MUMBAI: India’s worsening economic outlook as coronavirus cases soar has raised the chance the central bank will cut interest rates at its policy review on Thursday, in spite of inflationary pressures.
Around two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points (bps) on Aug. 6 to a record low of 3.50 percent, and once more next quarter.
“High inflation has added confusion to the Reserve Bank’s policy outlook, but given the state of aggregate demand, we forecast the RBI will continue easing,” said Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays who expects a 25-bp cut.
Annual retail inflation rose in June to 6.09 percent from 5.84 percent in March, remaining above the RBI’s medium-term target range of 2 percent-6 percent.
The RBI’s recent policies have focused on financial stability and the need to support growth despite the price target.
The country was placed under one of the strictest lockdowns in the world in late March for over two months to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The government gradually eased restrictions in June although infections continue to rise.
The poll showed most analysts expect the economy to contract 20 percent in the June quarter versus the April forecast of a 5.2 percent fall and remain in negative terrain until the December quarter.
For the full year 2020/21, the economy is likely to shrink 5.1 percent, which would be its weakest performance since 1979, a sharp contrast to the 1.5 percent expansion forecast in April.
Apart from rate cuts, Upasna Bharadwaj, economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects liquidity and regulatory measures from the RBI to address demand shocks and financial market dislocations.
“RBI may look to widen the policy corridor to 75 bps by easing reverse repo by a higher quantum,” she said, adding that though they expect a 25-bp rate cut, it may not be effective in the current environment.
The RBI has already reduced the repo rate by a total of 115 basis points since February, on top of the 135 basis points in an easing cycle last year, from 6.50 percent, responding to slowing growth.
Some economists, however, feel it may be prudent for the RBI to pause in August before resuming its rate-cutting cycle once inflation has stabilized.
Weakness in growth versus above-target inflation, improving indicators and concerns over inflation expectations will put the RBI in a tough spot, said DBS economist Radhika Rao.
“It will be a close call, but we see slightly higher odds for a pause.”
India’s central bank likely to cut rates despite inflation risk
https://arab.news/83nkg
India’s central bank likely to cut rates despite inflation risk
- Annual retail inflation rose in June to 6.09 percent from 5.84 percent in March
- Country was placed under one of the strictest lockdowns in the world in late March
Saudi Arabia issues 36k investment licenses since Vision 2030 launch
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has now issued more than 36,000 investment licenses, a five-fold rise compared to the overall active permits before the launch of Vision 2030.
According to the government-backed Invest Saudi platform, the Kingdom witnessed an 118 percent growth in entrepreneurial license issuance in 2024 compared to the previous year, while permits in the wholesale and retail trade sector increased by 123 percent during the same period.
The Kingdom launched the Invest Saudi initiative to attract foreign direct investment by offering incentives, streamlining regulatory processes, and facilitating partnerships.
As part of this, the Kingdom updated its investment law in August to ensure enhanced protections for international investors, including adherence to the rule of law, fair treatment, and property rights, while ensuring robust safeguards for intellectual property and facilitating smooth fund transfers.
“Saudi Arabia is growing steadily in achieving remarkable milestones and attracting investments, exceeding the targets of Saudi Vision 2030 with exceptional results in license issuance and the growth of promising sectors,” said Invest Saudi on X.
It added that the most licensed sectors since the launch of Vision 2030 are manufacturing, construction, professional and scientific, as well as wholesale and retail trade, and information and communication technology.
Invest Saudi further said that the Kingdom has surpassed its regional headquarters target outlined in the Vision 2030 program, as more than 500 international firms have established their Middle Eastern base in the country.
The Kingdom’s regional headquarters program provides benefits for international firms, including a 30-year exemption from corporate income tax and withholding tax on headquarters activities for companies, as well as discounts and support services.
Some of the major companies that have launched their regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia include US-based multinational investment banks Morgan Stanley and Citi Group, as well as BlackRock Inc., Northern Trust, Bechtel, and PepsiCo.
Invest Saudi is supporting the Kingdom’s National Investment Strategy, which is aiming to increase FDI by more than 20x from SR17 billion ($4.5 billion) in 2019 to SR388 billion in 2030.
It is also targeting increasing investment from 22 percent of GDP in 2019 to 30 percent by the end of the decade.
Saudi education spending kicks off 2025 with 25% surge, pushing POS transactions to $4bn
RIYADH: Saudis spent SR207.3 million ($55.2 million) on education between Dec. 29 and Jan. 4, marking a 25.8 percent increase compared to the previous week.
According to the weekly point-of-sale transactions bulletin, this sector recorded the largest positive change over the seven-day period. It also witnessed growth in terms of the number of transactions, surging by 0.6 percent to reach 131,000.
Overall, Saudi Arabia’s POS spending registered a weekly increase of 9.2 percent, reaching SR15.1 billion, up from SR13.8 billion the week before. Figures from the Kingdom’s central bank showed that the hotel sector saw the second-largest gain at 15.1 percent to SR400.6 million.
Spending on recreation and culture followed, recording a 14.8 percent uptick to SR328.6 million.
Transactions on jewelry recorded an increase of 12.8 percent to reach SR355.4 million, and expenditure on construction and building materials surged by 3.9 percent to SR399.9 million.
Similarly, spending on food and beverages also grew 3.9 percent to SR2.16 billion, claiming the biggest share of the total POS value.
Expenditure in restaurants and cafes followed, recording a 10.1 percent increase to SR2.13 billion.
Spending on miscellaneous goods and services accounted for the third biggest POS share, with a 12.3 percent uptick, reaching SR1.8 billion.
Transactions in the leading three categories accounted for approximately 40.8 percent or SR6.1 billion of the week’s total value.
At 2.8 percent, the smallest increase occurred in spending on gas electronics, leading total payments to reach SR176 million.
Expenditures on transportation increased by 6.5 percent to SR140 million, while spending on public utilities surged by 7.3 percent to reach SR57.5 million.
Geographically, Riyadh dominated POS sales, representing around 33.8 percent of the total, with expenses in the capital reaching SR5.1 billion — a 7 percent decrease from the previous week.
Jeddah followed with a 13.1 percent surge to SR2.1 billion, and Dammam came in third at SR755 million, up 8.5 percent.
Buraidah experienced the most significant surge in spending, increasing 13.5 percent to SR358.7 million.
Tabuk and Abha recorded increases of 5.5 percent and 9.4 percent, reaching SR285.3 million and SR170.5 million, respectively.
Makkah and Jeddah saw the largest increases in terms of number of transactions, surging 11 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively, to 9.6 million and 27.4 million transactions.
Emirati billionaire to invest $20bn in US data centers, Trump says
- Hussain Sajwani promised investment feeds for constructing data centers for developing AI and expanding cryptocurrency
- Investment by DAMAC Properties in the UAE is intended to highlight Trump’s ability to attract new money for big projects
PALM BEACH, Florida: Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani promised a $20 billion investment in the booming US data center industry in the coming years, he and US President-elect Donald Trump announced on Tuesday at Trump’s home in Palm Beach, Florida.
With an election victory largely driven by voters’ economic concerns, Trump has doubled down on bolstering investments in domestic industries and proposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods as the US tries to curb China’s access to the chips needed for advanced data centers.
“We’re planning to invest $20 billion and even more than that, if the opportunity in the market allows us,” said Sajwani, chairman of Dubai developer DAMAC, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home.
DAMAC owns the Middle East’s only Trump-branded golf course in Dubai, which opened in 2017, and the billionaire celebrated the New Year with Trump in Florida.
Trump has an affinity for announcements promising economic growth, though such investments do not always pan out. Early in his first term, he announced a $10 billion Foxconn investment in a Wisconsin factory that promised thousands of jobs but was mostly abandoned.
Last month Trump and SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son announced the Japanese tech investor would invest $100 billion in the US over the next four years, focused around AI.
The introduction of OpenAI’s GenAI chatbot ChatGPT in late 2022 kicked off a wave of investment in generative AI technology and the pricey infrastructure required to support it, including power generation and transmission.
Microsoft said last week it would spend about $80 billion this fiscal year to ramp up its AI capacity.
Restrictions on the export of coveted AI chips used in advanced data centers to China have tightened under the Biden administration, and Trump has nominated China hard-liners to key diplomatic and economic roles in his administration.
Oil Updates — crude rises on tighter OPEC supply, US jobs data
SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Wednesday as supplies from Russia and OPEC members tightened while data showing an unexpected increase in US job openings pointed to expanding economic activity and consequent growth in oil demand.
Brent crude was up 37 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $77.42 a barrel at 10:30 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 44 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $74.69.
Oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in December after two months of increases, a Reuters survey showed. Field maintenance in the UAE offset a Nigerian output hike and gains elsewhere in the group.
In Russia, oil output averaged 8.971 million barrels a day in December, below the country’s target, Bloomberg reported citing the energy ministry.
On the economic front, job openings rose in the US in November and the number of layoffs was low, while workers were reluctant to quit, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed.
“Robust US economic data continues to bolster the outlook for the US economy and oil demand, further supported by a larger-than-anticipated drawdown in crude inventories,” said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.
“After trading within a prolonged tight range since October last year, selling pressures may have been exhausted for now, paving the way for a modest recovery,” Yeap said.
US crude oil stocks fell last week while fuel inventories rose, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
Going forward, analysts expect oil prices to be on average down this year from 2024 due in part to production increases from non-OPEC countries.
“We are holding to our forecast for Brent crude to average $76/bbl in 2025, down from an average of $80/bbl in 2024,” BMI, a division of Fitch Group, said in a client note.
“The bearish view is being led by our fundamental data forecast, which points to an oversupply this year, with supply growth outstripping demand growth by 485,000 barrels per day.”
Saudi Cabinet approves new law to regulate petroleum, petchem sector
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Cabinet has approved a new Petroleum and Petrochemical Law to ensure a reliable and secure supply of products within the Kingdom.
The law, which was approved on Jan. 7, is designed to optimize the use of raw materials in the sector and support the localization of the value chain, according to a report by the Saudi Press Agency.
The new legislation will replace the existing Petroleum Products Trade Law and is expected to achieve several key objectives, including regulating petroleum and petrochemical operations. It aims to accelerate the sector’s growth, foster economic development, and encourage increased investment in the industry.
Upon the law’s approval, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman expressed gratitude to the Cabinet, emphasizing that the law would help establish a robust legislative framework for the Kingdom’s energy sector. He added that the new directive would facilitate the optimal use of petroleum and petrochemical resources.
The law will regulate the use, sale, purchase, and transportation of petrochemical products, as well as oversee the operation of distribution stations and petrochemical facilities, the Saudi Press Agency report noted.
In addition to the Petroleum and Petrochemical Law, the Cabinet approved several other agreements on Jan. 7. These include a memorandum of understanding for cooperation between Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Justice and Singapore’s Ministry of Law, an MoU on health cooperation with Morocco’s Ministry of Health and Social Protection, and an MoU to strengthen digital government collaboration between Saudi Arabia’s Digital Government Authority and Qatar’s Ministry of Communications and Information Technology.
The Cabinet also endorsed an air services agreement between Saudi Arabia and Eswatini, a Southern African nation.
Furthermore, the Cabinet reviewed ongoing development programs and projects aimed at diversifying the Kingdom’s economy, exploring new revenue streams, and maximizing the use of available resources.
