WHO coronavirus vaccine scheme risks failure, leaving Pakistan in the lurch

In this picture taken on November 25, 2020 volunteers wait to be administered the new Chinese-made vaccine for the Covid-19 coronavirus, the first ever Phase 3 clinical trial for any vaccine in Pakistan, at a hospital in Islamabad. (AFP)
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Updated 17 December 2020
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WHO coronavirus vaccine scheme risks failure, leaving Pakistan in the lurch

  • WHO COVAX program is main global scheme to vaccinate poor and middle-income countries 
  • Pakistan is relying on the program to vaccinate as much as 20 percent of its population

BRUSSELS: The global scheme to deliver Covid-19 vaccines to poorer countries faces a “very high” risk of failure, potentially leaving nations that are home to billions of people with no access to vaccines until as late as 2024, internal documents say, with Pakistan, which has also signed up for the program, also at risk. 
The World Health Organization’s (WHO) COVAX program is the main global scheme to vaccinate people in poor and middle-income countries around the world against the coronavirus. It aims to deliver at least two billion vaccine doses by the end of 2021 to cover 20 percent of the most vulnerable people in 91 poor and middle-income countries, mostly in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
But in internal documents reviewed by Reuters, the scheme’s promoters say the program is struggling from a lack of funds, supply risks and complex contractual arrangements which could make it impossible to achieve its goals.
Pakistan is relying on the WHO program to vaccinate as much as 20 percent of its population, according to the health ministry.
“The risk of a failure to establish a successful COVAX Facility is very high,” says an internal report to the board of Gavi, an alliance of governments, drug companies, charities and international organizations that arranges global vaccination campaigns.
Gavi co-leads COVAX alongside the WHO. The report and other documents prepared by Gavi are being discussed at Gavi’s board meetings on December 15-17.
The failure of the facility could leave people in poor nations without any access to Covid-19 vaccines until 2024, one of the documents says.
The risk of failure is higher because the scheme was set up so quickly, operating in “uncharted territory,” the report says.
“Current risk exposure is deemed outside of risk appetite until there is full clarity on the size of risks and possibilities to mitigate them,” it says. “It therefore requires intensive mitigation efforts to bring the risk within risk appetite.”
Gavi hired Citigroup last month to provide advice on how to mitigate financial risks.
In one November 25 memo included in the documents submitted to the Gavi board, Citi advisers said the biggest risk to the program was from clauses in supply contracts that allow countries not to buy vaccines booked through COVAX.
A potential mismatch between vaccine supply and demand “is not a commercial risk efficiently mitigated by the market or the MDBs,” the Citi advisers wrote, referring to multilateral development banks such as the World Bank.
“Therefore it must either be mitigated through contract negotiation or through a Gavi risk absorption layer that is carefully managed by a management and governance structure.”
Asked about the documents, a Gavi spokesman said the body remains confident it can achieve its goals.
“It would be irresponsible not to assess the risks inherent to such a massive and complex undertaking, and to build policies and instruments to mitigate those risks,” he added.
The WHO did not respond to a request for comment. In the past it has let Gavi take the lead in public comments about the COVAX program.
Citibank said in a statement: “As a financial adviser, we are responsible for helping Gavi plan for a range of scenarios related to the COVAX facility and supporting their efforts to mitigate potential risks.”
Supply deals
COVAX’s plans rely on cheaper vaccines that have so far yet to receive approval, rather than vaccines from frontrunners Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna that use more expensive new mRNA technology.
The Pfizer vaccine has already been approved for emergency use in several countries and deployed in Britain and the United States, and the Moderna vaccine is expected to be similarly approved soon.
COVAX has so far reached non-binding supply agreements with AstraZeneca, Novavax and Sanofi for a total of 400 million doses, with options to order several hundred million additional shots, one of the Gavi documents says.
But the three companies have all faced delays in their trials that could push back some possible regulatory approvals to the second half of 2021 or later.
This could also increase COVAX’s financial needs. Its financial assumptions are based on an average cost of $5.20 per dose, one of the documents says.
Pfizer’s vaccines costs about $18.40-$19.50 per dose, while Moderna’s costs $25-$37. COVAX has no supply deals with either of those firms. Nor is it prioritising investment in ultra-cold distribution chains in poor countries, necessary for the Pfizer vaccine, as it still expects to use mostly shots which require more conventional cold storage, one of the Gavi documents says.
On Tuesday a WHO senior official said the agency was in talks with Pfizer and Moderna to include their Covid-19 vaccines as part of an early global rollout at a cost for poor countries possibly lower than current market prices.
Other shots are being developed worldwide and COVAX wants to expand its portfolio to include vaccines from other companies.
Rich countries, which have booked most of the currently available stocks of Covid-19 vaccines, are also planning to donate some excess doses to poor countries, although is not clear whether that would be through COVAX.
Financial pressure
To meet its target of vaccinating at least 20pc of people in poor countries next year, COVAX says it needs $4.9 billion in addition to $2.1 billion it has already raised.
If vaccine prices are higher than forecast, supply is delayed or the additional funds are not fully collected, the facility faces the prospect of failure, the documents say.
So far Britain and European Union countries are the main donors to COVAX, while the United States and China have made no financial commitments.
The World Bank and other multilateral financial institutions are offering cheap loans to poor countries to help them buy and deploy vaccines through COVAX.
The facility is issuing vaccine bonds which could raise as much as $1.5 billion next year if donors agreed to cover the costs, one of the Gavi documents says. COVAX is also receiving funds from private donors, mainly the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
But even under the best financial conditions, COVAX could still face failure, because of disproportionate financial risks caused by its complex deal-making process.
COVAX signs advance purchase contracts with companies on vaccine supplies that need to be paid for by donors or receiving countries that have the means to afford them.
But under clauses included in COVAX contracts, countries could still refuse to buy pre-ordered volumes if they prefer other vaccines, or if they manage to acquire them through other schemes, either faster or at better prices.
The facility could also face losses if countries were not able to pay for their orders, or even if herd immunity were developed too quickly, making vaccines no longer necessary, the Citigroup report said.
It proposed a strategy to mitigate these risks including through changes in supply contracts.


Pakistan increases price of petrol by Rs1.35 per liter till next fortnight

Updated 6 sec ago
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Pakistan increases price of petrol by Rs1.35 per liter till next fortnight

  • New price of petrol increases from Rs247.03 per liter to Rs248.38 per liter, says Finance Division 
  • Petroleum prices revised based on price variation in the international market, says notification international market, says notification 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani authorities have increased the price of petrol by Rs1.35 per liter till the next fortnight, the country’s Finance Division said in a notification late Thursday. 

As per the notification, the new price of petrol has been increased from Rs247.03 per liter to Rs248.38 per liter. 

“The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has worked out the consumer prices of petroleum products, based on the price variation in the international market,” OGRA said in a statement. 

Meanwhile, the government also increased the price of high speed diesel by Rs3.85 per liter, increasing it from Rs251.29 per liter to Rs255.14 per liter. 

The price of kerosene was slashed by Rs1.48 per liter, decreasing it from Rs163.02 per liter to Rs161.54 per liter, and the price of light diesel oil was slashed by Rs2.61 per liter, bringing it down from Rs150.12 per liter to Rs147.51 per liter. 

Pakistan revises petroleum prices every fortnight. Petrol is mostly used in private transport, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers in Pakistan while any increase in the price of diesel is considered highly inflationary as it is mostly used to power heavy transport vehicles and particularly adds to the prices of vegetables and other eatables.

However, the negligible decrease in petrol and diesel prices is unlikely to provide much relief to the inflation-stricken Pakistanis.


Middle East burger chain Salt to begin operations in Pakistan ‘soon’

Updated 14 min 51 sec ago
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Middle East burger chain Salt to begin operations in Pakistan ‘soon’

  • ’Salt’ has branches in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UK and Hungary already 
  • Salt did not mention which Pakistani cities it plans on opening outlets in

ISLAMABAD: International fast food chain “Salt” announced on Wednesday that it will expand its operations into Pakistan, vowing to provide its customers in the South Asian country high quality food “soon.”

Salt is a Middle East fast food chain based in Qatar since 2005 that specializes in burgers containing wagyu beef — a type of high-quality beef that comes from the Wagyu cattle breed native to Japan. The company founded by Qatar-based Ali Ahmed Buhindi has been running branches in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and also Hungary. 

“Time to pass the salt, Pakistan! SALT, is coming in hot with all the good vibes and flavors to slide right into your cravings,” the burger joint Salt said in a post on Instagram with a picture titled “coming soon.”

Salt did not mention which Pakistani cities it plans on opening its branches in. 

The burger chain offers a wide range of beef burgers that include brisket, truffle, signature, hook and original sliders. 

Its chicken burgers include Cheetos, pine chicken and crispy chicken sliders flavors. 

International fast food restaurants are quite popular in Pakistan with the likes of McDonald’s, KFC and Hardees operating successfully in multiple cities for decades. 


Pakistan’s national airline attracts $36 million bid from real estate company

Updated 31 October 2024
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Pakistan’s national airline attracts $36 million bid from real estate company

  • Sole bidder Blue World City refuses to match government’s minimum price for Pakistan International Airlines
  • Pakistan plans to sell over 51 percent of its stake in loss-making PIA as envisaged under an IMF deal this year

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s national flag carrier received a Rs10 billion [$36 million] bid from real estate development company Blue World City on Thursday for sixty percent of its stakes during a televised auction, much below the minimum price for the airline set by the government.
Pakistan plans to sell more than 51 percent of its stake in the loss-making Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) as part of economic reforms Islamabad agreed to with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a critical 37-month $7 billion bailout deal approved in September.
Pakistan’s government had pre-qualified six groups in June, but only real estate development company Blue World City met a Tuesday deadline to submit final documents to participate in the auction.
The state-owned Pakistan Television (PTV) broadcast the bidding process live, with Blue World City as the sole bidder. The bid for $36 million was read out in front of government officials and financial advisers. The government had set a minimum price of Rs85 billion [$305 million] for the airline.
“We have considered your match price option,” Blue World City Chairman Saad Nazir said during the event. “We have decided to stand with the price we have already submitted.”
 Nazir refused to match the government’s offer of Rs85 billion, saying that as per the company’s assessment, “this was the best decision.”
“If the government doesn’t privatize [PIA], we wish the government all the best,” he said.
 Pakistan’s privatization commission has allowed some time for potential bidders to see if any would outmatch Blue World City’s bid.
“The government couldn’t get the fair price of the PIA through the auction due to the single bidder,” Haroon Sharif, a former member of the cabinet committee on privatization, told Arab News.
“There was no competition to purchase stakes of the national carrier.”
The government’s initial plan was to finalize the deal to sell PIA on the country’s Independence Day, Aug. 14, but the plan was delayed following requests from bidders waiting for the airline’s latest audited accounts, aircraft lease agreements and clarity on flights to Europe, which are currently banned.
This auction was delayed to September and October but those also did not materialize.
Sharif said the government should have extended the auction’s deadline to involve more bidders in the process.
“Now it looks like the government is privatizing the PIA in desperation,” he noted.
Official data available with Arab News shows there are 88 commercially operated state-owned enterprises in Pakistan, with collective losses of up to Rs730.258 billion ($2.61 billion) in the fiscal year 2022 (FY22).
In its five-year privatization plan ending in 2029, the government has approved 24 state-owned enterprises for sale, including the PIA.
With a fleet of 34 aircraft comprising 17 Airbus A320s, 12 Boeing B777s and 5 ATRs, the PIA loses traffic to Middle Eastern carriers who have a market share of 60 percent, because of an absence of direct flights to destinations.
The carrier has air service pacts with 87 countries, and landing slots at key destinations such as London Heathrow.
The reorganization plan of the business will separate the aviation-related aspects from non-core components, so freeing the operating subsidiary of a large portion of legacy debt.


Pakistan says IMF cut its inflation forecast for the country for this year to 9.5%

Updated 31 October 2024
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Pakistan says IMF cut its inflation forecast for the country for this year to 9.5%

  • No need for government to introduce mini-year budget, says finance minister
  • Aurangzeb says IMF revised down import projections for Pakistan for current fiscal year

ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund has lowered its inflation forecast for Pakistan for the current year by 3.2% points to 9.5%, the country’s finance minister said on Thursday.

The IMF’s revised projection bring it closer to Pakistan’s own projections, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said.

He said there was no need to introduce a mid-year budget, responding to local media reports saying the government needed to revise its budget to stay on track with an ongoing $7 billion, 37-month program with the IMF.

Aurangzeb said the IMF also revised down its import projections for Pakistan in the current fiscal year, which ends in June 2025.

Pakistan has been struggling with boom-and-bust economic cycles for decades, leading to 22 IMF bailouts since 1958. Currently the country is the IMF’s fifth-largest debtor, owing the Fund $6.28 billion as of July 11, according to the lender’s data.

The latest economic crisis has been the most prolonged and has seen Pakistan facing its highest-ever inflation rate, pushing the country to the brink of a sovereign default last year before an IMF bailout. Inflation has since eased.


Pakistan flag carrier PIA attracts $36 million bid from real estate company

Updated 31 October 2024
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Pakistan flag carrier PIA attracts $36 million bid from real estate company

  • Pakistan is looking to offload 51-100 percent stake in debt-ridden airline to raise funds to reform state-owned assets
  • Pakistan pre-qualified six groups but only Blue World City company met deadline to submit documents for auction

KARACHI: Pakistan’s state-owned airline PIA has received a 10 billion rupee ($35.99 million) bid from real-estate development company Blue World City, the Privatization Ministry said on Thursday without disclosing the size of the stake.
The cash-strapped country is looking to offload a 51-100 percent stake in debt-ridden Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to raise funds and reform bleeding state-owned enterprises as envisaged under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program.
The government had pre-qualified six groups in June, but only one — real estate development company Blue World City — met a Tuesday deadline to submit final documents to participate in the process.
Officials from three groups that chose not to bid told Reuters on condition of anonymity that there were concerns about the government’s ability to stand by agreements made for the flag carrier in the long term.
One executive voiced concern about policy continuity once a new government came in. The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has relied on a coalition of disparate political parties.
The disposal of PIA is a step former governments have steered away from as it has been highly unpopular given the number of layoffs that would likely result from it.
Underpinning these concerns over policy continuity and honoring contracts was the government’s termination of power purchase contracts with five private companies earlier this month, as well as the process of re-negotiating other sovereign guaranteed pacts.
Changes in Pakistan’s decade-old agreements with private Independent Power Producer (IPP) projects, largely financed by foreign lenders, to address chronic power shortages, “raises the risk of investing as well as doing business in Pakistan, even in the presence of sovereign contracts as well as guarantees,” said Sakib Sherani, an economist who heads private firm Macro Economic Insights.
Other concerns raised by potential bidders included inconsistent government communication, unattractive terms and taxes on the sector, in addition to PIA’s legacy issues and reputation.
 ($1 = 277.8500 Pakistani rupees)