KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 7 percent amid economic recovery, experts say, as the central bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy for the next two months on Monday.
The SBP slashed its key policy rate from 13.25 percent to 7 percent between March 17 and June 25 to support the economy hit by the coronavirus outbreak.
"The central bank is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged because the COVID situation prevails and we believe that the government will not like to increase rates amid the economic recovery," Samiullah Tariq, head of research at Pakistan Kuwait Investment, told Arab News on Sunday.
According to a poll conducted by Topline Securities, majority of top-notch financial market participants also believe the rate will remain the same.
"Out of 72 responses received, 87.5 percent are of the view that rate will remain unchanged, 7 percent voted for a rate increase of 25 bps and above,” Muhammad Sohail, chief executive of Topline Securities said.
Another brokerage firm, Arif Habib Limited (AHL), also predicts that the monetary stance would not change.
“We expect the SBP to keep policy rates unchanged at 7 percent in the upcoming monetary policy statement," AHL said in a report, forecasting that inflation is likely to ease in coming months.
The central bank forecasts that the average inflation rate would be between 7 percent and 9 percent during the current fiscal year.
Pakistani industrialists, however, are calling for a further reduction of interest to 5 percent, saying it is necessary for the growth momentum and industrialization in the country.
"Our economy was on a ventilator before that coronavirus outbreak and after the situation turned worst the unemployment has substantially increased and now the government is taking long-term measures and it seems that the economic situation is improving," Sheikh Sultan Rehman, vice president of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), told Arab News.
"There are signs of economic recovery and to keep the momentum continue we demand that the interest should be reduced to 5 percent and gradually to around 3 percent for long-term growth," he said.
Economists say that in the current global and domestic situation, monetary policy has to ensure that financing conditions remain favorable.
"An uncertain global recovery is pushing central banks to actively ensure that monetary policy remains geared to financing the whole economy. In addition, lower inflation has given room for near zero rates globally," said Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, former advisor at the Ministry of Finance.
He added that with slowing growth and higher food inflation the task is complex for Pakistan.
The central bank expects that economic growth would be between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent as compared with the negative growth of 0.4 percent recorded in the previous fiscal year. Pakistan had recorded negative growth for the first time since 1952.
"Monetary policy has to ensure financing conditions remain extremely favorable. Beyond just lower funding costs it is crucial to recalibrate instruments to counteract the negative impact of funding measures for containment of the virus," Dr. Najeeb said.
Pakistan’s central bank likely to keep interest rate unchanged
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Pakistan’s central bank likely to keep interest rate unchanged
- SBP slashed its key policy rate from 13.25 percent to 7 percent between March 17 and June 25 to help the economy hit by COVID-19
- Industrialists are calling for a further reduction to 5 percent to support the growth momentum and industrialization
Pakistani deputy PM to attend UAE’s Sir Bani Yas Forum today
- Three-day summit will host top decision-makers, experts for debates on regional issues
- Ongoing war in Gaza is expected to feature prominently in discussions at Sir Bani Yas Forum
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar will attend the three-day 15th Sir Bani Yas Forum in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from today, Friday, the foreign office in Islamabad said, with the ongoing war in Gaza expected to be at the center of discussions.
The three-day annual retreat will bring together top decision-makers and experts to debate pressing Middle Eastern issues such as regional peace and security and economic transformation.
“At the invitation of His Highness Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar will participate in the 15th Sir Bani Yas Forum being held from Nov. 15-17 in the UAE,” foreign office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said at a weekly news briefing in Islamabad.
“At the forum, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister will engage in high-level dialogue with global leaders and experts addressing critical issues of regional security, economic cooperation and sustainable development.”
Dar will highlight Pakistan’s “strategic perspective on fostering diplomatic solutions to complex regional challenges and advancing collective prosperity,” Baloch added.
The war in the Gaza Strip is expected to feature prominently in discussions at the Sir Bani Yas Forum.
Israel invaded the enclave last year after Hamas-led gunmen attacked communities in southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people, according to Israeli authorities, and abducting more than 250 as hostages. Since then, the Israeli campaign has killed more than 43,500 people, according to Gaza health authorities, and destroyed much of the enclave’s infrastructure, forcing most of the 2.3 million population to move several times.
The issue was also at the center of the agenda at the recently concluded Joint Arab-Islamic Summit hosted by Saudi Arabia, with Baloch welcoming the resolution adopted by the summit, which, among other issues, called on the UN Security Council to impose an arms embargo on Israel and asked it to set up an independent investigation committee to investigate Israeli crimes including genocide, forced disappearances, torture and ethnic cleansing.
Pakistan restores train service from restive Balochistan province after bombing at train station
- At least 24 people were killed in a bomb blast on Saturday at a railway station in the city of Quetta
- In August, over 50 people were killed in Balochistan in militants attacks on police stations, railway lines, highways.
QUETTA: A train service between the southwestern city of Quetta and Peshawar in Pakistan’s northwest resumed on Friday after being shut for four days following a deadly bombing at a railway station.
At least 24 people were killed and more than 40 injured in a bomb blast on Saturday at a railway station in the city of Quetta in the province of Balochistan, which is grappling with a surge in strikes by separatist ethnic militants that has raised security concerns for projects aiming to develop the province’s untapped mineral resources.
Imran Hayat, Divisional Superintendent of Pakistan Railways Quetta Division, said train operations from Balochistan to the rest of the country had been restored, with the Quetta-Peshawar bound Jaffar Express departing from Quetta Railway Station on Friday morning amid tight security at the railway station.
“We had suspended our service for four days following the threat of attacks on the train service in Balochistan,” Hayat told Arab News.
“Today, the Quetta-Peshawar bound Jaffar Express departed from Quetta Railway Station at 9am and we have resumed service for Karachi and Chaman amid stringent security measures across the railway station.”
The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist militant group, claimed responsibility for Saturday’s attack.
The BLA seeks independence for Balochistan, a province of about 15 million people that borders Afghanistan to the north and Iran to the west. The BLA is the biggest of several ethnic insurgent groups battling the government, saying it unfairly exploits the province’s rich gas and mineral resources. The government denies this.
In August, over 50 people were killed in Balochistan after separatist militants attacked police stations, railway lines and highways.
The assaults in August were the most widespread in years by militants fighting a decades-long insurgency to win secession for the province, home to major China-led projects such as a port and a gold and copper mine.
Pakistan deploys mobile air monitoring stations in Lahore amid toxic smog
- Each station costs over $322,000, equipped for real-time air quality data
- Smog has enveloped Lahore, Pakistan’s cultural capital, since last month
ISLAMABAD: Authorities in Pakistan’s populous Punjab province have deployed five mobile air quality monitoring stations in Pakistan’s eastern Lahore city, each costing over Rs90 million ($322,000), amid worsening smog conditions, state-run media reported on Thursday.
Lahore, consistently ranked as the world’s most polluted city in live IQAir rankings in recent weeks, is facing hazardous air quality due to cold atmospheric conditions trapping dust, vehicle emissions and smoke from illegally burned fires.
The toxic smog, which has spread to 17 other districts in Punjab, has caused over 40,000 cases of respiratory illnesses this month, according to health officials, prompting authorities to close schools until November 17.
“The Punjab government has established five mobile air quality monitoring stations in Lahore to track the city’s air quality index,” Radio Pakistan reported.
It quoted the Punjab Environment Protection Department official Farooq Alam as saying the mobile stations had been placed in highly polluted areas, such as the Defense Housing Authority, Model Town, Gulberg, Bhatta Chowk and near Shimla Pahari.
Alam told Radio Pakistan that “each mobile monitoring station costs over ninety million rupees,” adding that they are equipped with advanced technology to collect real-time air quality data.
The Punjab administration official, however, did not mention any sustainable solution to the worsening smog condition, which has become a regular feature during the winter season.
Meanwhile, Punjab’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority has urged people to wear face masks as a precautionary measure against smog and to avoid venturing out unnecessarily.
The United Nations children’s agency has warned that the health of 11 million children in Punjab is at risk due to air pollution.
According to a study by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute last year, pollution could reduce life expectancy in the region by more than five years.
New polio case reported in Pakistan, taking 2024 tally to 49
- In early 1990s, Pakistan reported around 20,000 cases annually but in 2018 the number dropped to eight cases
- This year, 24 cases reported in Balochistan, 13 in Sindh, 10 in KP and one each in Punjab and Islamabad
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s anti-polio program said on Friday the country had reported a new case of the polio virus in the southwestern Balochistan province, taking the nationwide tally to 49 this year.
A new case was reported from Jaffarabad in Balochistan, according to updated figures on the website of the Pakistan Polio Eradication Program.
Pakistan, along with neighboring Afghanistan, remains the last polio-endemic country in the world. Starting from late 2018, Pakistan saw a resurgence of cases and increased spread of polio, highlighting the fragility of gains achieved in the preceding three years.
“Genetic sequencing of the samples collected from the child is under process,” the polio program said in a statement.
This year, 24 cases have been reported in Balochistan, 13 in Sindh, 10 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and one each in Punjab and the federal capital of Islamabad. In the early 1990s, Pakistan reported around 20,000 cases annually but in 2018 the number dropped to eight cases. Six cases were reported in 2023 and only one in 2021.
Pakistan’s polio eradication program began in 1994, and the number of cases has declined dramatically since then.
But Pakistan continues to face challenges in its fight against polio, including militancy, with polio workers regularly targeted by attacks, particularly in the northwestern KP province.
The polio program has adapted to respond to climate disasters such as floods, but continues to face disruptions. There are also gaps in supplementary immunization activities, especially in areas where the virus is still present.
Pakistan calls for renewed international support for UN agency for Palestinian refugees
- Israel’s parliament voted last month to ban UNRWA from operating within Israel and occupied East Jerusalem
- Almost all of Gaza’s population of more than two million people are dependent on aid and services from UNRWA
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Thursday urged the international community to renew its support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), following the Israeli parliament passing a law last month that will ban the body from operating in the country when it takes effect in late January.
Israel’s parliament voted last month to ban the UNRWA from operating within Israel and occupied East Jerusalem, crippling its ability to work in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Almost all of Gaza’s population of more than two million people are dependent on aid and services from the agency.
The move has faced widespread condemnation, with UNRWA warning the new law could see aid supply chains “fall apart” in the coming weeks. Israel has defended the move, repeating its allegation that a number of the agency’s staff were involved in Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks last year, which killed 1,200 people.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has told Israel that replacing UNRWA in Gaza and the West Bank would be Israel’s responsibility as the occupying power.
In a statement delivered at the UN Fourth Committee meeting, First Secretary at the Pakistani Mission to the UN, Ansar Shah, underlined the importance of “concrete measures to ensure that UNRWA remains operational and continues its critical humanitarian work for Palestinian refugees.”
“He called on all UN member states to provide political, financial, and operational support to UNRWA and stressed that sustaining and expanding the agency’s operations is essential to mitigating the harmful effects of Israel’s actions in the region,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan said.
“Pakistan strongly condemns the Israeli attempts to dismantle UNRWA’s operations, which is a blatant violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the provisional measures set by the International Court of Justice (ICJ).”
Shah said the international community must step in to prevent the collapse of UNRWA, which would leave millions of Palestinians without access to essential services like education, health care, and social support.
Founded in 1949, UNRWA works in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, initially caring for the 700,000 Palestinians who were forced from or fled their homes after the creation of the state of Israel. Over the decades, the agency has grown to become the biggest UN agency operating in Gaza.
Since the war in Gaza began in October last year, the agency says it has distributed food parcels to almost 1.9 million people and also offered nearly six million medical consultations across the enclave over the course of the conflict.
More than 200 UNRWA staff have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 2023 in the course of those duties, according to the agency.
