What do Arabs want from the next US president? Experts analyze results of survey on Election 2020

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Updated 05 November 2020
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What do Arabs want from the next US president? Experts analyze results of survey on Election 2020

  • Virtual event hosted by Arab News Research & Studies Unit discussed results of Arab News/YouGov pan-Arab study
  • Panelists weighed in on views on topics ranging from a possible Biden presidency to US role in Israel-Palestine mediation

LONDON: A new study conducted by Arab News and the polling firm YouGov has revealed the diverse, often surprising and at times contradictory attitudes of Arabs from across the Middle East and North Africa toward the 2020 US presidential election. From Palestine to Iran, from Obama to Trump, Arabs do not always agree, but there are some areas in which they display a striking level of unity.

On Friday, the Arabs News Research & Studies Unit hosted a virtual debate to discuss the results of the Arab News/YouGov survey on how they perceive the US and Election 2020. The event featured experts from across the US and Middle East and was moderated by Faisal Abbas, Editor in Chief of Arab News.

One of the study’s key findings is that Arabs — if forced to choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden — would choose the latter. But this support for the Democratic nominee does not come without a caveat. A majority (58 percent) of the 3,000 respondents — adult Arabs hailing from all 18 Middle East and North African states — agreed that Biden, who served as vice president to Barack Obama until 2017, must distance himself from Obama-era policies.

That Arabs overwhelmingly view the Obama-era policies negatively is far from surprising, according to Ali Khedery, CEO of Dragoman Ventures. Arabs recognize that Obama’s foreign policy legacy in the Middle East was one of repeated failures, he said.

“If we take a quick tour of the region under Obama, you will recall that Obama intervened in Libya militarily, only to then abandon it and let it slip into a civil war and violent tribal conflict. He also abandoned (Egyptian President) Hosni Mubarak, not understanding the fact that the vacuum left would be filled by Islamists, the Muslim Brotherhood specifically.”

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Khedery continued: “President Obama called Syrians — as they were trying to rise up — farmers and lawyers, and sat by and watched as (Syrian President Bashar) Assad perpetrated a genocide, an ethnic cleansing, and did nothing to stop that.”

He pointed to Iran — seen by Arabs as one of the top threats facing the US globally — as another key failure of the Obama-Biden administration, and one that Arabs are particularly cognizant of.  “Obama even looked the other way while the Iranian and IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) increased their influence in the region across Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Yemen,” Khedery said.

These failures, he added, were not lost on Arabs from across the region — and they do not want four more years of it.

“Overall, I’d give the Obama-Biden policy an F in the region,” Khedery said, “and so I’m not surprised that a majority of Arabs want Biden to distance himself from Obama’s legacy.”

Given Obama’s track record, it is perhaps to be expected that Arabs view Biden’s best course of action as a departure from that era’s policies. However, the Arab News-YouGov polls also revealed some surprising — and perhaps contradictory — opinions held by the region’s populace.

The Palestinian question, and what role the US should play in resolving it, supplied some of the most revealing data in the entire pan-Arab survey.

A slight majority of Palestinians polled in the occupied territories (52/48 percent) supported US efforts to play a bigger role in Israel-Palestine mediation. By the same margin, respondents from all 18 countries combined opposed the motion.

Given Washington’s undeniable superpower status, Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria and Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, said this finding should come as no surprise. “My understanding of the polling result, with respect to the Palestinians in occupied territories, is that they want help. They want American leverage over America’s friend Israel in order to secure what the Palestinians view as their just demands.”

But whether or not a Democratic presidency would deliver this is another question, he said, noting that there is a rift within the party between younger people, who support the Palestinian cause, and the traditional wing, of which Biden is a part, that is “not there yet.”

If Biden wins, “there is going to be a split between the younger people in the party, who are more to the left, and some of the more traditional Democrats, including Biden, who has already indicated, for example, that he will not use American aid to Israel in order to leverage the country.”

Looking to the future, Ford said: “I actually don't think there’s going to be a huge difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s Middle East policies, I don’t think President Trump or President Biden will make the Middle East a big priority. That means America certainly will be influential in the region, but it won’t be decisive — it does not even want to be decisive.

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“The US won’t leave the Middle East, but we can expect more like their Syria policy… Special operations forces and drones, that's the model for future engagement in the Middle East - on both the Trump and Biden sides.”

Dania Koleilat Khatib, Executive Director of Al-Istishari Al Strategy Center, echoed Ford’s views on the division between Palestinians and the wider Arab world. She said the poll’s findings underscore the necessary pragmatism adopted by the Palestinians, who are directly involved in the conflict, which contrasts with the idealism of Arabs from elsewhere, who have no direct stake in a resolution of the seemingly intractable conflict.

“The US is a superpower. The Palestinians know this, and they know they need them to resolve the dilemma, in order to reach a resolution,” she said.

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But she added that there is another dimension at play in the Palestinian question: regional and global stability.

“The Muslim Brotherhood and Iran,” she said, “claim legitimacy by attaching themselves to the Palestinian cause, regardless of whether they care about it or not. We know they don’t care, but they claim to for legitimacy.

“So, if we solve the Israel-Palestine issue, the main source of legitimacy that these destabilizing movements rely upon will be gone. This makes resolving the conflict a prime issue for the stability of the region, and thereby for the stability of the world,” Khatib said.

Citing the significance of the Arab News-YouGov survey, she said “fact-based discussions, polls and lobbying are needed for the US to have a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

Khalid-Abdulla Janahi, Chairman of Vision 3, spoke on the trend of normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries, describing the Bahraini-Israeli normalization deal –as “a long time coming.” He said Arabs should not depend on the US to resolve the conflicts of the Middle East but instead assert their rights as citizens to address them.

While Arabs were divided over some issues, one single issue was a source of overwhelming agreement: regardless of who becomes president on November 3, the US must continue Trump’s tough line on Iran.

“Containing Iran and Hezbollah” featured among the four main issues that respondents wanted the next US president to focus on. One-third of respondents in all 18 countries agreed that the US should continue its sanctions and maintain a war posture.

For Arabs and everyone else in the region, the issue of Iran “is one of the most vexing … and has been so since the 1979 revolution,” said Khedery, who served as a special assistant to five US ambassadors and advised three heads of US Central Command from 2003 to 2009.

He said that he is more optimistic about Trump’s policy on Iran than he is of Biden, because Trump “understands Iran for what it is.”

“Trump knows that there can be no peace with what is, essentially, a fascist and genocidal regime that oppresses its own people while seeking to spread the Khomeinist revolution across Arabia,” he said.

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“Obama said Arabs need to learn to share Arabia with Persia; that, by definition, cannot occur. The current Iranian regime seeks to expand itself and reconstitute what used to be the Persian empire through any means necessary: terrorism, genocide and other malignant activities.”

This is why, despite the Arab preference for Biden, a second Trump term as president may in fact serve their interests better, he said.

“Trump recognizing Iran for what it is and applying maximum pressure is far superior to what Obama and Biden did, which was to live in denial of what Iran is and dealing with them for what they wished they were, as opposed to what they really are,” Khedery said.

If Biden came back into office, Khedery said, he is likely to re-enter negotiations with Iran, but in doing that Biden may inadvertently “give Iranians another lifeline to try to dominate the region.”

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Speaking for YouGov, Lara Al-Barazi, Research Director of YouGov MENA, said: “Any kind of survey cannot reach everyone, so a close representation of the population is taken to mirror as close as possible what is occurring on the ground.”

The partners for Friday’s panel debate were Wayne State University, Newstalk Florida and the Center for Media and Peace Initiatives.


Lebanon aims to lure back wealthy Gulf tourists to jumpstart its war-torn economy

Updated 57 min 48 sec ago
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Lebanon aims to lure back wealthy Gulf tourists to jumpstart its war-torn economy

  • Lebanon’s new political leaders sense an opportunity to revitalize the economy once again with help from wealthy neighbors

BEIRUT: Fireworks lit up the night sky over Beirut’s famous St. Georges Hotel as hit songs from the 1960s and 70s filled the air in a courtyard overlooking the Mediterranean Sea.
The retro-themed event was hosted last month by Lebanon’s Tourism Ministry to promote the upcoming summer season and perhaps recapture some of the good vibes from an era viewed as a golden one for the country. In the years before a civil war began in 1975, Lebanon was the go-to destination for wealthy tourists from neighboring Gulf countries seeking beaches in summer, snow-capped mountains in winter and urban nightlife year-round.
In the decade after the war, tourists from Gulf countries – and crucially, Saudi Arabia – came back, and so did Lebanon’s economy. But by the early 2000s, as the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah gained power, Lebanon’s relations with Gulf countries began to sour. Tourism gradually dried up, starving its economy of billions of dollars in annual spending.
Now, after last year’s bruising war with Israel, Hezbollah is much weaker and Lebanon’s new political leaders sense an opportunity to revitalize the economy once again with help from wealthy neighbors. They aim to disarm Hezbollah and rekindle ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, which in recent years have prohibited their citizens from visiting Lebanon or importing its products.
“Tourism is a big catalyst, and so it’s very important that the bans get lifted,” said Laura Khazen Lahoud, the country’s tourism minister.
On the highway leading to the Beirut airport, once-ubiquitous banners touting Hezbollah’s leadership have been replaced with commercial billboards and posters that read “a new era for Lebanon.” In the center of Beirut, and especially in neighborhoods that hope to attract tourists, political posters are coming down, and police and army patrols are on the rise.
There are signs of thawing relations with some Gulf neighbors. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have lifted yearslong travel bans.
All eyes are now on Saudi Arabia, a regional political and economic powerhouse, to see if it will follow suit, according to Lahoud and other Lebanese officials. A key sticking point is security, these officials say. Although a ceasefire with Israel has been in place since November, near-daily airstrikes have continued in southern and eastern Lebanon, where Hezbollah over the years had built its political base and powerful military arsenal.
Tourism as a diplomatic and economic bridge
As vital as tourism is — it accounted for almost 20 percent of Lebanon’s economy before it tanked in 2019 — the country’s leaders say it is just one piece of a larger puzzle they are trying to put back together.
Lebanon’s agricultural and industrial sectors are in shambles, suffering a major blow in 2021, when Saudi Arabia banned their exports after accusing Hezbollah of smuggling drugs into Riyadh. Years of economic dysfunction have left the country’s once-thriving middle class in a state of desperation.
The World Bank says poverty nearly tripled in Lebanon over the past decade, affecting close to half its population of nearly 6 million. To make matters worse, inflation is soaring, with the Lebanese pound losing 90 percent of its value, and many families lost their savings when banks collapsed.
Tourism is seen by Lebanon’s leaders as the best way to kickstart the reconciliation needed with Gulf countries — and only then can they move on to exports and other economic growth opportunities.
“It’s the thing that makes most sense, because that’s all Lebanon can sell now,” said Sami Zoughaib, research manager at The Policy Initiative, a Beirut-based think tank.
With summer still weeks away, flights to Lebanon are already packed with expats and locals from countries that overturned their travel bans, and hotels say bookings have been brisk.
At the event hosted last month by the tourism ministry, the owner of the St. Georges Hotel, Fady El-Khoury, beamed. The hotel, owned by his father in its heyday, has acutely felt Lebanon’s ups and downs over the decades, closing and reopening multiple times because of wars. “I have a feeling that the country is coming back after 50 years,” he said.
On a recent weekend, as people crammed the beaches of the northern city of Batroun, and jet skis whizzed along the Mediterranean, local business people sounded optimistic that the country was on the right path.
“We are happy, and everyone here is happy,” said Jad Nasr, co-owner of a private beach club. “After years of being boycotted by the Arabs and our brothers in the Gulf, we expect this year for us to always be full.”
Still, tourism is not a panacea for Lebanon’s economy, which for decades has suffered from rampant corruption and waste.
Lebanon has been in talks with the International Monetary Fund for years over a recovery plan that would include billions in loans and require the country to combat corruption, restructure its banks, and bring improvements to a range of public services, including electricity and water.
Without those and other reforms, Lebanon’s wealthy neighbors will lack confidence to invest there, experts said. A tourism boom alone would serve as a “morphine shot that would only temporarily ease the pain” rather than stop the deepening poverty in Lebanon, Zoughaib said.
The tourism minister, Lahoud, agreed, saying a long-term process has only just begun.
“But we’re talking about subjects we never talked about before,” she said. “And I think the whole country has realized that war doesn’t serve anyone, and that we really need our economy to be back and flourish again.”


US mulls giving millions to controversial Gaza aid foundation, sources say

Updated 07 June 2025
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US mulls giving millions to controversial Gaza aid foundation, sources say

  • The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said

WASHINGTON: The State Department is weighing giving $500 million to the new foundation providing aid to war-shattered Gaza, according to two knowledgeable sources and two former US officials, a move that would involve the US more deeply in a controversial aid effort that has been beset by violence and chaos.
The sources and former US officials, all of whom requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said that money for Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) would come from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is being folded into the US State Department.
The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said.
The GHF, which has been fiercely criticized by humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations, for an alleged lack of neutrality, began distributing aid last week amid warnings that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli aid blockade, which was lifted on May 19 when limited deliveries were allowed to resume.
The foundation has seen senior personnel quit and had to pause handouts twice this week after crowds overwhelmed its distribution hubs.
The State Department and GHF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Reuters has been unable to establish who is currently funding the GHF operations, which began in Gaza last week. The GHF uses private US security and logistics companies to transport aid into Gaza for distribution at so-called secure distribution sites.
On Thursday, Reuters reported that a Chicago-based private equity firm, McNally Capital, has an “economic interest” in the for-profit US contractor overseeing the logistics and security of GHF’s aid distribution hubs in the enclave.
While US President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel say they don’t finance the GHF operation, both have been pressing the United Nations and international aid groups to work with it.
The US and Israel argue that aid distributed by a long-established UN aid network was diverted to Hamas. Hamas has denied that.
USAID has been all but dismantled. Some 80 percent of its programs have been canceled and its staff face termination as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to align US foreign policy with his “America First” agenda.
One source with knowledge of the matter and one former senior official said the proposal to give the $500 million to GHF has been championed by acting deputy USAID Administrator Ken Jackson, who has helped oversee the agency’s dismemberment.
The source said that Israel requested the funds to underwrite GHF’s operations for 180 days.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The two sources said that some US officials have concerns with the plan because of the overcrowding that has affected the aid distribution hubs run by GHF’s contractor, and violence nearby.
Those officials also want well-established non-governmental organizations experienced in running aid operations in Gaza and elsewhere to be involved in the operation if the State Department approves the funds for GHF, a position that Israel likely will oppose, the sources said.
Gaza hospital officials have said more than 80 people had been shot dead and hundreds wounded near GHF’s distribution points between June 1-3.
Since launching its operation, the GHF has opened three hubs, but over the past two days, only two of them have been functioning.
Witnesses blamed Israeli soldiers for the killings. The Israeli military said it fired warning shots on two days, while on Tuesday it said soldiers had fired at Palestinian “suspects” advancing toward their positions.


Activist boat says rescues migrants en route to Gaza

Updated 06 June 2025
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Activist boat says rescues migrants en route to Gaza

  • The Madleen has “a 12-member crew of peaceful activists” headed for Gaza “with the aim of breaking the blockade of Palestine by the state of Israel,” the March to Gaza Greece group said

ATHENS: A vessel organized by an international activist coalition to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza has rescued several migrants from the sea near Crete, a support group in Greece said on Friday.
The Madleen, launched by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, said it had received a distress signal from a boat in the Mediterranean, forcing it to change course off the coast of Crete.
The Madleen has “a 12-member crew of peaceful activists” headed for Gaza “with the aim of breaking the blockade of Palestine by the state of Israel,” the March to Gaza Greece group said.
“Upon arrival (at the scene), it discovered that the boat was sinking with approximately 30-35 people aboard.”
At that point, the Madleen was approached by a ship that initially identified itself as Egyptian.
“The activists aboard the Madleen quickly realized that this was a false identification and that the ship was, in fact, a Libyan coast guard vessel,” they said.
“Libya is not considered a safe country and for this reason some of the refugees jumped into the sea to avoid being returned there.
“The Madleen rescued four Sudanese individuals who had jumped into the water and brought them aboard.”
After several hours of calls for assistance, a Frontex vessel eventually picked up the rescued individuals, the group said, referring to the European Union’s border and coast guard agency.
The Madleen sailed from Sicily on Sunday.
Those on board include climate activist Greta Thunberg.
The Freedom Flotilla Coalition, launched in 2010, is a non-violent international movement supporting Palestinians.
It combines humanitarian aid with political protest against the Israeli blockade of Gaza.
Israel has come under increasing international criticism over the critical humanitarian situation in the occupied Palestinian territory.
It blocked all aid into Gaza on March 2. The United Nations warned on May 30 that the entire population of more than two million was at risk of famine.
Fighters from Palestinian group Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
A total of 1,218 people died, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
The militants abducted 251 hostages, 55 of whom remain in Gaza, including 32 the Israeli military says are dead.
Since October 2023, Israel’s retaliatory war on Hamas-run Gaza has killed 54,677 people there, mostly civilians, according to the Gaza health ministry.
The United Nations deems the health ministry figures to be reliable.
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
 

 


Iraq frees Australian, Egyptian engineers after four years, but keeps travel ban

Iraqi police stand guard in Baghdad. (AFP file photo)
Updated 06 June 2025
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Iraq frees Australian, Egyptian engineers after four years, but keeps travel ban

  • Both men were sentenced to five years in prison and fined $12 million, the working group said

BAGHDAD: Iraq has released an Australian mechanical engineer and his Egyptian colleague who were detained for more than four years over a dispute with the central bank, authorities said Friday, though the two remain barred from leaving the country.
Robert Pether and Khalid Radwan were working for an engineering company contracted to oversee the construction of the bank’s new Baghdad headquarters, according to a United Nations report, when they were arrested in April 2021.
A report from a working group for the UN Human Rights Council said the arrests stemmed from a contractual dispute over “alleged failure to execute certain payments.”
Both men were sentenced to five years in prison and fined $12 million, the working group said.
A security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that Pether, in his fifties, was released “due to his poor health.”
Australian media have previously reported that the family suspected Pether had developed lung cancer in prison and that he had undergone surgery for skin cancer.
A second Iraqi official confirmed the release of Radwan, adding that he was not allowed to leave the country until a “final decision” was made regarding his case.
Australia’s ABC broadcaster quoted the country’s foreign minister, Penny Wong, as welcoming the release and saying the Australian government had raised the issue with Iraqi authorities more than 200 times.
Simon Harris, foreign minister for Ireland, where Pether’s family lives, posted on X: “This evening, I have been informed of the release on bail of Robert Pether, whose imprisonment in Iraq has been a case of great concern.
“This is very welcome news in what has been a long and distressing saga for Robert’s wife, three children and his wider family and friends.”
Speaking to Irish national broadcaster RTE, Pether’s wife, Desree Pether, said her husband was “not well at all” and “really needs to just come home so he can get the proper medical care he needs.”
“He’s completely unrecognizable. It’s a shock to the system to see how far he has declined,” she said.
 

 


Syrian leader makes first visit to cradle of country’s uprising

Updated 06 June 2025
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Syrian leader makes first visit to cradle of country’s uprising

  • SANA published footage showing a cheering crowd greeting Sharaa
  • Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab visited Daraa’s historic Omari mosque during the trip

DAMASCUS: Syrian Arab Republic’s interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa on Friday visited the southern city of Daraa, the cradle of the country’s uprising, for the first time since ousting longtime ruler Bashar Assad almost six months ago.

State news agency SANA published footage showing a cheering crowd greeting Sharaa, who was seen waving and shaking hands with people during the visit, which came on the Muslim holiday of Eid Al-Adha.

Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab visited Daraa’s historic Omari mosque during the trip, the presidency said in a statement, releasing images of the visit showing the leader among the crowd.

SANA also said he met with local civil and military officials, as well as a delegation from the Christian minority.

Provincial governor Anwar Al-Zoabi said in a statement that the visit was “an important milestone in the course of national recovery.”

In 2011, young boys who had scrawled graffiti against Assad were detained in Daraa, sparking nationwide protests.

After the war erupted following the brutal repression of protests, rebels seized control of Daraa and hung on until 2018, when the city returned to Assad under a deal mediated by Russia that allowed former fighters to keep their light weapons.

On December 6, as Sharaa’s Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led a lightning offensive on Damascus from the country’s northwest, a coalition of armed groups from Daraa province was formed to help oust Assad, who was toppled two days later.

The province was plagued by unrest in recent years.