Bangladesh economy shows early signs of pandemic recovery
In August, exports rose 4.3 percent from a year earlier, to $2.96 billion, mostly driven by apparel shipments, according to the government’s Export Promotion Bureau
Updated 19 September 2020
AP
DHAKA: A rebound in garment orders after demand crashed during spring shutdowns is helping to revive the Bangladesh economy.
Apparel makers, the country’s main export industry, say they are looking ahead to Christmas orders from the US and other major markets.
Remittances from Bangladeshi workers employed overseas have also recovered, helping to relieve pressures from a pandemic quasi-shutdown during the spring.
The Asian Development Bank reported this week that the economic comeback was encouraging. It is forecasting the economy will grow at a robust 6.8 percent annual pace in the fiscal year that ends in June if current conditions persist.
That’s a much brighter outlook than in April-May, when global clothing brands suspended or canceled orders worth more than $3 billion, affecting about 4 million workers and thousands of factories.
“At the moment we can say that the ready-made garment industry has been able to regain its growth trajectory upward compared to March-May,” said Rubana Huq, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, or BGMEA.
“As economies in the West were turning around we were successfully able to get the buyers back to the negotiating table, which is why 80 percent to 90 percent of the $3.18 billion in canceled orders have been reinstated,” she said.
Bangladesh earns about $35 billion annually from garment exports, mainly to the US and Europe. The industry is the world’s second largest after China’s. Bangladesh’s exports rose 0.6 percent to $3.9 billion in July,
FASTFACT
Bangladesh’s exports rose 0.6 percent to $3.9 billion in July, after plummeting 83 percent to $520 million in April.
after plummeting 83 percent to $520 million in April. Imports, which are reported on a quarterly basis, began recovering earlier, rising 36 percent in May-June.
In August, exports rose 4.3 percent from a year earlier, to $2.96 billion, mostly driven by apparel shipments, according to the government’s Export Promotion Bureau. Garment shipments totaled $5.7 billion in July and August.
“The garment sector is making a good comeback. Our agriculture is doing well. Remittances are coming. These all are good signs for the economy,” said Ahsan H. Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute, a think tank in Dhaka.
“The pace of the recovery is clearly visible. But challenges have been there too. The pace of the recovery will depend on how the pandemic behaves in the West over the next few months,” Mansur said. That’s the inestimable question facing everyone.
As of Thursday, Bangladesh had reported more than 342,000 confirmed coronavirus infections and 4,823 deaths. The country confirmed its first positive case on March 8.
Some experts say that the actual number of infections is higher than the official count. The garment industry says few workers in its factories have fallen ill thanks to precautions such as employing fewer people on the production lines and imposing safety guidelines. The government imposed a nationwide lockdown on March 26, and the garments sector was closed for nearly three months, reopening only gradually.
The country director for the ADB, Manmohan Parkash, said that the government has managed the crisis well, “with appropriate economic stimulus and social protection measures.”
“We are encouraged by the increase in exports and remittances, and hope the recovery will be sustained, which will help in achieving the projected growth rate,” Parkash said.
RIYADH: Recession risks and the possibility of higher-than-expected OPEC+ supply led Goldman Sachs to revise its annual average price forecasts again for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude in 2026.
The Wall Street brokerage lowered its 2026 average price forecast for Brent by $4 to $58 per barrel, and for WTI to $55, Reuters reported, citing a note dated April 6.
This revision follows a previous adjustment, where the bank had decreased its 2026 forecast for Brent to $62 and WTI to $59. Goldman Sachs also cautioned that these new projections could be further modified downward.
This correlates with the firm’s decision to raise the likelihood of a US recession to 45 percent within the next 12 months, up from a previous estimate of 35 percent.
The adjustment reflects growing concerns over a trade war fueled by extensive tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
In the newly released note, Goldman Sachs said: “Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses.”
Other investment banks have also revised their forecasts in response to intensifying trade tensions.
Goldman Sachs cited a significant tightening of financial conditions and heightened policy uncertainty, which are expected to further reduce capital spending beyond their earlier projections.
This also aligns with last week’s adjustments by several investment banks to their recession risk forecasts, including J.P. Morgan, which estimated a 60 percent chance of both a US and global recession.
Goldman Sachs now expects oil demand to grow by 300,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 600,000 bpd, and to surge by 400,000 bpd in 2026.
The brokerage firm credited the reduction in demand growth to the adverse impact of a declining gross domestic product, which more than offsets the support provided by a weaker dollar and lower oil prices.
Oil prices dropped on April 7, extending last week’s losses, as rising trade tensions between the US and China fueled concerns of a recession that could weaken demand for crude.
On April 4, China retaliated against the US tariffs imposed by Trump, implementing a series of countermeasures, including a 34 percent surcharge on all US goods and restrictions on certain rare-earth exports. Brent crude was priced at approximately $63.87 per barrel, while WTI stood at $60.38.
“While the uncertainty around compliance and OPEC8+ production is very large, we still assume that the four months of OPEC8+ crude increases will total around 0.7-0.8 mb/d,” the bank added in its note.
Saudi non-oil growth holds firm in March with PMI at 58: S&P Global
Updated 07 April 2025
Nirmal Narayanan
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector maintained its resilience in March, with the Kingdom’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 58.1, the highest among its Middle Eastern peers.
According to the latest Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report compiled by S&P Global, non-oil private firms in the Kingdom witnessed a marked increase in new order volumes, although the growth rate softened further from the near 14-year record seen in January.
The March figure represented a slight decline from the 58.4 seen in February, but it was still higher than UAE’s PMI rating of 54, Kuwait’s at 52.3 and Qatar’s at 52.
Any PMI reading above 50 signifies an expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
The sustained momentum reflects the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy to reduce reliance on oil by accelerating growth in tourism, manufacturing, logistics, and financial services.
Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, described the Saudi non-oil private sector as demonstrating “significant resilience and growth,” adding: “This reading reflects sustained positive momentum in business conditions, highlighting the sector’s robust economic health and its vital role in the ongoing diversification efforts of the Kingdom as envisaged by Vision 2030.”
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil businesses continued to increase their employment at an elevated pace in March, driven by an upturn in demand.
The report further said that staffing growth was little changed from February’s 16-month high, as firms widely commented on efforts to build their sales teams and overall capacity.
Survey data also indicated that job growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector during the first three months of this year was the fastest since the third quarter of 2012.
“Rising employment rates are a direct benefit of businesses scaling up operations to meet demand. By providing more job opportunities, Saudi Arabia aims to nurture a skilled and ambitious workforce, reducing the unemployment rate to 7 percent for Saudi nationals,” said Al-Ghaith.
Speaking at the World Investment Conference in Riyadh last November, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim said non-oil activities now account for 52 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product. He added that the non-oil economy has grown by 20 percent since the launch of Vision 2030.
The latest PMI report added that greater marketing efforts, lower selling prices, and a broader improvement in economic conditions played a crucial role in driving sales growth among non-oil firms in Saudi Arabia in March.
New orders from foreign markets also rose in March, although the rate of expansion slowed.
Highlighting the affinity of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil products in international markets, a report by the General Authority for Statistics revealed that the Kingdom’s non-energy exports surged by 10.7 percent in January to reach SR26.48 billion ($7.06 billion).
According to the latest S&P Global report, increased workforces and stronger new businesses supported a robust upturn in non-oil private sector activity during March.
Non-oil firms in the Kingdom also engaged in additional stockpiling as they anticipate a sustained uplift in sales.
Companies that took part in the survey revealed that purchasing activity rose sharply in March, leading to another steep increase in total inventories.
“The improvement in business conditions supports efforts to attract investment, increase the competitiveness of the Saudi economy, and enhance local business growth,” said Al-Ghaith.
He added: “This initiative is further supported by governmental enhancements in regulatory frameworks and infrastructure investments which pave the way for greater private and foreign investments.”
Attracting international investments is one of the crucial goals outlined in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, with the Kingdom aiming to attract $100 billion a year in foreign direct investment by the end of this decade.
The latest S&P Global report further said that suppliers’ delivery times improved in March, with several panellists noting that strong vendor relationships had facilitated efficiency gains.
However, some reports of supply disruption and administrative delays led to a much softer overall upturn in performance compared to February. This softening also hindered efforts to clear outstanding work, contributing to a renewed and sharp rise in total backlogs.
In terms of pricing, the latest survey revealed that input cost pressures witnessed a marked easing in March.
The report added that the rate of inflation dropped to its lowest level in just over four years, as firms saw a much weaker increase in purchase prices. Consequently, non-oil companies reduced their selling prices for the first time in six months.
“Sustaining and nurturing these positive trends, Saudi Arabia is laying the groundwork for a multifaceted and thriving economy that meets the aspirations of its people and the strategic goals of the nation,” said Al-Ghaith.
“With each uptick in the PMI and every incremental GDP growth, the Kingdom moves closer to realizing its ambitions of a diversified, sustainable economic future,” he concluded.
Global markets fall as Trump’s tariffs roil world trade
Pakistan Stock Exchange falls rapidly, suspending trading for an hour after a 5% drop in KSE-100 index
Middle East stock markets tumble as they struggled with dual hit of new US tariffs, oil prices decline
Updated 07 April 2025
AP
Global markets plunged Monday following last week’s two-day meltdown on Wall Street, and President Donald Trump said he won’t back down on his sweeping new tariffs, which have roiled global trade.
Countries are scrambling to figure out how to respond to the tariffs, with China and others retaliating quickly.
Trump’s tariff blitz fulfilled a key campaign promise as he acted without Congress to redraw the rules of the international trading system. It was a move decades in the making for Trump, who has long denounced foreign trade deals as unfair to the US
The higher rates are set to be collected beginning Wednesday, ushering in a new era of economic uncertainty with no clear end in sight.
Here’s the latest:
Chinese officials meet business representatives from Tesla and other US companies.
Chinese government officials met business representatives from Tesla, GE Healthcare and other US companies on Sunday. It called on them to issue “reasonable” statements and take “concrete actions” on addressing the issue of tariffs.
“The United States in recent days has used all sorts of excuses to announce indiscriminate tariffs on all trading partners, including China, severely harming the rules-based multilateral trade system,” said Ling Ji, a vice minister of commerce, at the meeting with 20 US companies.
“China’s countermeasures are not only a way to protect the rights and interests of companies, including American ones, but are also to urge the US to return to the right path of the multilateral trading system,” Ling added.
A man looks at a screen showing Chinese stock market movements as he uses his mobile phone in Beijing on April 7, 2025. (AFP)
Ling also promised that China would remain open to foreign investment, according to a readout of the meeting from the Ministry of Commerce.
Malaysia wants Southeast Asia to present a united response to tariffs
Malaysia’s Trade Minister Zafrul Abdul Aziz said his country wants to forge a united response from Southeast Asia to the sweeping US tariffs.
Malaysia, which is the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this year, will lead the regional bloc’s special Economic Ministers’ Meeting on April 10 in Kuala Lumpur to discuss the broader implication of the tariff measures on regional trade and investment, Zafrul told a news conference on Monday.
“We are looking at the investment flow, macroeconomic stability and ASEAN’s coordinated response to this tariff issue,” Zafrul said.
ASEAN leaders will also meet to discuss member states’ strategies and to mitigate potential disruptions to regional supply chain networks.
Pakistan plans to send a government delegation to Washington this month to discuss how to avoid the 29% tariffs imposed by the US on imports from Pakistan, officials said Monday.
The development came two days after Pakistan’s prime minister asked its finance minister to send him recommendations for resolving the issue. The US imports around $5 billion worth of textiles and other products from Pakistan, which heavily relies on loans from the International Monetary Fund and others.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange fell rapidly on Monday. The exchange suspended trading for an hour after a 5% drop in its main KSE-30 index.
Mideast markets follow oil prices lower
Middle East stock markets tumbled as they struggled with the dual hit of the new US tariffs and a sharp decline in oil prices, squeezing energy-producing nations that rely on those sales to power their economies and government spending.
Benchmark Brent crude is down by nearly 15% over the last five days of trading, with a barrel of oil costing just over $63. That’s down nearly 30% from a year ago, when a barrel cost over $90.
That cost per barrel is far lower than the estimated break-even price for producers. That’s coupled with the new tariffs, which saw the Gulf Cooperation Council states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hit with 10% tariffs. Other Mideast nations face higher tariffs, like Iraq at 39% and Syria at 41%.
The Dubai Financial Market exchange fell 5% as it opened for the week. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange fell 4%.
Markets that opened Sunday saw losses as well. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock exchange fell over 6% in trading. The giant of the exchange, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco, fell over 5% on its own, wiping away billions in market capitalization for the world’s sixth-most-valuable company.
Beijing struck a note of confidence on Monday even as markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai tumbled.
“The sky won’t fall. Faced with the indiscriminate punches of US taxes, we know what we are doing and we have tools at our disposal,” wrote The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official mouthpiece.
China announced a slew of countermeasures on Friday evening aimed at Trump’s tariffs, including its own 34% tariffs on all goods from the US set to go in effect on Wednesday.
Australian dollar drops to levels last seen early in pandemic
The Australian dollar fell below 60 US cents on Monday for the first time since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A photo illustration shows a mobile phone displaying a graph of the Australian stock market figures at the close of trading, in Sydney on April 7, 2025. (AFP)
The drop reflected concerns over the Chinese economy and market expectations for four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
“What our modeling shows is that we expect there to be big hits to American growth and Chinese growth and a spike in American inflation as well,” Chalmers said.
“We expect more manageable impacts on the Australian economy, but we still do expect Australian GDP to take a hit and we expect there to be an impact on prices here as well,” he added.
The Trump administration assigned Australia the minimum baseline 10% tariff on imports in the United States. The US has enjoyed a trade surplus with Australia for decades.
Indian stocks fell sharply on Monday, seeing their biggest single-day drop in percentage terms since March 2020 amid the pandemic.
The benchmark BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index both dropped about 5% after trading opened but then recovered slightly. Both were later trading down about 4 percent.
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the US, digging in on his plans to implement the taxes that have sent financial markets reeling, raised fears of a recession and upended the global trading system.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said he didn’t want global markets to fall, but also that he wasn’t concerned about the massive sell-off either, adding, “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
His comments came as global financial markets appeared on track to continue sharp declines once trading resumes Monday, and after Trump’s aides sought to soothe market concerns by saying more than 50 nations had reached out about launching negotiations to lift the tariffs.
“I spoke to a lot of leaders, European, Asian, from all over the world,” Trump said. “They’re dying to make a deal. And I said, we’re not going to have deficits with your country. We’re not going to do that, because to me a deficit is a loss. We’re going to have surpluses or at worst, going to be breaking even.”
Asian markets plunged on Monday following last week’s two-day meltdown on Wall Street, and US President Donald Trump said he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the US
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index lost nearly 8% shortly after the market opened on Monday. By midday, it was down 6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 9.4%, while the Shanghai Composite index was down 6.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 4.1%
US futures also signaled further weakness.
Market observers expect investors will face more wild swings in the days and weeks to come, with a short-term resolution to the trade war appearing unlikely.
Oil Updates — crude tumbles further as US-China trade tensions fuel recession fears
Updated 07 April 2025
Reuters
LONDON : Oil prices extended last week’s losses on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate falling more than 4 percent, as escalating trade tensions between the US and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude.
Brent futures declined $2.54, or 3.9 percent, to $63.04 a barrel at 10:45 a.m. Saudi time, while US WTI crude futures lost $2.5, or 4.03 percent, to $59.49. Both benchmarks dropped their lowest since April 2021.
Oil plunged 7 percent on Friday as China ramped up tariffs on US goods, escalating a trade war that has led investors to price in a higher probability of recession. Last week, Brent lost 10.9 percent, while WTI dropped 10.6 percent.
“It’s hard to see a floor for crude unless the panic in the markets subsides and it’s hard to see that happening unless Trump says something to arrest snowballing fears over a global trade war and recession,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Responding to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China said on Friday it would impose additional levies of 34 percent on American goods, confirming investor fears that a full-blown global trade war is underway.
Imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, but the policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes, weighing on oil prices.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that Trump’s new tariffs are “larger than expected,” and the economic fallout, including higher inflation and slower growth, likely will be as well.
Adding to the price changes, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies decided to advance plans for output increases. The group now aims to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.
“This potential influx of supply, reversing cuts maintained over the past two years, represents a major shift in market dynamics and acts as a significant headwind for prices,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.
Over the weekend, top OPEC+ ministers stressed the need for full compliance with oil output targets and called for overproducers to submit plans by April 15 to compensate for pumping too much.
On the geopolitical front, Iran on Sunday rejected US demands that it hold direct nuclear talks or face strikes. Russia claimed to have captured Basivka in Ukraine’s Sumy region and said its forces were attacking multiple nearby settlements.
Riyadh Air receives Air Operator Certificate, set to launch flights in 2025
Updated 06 April 2025
Reem Walid
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Air has received approval from the General Authority of Civil Aviation to commence its flight operations, according to a statement released on Sunday.
The airline, owned by the Public Investment Fund, was granted the Air Operator Certificate after successfully meeting all regulatory, safety, and operational standards.
This milestone aligns with Riyadh Air’s goal of connecting over 100 international cities by 2030 and contributing more than $20 billion to the Kingdom’s economy.
Additionally, the airline aims to enhance the travel experience by leveraging digital technology to streamline bookings and airport procedures, catering to Saudi Arabia’s young, tech-savvy population, as highlighted by CEO Tony Douglas.
During the certificate delivery ceremony, Saudi Minister of Transport and Logistics Saleh Al-Jasser told Al-Ekhbariya: “We congratulate Riyadh Air, the Public Investment Fund, and the Saudi citizens on the successful completion of the licensing process and the official issuance of the Air Operator Certificate.”
He further emphasized that Riyadh Air is now fully certified to operate, marking a significant milestone in the initiative set in motion by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strategy, which tasked PIF with launching the carrier.
“Establishing an airline of this scale is a monumental task, but the process is progressing smoothly. We are now in the final stages, with the next step being the launch of the first flight before the end of this year,” the minister remarked.
Al-Jasser also highlighted that the Kingdom is in the midst of restructuring its aviation infrastructure and launching several initiatives aimed at advancing the country’s aviation sector.
“The transport strategy includes restructuring the aviation sector, transitioning from a single operator model to a multi-operator system,” he said.
The minister added: “King Salman International Airport Development Co. is making steady progress in finalizing the airport’s design, with construction already underway. This comprehensive project includes passenger terminals, runways, private aviation facilities, and technical services, creating a fully integrated aviation city that is being developed as planned.”
Al-Jasser further noted that development projects are ongoing at airports in Jazan, Hail, and Qassim, as well as in Al-Baha, Abha, Taif, and Al-Jouf.
“Saudi airports have made significant strides in regulations, legislation, and services, which have attracted investments, strengthened passenger rights, and enhanced service quality,” he said.
The minister also emphasized: “We’ve expanded from 100 destinations connected to the Kingdom’s airports to 172 destinations, with the aviation strategy being a comprehensive plan for the future.”
