Coronavirus crisis gives oil exporters a crash course in energy transition

The historic deal by OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia but brokered by the US, had resulted on the largest supply cut in the history of the oil industry. But the worst was yet to come as market turmoil reached fever pitch, resulting in “Black Monday” in April. (AFP/File Photo)
Short Url
Updated 19 September 2020
Follow

Coronavirus crisis gives oil exporters a crash course in energy transition

  • Daniel Yergin’s new book shows how oil is adjusting to a world radically altered by the coronavirus pandemic
  • He says oil producers face many different challenges as they navigate the great energy transition

The historic deal by OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia but brokered by the US, had resulted on the largest supply cut in the history of the oil industry. But the worst was yet to come as market turmoil reached fever pitch, resulting in “Black Monday” in April, when oil drillers paid consumers to take barrels away. Pulitzer prize-winning author Daniel Yergin, in the exclusive final excerpt from his latest book “The New Map — Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations,” takes up the story — and warns of the challenges ahead for oil producers in the great energy transition.

The agreement had signaled a new international order for petroleum, one shaped not by OPEC and non-OPEC, but by the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. In the future, markets would shift; it would be a different planet again after the coronavirus; politics and prices and personalities would change over the months and years ahead. But the sheer scale of their resources, and the dramatically changed position of the US, guaranteed that these three countries, one way or the other, would have dominant roles in shaping the new oil order.

The deal was indeed historic, but it turned out to be not enough, not when measured against the ever-deepening collapse in demand — 27 million barrels down in April, more than a quarter of total world demand. After the deal, prices slid into the high teens and, in some places where oil could not be stored or transported, a lot lower. The world was now running out of storage.

Owing to an anomaly in the way the futures market worked, the price dropped to one cent and then, on April 20 — Black Monday — went “negative.” That meant that a financial investor selling a futures contract, who would be obligated to take physical delivery of oil for which they had no storage place, had on that day to actually pay a buyer to take the oil. That, too, was historic — the lowest price ever recorded for a barrel of oil — minus $37.63.

But that was not a price in the oil field, but a one-time fluke in financial markets, an aberration in a futures contract.

Meanwhile, the global calamity continued. On May 1, coronavirus cases in the world exceeded 3.2 million, with more than 1 million in the US, where more than 25 million people had lost their jobs over five weeks.

The IMF, which at the beginning of the year had predicted solid global growth of 3.4 percent, announced that the world had already entered the worst recession since the Great Depression. 

May 1 was also the day that the mega-oil deal, the OPEC+ agreement, went into effect; and Saudi Arabia and Russia and the other producers began to sharply reduce production. At the same time, the brute force of economics was forcing companies to curtail output or shut down wells altogether.




May 1 was the day that the mega-oil deal, the OPEC+ agreement, went into effect; with Saudi Arabia and Russia and the other producers sharply reducing their production. (Shutterstock)

Why sell oil for less than it cost to produce — assuming you could find a buyer or storage — when you could, in effect, store it in the ground — allow the oil to “shelter in place” — and wait for prices to recover?

The biggest market-driven curtailments by far were in the US, followed by Canada. In May the global combination of OPEC+ cuts and market curtailments took 13 million barrels per day of crude oil off the world market.

The planned spending by the larger US oil upstream companies was slashed in half, meaning many fewer wells would be drilled in the months to follow, ensuring that US production would slide significantly over the next year. The US would certainly remain one of the Big Three, but not as big. 

By the beginning of June, the number of coronavirus cases worldwide was over 6 million, more than double what it had been a month earlier. Yet the economic darkness was beginning to lift.

*****

READ PART 1: How the coronavirus crisis forced the largest oil supply cut in history

*****

China, the first country to lock down, was the first to unlock, and it was mostly back in business. European countries were at different levels of increased activity, and the US was opening up in stages, albeit with considerable variation among states. With economies coming back, oil demand was increasing.

Consumption in China was almost back to pre-crisis levels, and the streets in Beijing and Shanghai and Chongqing were once again gridlocked as people who had the option chose to drive rather than take public transportation.

Gasoline consumption in the US, which had fallen by half at the beginning of April, was now growing again. All this pulled oil prices back up higher — to levels that not so long ago would have been considered a low-price scenario, but now a relief. 

With prices rising, would OPEC+ stay together and the cut-backs hold? Key would be the restored relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia. But also of importance would be how quickly.

US producers, who had shut down their wells, would turn around and open them again, which could renew the oversupply and deliver another blow to prices, as could low economic growth or a persisting recession — or a resurgent virus. 




A gas station attendant refills a car at a station in the Saudi capital Riyadh on May 11, 2020. (AFP/File Photo)

And there were many perspectives on what lay ahead. Looking beyond the crisis, some thought that market cycles were over and that, even with economic recovery, oil prices would be low for a long time.

Others thought otherwise — more likely that the slashing of investment in new production would lead, with renewed economic growth, to a tightening in the balance between supply and demand that would send prices higher.

And some thought entirely differently. They sought a “green recovery:” Governments taking advantage of the crisis to reorient their energy mix away from oil and gas and hasten what they saw as the coming energy transition.

What do the changing world energy markets mean for oil-exporting countries? Markets will go in cycles.

They always have, and oil exporters will face volatility, although what happened in 2020 was never anticipated. They may well have to live with periods of lower revenues, which will mean austerity and lower economic growth, with greater risk of turmoil and political instability.

This emphasizes the need for these countries to address their over-reliance on oil.

The overweening scale of the domestic oil business crowds out entrepreneurship and other sectors in many oil-exporting countries; it can promote rent-seeking and corruption. It also overvalues the exchange rate, hurting non-oil businesses.

In the future, even with a rebound in prices, countries will need to manage oil revenues more prudently, with an eye on the longer term. That means more restrained budgeting and building up a sovereign wealth fund, which can invest outside the country and develop non-oil streams of revenues, helping to diversify the economy and hedge against lower oil and gas prices. 

Petroleum-exporting countries will also find themselves competing with other exporting countries for new investment by companies that will be cost-conscious, selective and focused on “capital discipline.” That will push countries to shape scale and regulatory regimes that are competitive, attractive, stable, predictable and transparent.

Experience proves how hard it is to diversify away from over-dependence. It requires a wide range of changes — in laws and regulations for small-and medium-sized companies, in the educational system, in access to investment capital, in labor markets, in the society’s values and culture.

These are not changes that can be accomplished in a short time. In the meantime, the flow of oil revenues creates a powerful countercurrent that favors the status quo.

-----------------------

Extracted from “The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations” by Daniel Yergin (Allen Lane). Copyright Daniel Yergin 2020.


Saudi Arabia raises $1.34bn through July sukuk issuance

Updated 15 July 2025
Follow

Saudi Arabia raises $1.34bn through July sukuk issuance

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center raised SR5.02 billion ($1.34 billion) through its riyal-denominated sukuk issuance for July, marking a sharp 113.6 percent increase compared to the previous month.

In June, the Kingdom issued sukuk worth SR2.35 billion, while May and April saw issuances of SR4.08 billion and SR3.71 billion, respectively.

Sukuk are Shariah-compliant financial instruments that offer investors partial ownership in an issuer’s underlying assets, making them a popular alternative to conventional bonds.

According to NDMC, the July issuance was divided into four tranches. The first tranche, valued at SR776 million, will mature in 2029. The second, worth SR1.34 billion, is set to mature in 2032, followed by a third tranche of SR823 million due in 2036. The largest tranche, totaling SR2.08 billion, will mature in 2039.

Saudi Arabia’s debt market has witnessed robust growth in recent years, attracting strong investor interest in fixed-income instruments amid a global environment of rising interest rates.

In April, Kuwait Financial Center, also known as Markaz, reported that Saudi Arabia led the Gulf Cooperation Council in primary debt issuances during the first quarter of the year. The Kingdom raised $31.01 billion from 41 offerings, accounting for over 60 percent of total issuances across the region.

Credit rating agency S&P Global noted in April that Saudi Arabia’s expanding non-oil sector and steady sukuk issuance volumes are likely to support the growth of the global Islamic finance industry.

The agency forecasts global sukuk issuance to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion in 2025, with foreign currency-denominated offerings contributing up to $80 billion, assuming market conditions remain stable.

Echoing that outlook, a report by Kamco Invest published in December said Saudi Arabia is expected to account for the largest share of bond maturities in the GCC between 2025 and 2029, with $168 billion set to mature during the period.

Earlier this month, S&P Global reiterated its positive view, stating that the global sukuk market is on track to maintain its momentum in 2025, with foreign currency-denominated issuances projected to reach between $70 billion and $80 billion.


Saudi Arabia tops MENA VC rankings with $860m in H1: MAGNiTT 

Updated 15 July 2025
Follow

Saudi Arabia tops MENA VC rankings with $860m in H1: MAGNiTT 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia led venture capital activity in the Middle East and North Africa in early 2025, raising $860 million — a 116 percent annual jump — backed by sovereign support and foreign interest. 

In its latest report, regional venture platform MAGNiTT revealed that the Kingdom witnessed 114 deals in the first half of the year, marking a significant 31 percent rise compared to the same period in 2024. 

This comes on the back of a strong 2024 performance, when Saudi Arabia retained its position as the most funded MENA country for VC for the second consecutive year. Startups raised $750 million, with a 34 percent increase in deal funding rounds below $100 million – dubbed MEGA deals – reflecting growing early- and mid-stage capital formation, according to a report released earlier this year by MAGNiTT and SVC. 

In its latest report for the first half, MAGNiTT stated: “This growth was supported by continued sovereign capital activity, event-driven momentum from LEAP, and early-stage programs backed by new funds and accelerators.” 

Saudi Arabia ranked second among emerging venture markets in total VC funding, trailing only Singapore, which raised $1.28 billion across 120 deals in the first half. 

However, Singapore’s funding declined 37 percent year on year, while the number of deals dropped 31 percent. 

“The drop (in Singapore) signals a continued cooldown in late-stage deployment and foreign investor activity amid macro headwinds,” the report stated. 

Among emerging markets, Saudi Arabia was followed by the UAE, which raised $447 million in funding in the first six months of the year, a rise of 84 percent year on year. 

The UAE also matched Saudi Arabia in deal count, recording 114 deals, up 10 percent compared to the same period last year. This was driven by increased international participation, which reached its highest level in the Emirates since the first half of 2020. 

Elsewhere, Turkiye raised $226 million, followed by Vietnam at $216 million, Egypt at $185 million, and South Africa at $183 million. Nigeria raised $158 million, while Indonesia and Kenya secured $102 million and $71 million, respectively. 

The report further noted that fintech was the leading sector across all three EVM regions in the first half, accounting for 45 percent of VC funding in Southeast Asia, 38 percent in the Middle East, and 45 percent in Africa. 

“The bulk of this activity was concentrated in payment solutions and lending platforms, which emerged as the dominant fintech subsectors,” added the report. 

Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions activity across emerging venture markets saw 55 transactions in the first half, marking a 31 percent increase compared to the same period last year. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,095

Updated 15 July 2025
Follow

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,095

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Tuesday, as it shed 118.18 points, or 1.05 percent, to close at 11,095.41. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.52 billion ($1.21 billion), with 46 of the listed stocks advancing and 204 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also shed 55.43 points to 27,301.46.

The MSCI Tadawul Index declined by 1.09 percent to close at 1,421.31. 

The best-performing stock on the main market was SHL Finance Co. The firm’s share price increased by 5.21 percent to SR22.62. 

The share price of SICO Saudi REIT Fund rose by 5.1 percent to SR4.33. 

Tourism Enterprise Co. also saw its stock price climb by 3.26 percent to SR0.95. 

Conversely, the share price of Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund declined by 4.03 percent to SR9.05. 

On the announcements front, Saudi Co. for Hardware, also known as SACO, said that it signed an agreement valued at SR140.43 million to sell its warehouse in Al-Mashael district in Riyadh. 

In a Tadawul statement, SACO said that the proceeds from the sale will be used to repay existing bank loans and help support its future expansion plans.

The firm further said that the 42,937-sq.-meter warehouse was sold to 6th Iradat Al Imdad Co., a limited liability company. 

The firm added that there are no related parties involved in the deal. 

The share price of SACO dropped by 1.02 percent to SR29.14. 

The shareholders of Saudi Lime Industries Co. approved a recommendation to increase its capital by 5 percent through a one-for-20 bonus share distribution, by capitalizing SR11 million from the firm’s retained earnings account.

The stock price of Saudi Lime Industries Co., listed on the parallel market, advanced by 4.77 percent to SR12.97. 


Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, Shareek sign deal to accelerate AI, cloud innovation

Updated 15 July 2025
Follow

Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, Shareek sign deal to accelerate AI, cloud innovation

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s private sector is set to gain a boost in AI-driven innovation and data capabilities through a new agreement aimed at accelerating digital transformation across key industries. 

The new deal, signed between the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority and the Private Sector Partnership Reinforcement Program, known as Shareek, aims to conduct comprehensive market studies and coordinate with relevant authorities, according to an official statement. 

The memorandum of understanding also includes a mandate to develop AI-aligned business models and provide technical consultation services to private sector entities participating in the Shareek program. 

This comes as the Gulf’s largest economy positions itself as a global AI hub under its Vision 2030 strategy, which targets $135.2 billion in economic value from the technology by the end of the decade. 

The same roadmap aims to raise the private sector’s contribution to gross domestic product to 65 percent by 2030, signaling a shift toward tech-led diversification away from oil dependency. 

In a post on X, SDAIA stated that the MoU also seeks to “develop investment opportunities in cooperation with relevant authorities” and to “develop business models for both parties, in accordance with established procedures.” 

It added that the agreement will also focus on “identifying and prioritizing investment opportunities and providing specialized technical consultations,” as well as “sharing investment opportunities with the sector and relevant authorities to join the Private Sector Partnership Reinforcement Program – Shareek.”

Launched in 2021, Shareek is a flagship public-private partnership program aiming to unlock SR5 trillion ($1.33 trillion) in investments by 2030. It supports large Saudi companies in accelerating growth and driving economic development. Its collaboration with SDAIA highlights its role in advancing large-scale digital transformation.

The development comes as the Kingdom expands its global tech alliances, with SDAIA signing an MoU with Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD, on the sidelines of the Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh in May to strengthen the AI ecosystem. 

The agreement aims to develop specialized AI data centers powered by AMD technologies, supporting the Kingdom’s efforts to build a robust digital infrastructure.

These developments come as Saudi Arabia’s global AI standing continues to rise, with the Kingdom ranking third worldwide in the OECD AI Policy Observatory in December, behind only the US and the UK.


Foreign investors buy $4.2bn GCC stocks in Q2, up 50%: Kamco Invest

Updated 15 July 2025
Follow

Foreign investors buy $4.2bn GCC stocks in Q2, up 50%: Kamco Invest

RIYADH: Foreign investors sharply increased their exposure to Gulf stock markets in the second quarter of 2025, with net inflows surging 50 percent compared to the previous three months to reach $4.2 billion.

According to the latest analysis done by Kamco Invest, a Kuwait-based non-banking firm, this momentum extended the streak of net foreign inflows into Gulf Cooperation Council equities to six consecutive quarters, with total net purchases in the first half of 2025 rising 39.8 percent year on year to $7 billion. 

The surge comes as GCC equity markets continue to attract global capital, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and ongoing economic reforms. In the first quarter alone, 11 initial public offerings raised $1.6 billion — up 33 percent from a year earlier — driven largely by Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 69 percent of total proceeds, according to a PwC Middle East analysis published in May. 

In its GCC Trading Activity Quarterly Report, Kamco said: “Foreign investors, including institutional and retail investors, were net buyers on GCC stock markets during Q2 2025 with net buying at $4.2 billion as compared to $2.8 billion in net buying during Q1 2025.”

Saudi Arabia led the region with $1.4 billion in net foreign buying, a major jump from $252.3 million in the previous quarter, highlighting growing investor confidence in the Kingdom’s market liberalization efforts. 

The increased appetite of foreign buyers in the Saudi exchange underscores the progress of the country’s economic diversification efforts, as the Kingdom continues to strengthen its capital market and reduce its reliance on crude revenues. 

In May, Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority revealed in its annual report that net foreign investments in the Kingdom’s stock market rose to SR218 billion ($58.1 billion) in 2024, marking a 10.1 percent increase compared to the previous year. 

The Kamco report noted that the UAE saw $1.33 billion in net inflows into the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange in the second quarter, while Kuwait saw $696.5 million, Dubai $462 million, and Qatar $333.6 million. 

In contrast, Oman and Bahrain recorded net foreign outflows of $29.6 million and $27.9 million, respectively. 

“The 1H 2025 data of trading activity on GCC exchanges indicated that net buying at the aggregate level, although the trend differed at the country level due to net sales during Q1 2025 for some of the exchanges,” said Kamco Invest. 

In terms of first-half performance, the UAE attracted the highest foreign inflows at $4.6 billion, followed by Saudi Arabia with $1.6 billion and Kuwait at $1.4 billion. 

In a landmark regulatory shift, Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority recently announced that citizens and residents of GCC countries will be allowed to invest directly in Tadawul, the Kingdom’s main stock exchange. 

This move is part of a broader effort to modernize Saudi Arabia’s capital markets and enhance foreign investor participation. It aligns with the Kingdom’s ambitious Vision 2030 strategy, which aims to diversify the economy, boost market liquidity, and strengthen its financial standing in the Gulf region. 

In its latest report, Kamco noted that exchanges in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar witnessed consistent foreign buying throughout the three months of the second quarter. 

In contrast, Saudi Arabia saw net foreign selling in April, followed by net buying in the subsequent two months. 

Oman was the only exchange in the GCC region to record net foreign selling in each of the three months of the quarter. 

“Some of the key factors that affected the flow of foreign money in the region included regional market trends, initial public offerings, geopolitical issues, economic health of the individual countries and crude oil prices,” added Kamco. 

Market performance 

GCC equity markets delivered a mixed performance in the second quarter, with five of the seven regional exchanges posting gains, reinforcing a broadly optimistic investor outlook. 

Aggregate share trading volume across the region reached 94.73 billion shares in the quarter, up 9.1 percent from the first quarter. Qatar led the increase with 12.5 billion shares traded — up 39.4 percent — followed by Dubai with 16.3 billion shares, a 21 percent increase. 

In contrast, trading volumes in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain declined by 5 percent and 61.5 percent, respectively, during the same period. 

The total value of shares traded in the second quarter reached $151.8 billion, representing a marginal decline of 3.75 percent compared to the first quarter. 

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain recorded declines in trading value, while the rest of the GCC markets saw gains during the period. 

The analysis revealed that Abu Dhabi posted the largest increase in value traded, reaching $22.5 billion in the second quarter, up from $20.3 billion in the first three months of the year. 

Trading activity on Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange stood at $89 billion in the second quarter, down from $95.7 billion in the previous quarter. 

Top 10 GCC stocks 

The Kamco analysis showed that six Saudi listed stocks ranked among the top 10 most traded GCC equities by trading value in the second quarter of 2025. 

The combined trading value of the top 10 stocks across the region reached $34.7 billion, accounting for 36.6 percent of the total value traded during the quarter. 

Al-Rajhi Bank led the list with $5.8 billion in trading value, followed by energy giant Saudi Aramco at $5.1 billion, International Holdings Co. at $4 billion, ADNOC Gas at $3.4 billion, and stc at $3.1 billion. 

Saudi National Bank saw trading activity of $3 billion, followed by Emaar Properties at $2.9 billion and Alinma Bank at $2.8 billion. 

Kuwait Finance House recorded $2.5 billion in trades, while Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co., also known as Masar, saw $2.1 billion.