MUMBAI: India’s worsening economic outlook as coronavirus cases soar has raised the chance the central bank will cut interest rates at its policy review on Thursday, in spite of inflationary pressures.
Around two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points (bps) on Aug. 6 to a record low of 3.50 percent, and once more next quarter.
“High inflation has added confusion to the Reserve Bank’s policy outlook, but given the state of aggregate demand, we forecast the RBI will continue easing,” said Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays who expects a 25-bp cut.
Annual retail inflation rose in June to 6.09 percent from 5.84 percent in March, remaining above the RBI’s medium-term target range of 2 percent-6 percent.
The RBI’s recent policies have focused on financial stability and the need to support growth despite the price target.
The country was placed under one of the strictest lockdowns in the world in late March for over two months to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The government gradually eased restrictions in June although infections continue to rise.
The poll showed most analysts expect the economy to contract 20 percent in the June quarter versus the April forecast of a 5.2 percent fall and remain in negative terrain until the December quarter.
For the full year 2020/21, the economy is likely to shrink 5.1 percent, which would be its weakest performance since 1979, a sharp contrast to the 1.5 percent expansion forecast in April.
Apart from rate cuts, Upasna Bharadwaj, economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects liquidity and regulatory measures from the RBI to address demand shocks and financial market dislocations.
“RBI may look to widen the policy corridor to 75 bps by easing reverse repo by a higher quantum,” she said, adding that though they expect a 25-bp rate cut, it may not be effective in the current environment.
The RBI has already reduced the repo rate by a total of 115 basis points since February, on top of the 135 basis points in an easing cycle last year, from 6.50 percent, responding to slowing growth.
Some economists, however, feel it may be prudent for the RBI to pause in August before resuming its rate-cutting cycle once inflation has stabilized.
Weakness in growth versus above-target inflation, improving indicators and concerns over inflation expectations will put the RBI in a tough spot, said DBS economist Radhika Rao.
“It will be a close call, but we see slightly higher odds for a pause.”
India’s central bank likely to cut rates despite inflation risk
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India’s central bank likely to cut rates despite inflation risk
- Annual retail inflation rose in June to 6.09 percent from 5.84 percent in March
- Country was placed under one of the strictest lockdowns in the world in late March
Riyad Bank issues SR-denominated Tier 1 sukuk
RIYADH: Riyad Bank has commenced the issuance of its additional Tier 1 sukuk under its SR10 billion ($2.66 billion) Additional Tier 1 Capital Sukuk Program via a private placement in the Kingdom.
In a statement to Tadawul, the lender, one of the largest financial institutions in Saudi Arabia, said that the terms of the offer and the value of the sukuk would be determined based on market conditions.
The financial institution added that the offering, which commenced on Jan. 7, will run through Jan. 16, with a minimum subscription limit of SR250,000.
Sukuk, also known as an Islamic bond, is a Shariah-compliant debt product through which investors gain partial ownership of an issuer’s assets until maturity.
According to the statement, the bank has mandated Riyad Capital as the sole lead manager in relation to the offer and issuance of the sukuk.
The financial institution added that it will announce any other relevant material developments in due course.
The steady issuance of sukuk happening in the Kingdom falls in line with the views shared by Fitch Ratings in a report in October, which said that the distribution of these Islamic bonds is expected to grow in 2025, driven by US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
According to Fitch, interest rates are expected to be at 3.5 percent in 2025, resulting in a boost in sukuk issuances in the short term.
In December, Fitch Ratings affirmed Riyad Bank’s long-term issuer default rating at A- with a stable outlook.
The US-based agency said that the A- rating of the financial institution is attributed to the support it receives from Saudi Arabia’s government.
The report added that Saudi authorities’ strong ability and willingness to support domestic banks irrespective of size, franchise, funding structure, and level of government ownership also played a crucial role in the strong rating of Riyad Bank.
According to Fitch, an A- rating denotes expectations of low default risk and a strong ability to pay financial commitments.
In October, Riyad Bank announced that its net profit for the first nine months of 2024 reached SR7.06 billion, representing a rise of 16 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
In December, an analysis by Kamco Invest projected that Saudi Arabia is expected to witness the greatest share of bond and sukuk maturities in the Gulf Cooperation Council region from 2025 to 2029 to reach $168 billion.
Oil Updates — prices dip as demand optimism fades
BEIJING/SINGAPORE: Oil prices eased on Tuesday, extending losses into a second consecutive session after last week’s rally, although concerns about tighter Russian and Iranian supply amid widening Western sanctions checked losses, according to Reuters.
Brent futures edged down 8 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $76.22 a barrel by 07:52 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 15 cents, or 0.19 percent, to $73.42.
Both benchmarks slid on Monday, after rising for five days in a row last week to settle at their highest levels since October on Friday amid expectations of more fiscal stimulus to revitalize China’s faltering economy.
“This week’s weakness is likely due to a technical correction, as traders react to softer economic data globally that undermines the optimism seen earlier,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, referring to bearish economic news from the US and Germany.
Also dragging on oil prices is the rising supply from non-OPEC countries that, coupled with weak demand from China, is expected to keep the oil market well supplied this year.
Market participants are waiting for more data this week, such as the US December nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, for clues on US interest rate policy and oil demand outlook.
“The move higher in crude oil prices appears to be running out of momentum,” ING analysts wrote in a note.
“While there has been some tightening in the physical market, fundamentals through 2025 are still set to be comfortable, which should cap the upside.”
Worries over tightening Russian and Iranian supply amid sanctions, however, kept a floor under oil prices.
The uncertainty has translated into better demand for Middle Eastern oil, reflected in a hike in Saudi Arabia’s February oil prices to Asia, the first such increase in three months.
Money managers raised their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to Dec. 31, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Monday.
Saudi Arabia issues $12bn three-part bond: NDMC
CAIRO: Saudi Arabia issued a $12 billion three-tranche bond, selling $5 billion, $3 billion and $4 billion in tenors of three, six and 10 years respectively, the National Debt Management Center said on Tuesday.
The total order book reached around $37 billion, equalling an over-subscription of three times the issuance, NDMC said in a statement.
The transaction is part of NDMC’s strategy to diversify the investor base and meet the Kingdom’s financing needs, it added.
Lucid beats estimates for EV deliveries as price cuts, cheaper financing spur demand
- Company handed over 3,099 vehicles in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31
- For 2024, production rose 7% to 9,029 vehicles, topping Lucid’s target of 9,000 vehicles
LONDON: Lucid Group beat expectations for quarterly deliveries on Monday, as the Saudi Arabia-backed maker of luxury electric vehicles lowered prices and offered cheaper financing to drive demand, sending its shares up more than 6 percent.
The company handed over 3,099 vehicles in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with estimates of 2,637, according to six analysts polled by Visible Alpha. That represented growth of 11 percent over the third quarter and 78 percent higher than the fourth quarter a year earlier.
Production rose about 42 percent to 3,386 vehicles in the reported quarter from a year earlier, surpassing estimates of 2,904 units.
For 2024, production rose 7 percent to 9,029 vehicles, topping the company’s target of 9,000 vehicles. Annual deliveries grew 71 percent to 10,241 vehicles.
Lucid, backed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, started taking orders for its Gravity SUV in November, in a bid to enter the lucrative SUV sector and take some market share from Rivian and Tesla.
Rivian on Friday topped analysts’ estimates for quarterly deliveries and said its production was no longer constrained by a component shortage. But Tesla reported its first fall in yearly deliveries, in part due to the company’s aging lineup.
Demand for EVs, already squeezed by competition from hybrid vehicles, could face another challenge as President-elect Donald Trump is expected to reverse many of the Biden administration’s EV-friendly policies and incentives.
The company also raised $1.75 billion in October through a stock sale that CEO Peter Rawlinson believes will provide Lucid with a “cash runway well into 2026.”
Lucid, whose stock was down about 28 percent in 2024, is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 25.
Saudi Arabia’s PIF completes $7bn inaugural murabaha credit facility
- Shariah-compliant financing is backed by a syndicate of 20 international and regional financial institutions
- Facility builds on PIF’s recent success with sukuk issuances over the past two years
RIYADH: The Saudi Public Investment Fund has closed its first Murabaha credit facility, securing $7 billion in funding. This is a key step in the fund's plan to raise capital over the next several years.
The Shariah-compliant financing is backed by a syndicate of 20 international and regional financial institutions, according to a press release.
A murabaha credit facility is a financing structure compliant with Islamic principles, where the lender purchases an asset and sells it to the borrower at an agreed profit margin, allowing repayment in installments. This structure avoids interest, adhering to Shariah laws.
“This inaugural murabaha credit facility demonstrates the flexibility and depth of PIF’s financing strategy and use of diversified funding sources, as we continue to drive transformative investments, globally and in Saudi Arabia,” said Fahad Al-Saif, PIF’s head of the Global Capital Finance Division and head of Investment Strategy and Economic Insights Division.
The facility builds on PIF’s recent success with sukuk issuances over the past two years, further bolstering its financial strength and commitment to best practices in debt management.
Rated Aa3 by Moody’s and A+ by Fitch, both with stable outlooks, PIF continues to solidify its position as a global financial powerhouse.
The fund’s capital structure is supported by four main funding sources, including contributions from the Saudi government, asset transfers, retained investment earnings, and financing through loans and debt instruments.
PIF’s strategy focuses on financing initiatives that contribute to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and internationally.
The $7 billion murabaha credit facility is expected to bolster PIF’s liquidity, supporting its investments both locally and globally.
By diversifying its funding sources through a Shariah-compliant structure, PIF looks to enhance its financial partnerships while complementing its existing financing tools, such as sukuk issuances.
This aligns with its medium-term capital strategy, ensuring flexibility, competitive financing terms, and risk mitigation.
Earlier in January, the National Debt Management Center also secured a Shariah-compliant revolving credit facility worth SR9.4 billion ($2.5 billion).
The three-year facility, supported by three regional and international financial institutions, is designed to meet the Kingdom’s general budgetary requirements.
Aligned with Saudi Arabia’s medium-term public debt strategy, the arrangement focuses on diversifying funding sources to meet financing needs at competitive terms.
It also adheres to robust risk management frameworks and the Kingdom’s approved annual borrowing plan.
PIF has been actively engaging in credit arrangements to support its investment initiatives and the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.
In August 2024, PIF secured a $15 billion revolving credit facility for general corporate purposes, replacing a similar facility agreed upon in 2021.
In addition to the revolving credit facility, PIF has diversified its financing instruments by issuing a $2 billion seven-year Islamic sukuk earlier in 2024 and planning to issue bonds in pounds sterling.
These efforts are part of PIF’s strategy to leverage a variety of funding sources to support its expansive investment activities.
