Lebanon faces the abyss as political elites dither

A few months ago the streets of Lebanon turned chaotic and were filled with young men and women demanding total political change. (AN photo by Elias Moubarak)
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Updated 28 July 2020
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Lebanon faces the abyss as political elites dither

  • The worst economic and financial crisis since the civil war ended in 1990 has crippled the country
  • Crisis is viewed as outcome of a system in which every faction looks out for its own interest

DUBAI: Just a few months ago the streets of Lebanon were filled with young men and women demanding total political change and an end to the country’s confessional system with its sectarian networks.

But neither the spirited rhythm of the protest movement nor the popular chants and slogans could stave off an impending economic disaster.

Savings are now being wiped out, unemployment is surging, living standards are plummeting and fiscal conditions deteriorating as the worst national crisis since the civil war ended in 1990 cripples the country.

Much of the population has access to just one or two hours of power every day from the national grid. For the remaining hours, electricity has to be sourced from a neighborhood generator operator.

In the midst of this meltdown, however, the Lebanese have gone silent. Why?

“Hopelessness and despair,” said Basel Dalloul, a tech executive. “Wherever there is trash you now see people looking for materials and food so they can survive.”

Then there is fear. Since the outbreak of the protests, activists and journalists critical of government policies and corruption have been routinely detained and interrogated by Lebanese internal security forces and military.




Lebanese politicians continue to resist the reforms that might have prevented violent protests on the streets of Beirut. (AN photo by Elias Moubarak)

“People still protest but not with the same momentum due to fear of the coronavirus and the political mafias that are violating human rights,” said a furniture designer who did not want to be identified. “Liberty of expression is in jeopardy. People have lost fingers, eyes and limbs for the mere act of demanding change.”

The consensus view of experts is that after decades of mismanagement, overspending and corruption, the bills have inevitably come due. Yet Lebanese politicians continue to resist the reforms that might have prevented the meltdown and can still create the conditions for international aid to begin flowing.

An immediate reprieve would be a $10 billion loan injection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Since February, Lebanese authorities have had 16 meetings with the organization. According to IMF officials, the talks have stalled and no serious commitments have been made by the Lebanese negotiators.

Many Lebanese are unsurprised at the deadlock, which they see as resulting from a system in which every political faction looks out for its own interests rather than the nation’s best interests.

Does this mean that Lebanon has reached its breaking point, or can it yet be rescued?

“The view of the Hirak (Lebanon’s protest movement) is that we probably need a total breakdown before we can change things,” said Nasser Saidi, Lebanon’s former economy and trade minister and founder of Nasser Saidi & Associates. “I love this quote from Giuseppe Tomasi Di Lampedusa: ‘We have to change everything if nothing is to change.’

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“It’s only when it becomes practically unliveable that you are going to get change. But if you look at the experience of other countries in similar situations, two things are comparatively different. The first is that, politicians always shift the discourse to a pro-communitarian versus pro-sectarian, pro-Syrian versus anti-Syrian, pro-Iranian versus anti-Iranian, pro-8th of March versus pro-14th of March, pro-Hariri versus anti-Hariri thing,” he said.

“Once the country’s ruling elites frame the current crisis in sectarian and confessional terms, all the other initiatives concerning reform will go out the window.

“The second thing is to change the narrative. As protests amplify, the ruling elite will say that this is now a matter of national security.”

All of this may be already happening. On June 25, President Michel Aoun delivered a speech on Lebanon’s stability, in which he referred darkly to an “atmosphere of civil war” and portrayed the anti-government protests as an attempt to stir up sectarian discord.

“Ever since we have come to life in this country or in most of the Arab world, we have been told that security and stability is paramount to our survival,” said Saidi. “Any challenge to the existing order is framed as a challenge to security and stability. But once you use that argument, then you can start using the repressive forces of the state, and this is precisely what is happening today in Lebanon.

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“The army and security services are quelling rising protests. Internal security services are now checking on the exchange rate prices at foreign exchange dealers.”

The breaking point, said Saidi, will come in early September. “Give it a maximum of 90 days and we will see an explosion in the streets. Hospitals will start closing, schools and universities will not be able to open. People cannot afford to send people to school. You will most likely no longer have electricity and once you no longer have electricity, everything else will break down, including communications.”

Not entirely unsurprisingly, some Lebanese say it will take nothing short of another war for the country’s strong and entrenched political interests to be fatally disrupted.

“War is always an option but never a solution,” said Maha Yayha, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “In the short term, there needs to be an immediate fiscal stabilization. The economic collapse is now happening at an exponential rate and we cannot predict where it will go next.”




On June 25, President Michel Aoun delivered a speech on Lebanon’s stability, in which he referred darkly to an “atmosphere of civil war” and portrayed the anti-government protests as an attempt to stir up sectarian discord. (AN photo by Elias Moubarak) 

Yahya points to an increase in rioting by protesters at a local level, more clashes along sectarian lines and an increase in crime.

“There is now a 50 percent increase in levels of crime across the country, from petty crime, including people holding up pharmacies because they want diapers and baby milk and medicine, to murders,” she said.

In the medium to long term, Lebanon needs a new government that is credible both to the Lebanese and the international community, and with a mandate to carry out much-needed reforms, Yahya said.

However, this will not happen until political parties come together and decide “saving Lebanon is in their best interest,” she said.

“I don’t know what it will take,” said Yahya. “The country is imploding. The damage that is being done will last at least a generation. This will not be a recovery of two to three years as was suggested in December and January if reforms had been adopted immediately. Today, we are in a different zone altogether.”




Many Lebanese are unsurprised at the deadlock, which they see as resulting from a system in which every political faction looks out for its own interests rather than the interests of the nation. (AN photo by Elias Moubarak)

An agreement with the IMF, “which the country desperately needs, would bring in other donors to Lebanon, including the EU and possibly other Arab Gulf countries that have some means,” she said.

Saidi believes Lebanon’s ruling elites will try to divert attention from the increasing misery in the country.

“The misery index, which is the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, in Lebanon now is over 100 percent,” he said.

Pointing to central bank losses of $50 billion and reports of unorthodox accounting practices by the bank’s governor, Saidi said: “They are refusing to admit that they made mistakes, that there are embedded losses in the system, that there was a Ponzi scheme by the central bank — the banks benefited from this, and the shareholders of the banks and big depositors benefited from it.




Some Lebanese say it will take nothing short of another war for the country’s strong and entrenched political interests to be fatally disrupted. (AN photo by David Raffoul)

“What’s most significant is that they got their money out with the connivance of the central bank. Individuals who have their deposits or income in Lebanese pounds have seen their wealth and income go down by around 70 percent. The only other cases I have seen like this are following hyperinflation after the two world wars in Europe and the end of the Soviet Union. There is now a destruction of the middle class in Lebanon, as happened in the 1980s.”

Lebanon’s only hope lies with reform, Saidi said. “There will be no help from outside, from other Arab states or Europe, or the IMF and the international community, until reforms are made internally.”

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Meanwhile, the streets of Beirut are eerily empty at night. In the popular neighborhoods of Hamra, Ashrafieh and Gemmayze, where bars and restaurants used to overflow with Lebanese and foreign patrons, the buzz is gone. Beggars now seek help from the few passers-by, hoping for momentary reprieve from a slow-motion calamity.

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Twitter: @rebeccaaproctor


Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

Updated 26 April 2025
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Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

CAIRO: The Israeli army said in the early hours of Saturday that a missile that was launched from Yemen was intercepted before crossing into Israeli territory.
Sirens sounded in a number of areas in Israel following the launch, the Israeli army added in a statement.
There was no immediate comment from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, who have been launching attacks against Israel as well as ships they perceive as affiliated to Israel, in what they say is to support the Palestinians in Gaza against the Israeli offensive on the enclave.


Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

Updated 25 April 2025
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Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

  • Investigation gains momentum as French official files transferred to Judge Tarek Bitar
  • Lebanese President Aoun reiterates importance of judiciary in securing broader reform

BEIRUT: Former Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab appeared before Judge Tarek Bitar on Friday for questioning related to the devastating Beirut port explosion of Aug. 4, 2020. 

Diab was interrogated for two and a half hours before being remanded for further questions. The session came a week after Bitar questioned former Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk.

In recent weeks, former General Security Chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and former Head of State Security Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba also appeared before the judge.

The explosion devastated the capital’s waterfront, resulted in thousands of casualties, and has been compared in scale to a nuclear bomb.

It prompted widespread outrage both at home and abroad due to the long-term neglect in safely storing large quantities of ammonium nitrate at the port.

Diab, who was prime minister at the time of the explosion, had previously failed to attend hearings into the disaster for various reasons, notably claiming that “the investigative judge lacked jurisdiction to question” him, or stating that he was abroad.

For more than 18 months, several individuals contested their summons, arguing that Bitar was not the appropriate authority to investigate them.

They also initiated lawsuits against Bitar, whose work was suspended for a significant period due to political pressures and legal challenges.

During their unexpected appearances before the investigative judge, these individuals all expressed their intention to cooperate.

In Lebanon, political and judicial powers are intertwined, contrary to the constitution’s separation of powers principle.

The judiciary is mostly subject to political pressure, starting with judicial appointments, as with other institutions and administrations, which hinders reform efforts and the full independence of the judiciary.

A ministerial source told Arab News that President Joseph Aoun had always stressed two key pillars essential for the state’s recovery are security and the judiciary.

“The security appointments have been finalized, and measures are in place to restore security.

“The minister of justice and the High Judicial Council are actively working on judicial appointments to restore processes free from political interference and corruption.

“These procedures have started to affect the justice system, and everyone has begun to understand that the authority of the judiciary is not negotiable; the previously accepted method is no longer valid.”

The source emphasized that gaining political support for the judiciary is essential to shield it from interference.

This should be prioritized, particularly in light of the president’s commitment to maintaining judicial independence.

Additionally, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is dedicated to implementing the ministerial statement that received unanimous support through the vote of confidence in his government, said the source.

Political authorities are still debating the law on judicial independence, but it remains unapproved and is currently stalled in joint parliamentary committees.

Aoun has previously stressed his belief in the judiciary as a cornerstone of reform.

In a recent meeting with the Bar Association, he noted that the challenge is not the coubtry’s laws themselves, but their implementation and accountability for violations.

“Too often, laws are interpreted for personal gain and interests. By working together, individuals committed to justice and accountability can address imbalances, fight corruption, and promote responsibility,” he said.

“Only the judiciary has the authority to deter offenders and corruption,” the president added.

Currently, the High Judicial Council is investigating bribery cases involving several judges and has issued a preliminary arrest warrant for one of them, who was arrested and transferred to the prison run by the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces.

The council recently set up three bodies to investigate cases against judges.

Lawyer Ghida Frangieh — who represents victims of the Beirut port explosion — told Arab News that the “renewed cooperation between the Public Prosecution and investigative Judge Bitar is a crucial development.

“It will help revive the port explosion case and allow the investigation to continue until an indictment is issued and, ultimately, a trial takes place,” Frangieh said.

“The election of the republic’s president, setting up a functional government instead of a caretaker government, and the political will for reform would collectively help reactivate Lebanon’s judicial system.

“This should have been the scenario in the port investigations three years ago, and all pending judicial cases should now be addressed and resolved in due order,” Frangieh added.

A French delegation is set to arrive in Beirut next Monday, following the transfer of judicial summons from the Public Prosecution at the Court of Cassation in Lebanon to France.

Bitar has requested access to French investigations regarding the port explosion, and the French judiciary has expressed willingness to support the judge by providing all necessary files and documents for his investigation.

Several French nationals were among those killed and injured in the Beirut port explosion.


US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

A picture shows a view of UNESCO-listed buildings in the old city of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 12, 2023. (AFP file photo)
Updated 26 April 2025
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US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

  • A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis

WASHINGTON: The US military said a blast on Sunday near a UNESCO world heritage site in Yemen’s capital city of Sanaa was caused by a Houthi missile and not an American airstrike.
The Houthi-run Health Ministry said a dozen people were killed in the US strike in a neighborhood of Sanaa. The Old City of Sanaa is a recognized UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The US ordered the intensification of strikes on Yemen last month, with officials saying they will continue assaulting Houthis until they stop attacking Red Sea shipping.
A US Central Command spokesperson said the damage and casualties described by Houthi officials “likely did occur,” but a US attack did not cause them.
The spokesperson said the closest US strike was more than 5 km away that night.
The US military assessed that the damage was caused by a “Houthi air defense missile” based on a review of “local reporting, including videos documenting Arabic writing on the missile’s fragments at the market,” the spokesperson said, adding the Houthis subsequently arrested Yemenis.
A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis.
Recent US strikes have killed dozens, including 74 at an oil terminal on Thursday in what was the deadliest strike in Yemen under Trump so far, according to the local Health Ministry.
The US military says the strikes aim to cut off the Houthi militant group’s military and economic capabilities.
Rights advocates have raised concerns about civilian killings, and three Democratic senators, including Sen. Chris Van Hollen, wrote to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth on Thursday, demanding an accounting for the loss of civilian lives.
The Houthis have taken control of swaths of Yemen over the past decade.
Since November 2023, they have launched drone and missile attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting ships linked to Israel.

 


Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

Sudanese refugees fill jerry cans with water at the Touloum refugee camp in the Wadi Fira province, Chad, on April 8, 2025. (AFP
Updated 25 April 2025
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Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

  • Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way

IRIBA, Chad: Nadjala Mourraou held her haggard two-year-old son in her henna-tattooed hands for the medics to examine. Then came the painful diagnosis: little Ahma, like many of his fellow Sudanese refugees, was severely malnourished.
The pair were toward the front of a long line snaking out of the doctors’ tent at an already overcrowded refugee camp in east Chad, creaking under the strain as more and more people fleeing the civil war across the nearby border with Sudan turn up.
“We’re suffering from a lack of food,” complained the mother, who fled the fighting in Nyala, in Sudan’s South Darfur region, with Ahma more than a year ago.
Since their arrival at the Touloum camp, Mourraou added that all she and Ahma had to eat each day was a bowl of assida, a porridge made from sorghum.
Yet, as with other conditions at the camp, this meagre ration could deteriorate further as the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces drags on.
Besides killing tens of thousands, the two-year conflict has uprooted 13 million people, more than three million of whom have fled the country as refugees.
Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way.
Between 25,000 and 30,000 Sudanese refugees already live in the makeshift sheet metal and white canvas tents, packed together across the arid Touloum camp, according to sources.
Recently, more and more of them have become malnourished, said Dessamba Adam Ngarhoudal, a nurse with medical charity Doctors Without Borders, or MSF.
“Out of 100 to 150 daily consultations, nearly half of them deal with cases of malnutrition,” said the 25-year-old medic.
The worst cases are sent to the Iriba district hospital, around half an hour’s drive away.
But the hospital was powerless to stop the first Sudanese infant dying of malnutrition under its care.
“Since the beginning of the month, we have already exceeded the capacity of the malnutrition ward at the hospital,” said MSF nurse Hassan Patayamou recently.
“And we expect admissions to continue to rise as the hot season progresses and temperatures rise above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).”
With the fighting set to grind on, Chad’s government fears the number of Sudanese refugees in the country could soon reach nearly a million.
That burden would be too heavy for impoverished Chad to bear alone, argues the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
The refugee agency was seeking $409 million in aid to help the Sahel country — only 14 percent of which it had received by the end of February.
“The Chadian people have a tradition of welcoming their Sudanese brothers in distress,” said Djimbaye Kam-Ndoh, governor of Wadi Fira province where the Touloum camp is located.
“But the province’s population has practically doubled, and we’re asking for major support.”
Humanitarian groups are worried about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s move to freeze America’s foreign aid budget, while other donors, notably in Europe, have also made cuts to their financing.
“Hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake,” Alexandre Le Cuziat, the UN’s World Food Programme deputy director in Chad, said in a phone call.
Nearly 25 million people are suffering from acute food insecurity in Sudan itself, according to the WFP.
And with the rainy season just under two months away, medics fear outbreaks of diseases.
“We’re preparing for an explosion of cases of malnutrition and malaria,” said Samuel Sileshi, emergencies services coordinator for MSF in Central Darfur state.
“This year, we are also facing measles epidemics in Darfur,” he said.
That unhealthy cocktail of diseases, he warned, “could have devastating consequences,” not least for children.

 


WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

Updated 25 April 2025
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WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

  • Entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2

GAZA CITY, Palestinian Territories: The UN’s World Food Programme on Friday warned it has depleted all its food stocks in war-ravaged Gaza, where the entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2.
“Today, WFP delivered its last remaining food stocks to hot meals kitchens in the Gaza Strip. These kitchens are expected to fully run out of food in the coming days,” WFP said in a statement.