Experts weigh up Biden’s Middle East policy options at Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate

Many analysts are of the opinion that while the Middle East may not be the Democratic administration’s overarching concern, the US has no interest in withdrawing from the region. (AFP/File Photo)
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Updated 10 November 2020
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Experts weigh up Biden’s Middle East policy options at Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate

  • Virtual event hosted by Emirates Policy Center with focus on COVID-19, US elections and UAE-Israel treaty
  • Participants in Monday’s session foresaw both continuity and change in relations between US and Arab world

DUBAI: Joe Biden was a longtime member of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, but the jury is still out on foreign policy’s exact place in the projected US president’s list of priorities.

Many analysts are of the opinion that while the Middle East may not be the Democratic administration’s overarching concern, the US has no interest in withdrawing from the region. 

Experts who participated in a session, entitled “US Elections: The Return of International Competition in the Middle East,” anticipate a shift in relations between the US and the Arab world.

Monday’s virtual panel discussion, moderated by Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of Emirates Policy Center, was part of the seventh Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate.

“The Middle East is not a big priority for this incoming administration,” said Paul Salem, president of The Middle East Institute. “The US is going through the worst pandemic in a century and the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Middle East foreign policy didn’t figure in the election and the American public is not focused at all on it.”

He said the Biden administration was mainly focused on domestic issues — and foreign policy matters involving the pandemic, climate change, economic recovery or competition with Russia and China.

Recalling that the first foreign visit by President Donald Trump was to a Middle East city (Riyadh), Salem said: “All of this won’t be the case in a new Biden administration.”




(L-R)Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan hold up documents after participating in the signing of the Abraham Accords. (AFP/File Photo)

His sentiments were echoed by Steven Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, who said it could take six months or more for the Biden administration to “flesh out” its approach to different conflicts and countries in the Middle East.

He said Biden’s first destination would likely be Canada, followed by Europe. “The big question is whether we will see continuity or real change in US foreign policy in the Middle East,” Cook said. “The tendency is to see a lot more continuity in the relationships and the approach to the region, although there have been significant swings in American foreign policy from administration to administration in recent years.”

With regard to Iran, he expects a shift from “maximum pressure” towards re-engaging with the Islamic Republic and efforts to re-enter or re-negotiate the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal.

“That is a very significant change from President Trump,” Cook said. “It’s something that leaders on the other side of the Gulf are going to have to brace for because this is something, I think is going to be central to a Biden administration’s Middle East policy.”

FASTFACTS

Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate

* Is the 7th ADSD, and is being held on Nov. 9, 10 & 11.

* Main topics are COVID-19, US elections and UAE-Israel treaty.

* Discussions being held via Zoom and live-streamed on social media.

Concurring with Cook’s view, Salem said Biden will probably look to strengthen the nuclear deal and engage in negotiations on missile defense and Iran’s “interference” in regional countries. “What Biden can benefit from is that Trump has left him with a lot of leverage over Iran,” he said.

“There are so many sanctions now that will not be removed as a result simply of the nuclear deal, that a Biden administration could use in diplomacy with Iran to get a better result than they got a few years ago.”

As for Washington’s Gulf allies, he foresees different kinds of relations, lacking the personal warmth that existed under Trump. As such, he said that leaders of the region and Biden’s team would have to figure out the dynamics of those relations. “But there is no doubt that partnership for economic, energy, security and political reasons with the main Gulf countries will remain and is not going to be greatly affected,” Salem said.

Cook described the US-Saudi relationship as important but one that should be institutionalized and subjected to a proper foreign-policy process in the US. In terms of Democrats’ behavior towards the Kingdom, he anticipates a change of tone but did not foresee Biden undertaking tangible policy changes at a moment when the US is dealing with a global pandemic, the worst economic situation since the 1930s, racial problems and a deeply divided populace.

“The president’s inbox on domestic affairs would suggest that taking on so much in the Middle East is not something that’s going to happen,” said Cook.

According to William Wechsler, director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, the Biden victory will benefit the region, as a second Trump term would have accelerated the dynamic of a perceived US withdrawal from the Middle East.

“Biden is, at heart, an internationalist, an institutionalist, and from an older generation of what the longstanding US interests and relationships are in the Gulf and the wider Middle East,” he said. “And that’s how he will approach these issues.”




While William Wechsler belives Biden is an internationalist at heart, experts expect his administration to be focused on domestic issues and foreign policy matters involving the pandemic, climate change, economic recovery or competition with Russia and China

However, because of this widespread perception of American withdrawal, Wechsler foresees many other countries moving into a new vacuum, with China standing as a large economic reality in the region. And although China is not yet part of Middle East geopolitics, he believes the situation will change eventually.

“You have three important non-Arab actors – Russia, Iran and Turkey – moving into that vacuum as much as they possibly can,” Wechsler said. “In the old days, any attempts by those actors to move in would have to deal with traditional Arab powers in Cairo, Damascus and Baghdad. None of those places are in a position to provide the kind of leadership for the Arab world as they once did.

“So, what’s left is a growing coalition of countries that had not previously been large geopolitical actors in the region — and that’s the Gulf countries and Israel — that are in a position to block (the non-Arab actors’) movement.”

Suggesting that a Biden administration would be “wise” to encourage the phenomenon, Wechsler said he anticipated that this development would be continued and pushed.

Overall, the US is not perceived to be withdrawing from the Middle East due to its interests, but rather recalibrating, with hydrocarbons remaining a key energy component in the foreseeable future. “The US won’t give up control of that to Iran or China,” Salem said.

“The focus on weapons of mass destruction is a 21st century problem that the US can’t live with, and the problem of terrorism remains America’s number one national security issue. The US has a major military, economic, diplomatic and political presence in the Middle East, so it’s not going anywhere.”

Wechsler sees a potential US withdrawal from the region an “absolute disaster,” but believes Biden is the best candidate for this issue thanks to his decades-long experience in the field. “It’s a really important opportunity for those in the region, especially in the Gulf,” he said.

“Because if they can establish a modus vivendi with the Biden administration about what the right kind of rebalancing of roles and responsibilities are to protect our common interests in the region, how we can both project our common values, which will be much more important to Biden than to Trump, then they would have really set the stage for a longstanding, new understanding of the American role in the region.”

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Twitter: @CalineMalek


UN envoy condemns intense wave of Israeli airstrikes on Syria

Updated 56 min 43 sec ago
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UN envoy condemns intense wave of Israeli airstrikes on Syria

  • UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir O. Pedersen, denounced the strikes
  • “I strongly condemn Israel’s continued and escalating violations of Syria’s sovereignty, including multiple airstrikes in Damascus and other cities,” Pedersen wrote

HARASTA, Syria: The United Nations special envoy for the Syrian Arab Republic condemned Saturday an intense wave of Israeli airstrikes as Israel said its forces were on the ground in Syria to protect the Druze minority sect following days of clashes with Syrian pro-government gunmen.
The late Friday airstrikes were reported in different parts of the capital, Damascus, and its suburbs, as well as southern and central Syria, local Syrian media reported. They came hours after Israel’s air force struck near Syria’s presidential palace after warning Syrian authorities not to march toward villages inhabited by Syrian Druze.
Israel’s military spokesperson Avichay Adraee wrote on X the strikes targeted a military post and anti-aircraft units. He also said the Israeli troops in Southern Syria were “to prevent any hostile force from entering the area or Druze villages” and that five Syrian Druze wounded in the fighting were transported for treatment in Israel.
Syria’s state news agency, SANA, reported Saturday that four were wounded in central Syria, and that the airstrikes hit the eastern Damascus suburb of Harasta as well as the southern province of Daraa and the central province of Hama.
UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir O. Pedersen, denounced the strikes on X.


“I strongly condemn Israel’s continued and escalating violations of Syria’s sovereignty, including multiple airstrikes in Damascus and other cities,” Pedersen wrote Saturday, calling for an immediate cease of attacks and for Israel to stop “endangering Syrian civilians and to respect international law and Syria’s sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, and independence.”
Four days of clashes between pro-government gunmen and Druze fighters have left nearly 100 people dead and raised fears of deadly sectarian violence.
The clashes are the worst between forces loyal to the government and Druze fighters since the early December fall of President Bashar Assad, whose family ruled Syria with an iron grip for more than five decades.
Israel has its own Druze community and officials have said they would protect the Druze of Syria and warned Islamic militant groups from entering predominantly Druze areas. Israeli forces have carried out hundreds of airstrikes since Assad’s fall and captured a buffer zone along the Golan Heights.
The Druze religious sect is a minority group that began as a 10th-century offshoot of Ismailism, a branch of Shiite Islam. More than half of the roughly 1 million Druze worldwide live in Syria.
Most of the other Druze live in Lebanon and Israel, including in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast War and annexed in 1981. In Syria, they largely live in the southern Sweida province and some suburbs of Damascus, mainly in Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya to the south.


Groups fear Israeli proposal for controlling aid in Gaza will forcibly displace people

Updated 03 May 2025
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Groups fear Israeli proposal for controlling aid in Gaza will forcibly displace people

  • Israel has not detailed any of its proposals publicly or put them down in writing
  • “Israel has the responsibility to facilitate our work, not weaponize it,” said Jens Laerke, a spokesperson for the UN agency

TEL AVIV: Israel has blocked aid from entering Gaza for two months and says it won’t allow food, fuel, water or medicine into the besieged territory until it puts in place a system giving it control over the distribution.
But officials from the UN and aid groups say proposals Israel has floated to use its military to distribute vital supplies are untenable. These officials say they would allow military and political objectives to impede humanitarian goals, put restrictions on who is eligible to give and receive aid, and could force large numbers of Palestinians to move — which would violate international law.
Israel has not detailed any of its proposals publicly or put them down in writing. But aid groups have been documenting their conversations with Israeli officials, and The Associated Press obtained more than 40 pages of notes summarizing Israel’s proposals and aid groups’ concerns about them.
Aid groups say Israel shouldn’t have any direct role in distributing aid once it arrives in Gaza, and most are saying they will refuse to be part of any such system.
“Israel has the responsibility to facilitate our work, not weaponize it,” said Jens Laerke, a spokesperson for the UN agency that oversees the coordination of aid Gaza.
“The humanitarian community is ready to deliver, and either our work is enabled ... or Israel will have the responsibility to find another way to meet the needs of 2.1 million people and bear the moral and legal consequences if they fail to do so,” he said.
None of the ideas Israel has proposed are set in stone, aid workers say, but the conversations have come to a standstill as groups push back.
The Israeli military agency in charge of coordinating aid to Gaza, known as COGAT, did not respond to a request for comment and referred AP to the prime minister’s office. The prime minister’s office did not respond either.
Since the beginning of March, Israel has cut off Gaza from all imports, leading to what is believed to be the most severe shortage of food, medicine and other supplies in nearly 19 months of war with Hamas. Israel says the goal of its blockade is to pressure Hamas to free the remaining 59 hostages taken during its October 2023 attack on Israel that launched the war.
Israel says it must take control of aid distribution, arguing without providing evidence that Hamas and other militants siphon off supplies. Aid workers deny there is a significant diversion of aid to militants, saying the UN strictly monitors distribution.
Alarm among aid groups
One of Israel’s core proposals is a more centralized system — made up of five food distribution hubs — that would give it greater oversight, aid groups say.
Israel has proposed having all aid sent through a single crossing in southern Gaza and using the military or private security contractors to deliver it to these hubs, according to the documents shared with AP and aid workers familiar with the discussions. The distribution hubs would all be south of the Netzarim Corridor that isolates northern Gaza from the rest of the territory, the documents say.
One of the aid groups’ greatest fears is that requiring Palestinians to retrieve aid from a small number of sites — instead of making it available closer to where they live — would force families to move to get assistance. International humanitarian law forbids the forcible transfer of people.
Aid officials also worry that Palestinians could end up permanently displaced, living in “de facto internment conditions,” according to a document signed by 20 aid groups operating in Gaza.
The hubs also raise safety fears. With so few of them, huge crowds of desperate Palestinians will need to gather in locations that are presumably close to Israeli troops.
“I am very scared about that,” said Claire Nicolet, emergency coordinator for Doctors Without Borders.
There have been several occasions during the war when Israeli forces opened fire after feeling threatened as hungry Palestinians crowded around aid trucks. Israel has said that during those incidents, in which dozens died, many were trampled to death.
Given Gaza’s population of more than 2 million people, global standards for humanitarian aid would typically suggest setting up about 100 distribution sites — or 20 times as many as Israel is currently proposing — aid groups said.
Aside from the impractical nature of Israel’s proposals for distributing food, aid groups say Israel has yet to address how its new system would account for other needs, including health care and the repair of basic infrastructure, including water delivery.
“Humanitarian aid is more complex than food rations in a box that you pick up once a month,” said Gavin Kelleher, who worked in Gaza for the Norwegian Refugee Council. Aid boxes can weigh more than 100 pounds, and transportation within Gaza is limited, in part because of shortages of fuel.
Experts say Israel is concerned that if Hamas seizes aid, it will then make the population dependent on the armed group in order to access critical food supplies. It could use income from selling the aid to recruit more fighters, said Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at two Israeli think tanks, the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute.
Private military contractors
As aid groups push back against the idea of Israel playing a direct distribution role within Gaza, Israel has responded by exploring the possibility of outsourcing certain roles to private security contractors.
The aid groups say they are opposed to any armed or uniformed personnel that could potentially intimidate Palestinians or put them at risk.
In the notes seen by AP, aid groups said a US-based security firm, Safe Reach Solutions, had reached out seeking partners to test an aid distribution system around the Netzarim military corridor, just south of Gaza City, the territory’s largest.
Aid groups urged each other not to participate in the pilot program, saying it could set a damaging precedent that could be repeated in other countries facing crises.
Safe Reach Solutions did not respond to requests for a comment.
Whether Israel distributes the aid or employs private contractors to it, aid groups say that would infringe on humanitarian principles, including impartiality and independence.
A spokesperson for the EU Commission said private companies aren’t considered eligible humanitarian aid partners for its grants. The EU opposes any changes that would lead to Israel seizing full control of aid in Gaza, the spokesperson said.
The US State Department declined to comment on ongoing negotiations.
Proposals to restrict who can deliver and receive aid
Another concern is an Israeli proposal that would allow authorities to determine if Palestinians were eligible for assistance based on “opaque procedures,” according to aid groups’ notes.
Aid groups, meanwhile, have been told by Israel that they will need to re-register with the government and provide personal information about their staffers. They say Israel has told them that, going forward, it could bar organizations for various reasons, including criticism of Israel, or any activities it says promote the “delegitimization” of Israel.
Arwa Damon, founder of the International Network for Aid, Relief and Assistance, says Israel has increasingly barred aid workers from Gaza who had previously been allowed in. In February, Damon was denied access to Gaza, despite having entered four times previously since the war began. Israel gave no reason for barring her, she said.
Aid groups are trying to stay united on a range of issues, including not allowing Israel to vet staff or people receiving aid. But they say they’re being backed into a corner.
“For us to work directly with the military in the delivery of aid is terrifying,” said Bushra Khalidi, Oxfam’s policy lead for Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory. “That should worry every single Palestinian in Gaza, but also every humanitarian worker.”


Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak resigns

Updated 03 May 2025
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Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak resigns

  • Mubarak said he had faced “lots of difficulties”, including being unable to reshuffle the government

Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, the prime minister of Yemen's internationally recognized government, said on Saturday he had submitted his resignation.
In a statement, Mubarak said he had faced “lots of difficulties”, including being unable to reshuffle the government.


Attack on hospital run by Doctors Without Borders leaves at least 4 dead in South Sudan

Updated 20 min 37 sec ago
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Attack on hospital run by Doctors Without Borders leaves at least 4 dead in South Sudan

  • Fangak County Commissioner, Biel Butros Biel, told AP that at least four people were killed in the aerial attack, including a 9-month-old child
  • The attack caused significant damage to the hospital’s pharmacy, destroying all medical supplies

JUBA: Doctors Without Borders said Saturday that its facility in a remote part of South Sudan was targeted in an aerial bombardment that resulted in some casualties.
The hospital is located in a northern town known as Old Fangak, some 475 kilometers (295 miles) outside of Juba, the capital.
The medical charity, known by its French initials, MSF, released a statement on X condemning the attack on its hospital, said to be the only source of medical care for 40,000 residents, including many people displaced by flooding.
It called the attack “a clear violation of international law.”
Fangak County Commissioner, Biel Butros Biel, told The Associated Press that at least four people were killed in the aerial attack, including a 9-month-old child. He added that at least 25 people were wounded, though an assessment of the damage was ongoing.

It was not immediately clear why the facility was targeted, apparently by government troops. A spokesman for South Sudan’s military could not be reached for comment.
A spokesperson for MSF said their hospital in Old Fangak was hit by airstrikes shortly after 4 a.m. on Saturday. They spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the press.
The attack caused significant damage to the hospital’s pharmacy, destroying all medical supplies. There was no definitive word on casualties.
Additional strikes occurred hours later near the Old Fangak market, causing widespread panic and displacement of civilians, according to several eyewitnesses.
Old Fangak is one of several major towns in Fangak county, an ethnically Nuer part of the country that has been historically associated with the opposition party loyal to Riek Machar, South Sudan’s first vice president, who is now under house arrest for alleged subversion.
The town has been ravaged since 2019 by flooding that has left few options for people to escape the fighting. One eyewitness, Thomas Mot, said that some left by boat, while others fled on foot into flood waters.
The attack on the hospital is the latest escalation in a government-led assault on opposition groups across the country.
Since March, government troops backed by soldiers from Uganda have conducted dozens of airstrikes targeting areas in neighboring Upper Nile State.


UN chief condemns Israeli strikes on Syria

Updated 03 May 2025
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UN chief condemns Israeli strikes on Syria

  • Antonio Guterres ‘alarmed’ over reports of sectarian violence around Damascus, Suwayda
  • UN commission ‘deeply troubled’ after more than 100 people were killed in clashes this week

NEW YORK CITY: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday condemned repeated Israeli airstrikes on Syria as well as growing sectarian violence around Damascus and Suwayda.

The condemnation came after more than 100 people were killed in clashes in the Syrian Arab Republic over the past week.

The violence has taken place in two predominantly Druze suburbs of the capital, Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya, as well as in the southern Druze stronghold of Suwayda.

Guterres “has been monitoring with alarm the reports of violence in the suburbs of Damascus and in the south of Syria, including reports of civilian casualties and assassination of local administration figures,” UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Friday.

The secretary-general condemned “all violence against civilians” and acts that “could risk inflaming sectarian tensions.”

Amid the sectarian clashes, Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Syrian targets, in what it described as an attempt to protect the country’s Druze minority.

Early on Friday, it bombed an area near the Presidential Palace in Damascus. Later that day, it targeted the Damascus, Hama and Daraa countryside, killing one civilian in the former and injuring four people in Hama, Syrian state news agency SANA reported.

Israel acknowledged the strikes, which it claimed targeted “a military site, anti-aircraft cannons and surface-to-air missile infrastructure.”

It followed a warning by Tel Aviv earlier this week that it would attack sites controlled by Syria’s new government if further sectarian clashes involving the Druze minority did not stop.

Guterres condemned Israel’s violation of Syria’s sovereignty and said it was “essential” that the attacks stop. He called on all parties to “cease all hostilities, exercise utmost restraint and avoid further escalation.”

Syria’s interim authorities under the government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa must “transparently and openly” investigate all violations of peace in a bid to uphold their commitment to “dialogue and cooperation within the framework of national unity,” Guterres added.

On Friday, experts appointed by the UN Human Rights Council on the Commission of Inquiry on Syria described the surge in sectarian violence as “deeply troubling.”

The commission was established in 2011, and its three commissioners serve in an independent capacity.

“The spread of discriminatory incitement and hate speech, including through social media, is fueling violence and risks threating Syria’s fragile social cohesion,” the commission said on Friday. “While the situation remains fluid and an agreement has reportedly been reached between prominent leaders in Suwayda and the authorities in Damascus, the commission underscores that the interim government remains responsible for ensuring the protection of all civilians in areas under its control. Impunity for grave violations has in the past been a consistent driver of Syria’s conflict and must not be allowed to persist.”

The commission also highlighted the risk posed by Israeli airstrikes, as well as Tel Aviv’s continued expansion of its occupation in the Golan Heights.

Israel’s attempts to “divide various Syrian communities risks further destabilizing Syria,” it said.

“Syria’s recent history should serve as a reminder that external interventions have often led to increased violence, displacement and fragmentation.”