan fear the dam — being constructed less than 20 km from Ethiopia’s eastern border with Sudan — will substantially reduce their water share and affect development prospects.

While Addis Ababa insists the dam will benefit all Nile river basin states, the three countries are stymied by technical issues on how and when to fill the reservoir and how much water it should release, along with procedures for drought mitigation.

Experts and analysts from Africa and outside say the differences are fundamental and require sincerity. “Vital national interests are at stake, particularly on the Egyptian and Ethiopian sides,” said William Davison, a senior analyst on Ethiopian affairs with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Ethiopia considers the project important for development and thus named it the “renaissance dam,” he said, adding: “It is also seen as vital to overcoming injustices from past treaties that excluded the country and denied it water allocations.”

Egypt, which relies heavily on the Nile for agriculture, industry and drinking water, worries that such a large dam will reduce water supplies “in a problematic way” in the future, Davison told Arab News from Addis Ababa.

Satellite images released recently showed water pouring into the reservoir, prompting Seleshi Bekele, the Ethiopian water minister, to assuage Egyptian anxieties by insisting that the process was the product of natural seasonal flooding and not direct action by the government.

Egyptian analysts say Ethiopia is ignoring its neighbors’ interests. “The talks have failed because of continuous Ethiopian obstinacy,” said Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies. “Ethiopia has been buying time to impose a new reality on the ground . . . they don’t intend to reach an agreement.”

INNUMBERS

$4.8 billion Estimated cost of GERD.

15% Cost as share of Ethiopia’s 2012 GDP.

20,000 People in need of resettlement.

Source: International Rivers Organization

Other experts say that a positive attitude by the parties would help. “There is a tendency on each side to see the other in a more threatening manner, which I think is the key issue here,” said Mulugetta Ketema, managing director of the US-based Cogent International Solutions, a research and analysis center.

“Instead of starting negotiations based on who can dominate over which country or region, I think you should start by saying ‘How can we work together to utilize his river.’”

Ketema, who is Ethiopian-American, added: “I am sure everybody is doing their best, but there is a historical issue also at play here. For centuries Egypt and Sudan didn’t have anybody saying they could do this or that . . . they have been using the river for their own advantage.

“However, now the basin countries . . . are also growing and saying ‘Hey, we have to use or share something with our brothers and sisters up north and harvest the river.’ Apparently, this is where the problem starts.”

The Nile basin includes Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. Most were not part of the agreements signed during the British colonial years that gave Egypt and Sudan a big share of the Nile waters, Ketema said. Except for Ethiopia, those countries were under British control.

Apart from the legal differences over the term of references consultants use in their reports, drought mitigation remains a major obstacle. Egypt and Sudan seek Ethiopia’s commitment to a safe minimum release of water in dry seasons. Addis Ababa has been unwilling to do so, according to Davison.

“More recently, in the negotiations, there has been a series of legal disputes or disagreements. Sudan and Egypt would like a process of binding third-party arbitration as a last resort to resolve any future dispute (but) the Ethiopians . . . are not willing to sign up to that,” he told Arab News.

Ethiopia insists that Africa needs to solve African affairs. “Historically, Africans have been solving their own problems and did a better job than outside interference,” Ketema said. “Europeans and the UN tried to mediate in some issues, but it really never worked.” Should the AU fail to reach a solution on the GERD, other developing nations could extend their hands, he said.

To many Egyptian analysts, Ethiopia’s insistence on “African solutions” aims to “keep the negotiations going in a vicious circle until the dam is completely full and then there will be no meaning for negotiations,” Al-Ahram Center’s Raslan told Arab News.




A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia. (Photo by EDUARDO SOTERAS / AFP)

“A practical solution is available already,” he said, referring to a US-drafted agreement that emerged from talks in Washington DC earlier this year. Egypt initialled the document, while Ethiopia declined.

The ministers agreed on a schedule for a staggered filling of the dam and mitigation mechanism, according to the document, but still needed to finalize details on safety and ways of handling future disputes. Praising Egypt’s readiness to sign the agreement, the US noted that Ethiopia sought internal consultations.

Davison said that the parties need to focus on specific disagreements on hydrological and legal issues “without being sidetracked by the current controversy over the act of filling (water) and . . . by the historical and geopolitical disagreements.”

“If the lawyers and engineers are allowed the space to reach a compromise on these technical issues, that will not solve everything,” he said.

“But that will allow some sort of agreement (so that) the parties can move on and build trust. Eventually, they will be able to address some of the large issues over water sharing and ultimately this historical rivalry over the river.”

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Twitter: @jumanaaltamimi

 


Dubai crown prince arrives in India on first state visit

Updated 1 min 41 sec ago
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Dubai crown prince arrives in India on first state visit

  • With more than $3 billion in foreign direct investment, India was Dubai’s top investor in 2024
  • Dubai crown prince will also take part in a business roundtable meeting in Mumbai 

NEW DELHI: The crown prince of Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, arrived in New Delhi on Tuesday for his first state visit to India, where he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and members of his Cabinet.

Sheikh Hamdan is on a two-day visit to New Delhi and Mumbai, leading a delegation of ministers, senior government officials and business leaders. 

India’s economic ties with Dubai have been growing rapidly since the 2022 UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which has eliminated trade barriers, lowered tariffs and eased business operations, making it easier for companies in both countries to access each other’s markets.

“Dubai has played a key role in advancing the India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This special visit reaffirms our deep-rooted friendship and paves the way for even stronger collaboration in the future,” Modi said on X after the meeting. 

Trade volume between Dubai and India was worth about $45.4 billion in 2023, up from $36.7 billion in 2019, data from the emirate’s media office showed. 

India was Dubai’s top investor in 2024, with more than $3 billion in foreign direct investment in various sectors, such as business services, software and IT services, consumer products, food and beverages, and real estate.  

As of last year, more than 70,000 Indian companies have joined the Dubai Chamber of Commerce. 

Dubai, the most populous of the UAE’s seven emirates, is also home to the majority of India’s 4.3 million diaspora in the country. 

“It was a pleasure meeting the Prime Minister Narendra Modi today in New Delhi,” Sheikh Hamdan wrote on X. 

“Our conversations reaffirmed the strength of UAE-India ties, which are built on trust, shaped by history, and driven by a shared vision to create a future full of opportunity, innovation, and lasting prosperity.”

Sheikh Hamdan, who is also the UAE’s minister of defense, held meetings with his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.  

On the sidelines of the visit, representatives of the Dubai Chamber of Commerce preside over a business forum in Mumbai to explore “new trade and investment prospects” with about 200 industry leaders, the Dubai Media Office said in a statement. 

After Delhi, Sheikh Hamdan will visit Mumbai, where he will take part in a roundtable meeting with top business leaders from India and Dubai. 


South Korean military fire warning shots after North Korean soldiers cross the border

Updated 08 April 2025
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South Korean military fire warning shots after North Korean soldiers cross the border

  • South Korea’s military said it is closely monitoring North Korean activities
  • Bloodshed and violent confrontations have occasionally occurred at the Koreas’ heavily fortified border

SEOUL: South Korea’s military fired warning shots after North Korean soldiers crossed the rivals’ tense border on Tuesday, South Korean officials said.
South Korea’s military said in a statement that about 10 North Korean soldiers returned to the North after South Korea made warning broadcasts and fired warning shots. It said the North Korean soldiers violated the military demarcation line at the eastern section of the border at 5 p.m.
South Korea’s military said it is closely monitoring North Korean activities.
Bloodshed and violent confrontations have occasionally occurred at the Koreas’ heavily fortified border, called the Demilitarized Zone. But when North Korean troops briefly violated the border in June last year and prompted South Korea to fire warning shots, it didn’t escalate into a major source of tensions. South Korean officials assessed that the soldiers didn’t deliberately commit the border intrusion and the site was a wooded area and military demarcation line signs there weren’t clearly visible. South Korea said the North Koreans were carrying construction tools.
The motive for Tuesday’s border crossing by North Korean soldiers wasn’t immediately clear.
The 248-kilometer (155-mile) -long, 4-kilometer (2.5-mile) -wide DMZ is the world’s most heavily armed border. An estimated 2 million mines are peppered inside and near the border, which is also guarded by barbed wire fences, tank traps and combat troops on both sides. It’s a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty.
Animosities between the Koreas are running high now as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to flaunt his military nuclear capabilities and align with Russia over President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine. Kim is also ignoring calls by Seoul and Washington to resume denuclearization negotiations.
Since his Jan. 20 inauguration, US President Donald Trump has said he would reach out to Kim again to revive diplomacy. North Korea has not responded to Trump’s remarks and says US hostilities against it have deepened since Trump’s inauguration.
South Korea, meanwhile, is experiencing a leadership vacuum after the ouster of President Yoon Suk Yeol last week over his ill-fated imposition of martial law.


Bangladesh police arrest former prosecutor for attempted murder

Updated 08 April 2025
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Bangladesh police arrest former prosecutor for attempted murder

  • The case is the latest in a string of detentions of people who had held senior positions during Hasina’s rule
  • Tureen Afroz was arrested on Monday night on charges of attempted murder

DHAKA: Bangladeshi police said Tuesday they arrested a lawyer who served as a senior prosecutor at a court that sentenced Islamist leaders to death under the rule of ousted hard-line prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
The case is the latest in a string of detentions of people who had held senior positions during Hasina’s rule, who is herself wanted on charges of crimes against humanity for the killing of hundreds of protesters during the unrest that toppled her government last August.
Tureen Afroz was arrested on Monday night on charges of attempted murder, in a case linked to the student-led uprising, said Muhidul Islam, police deputy commissioner in the capital Dhaka.
The case against Afroz was filed by Mohammed Jabbar, 21, who was shot last August as security forces sought to quash protests.
“She has several co-accused in this particular case, but none are as prominent as she is,” Muhidul told AFP.
Afroz was a prosecutor at Bangladesh’s domestic International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), which was set up by Hasina in 2010 to probe atrocities during the country’s 1971 war of independence against Pakistan.
The ICT sentenced numerous prominent political opponents to death over the following years and became widely seen as a means for Hasina to eliminate her rivals.
Afroz played a prominent role in the cases of at least six Islamist leaders, including several from the Jamaat-e-Islami party, who were sentenced to hang. All except Ghulam Azam were executed.
This is the first time a former ICT prosecutor has been arrested on such charges.
Hasina has defied extradition requests from Bangladesh to face charges — at the same ICT court she set up — after she fled to old ally India as crowds stormed her palace.
The court’s current chief prosecutor, Tajul Islam, previously served as a defense counsel representing several of those accused of 1971 war crimes.


South Korea sets snap presidential election for June 3, drawing out contenders

Updated 35 min 13 sec ago
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South Korea sets snap presidential election for June 3, drawing out contenders

  • President Yoon ousted last week after December martial law
  • Multiple candidates emerge amid political turmoil

SEOUL: Leading contenders began to throw their hats in the ring on Tuesday as South Korea officially set June 3 for a snap presidential election triggered by last week’s removal from office of impeached leader Yoon Suk Yeol.
The power vacuum at the top of government has impeded Seoul’s efforts to negotiate with the administration of US President Donald Trump at a time of spiralling US tariffs and slowing growth in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
Yoon was removed on Friday over his short-lived declaration of martial law in December that plunged the key US ally into crisis, triggering a new election that could reshape its foreign and domestic policy.
“The government intends to designate June 3 as the 21st presidential election day,” Acting President Han Duck-soo told a cabinet meeting, citing factors such as the time political parties need to prepare for the event.
Yoon’s labor minister Kim Moon-soo is among a handful of hopefuls who have signalled their intention to run, resigning his post on Tuesday and saying he would launch his campaign.
While not officially a member of Yoon’s People Power Party at the moment, Kim has been polling better than other conservative contenders.
“I tendered my resignation and decided to run because the people want it, people I know want it, and I feel a sense of responsibility to solve national difficulties,” Kim told reporters.
Economic conditions during a “severe national crisis” are hurting people’s livelihoods, he said.
“I thought that all politicians and people should unite to overcome the crisis and work together to help the country develop further,” Kim said.
Ahn Cheol-soo, a PPP lawmaker who was its first to vote for Yoon’s impeachment, also declared his intention to run on Tuesday, saying he was a “cleaner candidate than anyone else.”
He also vowed to secure new economic growth engines including artificial intelligence, to counter Trump’s trade policies.
Ahn fought the last three presidential elections, winning more than 21 percent of the popular vote in 2017, but dropping out and endorsing other candidates in the other two. He is not polling high enough to be included in most recent surveys.
Kim and Ahn will join a wide open field of conservative candidates trying to overcome their party’s second impeachment in as many presidencies.
Conservative Park Geun-hye was impeached, removed from office, and imprisoned in 2017 over a corruption scandal.
Lee Jae-myung, the populist leader of the liberal Democratic Party who lost to Yoon by a razor-thin margin in 2022, is a clear front-runner, but faces legal challenges of his own.
These include multiple trials for charges such as violating the election law and bribery.
Nevertheless, he is expected to step down as DP leader and declare his candidacy as soon as this week.
A Gallup poll published on Friday showed 34 percent of respondents supported Lee as the next leader, while 9 percent backed Kim, 5 percent opted for former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, 4 percent chose Daegu mayor Hong Joon-pyo, and 2 percent plumped for Seoul mayor Oh Se-hoon.
Yoon was removed by the Constitutional Court for violating his official duty by issuing a martial law decree on December 3 and mobilizing troops in a bid to halt parliamentary proceedings.
The law requires a new presidential election to be held within 60 days if the position becomes vacant.
Yoon still faces criminal insurrection charges, with arguments in his trial to begin on April 14.
South Korea has faced months of political turmoil since Yoon stunned the country by declaring martial law, triggering his impeachment by parliament and the impeachment of acting leader Han.
Han’s impeachment was later overturned by the Constitutional Court and he will stay in the role of acting president until the election.


US aid cuts a ‘death sentence’ for millions: UN

Updated 08 April 2025
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US aid cuts a ‘death sentence’ for millions: UN

  • The Trump administration has largely gutted USAID, the main US humanitarian assistance organization

UNITED NATIONS, United States: The United States has ended emergency food aid for 14 countries, endangering the lives of millions of hungry or starving people, a United Nations agency said Monday.
The World Food Program (WFP), which was already grappling with a 40 percent drop in funding for this year, said it had been advised of the new American aid halt to 14 countries.
In comments on X, the agency did not name these countries.
“If implemented, this could amount to a death sentence for millions of people facing extreme hunger and starvation,” the agency said.
The WFP is not the only UN body hit by US funding cuts, as the United States under President Donald Trump turns sharply inward and stops trying to help other countries around the world as part of an isolationist agenda.
The Trump administration told the UN Population Fund, an agency dedicated to promoting sexual and reproductive health, that it was ending two programs, the organization told AFP Monday.
One of programs was for Afghanistan, while the other involved Syria.
Other countries besides the United States have also announced funding cuts in recent months, causing alarm among NGOs and international organizations.
The Trump administration has largely gutted USAID, the main US humanitarian assistance organization. It previously had a yearly budget of $42.8 billion, which was 42 percent of all aid money disbursed around the world.