UK borrowing set to reach record high

The UK government has borrowed heavily to fight the coronavirus pandemic, with high levels of spending continuing despite falling tax revenues. (Reuters)
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Updated 22 October 2020
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UK borrowing set to reach record high

  • Moody’s issues downgrade as it warns Britain ‘effectively has no fiscal anchor’ downgrade

LONDON: Britain’s government borrowing exceeded forecasts in September and over the first half of the financial year was more than six times higher than a year earlier, due to the huge cost of the coronavirus pandemic, official data showed on Wednesday.

Public sector net borrowing totaled £36.1 billion ($47 billion) last month, above the £33.5 billion forecast in a Reuters poll, although August’s figure was revised down by more than £5 billion to £30.11 billion.

Separately, the Office for National Statistics said annual consumer price inflation in September rose to 0.5 percent in September from 0.2 percent in August, when it had been reduced by a temporary scheme to promote dining in restaurants.

Economists polled by Reuters had on average predicted a rise in inflation to 0.5 percent.

British public borrowing is on course to reach a record £372 billion this financial year, according to forecasts in August from the Office for Budget Responsibility, equivalent to 18.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the most since the Second World War. Driven by a surge in coronavirus-related spending and a fall in tax revenue after the biggest economic hit since at least the 1920s, borrowing in the first half of the financial year totalled £208.5 billion.

Wednesday’s figures also showed that public debt rose further above the £2 trillion mark to £2.06 trillion or 103.5 percent of GDP, its highest on this measure since 1960.

Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Britain’s sovereign credit rating on Friday to the same level as Belgium’s and the Czech Republic’s, warning that Britain “effectively has no fiscal anchor.”

Financial markets have repeatedly shrugged off these warnings, though, and 10-year government borrowing costs of around 0.2 percent are only slightly above an all-time low struck at the start of the pandemic.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England to launch a further £100 billion of bond purchases next month, adding to the £300 billion announced since March.

Earlier this month finance minister Rishi Sunak said rapidly rising debt made the country more vulnerable to any future spike in interest rates, but that for now his priority needed to be on supporting the economy.


IEA sees 2025 oil market in supply surplus

Updated 13 sec ago
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IEA sees 2025 oil market in supply surplus

LONDON: The world’s oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, as rising production outside the producer group is met by sluggish global demand growth.

“Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year,” the IEA said.

The Paris-based agency left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little-changed on the month, expecting oil demand to rise by 990,000 bpd next year.

It meanwhile expects non-OPEC+ supply growth to rise by 1.5 million bpd next year, driven by higher output from the US, Canada, Guyana and Argentina.

In its own monthly oil report on Tuesday, OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast this year and next, its fourth consecutive monthly downward revision, on weakness in China, India and other regions.

Global demand growth below 1 million bpd this year follows close to 2 million bpd of growth in 2023, the IEA said.

“The sub-1 million bpd growth pace for both years reflects below-par global economic conditions with the post-pandemic release of pent-up demand now complete,” it said.

Waning Chinese demand continues to hit global oil demand growth, with 2024 annual oil demand growth set to reach just 140,000 bpd, the IEA said, a tenth of the 1.4 million bpd demand growth of 2023.

The rapid development of cleaner energy technologies is also increasingly displacing oil, the agency said in its November report. The IEA made a slight upward adjustment to its 2024 oil demand growth forecast, up by 60,000 bpd on the month to 920,000 bpd, on higher-than-expected gasoil demand in OECD countries in the third quarter.


COP29: UN Secretary-General calls for urgent collaboration to halt ‘catastrophic’ climate change

Updated 19 min 4 sec ago
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COP29: UN Secretary-General calls for urgent collaboration to halt ‘catastrophic’ climate change

RIYADH: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the high stakes of climate inaction in a roundtable discussion held during the ongoing COP29 in Baku. 

At the High-Level Event on the stocktake of “Integrity Matters” at the gathering, global leaders convened to discuss the urgent need for climate action, reflecting on progress, challenges, and the role of non-state actors in achieving net-zero commitments. 

“We are racing the clock,” Guterres said, adding that with extreme weather events bringing “human tragedy and economic destruction worldwide,” the global goal of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius is becoming progressively more challenging to reach.

Reflecting on the achievements so far, the secretary-general acknowledged the scale of efforts already made, saying: “We did a massive global effort to steer our world onto a pass-through safety, a pass to net zero by mid-century.” 

However, he underscored that these efforts will only bear fruit if supported by stronger collaboration across sectors. Guterres urged “businesses, financial institutions, cities, regions, and more” to align with national governments on climate action plans and make coordinated strides toward decarbonization. 

“We must make sure that governments facilitate the work of other actors in this regard, and not that they complicate the work of other actors in compliance with the 1.5 aligned future,” he said.

In a show of support for the gathered climate leaders and activists, Guterres said: “Time is racing, and you are on the right side of history, and I’m very glad to be here with you.” 

Yet he issued a reminder that while a low-carbon transition is inevitable, “doesn’t mean that it will come on time.” 

He stressed that if delays continue, the consequences for the planet could be catastrophic. 

Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin also addressed the assembly, outlining his country’s continued dedication to combating global warming through policies targeting deforestation and renewable energy. 

“Brazil has a commitment to fighting climate change,” Alckmin said, adding that in the past two years, the country had achieved a significant 45.7 percent reduction in deforestation rates. 

He detailed Brazil’s efforts to shift toward greener fuels, with 15 percent of the nation’s diesel now comprising biodiesel, a fuel derived from plant oils. Alckmin highlighted that Brazil’s ethanol usage in gasoline, which currently stands at 27 percent, is set to increase to 35 percent in the near future. 
 
Additionally, the South American country is aiming to position itself as a leading producer of sustainable aviation fuel, which could replace kerosene in the flight industry, as part of its broader commitment to green energy. “Brazil will be prepared to be a major producer of SAF ethanol,” he said.

Helena Vines Fiestas, chair of the EU Platform on Sustainable Finance, provided an update on climate policies among the G20 countries, highlighting a surge in policies geared toward supporting non-state actors in their net-zero transitions. 

“All G20 countries now have policies, or some form of policies, to support the transition of non-state actors to net zero further. The number of policies has tripled since 2020,” she reported. 

Fiestas emphasized that while considerable work remains, the international community has demonstrated that net-zero regulation is feasible. “Progress is clear,” she said. “Work lies ahead, but the leaders have demonstrated that regulating on net zero is doable.”

Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Simon Stiell highlighted a new initiative aimed at strengthening transparency in environmental action. He announced that the UNFCCC’s Global Climate Action Portal is undergoing redevelopment to provide better accountability in tracking commitments. 

He shared that the portal would be relaunched shortly after COP29 concludes, and he emphasized the role of the entire global community in driving this agenda forward. 

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee addressed the concerns around recent political shifts in the US, asserting that state-level commitments to climate action would remain the same 

“I know there’s concern about the last election last Tuesday, but I want to make it really clear, if you take anything home from this meeting, this election will not stop, will not slow down, and will not retire the absolute commitment of states to lead this battle against climate change,” he affirmed. 

He added: “Donald Trump can do anything he wants, but he cannot stop me from committing to (tackling) climate change in my state.”

Catherine McKenna, chair of the UN High-Level Expert Group on Net-Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Actors, emphasized the urgency of high-integrity net-zero plans in her latest report, titled “Integrity Matters: The Hard Work is Now,” presented during the session. 

“The leaders highlighted in this review show that high-integrity net zero can be achieved. It’s no longer credible for companies, investors, cities, and regions to claim that moving faster on the climate crisis is too difficult or expensive,” McKenna said. She further urged a “much broader range” of stakeholders to establish comprehensive transition plans by 2025.

McKenna’s report, commissioned by Guterres, underscored that while voluntary net-zero pledges have risen, there remains a significant gap in alignment with rigorous standards, particularly in the phasing out of fossil fuels. 

“Voluntary efforts are not sufficient for the scale and pace of change we need to see,” McKenna said, advocating for stronger governmental regulations to ensure credible climate commitments and promote competitive investments. 

She added: “Every fraction of a degree matters, and every tonne of CO2 makes a difference. We must do the hard work now, or we will all face the consequences tomorrow.”

Guterres closed with a reminder of the significant obstacles that remain on the path toward net-zero goals. “We need not only to do the right thing, but we need to fight those that are trying not to allow us to do the right thing,” he said. 
 


COP29: Saudi Arabia signs major green energy pact with Central Asian nations

Updated 13 min 48 sec ago
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COP29: Saudi Arabia signs major green energy pact with Central Asian nations

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has signed a joint executive program with Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan to strengthen collaboration on renewable energy development and transmission. 

The deal was signed on the sidelines of the 29th UN Climate Summit in Baku by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and his counterparts from the three nations, according to a press statement. 

The initiative aims to foster a strategic partnership to assess regional power grid interconnection projects centered on renewable power.

Saudi Arabia, a leader in Middle Eastern clean energy, aims to meet 50 percent of its power needs from renewable sources by 2030.

“This signing is in implementation of bilateral memorandums of understanding previously signed between Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan in the energy sector on Jun 12, 2023, as well as two energy cooperation agreements with Azerbaijan on May 24, 2023, and with the Republic of Uzbekistan on Aug. 17, 2022,” noted the Ministry of Energy.

The ministry highlighted that this partnership will enhance energy infrastructure efficiency and promote integration of renewable energy into the national grids of the partner nations.

The program will also explore joint investment opportunities, laying groundwork for regional grid interconnection projects to support renewable electricity generation and storage. 

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev talking with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Saudi Ministry of Energy

ACWA Power, a major Saudi utility company, will oversee these renewable energy projects in Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. 

“The signatory parties also agreed to adopt a mechanism for exchanging information and expertise, which includes knowledge-sharing among experts and specialists, organizing specialized conferences and seminars, as well as holding joint working sessions to strengthen close cooperation among the countries,” the statement added. 

Also on the COP29 sidelines, ACWA Power signed agreements to bolster renewable initiatives, including a deal with Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy to develop battery energy storage systems with a capacity of up to 2 gigawatts per hour. This initiative is aimed at enhancing grid stability. 

Additionally, ACWA Power entered into a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijani firm SOCAR and Masdar to develop up to 3.5 GW of offshore wind projects in the Caspian Sea — the first of its kind for Azerbaijan. 

Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman watches as Saudi Electricity Co. signs an MoU. Saudi Ministry of Energy

Another deal struck on the sidelines of the summit saw Saudi Electricity Co. sign an MoU with network operators in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to develop regional interconnection projects. 

SEC also signed another MoU with AzerEnergy for cooperation in electricity transmission and integrating renewable energy sources into the power grid. 

During COP29, Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan signed a comprehensive roadmap outlining a timeline and action plan for priority energy projects, facilitating cooperative efforts in various fields. 

“This roadmap aims to outline an action plan and establish a timeline for priority projects, facilitating procedures to achieve shared objectives,” said the Energy Ministry. 

It added: “The roadmap includes cooperation in several vital areas, such as renewable energy, carbon capture, utilization, and storage, clean hydrogen, energy efficiency, and enhancing the sustainability and resilience of supply chains, in addition to trade in refined and petrochemical products.” 


Saudi inflation holds steady at 1.9% despite global price pressures: GASTAT

Updated 14 November 2024
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Saudi inflation holds steady at 1.9% despite global price pressures: GASTAT

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate reached 1.9 percent in October compared to the same month last year, driven primarily by higher housing costs, official data showed.

According to the General Authority for Statistics, actual housing rents saw an annual increase of 11.6 percent, with apartment rents rising by 11.3 percent. 

Overall, expenses for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose by 9.6 percent compared to the same period in 2023. 

Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate remains among the lowest in the Middle East, highlighting the nation’s effective measures to stabilize the economy and mitigate global price pressures. 

A World Bank report last month noted Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience, projecting the Kingdom’s inflation rate to remain steady at 2.1 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, lower than the Gulf Cooperation Council average.

“The increase in this section (housing) had a significant impact on the continuation of the annual inflation pace for the month of October 2024 due to the weight formed by this section, which amounted to 25.5 percent,” stated GASTAT. 

The report also highlighted that prices for personal goods and services rose by 2.3 percent in October, led by a 24.1 percent rise in the costs of jewelry, watches, and precious antiques. 

Restaurant and hotel expenses saw a 1.9 percent annual increase, while education costs rose by 1.1 percent. Food and beverage prices saw a slight increase of 0.1 percent in October, driven by a 2.6 percent rise in vegetable prices. 

In contrast, prices for furnishings and home equipment fell by 3.1 percent year on year in October, while expenses for clothing and footwear declined by 2.7 percent. Transportation prices also dropped by 3.1 percent annually, influenced by a 4.2 percent decrease in vehicle purchase prices. 

Compared to September, Saudi Arabia’s Consumer Price Index experienced a modest 0.3 percent rise. 

“This monthly inflation index was influenced by a 0.8 percent rise in the section of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which in turn, was affected by a 1 percent increase in actual housing rents and prices,” added GASTAT. 

Prices for personal goods and services rose 0.4 percent month on month in October, while transportation expenses increased by 0.3 percent. Food and beverage prices and health expenses, however, saw slight declines of 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. 

The World Bank projects GCC inflation to reach 2.2 percent in 2024 and 2.7 percent in 2025. Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow by 1.6 percent this year and accelerate to 4.9 percent in 2025. 

Wholesale Price Index 

In a separate report, GASTAT revealed that Saudi Arabia’s Wholesale Price Index increased by 2.4 percent in October year on year. 

“This increase is mainly attributed to a 5.4 percent increase in the prices of other transportable goods, affected by a 12 percent increase in the prices of refined petroleum products, as well as a 9.6 percent increase in furniture and other transportable goods,” the authority stated. 

Agricultural and fishing product prices saw an annual rise of 0.8 percent, as agricultural product costs increased by 2 percent. Metal products, machinery, and equipment also saw a 0.5 percent increase in October, led by a 3.5 percent rise in basic metals. 

Conversely, prices for ores and minerals dropped by 2.7 percent due to a decline in costs for stones and sand. 

Food, beverages, tobacco, and textiles decreased by 0.1 percent, driven by a 4.6 percent decline in the prices of meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, oils, and fats. 

Compared to September, the WPI declined by 0.2 percent, influenced by a 0.6 percent drop in prices of other transportable goods. 

Average Price Index 

In an additional report, GASTAT noted shifts in the average prices of goods and services across Saudi Arabia in October. 

Prices of Abu Sorra Egyptian oranges increased by 7.29 percent compared to the previous month, while green bean prices rose by 6.98 percent. Turkish plums and imported honey also saw monthly increases of 5.38 percent and 4.58 percent, respectively. 

In contrast, the price of imported barley fell by 6.16 percent, and the costs of hay and local melon dropped by 4.93 percent and 4.02 percent, respectively, in October. 


Oil Updates – prices ease on fears of higher output, sluggish demand

Updated 14 November 2024
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Oil Updates – prices ease on fears of higher output, sluggish demand

LONDON: Oil prices slipped in early trade on Thursday, reversing most of the previous session’s gains, weighed down by worries of higher global production amid slow demand growth, with a firmer dollar exacerbating the declines.

Brent crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $71.93 a barrel by 7:00 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $68.01.

“Oil is tackling the (earlier) weaker demand forecast narrative by OPEC, who deferred rolling back additional production for yet another month, fearing the adverse effect on prices,” said Phillip Nova’s senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva in an email.

On Tuesday, OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast to 1.82 million bpd in 2024, down from 1.93 million bpd forecast last month, on weak demand in China, India and other regions, sending oil prices to their lowest in nearly two weeks.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration has slightly raised its expectation of US oil output to an average 13.23 million barrels per day this year, or 300,000 bpd higher than last year’s record 12.93 million bpd, and up from 13.22 million bpd forecast earlier.

The agency also raised its global oil output forecast for 2024 to 102.6 million bpd, from its prior forecast of 102.5 million bpd. For next year, it expects world output of 104.7 million bpd, up from 104.5 million bpd previously.

The EIA’s oil demand growth forecasts are weaker than OPEC’s, at about 1 million bpd in 2024, although that is up from its prior forecast of about 900,000 bpd.

Market participants are now waiting for the International Energy Agency’s oil market report, due later in the day, and the EIA’s US crude oil and product stockpile data for further trading cues.

Concerns about China’s demand remains a key contributor to softening prices, analysts say.

“Despite various stimulus measures implemented by Chinese authorities, there has been little to no improvement in economic activity or sentiment within mainland China,” said Phillip Nova’s Sachdeva.

China continues to be the “sore joint” for oil demand and the primary reason why oil markets are bracing for an oversupply in 2025, she added.

Also weighing on prices, the US dollar rose to near a seven-month high against major currencies on Wednesday after data showed US inflation for October increased in line with expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates.

“..the stronger USD is creating strong headwinds for commodities,” ANZ Research said in a note.

A firmer dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback expensive for buyers using other currencies.