Yen’s safety status at risk from corona rates collapse

The growing threat to the yen has left worried investors searching for alternative asset havens. (AFP)
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Updated 01 October 2020
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Yen’s safety status at risk from corona rates collapse

  • Trend shift seen as good for Japan, headache for ECB

LONDON: The coronavirus epidemic — and the collapse in global interest rates it has sparked — may have blown a hole in conventional market wisdom that Japan’s yen strengthens during crises, triggering a warning bell for investors.

The yen has long been among the assets in greatest demand during disasters, when waves of overseas-held capital traditionally flee back to Japan, pushing the currency higher.

And for more than two decades, the trend has held.

Since 1997, a 5 percent fall in the US S&P500 index was accompanied 76 percent of the time by yen appreciation, according to a study by Nordea.

In mid-March, when the pandemic shock was at its height, that didn’t happen. US equities tumbled 9 percent and 15 percent in successive weeks, but the yen fell, too. In subsequent selloffs, including this month’s 4 percent equity slump, the currency has barely budged.

“The correlation with stocks didn’t hold during the corona crisis, which is a game changer as to how everyone looks at the yen,” Andreas Steno Larsen, chief global FX strategist at Nordea Markets, said.

The inverse 90-day yen-S&P500 correlation has since weakened to near decade-lows, he noted.

Between Jan. 20 and Sept. 9, the yen firmed 2 percent against a basket of major currencies, State Street calculates — a stark contrast with its 27 percent surge during the 2008 crisis.

Any lasting shift carries profound implications.

For Japan’s export-reliant economy, having frequently contended with sudden yen spikes, it is a positive. Investors though, face a hunt for other havens, should the yen lose that status.

It is a source of unease for investors such as Aaron Hurd, senior currency portfolio manager at State Street Global Markets, who uses the yen as a counterweight to risky assets in some investment models.

While Hurd doesn’t believe the yen has shed its safe-haven role, he said its gains during recent risk-off episodes had been “a bit disappointing” and needed monitoring.

The yen’s reputation stems from Japan’s stash of foreign assets, at $3.5 trillion the world’s largest international investment position. But it is also linked to a well-established market trend — the carry trade, where low-yield currencies are borrowed and then sold for higher-yield assets overseas.

That makes the yen prone to periodic spikes; when world markets go into reverse, so do carry trades, fueling a rush back into the funding currency to limit losses.

But yen-funded carry trades declined to around 8 trillion yen ($75.5 billion) in July, estimates Tohru Sasaki, JPMorgan’s head of Japan market research, down from a steady 10 trillion yen or so in recent years and a 2007 peak around 23 trillion yen.

What has changed is that this year’s worldwide collapse in short-term rates has eliminated the yield discount the yen has held since 1995, when Japanese benchmark rates fell to 0.5 percent.

Oliver Brennan, macro strategist at TS Lombard, said Swiss and euro zone interest rates were below Japan’s, so “if yen shorts from carry trades are going to be much smaller then the yen would no longer act as a risk-off currency.”

While Japanese three-month money market rates are at minus 0.1 percent, equivalent US rates have fallen to minus 0.2 percent versus 2 percent a year back and euro rates are at minus 0.52 percent, down from minus 0.4 percent.

It is still early days; after all, acute dollar shortages in March saw all other currencies being brushed aside. But guessing the identity of the next haven currency is already “the hottest topic in FX markets,” said Nordea’s Steno Larsen.

The shifting FX dynamics may test the European Central Bank.

With minus 0.5 percent interest rates, a balance of payments surplus, large capital markets and recent improvements in European cohesion, the euro might well be a candidate to replace the yen.

One central bank official recalled the euro’s sudden spike to 14-month highs in March, driven possibly by carry traders who had used it for funding before turmoil erupted.

“It may be due to the fact that running up to the COVID-19 stress there had been some shifts in the preferred funding currency for carry trades and the euro emerged as the currency you want to be short,” he said.


Oil Updates — prices heading for rebound this week as US-China trade talks resume

Updated 6 sec ago
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Oil Updates — prices heading for rebound this week as US-China trade talks resume

SINGAPORE: Oil prices slipped on Friday but were on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks after US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping resumed trade talks, raising hopes for growth and stronger demand in the world’s two largest economies.

Brent crude futures fell 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $65.15 a barrel as of 7:41 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude gave up 20 cents, also 0.3 percent, to $63.17, after gaining around 50 cents on Thursday.

On a weekly basis, both benchmarks were on track to settle higher after falling for two straight weeks. Brent has advanced 2.1 percent this week, while WTI is trading 4 percent higher.

China’s official Xinhua news agency said trade talks between Xi and Trump took place at Washington’s request. Trump said the call had led to a “very positive conclusion,” adding the US was “in very good shape with China and the trade deal.”

Canada also continued trade talks with the US, with Prime Minister Mark Carney in direct contact with Trump, according to Industry Minister Melanie Joly.

The oil market continued to swing with news on tariff negotiations and data showing how trade uncertainty and the impact of the US levies are flowing through into the global economy.

“The potential for increased US sanctions in Venezuela to limit crude exports and the potential for Israeli strike on Iranian infrastructure add to upside risks for prices,” analysts at BMI, a Fitch affiliate, said in a note on Friday.

“But both weaker demand for oil and increased production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers will add to downside price pressures in the coming quarters.”

Top exporter Saudi Arabia cut its July crude prices for Asia to near two-month lows. That was a smaller price reduction than expected after OPEC+ agreed to ramp up output by 411,000 barrels per day in July.


Saudi Arabia, UAE lead global office quality fit-out investments: JLL  

Updated 05 June 2025
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Saudi Arabia, UAE lead global office quality fit-out investments: JLL  

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are leading global investments in high-end office fit-outs, averaging over $2,400 per sq. meter, well above the global benchmark of $1,830, according to a new report.

An analysis by real estate advisory firm JLL, based on data from 25 countries, found that companies in both Gulf countries are prioritizing workspace upgrades as part of broader return-to-office strategies.

In the Middle East and Africa, corporate sentiment remains focused on targeted investments in design and functionality to support hybrid working models and enhance employee productivity. 

The report added that initiatives in Saudi Arabia such as the regional headquarters program are playing a crucial role in driving demand for Grade A office spaces in the Kingdom. It offers incentives such as a 30-year corporate income tax exemption and withholding tax relief, alongside regulatory support for multinationals operating in the Kingdom. 

Maroun Deeb, head of project and development services for Saudi Arabia and Bahrain at JLL, said: “The general optimism toward investing in workspaces is likely to continue throughout 2025 as growth-oriented corporations invest in office fit-outs to support their hybrid workplace policies.”  

He added: “Targeted investments to enhance employee experience will see an increased focus on workplace design, innovative technology solutions, and refurbishment opportunities amid growing interest in healthier, energy-efficient workspaces.”  

According to the analysis, companies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing more on fit-outs to enhance workplace experience and employee performance. 

The report added that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the premium global markets for quality fit-out investments on par with London, New York and Sydney. 

JLL analyzed data from 25 countries and found that sustainability is a key driver in many relocation strategies and office fit-outs. 

Some 68 percent of organizations globally plan to increase investment in sustainability performance in the next five years. 

In the Middle East and Africa region, the sentiment is strongest in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where 78 percent of corporate real estate leaders aim to enhance value through sustainability. 

The report, however, added that organizations in the region face challenges in meeting sustainability requirements due to limited suitable stock and high costs of upgrading older buildings. 

JLL added that early planning and integration of sustainability targets in relocation strategies and fit-out projects is crucial to address challenges. 

“Offices that embrace innovative technologies and sustainable design principles and have higher levels of green certification command a premium, especially in Dubai,” said Gary Tracey, head of project and development services UAE at JLL.  

He added: “Investments to improve sustainability will mitigate future operational expenses, remaining highly attractive to tenants seeking modern, efficient workplaces.”  

The report further said that supply chain disruptions in 2024 disproportionately affected the office market in the Middle East and North Africa, tightening project timeframes and escalating pricing. 

“From environmental and smart building systems to adaptive workspaces and settings, supply chain engagement is critical in managing costs and allowing for innovation in future-focused workspaces,” said JLL.  

The report added that mechanical and electrical services now account for a higher proportion of office spend as stricter environmental and sustainability standards require more complex systems. 

With 39 percent spending on M&E services, Cairo ranks among the top cities globally for average proportion of costs per sq. meter for such services, followed by Dubai at 30 percent and Riyadh at 29 percent. 

In April, in a separate analysis, JLL said that the global office sector is rebounding as companies scale back hybrid employment options, increasing demand for workspaces. 

In that report, JLL revealed that 59 percent of organizations globally are increasing investments in design and fit-outs.


Saudi Arabia and Syria explore investment cooperation in bid to boost economic integration 

Updated 05 June 2025
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Saudi Arabia and Syria explore investment cooperation in bid to boost economic integration 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Syria are set to advance economic cooperation following a virtual meeting between the Kingdom’s Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih and the Middle Eastern country’s Minister of Economy and Industry Mohammad Al-Shaar. 

The two sides reviewed prospects for investment partnerships and discussed opportunities to expand collaboration in both public and private sectors, according to a report by the Saudi Press Agency. 

The discussions focused on promoting high-quality investments across productive and service industries, with the goal of supporting Syria’s economic development and enhancing regional financial integration. 

The meeting also examined ways to build a favorable environment for cross-border investments that can contribute to long-term stability. 

Syria is undertaking significant efforts to revive its economy following years of conflict. The transitional government, led by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has initiated reforms, including the privatization of state enterprises, the lifting of import restrictions, and the encouragement of foreign investment. 

Notable developments encompass a $7 billion energy infrastructure agreement with a Qatari-led consortium, the reopening of the Damascus Securities Exchange, and a $300 million fiber-optic project involving Gulf telecom firms. 

“Al-Falih emphasized the importance of creating an enabling environment for expanding regional investment partnerships,” SPA said. 

He added that Saudi Arabia is keen to assist in stabilizing and developing the Syrian economy, which he described as essential for serving mutual interests and promoting regional economic prosperity. 

Additionally, the Kingdom and Qatar have pledged financial support for Syrian public sector salaries in May. 

These initiatives, alongside the easing of Western sanctions, aim to stabilize the economy and attract international investment. 

The talks are part of broader Saudi efforts to expand its global investment footprint and strengthen economic ties across regions. 

In May, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Damascus, where he met Al-Sharaa and pledged Saudi-Qatari support for Syria’s public sector, with a particular focus on energy and infrastructure investments. 

The Kingdom has also ramped up high-level international engagements this year. Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan participated in the Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh in May to discuss cross-border investment opportunities. 

In April, Al-Jadaan met with Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb in Washington to deepen financial and economic cooperation. 

Additionally, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim signed a memorandum of understanding with Spain on May 22 to promote trade diversification and new investment opportunities. 

Alibrahim also represented Saudi Arabia at the World Government Summit in Dubai in February to advance Vision 2030 partnerships. 

 


Saudi Arabia’s Port of NEOM installs 1st automated cranes, targets 2026 launch

Updated 05 June 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s Port of NEOM installs 1st automated cranes, targets 2026 launch

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s $500-billion giga-project NEOM has installed the Kingdom’s first fully automated, remote-controlled cranes at its Red Sea port as it moves ahead with plans to begin operations in 2026. 

The delivery of next-generation ship-to-shore and electric rubber-tyred gantry cranes marks a key milestone in the development of Terminal 1, which will accommodate the world’s largest container ships. NEOM is aiming to position the facility as a global logistics hub connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. 

The facility supports Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 by contributing to economic diversification through enhanced trade, logistics, and industrial capabilities. As global supply chains shift toward resilience and efficiency, NEOM’s strategic Red Sea location positions it as a vital link between Asia, Europe, and Africa. 

Sean Kelly, managing director of Port of NEOM, said: “The arrival of our first automated cranes marks a tangible milestone as we lay the foundations for an advanced, future-ready port.” 

He added: “We’re not only accelerating industrial growth in northwest Saudi Arabia, but we’re also setting a new benchmark for performance, efficiency, innovation and establishing a vital trade gateway for the Kingdom and the region beyond.” 

The new cranes will enable high-efficiency operations while allowing remote control from ergonomic workstations.  

Infrastructure developments, including a 900-meter quay wall and an 18.5-meter-deep channel, ensure the port can handle the largest vessels transiting the Suez Canal. Terminal 1 will also feature horizontal transport automation, boosting logistics capacity and regional industrial growth.

Alongside infrastructure upgrades, the port is investing in local talent development. A specialized program is training Saudi workers, including women, for high-tech roles such as remote crane operations. Ten participants from Saudi Arabia’s Tabuk region are currently in a two-year program combining technical training and mentorship.  

Trainee Hajjer Alatawi said: “This experience has shown me that port logistics is far more complex than just moving cargo; it’s about teamwork, precision and responsibility. Seeing more Saudi women entering this space gives me hope for a future where industries are defined by skills, not gender.” 
 
The press release added that by empowering Saudi workers with high-tech skills, “Port of NEOM is supporting NEOM’s vision of being a catalyst for a sustainable, diverse and innovative ecosystem that enables regional economic resilience and advances the goals of Saudi Vision 2030.”


UAE’s power capacity set to reach 79.1GW by 2035: GlobalData

Updated 05 June 2025
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UAE’s power capacity set to reach 79.1GW by 2035: GlobalData

RIYADH: The power capacity of the UAE is expected to reach 79.1 gigawatts by 2035, registering a compound annual growth rate of 3.4 percent from 2024, according to a report.

Findings from data analytics and consulting company GlobalData stated that annual power generation in the Emirates is expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.8 percent from 2024 to 2035, reaching 281.3 terawatt-hours. 

Boosting power capacity is essential for the UAE as energy demand rises alongside a rapidly growing population, which is expected to reach 11.9 million by the end of the decade, up from 11 million today.

A significant factor contributing to this increased energy consumption is the high expatriate population, which accounts for around 88 percent of the total and drives the growth in residential and commercial energy needs.

“The power sector in the UAE offers abundant opportunities for investors, with the government poised to make significant investments in the expansion and modernization of its generation and supply infrastructure,” said Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, power analyst at GlobalData. 

He added: “The anticipated increase in capacity is projected to occur predominantly in gas-based thermal power, as opposed to oil, where capacity is expected to remain stable. Manufacturers of gas turbines stand to benefit from this surge in gas-fired power capacity.” 

GlobalData further said that the climate conditions in the UAE are exceptionally conducive to solar power generation, prompting the government to allocate extensive tracts of undeveloped land for solar parks, including both photovoltaic and concentrated solar power installations. 

The report added that the UAE has the capability to not only meet local demand using solar energy but also cater to export needs.

The country is taking significant steps to bolster its renewable energy capacity, especially solar power, as a core strategy to address climate change. 

It is targeting a clean energy capacity of 14.2GW by the end of this decade and is planning to invest between $40.84 billion and $54.45 billion to triple renewable energy contribution by 2030. 

“Over the past decade, the UAE has experienced a marked increase in electricity demand, necessitating the importation of natural gas from Qatar,” said Saibasan. 

He added: “In response to this growing demand and to diversify its energy portfolio, the UAE has strategically shifted away from exclusive dependence on natural gas, expanding into renewable and nuclear energy sectors.” 

GlobalData further stated that the development of mega urban projects, such as Masdar City and Expo City Dubai, also highlights the need for sustainable energy solutions. 

“These smart cities are at the forefront of innovation, yet they also contribute to higher electricity consumption. Consequently, this trend necessitates the expansion of the electrical grid and investment in smart infrastructure to meet the evolving demands,” Saibasan concluded.