MADRID: Spain plunged into recession in the second quarter after its gross domestic product tumbled by 18.5 percent due to the coronavirus pandemic, official figures showed on Friday.
In the first quarter, growth had fallen by 5.2 percent, the Institute of National Statistics said (INE). A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of a contraction in GDP.
The first of estimate by INE is broadly in line with the forecast by the Bank of Spain which had seen a contraction in the economy of between 16 and 22 percent for the period between April to June at the height of the lockdown when all non-essential activities were halted.
The restrictions imposed under the state of emergency, which began in mid-March, were only gradually lifted in May and June.
The business, transport and hotels sector were all badly hit, with a 40 percent drop compared with the first quarter.
And tourism, a pillar of the Spanish economy which accounts for 12 percent of GDP, suffered with a 60 percent drop in revenues compared the same period in 2019.
Construction fell by 24 percent compared with the first quarter and industry by 18.5 percent. Household consumption dropped by around 21 percent and business investment by 22 percent while exports fell by around a third.
The Spanish government sees the economy contracting by 9.2 percent overall in 2020 but the Bank of Spain says that figure could reach 15 percent.
Analysts at Capital Economics said they were expecting the Spanish economy to contract “by some 12 percent this year and then recover only slowly thereafter, with a return to pre-virus size years away.”
“The record plunge in Spain’s GDP of 18.5 percent is likely to have been one of the biggest falls of any euro-zone country in the second quarter, illustrating the severity of the country’s lockdown and its slow and partial recovery,” it said in a note.
“And the recent rise in virus cases is likely to hold back the recovery in tourism, strengthening our view that the Spanish economy will struggle to rebound as quickly as its neighbors.”
Spain suffered a particularly deadly outbreak of the virus, with more than 28,400 people losing their lives.
However, it will benefit considerably from the historic €750 billion rescue plan that was agreed by the European Union’s 27 member states on July 21.
Under the plan, Spain will receive €140 billion ($162 billion) of which just over half — or €73 billion — is in the form of subsidies, while the rest is in the form of loans.
According to Economy Minister Nadia Calvino, the measures taken by the government to prop up the economy — such as extending its furlough scheme, state-sponsored loans, subsidies for the self-employed — enabled Spain to avoid “a collapse in GDP of more than 25 percent.”
The pandemic also destroyed more than a million jobs in Spain in the second quarter, mostly in the services and tourism sector.
Unemployment hit 15.3 percent by the end of June and is expected to reach 19 percent by the year’s end, the government says, although the IMF sees that figure rising to as much as 20.8 percent.
Spain in recession as economy shrinks 18.5% in the second quarter
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Spain in recession as economy shrinks 18.5% in the second quarter
- A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of a contraction in GDP
Saudi Central Bank lowers benchmark rate by 25 bps following US Fed decision
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s central bank has implemented its second interest rate reduction of 2024, lowering the benchmark by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent.
This adjustment mirrors the recent US Federal Reserve decision, which also cut rates by the same amount to a target of 4.5 - 4.75 percent.
In a statement, the central bank – also known as SAMA – said: “In light of global developments, and in accordance with the Central Bank’s objective of maintaining monetary stability, it has decided to reduce the Repurchase Agreement rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and the Reverse Repurchase Agreement rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent.”
Unlike the higher September cut of 50 basis points, this move is a strategic recalibration of monetary policy, aimed at easing high borrowing costs that have been sustained to combat inflation over the past two years.
Gulf Cooperation Council central banks align interest rates with the US Federal Reserve due to their currency pegs to the dollar, despite having stable inflation rates.
Both the UAE and Bahrain reduced rates by 25 basis points, while Qatar opted for a slightly larger 30-point cut.
Kuwait, however, took a different approach. Its central bank, which pegs its currency to a basket, rather than exclusively to the dollar, lowered rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 percent but did not announce further cuts in November as of date.
Over the past two years, the US Federal Reserve has aggressively tightened its monetary policy to tackle inflation, driving up interest rates in an effort to bring prices down.
Although inflation has made progress toward the Fed’s 2 percent target, it remains slightly elevated, and high costs persist for consumers.
The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with unemployment inching up but still at low levels. The Fed’s ongoing challenge is balancing inflation control with the need to maintain a healthy, resilient job market.
The decision to cut interest rates could have far-reaching implications for the GCC, particularly for Saudi Arabia’s economy.
The Kingdom’s non-oil sectors, already a key focus under Vision 2030, stand to benefit significantly from the influx of cheaper credit.
Sectors such as construction, real estate, and services, which have seen substantial growth, are expected to experience further acceleration.
Lower borrowing costs could spur investments in infrastructure and technology, both vital to the Kingdom’s diversification away from oil.
Corporate lending is also expected to see a boost, with businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like real estate, poised to take advantage of more affordable financing.
This could translate into more ambitious expansion plans, particularly for projects aligned with Vision 2030 goals, such as NEOM and the Red Sea Project.
The real estate market in particular could see a further surge as cheaper credit fuels demand for housing.
Riyadh’s growing population and influx of expatriates are likely to drive this trend, with lower interest rates making mortgages more affordable.
Oil Updates – prices fall as Hurricane Rafael expected to start weakening
SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell slightly on Friday as the risk that a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will significantly affect US oil and gas output declined, while the market weighs how President-elect Donald Trump’s policies might affect supplies.
Brent crude oil futures fell 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $75.16 per barrel by 7:46 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 55 cents or 0.8 percent to $71.81. The benchmarks fell after rising nearly 1 percent on Thursday.
For the week, Brent is set to gain 3.1 percent while WTI is set to rise 4.1 percent
Hurricane Rafael, which has caused 391,214 barrels per day of US crude oil production to be shut, is expected to move slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico and away from US fields while forecast to weaken from Friday and through the weekend, the US National Hurricane Center said.
Prices gained support on Thursday on expected actions by the incoming Trump administration such as tighter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could limit their supply to global markets.
“Our core view sees Trump adopt a relatively pragmatic approach to policy, in which he either chooses not to pursue more radical policy shifts, or is held back by institutional constraints or the influence of more moderate policy advisers,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note on Friday.
Downward pressure came from data showing crude imports in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, fell 9 percent in October, the sixth consecutive month showing a year-on-year decline, as well as from a rise in US crude inventories.
“The impact (of the Trump administration) on oil market fundamentals in 2025 will likely be somewhat limited,” BMI said.
Closing Bell: GCC stock markets up in wake of Trump’s election win
RIYADH: Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, stock markets across the Gulf Cooperation Council saw a strong rally.
Markets posted gains, with Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index finishing 0.31 percent up to close at 12,130.80 points on Thursday. This came after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump on winning the election in a phone call on Wednesday, according to the Saudi News Agency.
Dubai’s Financial Market mirrored the upward momentum, climbing 0.60 percent. Abu Dhabi’s Securities Exchange also saw a lift, finishing the day up 0.44 percent.
Bahrain’s Bourse recorded a rise of 0.52 percent, while Kuwait’s main market similarly rose, closing with a 0.10 percent gain.
However, the Muscat Securities Market in Oman saw a 0.17 percent decrease, while the Qatar Stock Exchange was closed for a public holiday.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index on TASI was SR7.53 billion ($2 billion) as 113 of the listed stocks advanced, while 111 retreated.
Similarly, the MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 2.03 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 1,521.79.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also climbed by 415.36 points, or 1.44 percent, to close at 29,269.00. This comes as 49 of the listed stocks advanced while as many as 22 retreated.
The best-performing stock of the day was Rasan Information Technology Co., whose share price surged by 7.13 percent to SR78.10.
Other top performers include Miahona Co., and Theeb Rent a Car Co., with Miahona’s share price climbing 6.75 percent to SR29.25 and Theeb’s rising 6.59 percent to SR79.30.
Naseej International Trading Co. and Al Moammar Information Systems Co. also posted rises.
The worst performer was Saudi Arabian Mining Co., whose share price dropped by 4.09 percent to SR53.90.
Other worst performers were Abdulmohsen Alhokair Group for Tourism and Development, whose share price fell by 3.18 percent to SR2.74, and ACWA Power Co., which saw a 2.95 percent drop to SR441.20.
On an announcement front, ACWA Power Co. announced its results for interim financial results for the first nine months of 2024, ending on Sept. 30, with revenues surging by 13.3 percent to reach SR1.74 billion, compared to SR1.542 billion in 2023.
The increase was primarily driven by higher revenue from electricity sales, operation and maintenance services, and additional income from development projects and construction management, the company said on Tadawul.
BinDawood Holding Co. also disclosed its financial results for the third quarter, with revenues slightly increasing by 0.189 percent to reach SR1.361 compared to the same quarter last year.
The company closed Thursday’s trading session at SR7.02, a 0.29 percent increase.
Saudi Steel Pipe Co. also released its financial results for the nine months of the year, recording SR381 million in revenues, a 20.18 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
The company closed today’s trading session at SR71.40, decreasing by 1.27 percent.
The United International Transportation Co. disclosed a 37.052 percent increase in revenues for the first nine months to reach SR505.8 million, compared to SR369.07 million during the same period last year.
This was primarily driven by the expansion of a long-term lease fleet and the resulting higher lease revenues.
The company closed at SR84, with its stock valie declining by 1.55 percent.
ACWA Power reports 16% profit increase amid record project launches
RIYADH: ACWA Power, the Saudi-listed energy and water desalination company, has announced a 16 percent increase in its profits for the first nine months of 2024, underpinned by significant progress in its power and water production projects.
For the period, ACWA Power’s net profit attributable to equity holders reached SR1.25 billion ($334 million), a rise fueled by a 12.5 percent increase in operating income, which reached SR2.36 billion.
This marks a strong improvement from the same period in 2023. According to a company press release, the growth was primarily driven by an investment gain from the restructuring of a project, alongside a capital recycling gain.
ACWA Power’s CEO, Marco Arcelli, highlighted the company’s commitment to growth, noting that its portfolio now includes 26 projects — the largest in its 20-year history.
“These projects reflect both the speed at which we are realizing our growth, through swift financial closes, and the scale of future cash flows from a diverse and young portfolio,” Arcelli said.
He reiterated the company’s focus on providing reliable, cost-effective energy and water, aiming to create positive impacts across all its operations.
Over the past nine months, ACWA Power successfully achieved financial closure on seven major projects worth SR31 billion. These include Saudi Arabia’s Taiba and Qassim Combined Cycle Gas Turbine projects, the Tashkent Solar PV project in Uzbekistan, and the Hassyan Seawater Reverse Osmosis plant in the UAE.
The company’s expansion in power generation is also evident, having added 2.4 GW of capacity during the same period, including the Ar Rass Solar PV project, a 700 MW solar plant that was completed in just 18 months.
On the renewable energy front, ACWA Power secured a 5 GW Power Purchase Agreement for the Aral Wind project in Uzbekistan, as well as 5.5 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity as part of Saudi Arabia’s fourth round of Public Investment Fund projects.
In water desalination, the company signed a Water Purchase Agreement for the 410,000 cubic meters per day Hamriyah Independent Water Project in the UAE.
Abdulhameed Al-Muhaidib, ACWA Power’s Chief Financial Officer, expressed confidence in the company’s future, stating, “In the first nine months of 2024, we saw strong project mobilization, achieving financial closure on seven projects worth SR31 billion. We also began generating revenue from 2.2 GW of projects that reached partial or full commercial operation.”
He added: “Our diversified asset base, visible growth pipeline, and resilient business model, combined with our focus on operational excellence, give us confidence in achieving sustainable, long-term financial performance.”
UAE banking sector’s net international reserves grow 11% by July 2024
RIYADH: The UAE’s banking sector saw a significant increase in its net international reserves, which rose by 11.1 percent— or 127.5 billion dirhams ($34.3 billion) — during the first seven months of 2024.
By the end of July, the reserves totaled 1.273 trillion dirhams, up from 1.145 trillion dirhams at the close of 2023.
According to the Central Bank of the UAE’s June statistical bulletin, the central bank’s share of these reserves stood at 771.6 billion dirhams at the end of July, reflecting a 14.6 percent increase compared to 673.42 billion dirhams at the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the net international reserves of banks operating in the UAE amounted to 501.6 billion dirhams, marking a 6.22 percent rise from 472.2 billion dirhams at the end of last year.
The bulletin also highlighted a notable increase in the central bank’s gold reserves, which grew by 23.5 percent year on year to 21.28 billion dirhams by July’s end, up from 17.226 billion dirhams in July 2023. Over the first seven months of 2024, gold reserves increased by 17.3 percent, from 18.147 billion dirhams at the close of 2023.
In terms of banking operations, the value of transfers processed through the UAE Financial Transfer System exceeded 11.13 trillion dirhams during the first seven months of 2024, reflecting a 17 percent year-on-year growth from 9.5 trillion dirhams in the same period in 2023.
Monthly remittance values were as follows: 1.512 trillion dirhams in January, 1.449 trillion dirhams in February, 1.565 trillion dirhams in March, 1.592 trillion dirhams in April, 1.78 trillion dirhams in May, 1.42 trillion dirhams in June, and 1.81 trillion dirhams in July.
Additionally, the central bank’s data revealed that the value of cheques cleared via image technology totaled 765.08 billion dirhams across more than 13 million cheques during the first seven months of 2024.
The bulletin also showed that cash deposits at the central bank reached 111.4 billion dirhams during the period, while cash withdrawals totaled 120.3 billion dirhams.
