Investors, analysts and sources close to Turkey’s central bank say that the most direct solution to the lira’s costly slide, in the form of a rate hike, would only happen as a last resort. (AFP)
Erdogan believes high rates cause inflation and sacked his previous central bank chief for not following his instructions
Updated 07 August 2020
Reuters
ISTANBUL: Turkish central bank head Murat Uysal has stuck to the rate-cutting script since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hired him to lift Turkey out of a recession and currency crisis.
A year later with the COVID-19 pandemic now crushing the lira, some traders and analysts say they think Uysal will instead hike rates to head off a deeper crisis.
Erdogan, whose 17 years in power have been marked by cheap credit and booming growth, has repeated the unorthodox view that high rates cause inflation and sacked Uysal’s predecessor for not following his instructions.
The central bank did not immediately comment on expectations of higher rates or on political pressure. Uysal said last week that policy was in line with the central bank’s inflation forecasts and he has said in the past it has policy independence.
Investors, analysts and sources close to Turkey’s central bank say that the most direct solution to the lira’s costly slide, in the form of a rate hike, would only happen as a last resort.
Erdogan’s office was not available to comment, while a spokesman for the Treasury did not immediately respond.
After the central bank slashed rates to 8.25 percent from 24 percent in less than a year, such a quick policy turn-around would likely need the government’s tacit approval, analysts say.
Nevertheless, money market traders have been adding to bets in recent days that Uysal, who halted an aggressive year-long easing cycle in June, has little choice but to tighten policy soon to avoid a second currency crisis in as many years.
HIGHLIGHTS
Lira hits historic low vs dollar as volatility returns.
After aggressive easing, traders bet on policy reversal.
Previous central bank head sacked for ignoring Erdogan.
The lira hit a historic low on Thursday and is down nearly 20 percent versus the dollar so far this year, despite the greenback’s own weak performance.
While the central bank’s policy rate is 8.25 percent, the November money market pricing for three-month lending is at 10.75 percent, implying 250 basis points of tightening by year-end.
Some fear that in a worst-case scenario, interventions to stabilize the lira lose steam as the central bank’s reserves run thin, prompting further depreciation, inflation and a ballooning current account deficit.
“We have a lot of ingredients here to have a full blown crisis,” said Nikolay Markov, senior economist at Pictet Asset Management. “The hope is to have a more proactive policy response from the central bank.”
Turkish annual inflation is high at near 12 percent, leaving real rates deeply negative for depositors in lira, a factor which has hastened the currency’s slide.
Economists polled by Reuters before the latest lira selloff expected more rate cuts once things cooled down.
But after two weeks of volatility, Goldman Sachs now expects 175 points of hikes by year end. Pictet’s Markov said that Turkey boasts the biggest gap among major emerging markets between the current policy rate and where it should be based on inflation and other factors.
Ankara is running out of alternatives to monetary policy.
The central bank’s gross FX reserves have dwindled to $51 billion from $81 billion this year, official figures show.
Data and the calculations of traders show the drop is in part due to the central bank and state banks selling some $110 billion in dollars since last year, including an acceleration in recent weeks, to stabilize the lira.
Ankara’s appeals for funding from the US Federal Reserve and other central banks have only yielded a deal with Qatar.
Rate hikes are only an option if more foreign funding cannot be found, a senior Turkish banker said, adding: “We do not anticipate a rate rise unless there is no other option.”
BNPL emerges as the preferred payment option for Saudi consumers
Updated 42 min 55 sec ago
Nour El-Shaeri
RIYADH: The fintech landscape in Saudi Arabia is rapidly transforming daily financial practices, with buy now, pay later services gaining significant popularity. This shift is simplifying access to flexible payment options, reshaping how people manage their finances and make purchases across the nation.
According to a recent report from leading BNPL provider Tabby, 77 percent of Saudi consumers now use BNPL for essential purchases.
Data from Tabby shows that first-time BNPL transactions are twice as likely to be for necessary items rather than discretionary ones, with education and medical expenses at the forefront. This indicates that a large portion of BNPL usage is dedicated to essential transactions rather than non-essential wants.
Tabby’s data also reveals that the average value of essential purchases made through BNPL is higher than that of discretionary spending. This suggests that while consumers are prioritizing needs, BNPL offers an accessible and affordable way to purchase high-value necessities, such as insurance and home goods.
Impact of BNPL
By allowing payments to be spread over an extended period, BNPL has revolutionized shopping habits. Not only does it provide consumers with more control over their finances, but it also alters their relationship with businesses.
In an interview with Arab News, Tarabut CEO Abdulla Al-Moayed explained that the rise of BNPL among Saudi consumers can be attributed to several factors.
Tarabut CEO Abdulla Al-Moayed
“BNPL’s interest-free installment structure makes it an attractive and Shariah-compliant payment option for many Saudi consumers — a positive shift from traditional credit cards or loans,” he said.
“Because BNPL offers a low-barrier alternative to traditional credit, it doesn’t require a high credit score or lengthy approval process, making it accessible to a wider population, particularly younger and lower-income individuals. The ease of using BNPL through mobile apps and online platforms also aligns well with a generation that values convenience and speed,” Al-Moayed added.
He also pointed out that the supportive regulatory environment in Saudi Arabia has fueled the rapid growth of fintech solutions, leading to the emergence of various local BNPL providers. This increased competition has ultimately led to better services and offerings for consumers.
Arjun Vir Singh, partner and global head of fintech at business intelligence firm Arthur D. Little, offered another perspective on the surge in BNPL adoption. He noted that the e-commerce boom, accelerated by COVID-19, has significantly driven the growth of BNPL among consumers. Singh also emphasized the growing convergence of online and offline shopping experiences.
Arjun Vir Singh, partner and global head of fintech at business intelligence firm Arthur D. Little. Supplied
“As customers’ journeys and payment methods in-store and offline become increasingly digital, we expect BNPL adoption to expand into this segment as well,” he said.
Singh further explained that digital payments, seamless integration, merchant sponsorship, and the rising cost of living have all contributed to BNPL’s rapid growth.
BNPL vs. traditional credit
Singh noted that BNPL is beginning to disrupt traditional credit models in consumer finance, a trend that is expected to expand as BNPL adoption spreads across sectors like travel, real estate, and automotive. “Arguably, the biggest impact will come if BNPL successfully expands into the B2B credit and financing segment,” he stated.
Singh also highlighted that banks and credit card companies are already responding to the rise of BNPL by adjusting their consumer finance offerings. Many are now partnering with BNPL providers or collaborating with major players like Visa and Mastercard, which are concerned about losing consumer spending. Some banks are even developing their own flexible payment solutions that mimic the BNPL model.
For Al-Moayed, the simplicity, transparency, and digitalization of consumer credit will force traditional credit models to adapt.
“Traditional credit models that rely on rigorous background checks and higher entry barriers need to evolve quickly while still managing risk effectively, in order to appeal to a broader consumer base and offer more flexible, secure, and customer-friendly credit options,” he said.
He also emphasized the role of Open Banking in this evolution, saying it could revolutionize credit risk management by utilizing real-time and historical behavioral data. “Open Banking has the potential to make a significant impact by giving lenders more agile and secure access to data, enabling personalized credit solutions,” Al-Moayed added.
As BNPL expands consumer spending power, he believes that as the market matures, empowered consumers will become more financially literate, leading to better-informed financial decisions.
“Open Banking will help by providing enriched data to improve insights into consumers’ financial health, preventing unsustainable debt,” he said.
Al-Moayed also pointed out that early adopters of Open Banking will gain a competitive edge by providing more intelligent financial services, better user experiences, and faster, more affordable options for all consumers.
Singh concurs, noting that as traditional players adjust to the changing landscape, innovation in consumer finance will continue to flourish. “This shift includes segmenting customers based on different criteria, using alternative data to enhance credit models, and adapting models to the nature of the spend. Innovation is also extending to customer service, not just credit models,” Singh said.
Merchants and BNPL
“Retailers have been the greatest sponsors of BNPL, helping to legitimize and drive the growth of e-commerce,” said Singh. This was initially true for e-commerce platforms, but as more retail experiences shift online, BNPL adoption among merchants has grown exponentially. “The adoption of digital payment solutions across all retail models is driving BNPL growth,” Singh added.
Arthur D. Little’s proprietary research has shown that merchants are seeing substantial benefits from BNPL, including increased average transaction values, more frequent purchases, access to new customers, and lower customer acquisition costs. Merchants also enjoy a differentiated offering compared to their competitors.
Al-Moayed agrees that BNPL offers numerous advantages for merchants but suggests that more value could be unlocked by leveraging the data collected on consumer behavior and spending patterns. “Merchants should explore how to use this valuable data to offer personalized promotions or product recommendations,” he said.
“Hyper-personalized sales and marketing will be key to increasing customer engagement and loyalty. This will soon be expected across the Kingdom’s retail market,” Al-Moayed added.
The future of BNPL
“Over the next few years, BNPL services will become even more integrated into the broader financial ecosystem, using Open Banking to enhance personalization and accessibility,” said Al-Moayed.
He also foresees the global adoption of big data and artificial intelligence further enhancing the BNPL customer experience. “We may see BNPL providers developing educational tools to help consumers manage their financial health effectively while using these services,” he added.
Singh, however, envisions a different future for BNPL. “BNPL will expand into the B2B segment, particularly as a tool to service underserved micro and small businesses,” he said.
Singh also predicts that AI, enhanced regulations, and market consolidation will all play crucial roles in BNPL’s future growth.
Saudi Arabia introduces new laws to streamline business registration and trade names
Updated 27 December 2024
Miguel Hadchity
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s new regulations designed to streamline commercial registration and trade name processes have been described as a “game-changer” for entrepreneurs.
Approved in September, the laws are set to come into force in the coming weeks and aim to enhance business efficiency and improve the overall commercial environment.
Experts have told Arab News that the new regulations will help encourage small businesses, particularly those led by women — key components of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy.
In the first quarter of 2024 alone, the trade sector saw 104,000 new commercial registrations, marking a 59 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. The Ministry of Commerce also issued 65,363 permits during this time last year.
When the changes were announced, Minister of Commerce Majid bin Abdullah Al-Qasabi said they were designed to simplify business operations by offering a unified national registration system.
Ryan Al-Nesayan, partner at business intelligence firm Arthur D. Little, hailed these regulations as a “game-changer,” stating that by simplifying and speeding up the registration process, the new laws eliminate bureaucratic bottlenecks that previously slowed down business launches.
Ryan Al-Nesayan, partner at business intelligence firm Arthur D. Little. Supplied
He told Arab News: “This is especially important for startups where every delay can cost momentum. Entrepreneurs can now get their ventures off the ground quickly, focusing on growth rather than navigating paperwork.”
Al-Nesayan noted that the sharp rise in business registrations is a clear indication that Saudi Arabia is becoming a magnet for entrepreneurial activity. He attributes this growth to the government’s focus on business-friendly reforms and Vision 2030 initiatives, which are creating a more streamlined business environment.
Notably, women received 44 percent of the new registrations in the first three months of 2024, underscoring a significant rise in female participation in the business world.
Al-Nesayan emphasized the importance of this statistic, pointing out that the new regulations are removing barriers that previously discouraged female entrepreneurs.
He added: “As the environment becomes more accessible, we’re likely to see continued growth in women-led businesses, which supports gender inclusivity in Saudi Arabia’s economic development.”
The introduction of these regulations brings the total number of commercial certificates issued across Saudi Arabia to over 1.45 million.
Jihad Chidiac, a Lebanon-based attorney, explained that the two new laws, the Commercial Registration Law and the Trade Names Law, are set to take effect 180 days after their publication in the official gazette, which is expected within the next few weeks.
Jihad Chidiac, a Lebanon-based attorney. Supplied
These laws will fully replace older legislation, with the current Law of Commercial Register having been in effect since 1995 and the Trade Names Law issued in 1999.
According to Chidiac, the introduction of these two laws “comes in alignment with the recent legal reforms the Kingdom is undertaking, including the new Investment Law permitting full foreign ownership of companies, and the amendment of the Labor law, while having as the main goal the implementation of Vision 2030 and the attraction of foreign investments into the Kingdom.”
Chidiac further elaborated that the new Trade Names Law specifically enhances the legal protection of intellectual property, making it easier for businesses to reserve, transfer, and protect their trade names.
He noted that the new law “prohibits the registration of names similar to existing ones regardless of different business activities, and simplifies the transfer of trade name ownership without requiring the transfer of the entire business.”
This step, according to Chidiac, is aimed at reducing conflicts and enhancing fair competition by encouraging businesses to adopt unique, distinctive trade names.
The new laws also set guidelines for the resolution of disputes related to trade names and business registration.
Chidiac commented that the centralized electronic database for business and trade name registrations will reduce duplication, improve transparency, and promote uniformity across the Kingdom.
He explained that the improved registration processes and enhanced legal framework will likely prevent conflicts over similar trade names.
He also mentioned that Saudi Arabia’s legal system encourages alternative dispute resolution methods such as mediation and arbitration, which help reduce the burden on courts and offer flexible options for businesses involved in disputes.
According to Abdulrahman Al-Hussein, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, the new system is based on international best practices.
Arthur D. Little’s Al-Nesayan agreed, noting that the adoption of international best practices in the new registration system will make Saudi Arabia a more attractive market for foreign investors.
He explained: “The unified national registration system is a major win for both local and foreign businesses. It removes the complexity of dealing with multiple agencies and provides a one-stop platform for all business-related registrations.”
This, he added, signals a more predictable and transparent operating environment, aligning with global standards and making market entry far smoother for international companies.
The reforms also provide enhanced trade name protection, which Al-Nesayan highlighted as crucial for businesses looking to scale both domestically and internationally.
“In today’s market, a business’s brand is often one of its most valuable assets,” he said. “By ensuring stronger protection for trade names, companies can confidently invest in their brand, knowing it’s secure. Over time, this will build consumer trust, enhance market presence, and support long-term growth.”
For those with existing sub-registers, a five-year grace period is being offered to either transfer or cancel their registrations. Chidiac pointed out that while this grace period offers flexibility, it also raises challenges for businesses regarding the company’s history and anteriority, particularly if they opt to cancel their sub-registers.
He explained that companies must carefully consider the potential impact on their business identity when making decisions during this transition phase.
Alongside these changes, the cabinet also approved a new real estate transaction tax system and other related measures. Chidiac explained that the new real estate law replaces the previous 15 percent VAT on real estate sales with a 5 percent tax on property ownership transfers.
He noted that this reform will not only ease the financial burden on businesses but also attract local and foreign investment into the real estate sector.
Certain transactions, such as inheritance distribution and charitable transfers, are exempt from this tax, which Chidiac believes will stimulate increased activity in the real estate market.
Al-Nesayan also highlighted the significance of this new real estate transaction tax system, noting that it complements the broader business reforms by promoting a more structured and transparent property market.
He explained that such transparency is essential as Saudi Arabia grows as a business hub, stabilizing property markets and supporting broader economic diversification efforts.
Chidiac added that legal counsel will play a crucial role in helping businesses navigate the transitional period for the new regulations, particularly regarding the five-year grace period for existing registrations.
He emphasized the need for businesses to stay informed and seek professional advice to ensure compliance with the updated regulations.
Al-Nesayan echoed this sentiment, advising businesses to engage with legal and business advisory services early on to fully benefit from the streamlined processes.
He added: “Being agile in adapting to these reforms will give businesses a significant competitive edge in this evolving landscape.”
Egypt central bank keeps overnight interest rates steady
Updated 27 December 2024
Reuters
CAIRO: Egypt’s central bank kept its overnight interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, saying that while inflation was set to decelerate sharply in early 2025 it nonetheless remained high.
The bank’s monetary policy committee kept the lending rate at 28.25 percent and the deposit rate at 27.25 percent, it said in a statement.
The unanimous forecast in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts was that the committee would keep rates steady.
Egypt’s headline inflation dipped in November to 25.5 percent, its lowest since December 2022, and has been trending downwards from a record high of 38.0 percent in September 2023.
“Inflation is projected to ease substantially in 2025, as the cumulative impact of monetary policy tightening and favorable base effect materializes, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 and convergence to single digits by H2 2026,” the statement said.
It added that according to leading indicators, economic growth accelerated in the second half of 2024 from the 2.4 percent recorded in the second quarter.
“The committee judges that the current policy rates remain appropriate to maintain a tight monetary stance until a significant and sustained decline in inflation is achieved, and expectations are firmly anchored,” the statement said.
Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism
Updated 27 December 2024
REUTERS
RIYADH: Oil prices were little changed on Friday but were set for a weekly rise amid optimism that economic stimulus efforts will prompt a recovery in China, but a stronger dollar capped gains, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures fell 2 cents to $73.24 a barrel by 08:35 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.61, down 1 cent, from Thursday’s close. However, on a weekly basis, Brent was up 0.4 percent and WTI rose 0.2 percent.
The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year.
China, the world’s biggest oil importer, revised upwards its 2023 gross domestic product estimate by 2.7 percent, but also said the change would have little impact on growth this year.
Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported this week citing sources, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
However, a stronger US dollar weighed on oil prices and capped gains. The greenback has risen about 7 percent this quarter and remained pinned at a near two-year peak against major peers after the Federal Reserve signaled slower rate cuts in 2025.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The latest weekly report on US inventories from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed crude stocks fell last week by 3.2 million barrels, market sources said on Tuesday. API/S
Traders will be waiting to see if the official inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration confirms the decline. The EIA data is due at 9 p.m. Saudi time on Friday, later than normal because of the Christmas holiday.
Analysts in a Reuters poll expect crude inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20, while gasoline and distillate inventories are seen falling by 1.1 million barrels and 0.3 million barrels respectively.
ROSHN launches first residential community in Makkah
Updated 26 December 2024
MOHAMMED AL-KINANI
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s leading property developer, ROSHN, has officially launched its first residential community in Makkah, marking a significant milestone in the company’s efforts to improve the city’s living standards while supporting the national development goals outlined in Vision 2030.
The launch event for the Al-Manar Community project, which is ROSHN’s inaugural residential development in Makkah, took place under the patronage of Makkah Gov. Prince Khaled Al-Faisal. The groundbreaking ceremony was attended by a host of prominent figures, including Makkah Mayor Musaed bin Abdulaziz Al-Dawood, Royal Commission for Makkah and Holy Sites CEO Saleh bin Ibrahim Al-Rasheed, Real Estate General Authority CEO Abdullah Al-Hammad, and ROSHN’s acting CEO Khaled Jawhar. The event also saw participation from officials across both the public and private sectors.
Strategically positioned, the Al-Manar community is just a 20-minute drive from the Grand Mosque, less than an hour from King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, and only two minutes from Makkah’s western gateway. The development’s design thoughtfully integrates the region’s rich cultural and architectural heritage, blending modernity with tradition.
The Saudi government, under Vision 2030, has set ambitious targets to boost homeownership among citizens, aiming for 70 percent by the end of the decade.
ROSHN is playing a pivotal role in achieving this goal by developing large-scale residential projects that offer high-quality and affordable housing options for Saudi citizens. These initiatives are in line with the government’s strategy to expand the housing sector, elevate living standards, and provide homes for the country’s growing population.
At the ceremony, attendees were given a tour of model villas and previewed the diverse residential designs available within the community. The Al-Manar development will feature a variety of villas alongside essential amenities such as schools, mosques, shopping centers, healthcare facilities, open spaces, and recreational areas.
Khaled Jawhar, acting CEO of ROSHN, explained that the project spans over 21 million sq. meters and will provide more than 33,000 housing units. Additionally, it will offer more than 150 facilities designed to meet the needs of residents and support community well-being.
Saleh bin Ibrahim Al-Rasheed, CEO of the Royal Commission for Makkah and Holy Sites, emphasized the significance of the Al-Manar community as the first fully integrated ROSHN development in Makkah.
“Located at the city’s western gateway, within the Haram boundaries, this project reflects our commitment to facilitating impactful developments that drive long-term growth and sustainability,” Al-Rasheed said.
