‘Winter with sanctions’ is coming: How Turkey will react

French President Emmanuel Macron, center, speaks with Czech Republic PM Andrej Babis, left, and Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki at a EU summit, Brussels, Dec. 10, 2020. (AP Photo)
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Updated 11 December 2020
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‘Winter with sanctions’ is coming: How Turkey will react

  • Bloc delays further sanctions against Ankara but warned of imminent punitive measures if it does not reconsider its contested moves
  • Turkey only recently withdrew its Oruc Reis survey vessel back to port in order not to anger Brussels too much before the summit

ANKARA: The months-long consultations between EU member states over Turkey’s actions in the eastern Mediterranean ended early on Friday with the bloc delaying further sanctions against Ankara but warning of imminent punitive measures if it does not reconsider its contested moves. 

The leaders invited the EU members’ ministers to adopt additional listings for sanctions over Turkey’s “unauthorized drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean.” 

Turkey dominated the European Summit agenda of finding common ground over the recent escalation in the Mediterranean where Turkey has insisted on exploration for gas resources including extended continental shelves that are also claimed by Cyprus and Greece. 

“Regrettably, Turkey has engaged in unilateral actions and provocations and escalated its rhetoric against the EU, EU member states and European leaders,” EU leaders said in a statement.

The leaders also called on the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to prepare a report about the state of EU-Turkey relations on the political, economic and trade fronts and to suggest a way of proceeding, including the expansion of sanctions. The report is not expected to be submitted until March next year. 

The Greek side, pushing for economic sanctions against Turkey’s already weakened economy, however, asserts that EU moves on proceeding with sanctions are closely linked with the credibility of the bloc. 

Turkey only recently withdrew its Oruc Reis survey vessel back to port in order not to anger Brussels too much before the summit — a move that was ridiculed by the European Council President Charles Michel as the “play of cat and mouse.” 

Last year, the EU prepared a sanctions program to punish “illegal” exploration activities in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, including the freezing of assets of the people and companies involved. 

So far, only two senior officials of Turkey’s state-run Turkish Petroleum Corporation have been put on the sanctions list, despite an expectation that more people will be added to it. 

Some sanctions in the past — such as the threat of freezing accession talks — have only pushed Ankara to play the refugee card as a bargaining chip, where it threatens to open the gates for letting refugees into European countries. 

For Karol Wasilewski, an analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs, the EU decision was totally expected. 

“On one hand, the EU had to do something because its credibility was at stake as during the last few months Turkey did not do anything to appease European decision-makers. On the other, with the election of Joe Biden to the US administration there is a greater chance for a transatlantic approach toward Turkey which may be more effective,” he told Arab News. 

“With those two factors combined, we have the only rational result: Minor sanctions and postponement of much more important decisions to March 2021 when the EU will be able to at least check where the Biden administration stands on Turkey,” Wasilewski added. 

But experts think that the cat-and-mouse game will continue with no major change on the Turkish side.

“Till March, we will probably witness the same actions from Turkey: After initial anger because of the minor sanctions, there will be a mixture of propaganda that Turkey wants better relations with the EU, provocative acts toward Greece and Cyprus, and, of course, some acts which the Turks would like to present as concessions such as the temporary withdrawal of the Oruc Reis,” Wasilewski said. 

In the meantime, another sanctions package is coming from the US. Washington is preparing to execute its long-speculated sanctions against Turkey over its acquisition last year of the Russian S-400 air defense system, Reuters reported on Thursday. 

The potential sanctions were harshly condemned by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who called them an act of “great disrespect.” 

Turkey’s insistence on testing in December the Russian ground-to-air system despite being urged by its NATO allies against the move is considered the final straw because the missile system poses a serious threat to the alliance’s military equipment and its confidentiality. 

Last year, US officials removed Turkey from Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jet program and reiterated that Turkey risked sanctions if it ever activated the missile system. 

The US House of Representatives recently passed a defense bill (the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA) by a large majority to make it obligatory to enforce sanctions on Ankara for its possession of the Russian-made missiles.  

This year’s bill includes a provision requiring the president to impose at least five out of 12 sanctions on Turkey — from symbolic ones to the most severe — within 30 days of the enactment of the NDAA. 

The ball is now in the Senate’s court where key Republican lawmakers have already expressed their backing for punitive measures against Turkey.

The move is expected to not only undermine further the already fragile relations between the two NATO allies ahead of the incoming Joe Biden administration but to weaken the Turkish lira amid an economic downturn due to the pandemic-related recession and depleted foreign reserves.

The sanctions, if implemented on a wider scale, are expected to mainly target the Turkish presidency of defense industries and its president Ismail Demir. 

According to Max Hoffman, a Turkey analyst from the Washington-based Center for American Progress, at first glance it seems like a response calibrated to convey to Ankara that the US takes this issue very seriously and is willing to go further. 

“But Washington would much prefer for Erdogan to reconsider and both sides to avoid an escalatory spiral for the moment,” he told Arab News. 

For Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the imposition of CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions against Turkey sooner rather than later would have a positive aspect in eliminating uncertainty about the scope of the sanctions, which already deters American companies from doing business with Turkish counterparts. 

“Once the scope of the sanctions is clear, cooperation in other areas can continue. It would also be good if the sanctions are imposed before Biden’s inauguration so that sanctions won’t be the first thing the new US administration does regarding Turkey,” he told Arab News. 

Separately, outgoing Syria envoy James Jeffrey said in a recent interview that Erdogan “won’t back down until you show him teeth.” 

“You have to be willing, when Erdogan goes too far, to really clamp down on him and to make sure he understands this in advance,” he said of how the new US administration should approach Ankara.


Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai to visit native Pakistan for girls’ summit

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Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai to visit native Pakistan for girls’ summit

  • Nobel peace prize laureate Malala Yousafzai will attend a summit on girls’ education hosted by her native Pakistan, where she was nearly killed by militants as a schoolgirl
ISLAMABAD: Nobel peace prize laureate Malala Yousafzai will attend a summit on girls’ education hosted by her native Pakistan, where she was nearly killed by militants as a schoolgirl.
Yousafzai was evacuated from the country in 2012 after being shot by the Pakistan Taliban, who were enraged by her activism, and she has returned to the country only a handful of times since.
“I am excited to join Muslim leaders from around the world for a critical conference on girls’ education,” she said Friday in a post on X.
“On Sunday, I will speak about protecting rights for all girls to go to school, and why leaders must hold the Taliban accountable for their crimes against Afghan women & girls.”
A spokesperson for her Malala Fund charity confirmed she will attend the summit in person.
The two-day summit will be held in the capital Islamabad on Saturday and Sunday, focusing on girls’ education in Muslim communities.

Zelensky and Austin use their final meeting to press Trump to keep supporting Ukraine

Updated 16 min 11 sec ago
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Zelensky and Austin use their final meeting to press Trump to keep supporting Ukraine

  • Austin warned that to cease military support now “will only invite more aggression, chaos and war”
  • President-elect Donald Trump’s pronouncements about pushing for a quick end to the war and his kinship with Putin have triggered concern among allies

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin used their final meeting Thursday to press the incoming Trump administration not to give up on Kyiv’s fight, with Austin warning that to cease military support now “will only invite more aggression, chaos and war.”
“We’ve come such a long way that it would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now and not keep building on the defense coalitions we’ve created,” Zelensky said. “No matter what’s going on in the world, everyone wants to feel sure that their country will not just be erased off the map.”
President-elect Donald Trump’s pronouncements about pushing for a quick end to the war, his kinship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and uncertainty over whether he will support further military aid to Ukraine have triggered concern among allies.
The Biden administration has worked to provide Ukraine with as much military support as it can, including approving a new $500 million package of weapons and relaxing restrictions on missile strikes into Russia, with the aim of putting Ukraine in the strongest position possible for any future negotiations to end the war.
Austin doubled down on Zelensky’s appeal, saying “no responsible leader will let Putin have his way.”
And while Austin acknowledged he has no idea what Trump will do, he said the international leaders gathered Thursday at Ramstein Air Base talked about the need to continue the mission.
The leaders were attending a gathering of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a consortium of about 50 partner nations that Austin brought together months after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 to coordinate weapons support.
“I’m leaving this contact group not with a farewell but with a challenge. The coalition to support Ukraine must not flinch. It must not falter. And it must not fail,” Austin said during his final press conference. “Ukraine’s survival is on the line. But so is all of our security.”
Some discussed what they would do if the US backed away from its support for Kyiv, if the contact group would assume a new shape under one of its major European contributors, such as Germany. Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said his country and several other European nations are discussing options.
Austin said the continuation of the group is essential, calling it “the arsenal of Ukrainian democracy” and “the most consequential global coalition in more than 30 years.”
President Joe Biden was to have his final face-to-face meeting with Zelensky in the coming days in Rome, but he canceled the trip because of the devastating fires in California.
Pistorius said he intends to travel to the US shortly after Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration to meet his new counterpart to discuss the issue.
“It’s clear a new chapter starts for Europe and the entire world just 11 days from now,” and it will require even more cooperation, Zelensky said.
Ukraine has launched a second offensive in Russia’s Kursk region and is facing a barrage of long-range missiles and ongoing advances from Russia as both sides seek to put themselves in the strongest negotiating position possible before Trump takes office.
Zelensky called the Kursk offensive “one of our biggest wins,” which has cost Russia and North Korea, which sent soldiers to help Russia, thousands of troops. Zelensky said the offensive resulted in North Korea suffering 4,000 casualties, but US estimates put the number lower at about 1,200.
Zelensky said Ukraine will continue to need air defense systems and munitions to defend against Russia’s missile attacks.
The latest US aid package includes missiles for air defense and for fighter jets, sustainment equipment for F-16s, armored bridging systems and small arms and ammunition.
The weapons are funded through presidential drawdown authority, meaning they can be pulled directly from US stockpiles, and the Pentagon is pushing to get them into Ukraine before the end of the month.
Unless there is another aid package approved, the Biden administration will leave about $3.85 billion in congressionally authorized funding for any future arms shipments to Ukraine. It will be up to Trump to decide whether or not to spend it.
“If Putin swallows Ukraine, his appetite will only grow,” Austin told the contact group leaders. “If tyrants learn that aggression pays, we will only invite even more aggression, chaos, and war.”
In the months since Trump’s election victory, Europeans have grappled with what that change will mean in terms of their fight to keep Russia from further advancing, and whether the post-World War II Western alliance will hold.
In recent days, Trump has threatened to take Greenland, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark — a NATO member — by military means if necessary. Such action would upend all norms of the historic NATO alliance and possibly require members to come to the defense of Denmark.
Austin declined to comment on Trump’s threat, but Pistorius called it “diplomatically astonishing.”
“Alliances are alliances, to stay alliances. Regardless of who is governing countries,” Pistorius said. “I’m quite optimistic that remarks like that won’t really influence US politics after the 20th of January.”
Globally, countries including the US have ramped up weapons production as the Ukraine war exposed that all of those stockpiles were woefully unprepared for a major conventional land war.
The US has provided about $66 billion of the total aid since February 2022 and has been able to deliver most of that total — between 80 percent and 90 percent — already to Ukraine.


Far from Hollywood’s wealth, Los Angeles fire survivors feel forgotten

Updated 20 min 45 sec ago
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Far from Hollywood’s wealth, Los Angeles fire survivors feel forgotten

  • Altadena residents fear unequal resource allocation post-fire
  • Concerns over insurance payouts and gentrification rise

ALTADENA: In the close-knit Los Angeles suburb of Altadena, where rows of neat bungalows once nestled in the shadow of the San Gabriel mountains, smoldering ruins and the skeletal frames of burnt out cars now lie.
While the fires that have devastated celebrity neighborhoods near Malibu have caught the world’s attention, a similar size blaze in Eaton Canyon, north of Los Angeles, has ravaged Altadena, a racially and economically diverse community.
Black and Latino families have lived in Altadena for generations and the suburb is also popular with younger artists and engineers working at the nearby NASA rocket lab, who were attracted by the small town vibe and access to nature.
Many residents told Reuters they were concerned that government resources would be channeled toward high-profile areas popular with A-Listers, while insurance companies might shortchange less affluent households that don’t have the financial means to contest fire claims.
“They’re not going to give you the value of your house ... if they do you really have to fight for it,” said Kay Young, 63, her eyes welling up with tears as she stared at a sprawl of smoking rubble, the remnants of a home that has been in her family for generations.
Inez Moore, 40, whose family home in Altadena was destroyed by the fire, said communities like theirs would likely suffer financially more than wealthier suburbs because many people don’t have the resources or experience to navigate complex bureaucratic systems.
“You’re going to have some folks who are not going to get as much as they deserve, and some folks who may get more than actually they need,” said Moore, a lecturer at California State University.
Moore, Young and several other residents told Reuters they didn’t see any fire engines in Altadena in the early hours of Wednesday when they fled flames engulfing their community, fueling a resentment that their neighborhood wasn’t a priority.
“We didn’t get help here. I don’t know where everybody was,” said Jocelyn Tavares, 32, as her sister and daughter dug through the smoking debris of a life upended — a child’s bicycle half-melted, a solitary cup miraculously spared from the flames.
Los Angeles County Fire Department did not respond to a request for comment about the residents’ complaints.
REBUILD
Since breaking out on Tuesday night, the Eaton Fire has killed at least five people and grown to 13,690 acres as of Thursday night, consuming much of the northern half of Altadena, an unincorporated community of some 40,000 people.
As late as 1960, Altadena was almost entirely white. As new highways built in urban renewal projects tore apart Los Angeles neighborhoods, African American families began buying homes in what remained for decades a relatively affordable community.
Residents told Reuters they paid around $50,000 for a three-bedroom home in Altadena in the 1970s. The same house would cost more than $1 million today.
By 1990, nearly 40 percent of residents were Black. Today, about 18 percent are Black, 49 percent white and 27 percent are Hispanic or Latino, according to the US Census Bureau.
Altadena residents voiced concerns that the area may become more gentrified if families who have lived here for generations could not secure insurance payouts to cover the cost to rebuild a home that they bought cheap decades ago.
Despite the widespread wreckage, many locals were upbeat about the community rising from the ashes, sharing tales of narrow escapes and memories of decades spent growing up together with neighbors who were now sharing in the disaster.
“There are rows of us that went to school together,” said Young, gesturing to a vast stretch of scorched foundations.
Michael McCarthy, 68, a clerk in the City of Los Angeles, said his home was saved by a neighbor who risked his life by staying behind after everyone else had fled, using a hose to spray water on their roofs.
“I know this community will rebuild, everybody knows everybody here, everybody loves everybody,” said McCarthy, who is due to retire this year.
“Well, I got a new job now, and that’s putting all this back together and do what I can for the neighborhood.”


Los Angeles fire deaths at 10 as National Guard called in

Updated 37 min 26 sec ago
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Los Angeles fire deaths at 10 as National Guard called in

  • A vast firefighting operation continued into the night, bolstered by water-dropping helicopters thanks to a temporary lull in winds
  • With such a huge area scorched by the fires, evacuees feared not enough was being done and some were taking matters into their own hands

LOS ANGELES, United States: Massive wildfires that engulfed whole neighborhoods and displaced thousands in Los Angeles have killed at least 10 people, authorities said, as California’s National Guard soldiers readied to hit the streets to help quell disorder.

News of the growing toll, announced late Thursday by the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner, came as swaths of the United States’ second-largest city lay in ruins.

A vast firefighting operation continued into the night, bolstered by water-dropping helicopters thanks to a temporary lull in winds, even as new fires continued to spring up.

With reports of looting, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said a nighttime curfew was planned, and the state’s National Guard was on hand to patrol affected areas.

Governor Gavin Newsom said the service members were part of a thousands-strong deployment of state personnel.

“We’re throwing everything at our disposal – including our National Guard service members – to protect communities in the days to come,” he said.

“And to those who would seek to take advantage of evacuated communities, let me be clear: looting will not be tolerated.”

Luna said his officers were patrolling evacuation zones and would arrest anyone who was not supposed to be there.

But with such a huge area scorched by the fires, evacuees feared not enough was being done and some were taking matters into their own hands.

Nicholas Norman mounted an armed vigil at his home after seeing suspicious characters in the middle of the night.

“I did the classic American thing: I went and got my shotgun and I sat out there, and put a light on so they knew people were there,” he said.

The biggest of the multiple blazes has ripped through almost 20,000 acres (8,800 hectares) of the upscale Pacific Palisades neighborhood, while another fire around Altadena has torched 13,700 acres.

Firefighters said they were starting to get a handle on the Pacific Palisades blaze, with six percent of its perimeter contained – meaning it can’t spread any further in that direction.

But after a lull, winds were returning and new fires continued to erupt.

One flared near Calabasas and the wealthy Hidden Hills enclave, home to celebrities like Kim Kardashian, late Thursday.

The Kenneth Fire exploded to almost 1,000 acres within hours, forcing more people from their homes, with over 180,000 now displaced.

US President Joe Biden told a White House briefing he had pledged extra federal funds and resources to help the state cope with “the most... devastating fire in California’s history.”

Unlike Tuesday when the multi-pronged disaster roared to life and 160-kilometer-an-hour winds grounded all aircraft, firefighters were able to keep up a steady stream of sorties.

But one Super Scooper – an amphibious aircraft that dumps hundreds of gallons of water at a time – was grounded after colliding with a drone.

Although no one was hurt, the Federal Aviation Authority said it was probing the incident, and warned anyone flying drones in fire areas could be jailed for a year.

Some of those forced out of their homes began to return Thursday to find scenes of devastation.

Kalen Astoor, a 36-year-old paralegal, said her mother’s home had been spared by the inferno’s seemingly random and chaotic destruction. But many other homes had not.

“The view now is of death and destruction,” she said. “I don’t know if anyone can come back for a while.”

Meanwhile an AFP overflight of the Pacific Palisades and Malibu – some of the most expensive real estate in the world and home to celebrities like Paris Hilton, Anthony Hopkins and Billy Crystal – revealed desolation.

On highly coveted Malibu oceanfront plots skeletal frames of buildings indicated the lavish scale of what has been destroyed.

Multi-million dollar mansions have vanished entirely, seemingly swept into the Pacific Ocean by the force of the fire.

In the Palisades, grids of roads that were until Tuesday lined with stunning homes now resemble makeshift cemeteries.

For millions of others in the area, life was disrupted: schools were closed, hundreds of thousands were without power and major events were canceled or, in the case of an NFL playoff game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Minnesota Vikings, moved somewhere else.

Meteorologists warn that “critical” windy and dry conditions, though abated, are not over.

A National Weather Service bulletin said “significant fire growth” remained likely “with ongoing or new fires” into Friday.

Wildfires occur naturally, but scientists say human-caused climate change is altering weather and changing the dynamics of the blazes.

Two wet years in Southern California have given way to a very dry one, leaving ample fuel dry and primed to burn.


India readies for mammoth Hindu festival of 400 million pilgrims

Updated 59 min 18 sec ago
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India readies for mammoth Hindu festival of 400 million pilgrims

  • The organizers say the scale of preparations for the Kumbh Mela is akin to setting up a temporary country from scratch
  • Festival is rooted in Hindu mythology, a battle between deities and demons for pitcher containing nectar of immortality

NEW DELHI: The world’s largest gathering of humanity begins in India on Monday with the opening of the Kumbh Mela, a six-week Hindu festival organizers expect to attract up to 400 million pilgrims.
Organizers say the scale of preparations for the Kumbh Mela is akin to setting up a temporary country from scratch — in this case, one more populous than the United States and Canada combined.
“Some 350 to 400 million devotees are going to visit the mela, so you can imagine the scale of preparations,” festival spokesman Vivek Chaturvedi said.
Around 150,000 toilets have been built and a network of community kitchens can each feed up to 50,000 people at the same time.
Another 68,000 LED light poles have been erected for a gathering so large that its bright lights can be seen from space.
Authorities and the police have also set up a network of “lost and found” centers and an accompanying phone app to help pilgrims lost in the immense crowd “to reunite with their families.”
India is the world’s most populous nation, with 1.4 billion people, and so is used to large crowds.
The last celebration at the site, the “ardh” or half Kumbh Mela in 2019, attracted 240 million pilgrims, according to India’s government.
That compares to an estimated 1.8 million Muslims who take part in the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia.
The government calls the Kumbh Mela a “vibrant blend of cultures, traditions, and languages, showcasing a ‘mini-India’ where millions come together without formal invitations.”
The Kumbh Mela, or “festival of the sacred pitcher,” is held at the confluence of the Ganges, the Yamuna and the mythical Sarasvati rivers.
Its emblematic ritual is mass bathing in the holy rivers, with the dawn charge often led by naked, ash-smeared holy men, many of whom will have walked for weeks to reach the site.
Hindus believe that those who immerse themselves in the waters cleanse themselves of sin, breaking free from the cycle of rebirth and ultimately attaining salvation.
Many pilgrims embrace a life of simplicity during the festival — vowing non-violence, celibacy and the offering of alms — and focusing on prayer and meditation.
Santosh Mishra, 55, from a village near the holy Hindu city of Varanasi, said he and his neighbors were “super excited” for the fair to begin.
“The whole village will be going,” Mishra told AFP. “It’s a great feeling when everyone takes a plunge in the river together.”
The festival is rooted in Hindu mythology, a battle between deities and demons for control of a pitcher containing the nectar of immortality.
Four drops of nectar were spilt during the battle and one landed at Prayagraj, where the Kumbh Mela is held every 12 years.
The other three fell on the cities of Nashik, Ujjain and Haridwar, where smaller festivals are held in intervening years.
The exact date of each celebration is based on the astrological positions of the Sun, Moon and Jupiter.
Ceremonies include the visually spectacular “aarti,” when vast numbers of priests perform rituals holding flickering lamps.
Devotees also float a sea of twinkling prayer lamps, crafted from baked flour, which glow with burning mustard oil or clarified butter.
Monday marks the start of festivities, coinciding with the full moon, with celebrations culminating on February 26, the final holy bathing day.
The mythic battle that undergirds the Kumbh Mela celebrations is mentioned in the Rig Veda, a sacred Hindu text written more than 3,000 years ago.
The festival was also mentioned by Chinese Buddhist monk and scholar Hiuen Tsang, who attended in the seventh century.
UNESCO lists the Kumbh Mela as part of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity.
It describes it as “the largest peaceful congregation of pilgrims on earth,” saying it “plays a central spiritual role in the country, exerting a mesmeric influence on ordinary Indians.”