BRUSSELS: The global scheme to deliver Covid-19 vaccines to poorer countries faces a “very high” risk of failure, potentially leaving nations that are home to billions of people with no access to vaccines until as late as 2024, internal documents say, with Pakistan, which has also signed up for the program, also at risk.
The World Health Organization’s (WHO) COVAX program is the main global scheme to vaccinate people in poor and middle-income countries around the world against the coronavirus. It aims to deliver at least two billion vaccine doses by the end of 2021 to cover 20 percent of the most vulnerable people in 91 poor and middle-income countries, mostly in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
But in internal documents reviewed by Reuters, the scheme’s promoters say the program is struggling from a lack of funds, supply risks and complex contractual arrangements which could make it impossible to achieve its goals.
Pakistan is relying on the WHO program to vaccinate as much as 20 percent of its population, according to the health ministry.
“The risk of a failure to establish a successful COVAX Facility is very high,” says an internal report to the board of Gavi, an alliance of governments, drug companies, charities and international organizations that arranges global vaccination campaigns.
Gavi co-leads COVAX alongside the WHO. The report and other documents prepared by Gavi are being discussed at Gavi’s board meetings on December 15-17.
The failure of the facility could leave people in poor nations without any access to Covid-19 vaccines until 2024, one of the documents says.
The risk of failure is higher because the scheme was set up so quickly, operating in “uncharted territory,” the report says.
“Current risk exposure is deemed outside of risk appetite until there is full clarity on the size of risks and possibilities to mitigate them,” it says. “It therefore requires intensive mitigation efforts to bring the risk within risk appetite.”
Gavi hired Citigroup last month to provide advice on how to mitigate financial risks.
In one November 25 memo included in the documents submitted to the Gavi board, Citi advisers said the biggest risk to the program was from clauses in supply contracts that allow countries not to buy vaccines booked through COVAX.
A potential mismatch between vaccine supply and demand “is not a commercial risk efficiently mitigated by the market or the MDBs,” the Citi advisers wrote, referring to multilateral development banks such as the World Bank.
“Therefore it must either be mitigated through contract negotiation or through a Gavi risk absorption layer that is carefully managed by a management and governance structure.”
Asked about the documents, a Gavi spokesman said the body remains confident it can achieve its goals.
“It would be irresponsible not to assess the risks inherent to such a massive and complex undertaking, and to build policies and instruments to mitigate those risks,” he added.
The WHO did not respond to a request for comment. In the past it has let Gavi take the lead in public comments about the COVAX program.
Citibank said in a statement: “As a financial adviser, we are responsible for helping Gavi plan for a range of scenarios related to the COVAX facility and supporting their efforts to mitigate potential risks.”
Supply deals
COVAX’s plans rely on cheaper vaccines that have so far yet to receive approval, rather than vaccines from frontrunners Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna that use more expensive new mRNA technology.
The Pfizer vaccine has already been approved for emergency use in several countries and deployed in Britain and the United States, and the Moderna vaccine is expected to be similarly approved soon.
COVAX has so far reached non-binding supply agreements with AstraZeneca, Novavax and Sanofi for a total of 400 million doses, with options to order several hundred million additional shots, one of the Gavi documents says.
But the three companies have all faced delays in their trials that could push back some possible regulatory approvals to the second half of 2021 or later.
This could also increase COVAX’s financial needs. Its financial assumptions are based on an average cost of $5.20 per dose, one of the documents says.
Pfizer’s vaccines costs about $18.40-$19.50 per dose, while Moderna’s costs $25-$37. COVAX has no supply deals with either of those firms. Nor is it prioritising investment in ultra-cold distribution chains in poor countries, necessary for the Pfizer vaccine, as it still expects to use mostly shots which require more conventional cold storage, one of the Gavi documents says.
On Tuesday a WHO senior official said the agency was in talks with Pfizer and Moderna to include their Covid-19 vaccines as part of an early global rollout at a cost for poor countries possibly lower than current market prices.
Other shots are being developed worldwide and COVAX wants to expand its portfolio to include vaccines from other companies.
Rich countries, which have booked most of the currently available stocks of Covid-19 vaccines, are also planning to donate some excess doses to poor countries, although is not clear whether that would be through COVAX.
Financial pressure
To meet its target of vaccinating at least 20pc of people in poor countries next year, COVAX says it needs $4.9 billion in addition to $2.1 billion it has already raised.
If vaccine prices are higher than forecast, supply is delayed or the additional funds are not fully collected, the facility faces the prospect of failure, the documents say.
So far Britain and European Union countries are the main donors to COVAX, while the United States and China have made no financial commitments.
The World Bank and other multilateral financial institutions are offering cheap loans to poor countries to help them buy and deploy vaccines through COVAX.
The facility is issuing vaccine bonds which could raise as much as $1.5 billion next year if donors agreed to cover the costs, one of the Gavi documents says. COVAX is also receiving funds from private donors, mainly the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
But even under the best financial conditions, COVAX could still face failure, because of disproportionate financial risks caused by its complex deal-making process.
COVAX signs advance purchase contracts with companies on vaccine supplies that need to be paid for by donors or receiving countries that have the means to afford them.
But under clauses included in COVAX contracts, countries could still refuse to buy pre-ordered volumes if they prefer other vaccines, or if they manage to acquire them through other schemes, either faster or at better prices.
The facility could also face losses if countries were not able to pay for their orders, or even if herd immunity were developed too quickly, making vaccines no longer necessary, the Citigroup report said.
It proposed a strategy to mitigate these risks including through changes in supply contracts.
WHO coronavirus vaccine scheme risks failure, leaving Pakistan in the lurch
https://arab.news/62dur
WHO coronavirus vaccine scheme risks failure, leaving Pakistan in the lurch
- WHO COVAX program is main global scheme to vaccinate poor and middle-income countries
- Pakistan is relying on the program to vaccinate as much as 20 percent of its population
Policeman killed, over a dozen injured in roadside blast in Pakistan’s Balochistan
- The blast appeared to target a police van passing by a girls school in the Mastung district of the province
- Balochistan, home to a long-running insurgency, has witnessed a spike in militant violence in recent months
QUETTA: A policeman was killed and more than a dozen other persons were injured in a roadside blast in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province on Friday, police said, in the latest incident of violence to hit the restive region.
The blast appeared to target a police van passing by a girls school in the Mastung district of the province, according to police and local administration officials.
Hafiz Azam, a police official in Mastung, said the police mobile van came under attack when it was on a routine patrol on Friday morning.
“One policeman has been killed and 13 others have been injured in the blast,” Azam told Arab News.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the blast.
“We have cordoned-off the area and are shifting the injured to the hospital,” Baz Muhammad Marri, the Mastung deputy commissioner, told Arab News.
Balochistan, which borders Iran and Afghanistan and is home to major China-led projects such as a strategic port and a gold and copper mine, has been the site of a decades-long separatist insurgency by ethnic Baloch militants. The province has lately seen an increase in attacks by separatist militants.
On Tuesday, five people were killed in an attack by armed men on the construction site of a small dam in Balochistan’s Panjgur district. The outlawed Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the most prominent of several separatist groups, claimed responsibility for the attack along with killing of two other persons in Kech and Quetta districts.
This month, 21 miners working at privately run coal mines were killed in an attack by unidentified gunmen.
The separatists accuse the central government of exploiting Balochistan’s mineral and gas resources. The Pakistani state denies the allegation and says it is working to uplift the region through development initiatives.
Besides Baloch separatists, the restive region also has a presence of religiously motivated militant groups, who frequently target police and security forces.
Islamabad says militants mainly associated with the Pakistani Taliban frequently launch attacks from Afghanistan and has even blamed Kabul’s Afghan Taliban rulers for facilitating anti-Pakistan groups. Kabul denies the allegation.
TikTok bandits terrorize, transfix Pakistan riverlands
- The outlaws parade hostages in clips for ransom or exhibit arsenals of heavy weapons in musical TikToks
- Sweeping police operations and even an army incursion in 2016 failed to impose law and order in the area
RAHIM YAR KHAN: With a showman’s flair and an outlaw’s moustache, the Pakistani gangster dials the hotline on his own most wanted notice — taunting the authorities who put a bounty on his head.
Staring down the lens in a social media clip, Shahid Lund Baloch challenges the official on the phone and his thousands of viewers: “Do you know my circumstances or my reasons for taking up arms?“
The 28-year-old is hiding out in riverine terrain in central Punjab which has long offered refuge to bandits — using the Internet to enthral citizens even as he preys on them, police say.
On TikTok, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram he fascinates tens of thousands with messages delivered gun-in-hand, romanticizing his rural lifestyle and cultivating a reputation as a champion of the people.
But he is wanted for 28 cases including murder, abduction and attacks on police — with a 10 million rupee ($36,000) price on his head.
“People who are sitting on the outside think he is a hero, but the people here know he is no hero,” said Javed Dhillon, a former lawmaker for Rahim Yar Khan district close to the hideouts of Baloch, and other bandits like him.
“They have been at the receiving end of his cruelty and violence.”
Baloch is said to dwell on a sandy island in the “Katcha lands” — roughly translating as “backwaters” — on the Indus River which skewers Pakistan from top to bottom.
High-standing crops provide cover for ambushes and the region is riven by shifting seasonal waterways that complicate pursuit over crimes ranging from kidnapping to highway robbery and smuggling.
At the intersection of three of Pakistan’s four provinces, gangs with hundreds of members have for decades capitalized on poor coordination between police forces by flitting across jurisdictions.
“The natural features of these lands support the criminals,” said senior police officer Naveed Wahla. “They’ll hide out in a water turbine, move in boats, or through sugarcane crops.”
Sweeping police operations and even an army incursion in 2016 failed to impose law and order. This August, a rocket attack on a police convoy killed 12 officers.
“In the current state of affairs here there is only fear and terror,” said Haq Nawaz, whose adult son was abducted late September for a five million rupee ransom he cannot afford.
“There is no one to look after our wellbeing,” he complains.
But the gangs are increasingly online.
Some use the web to lay “honey-traps” luring kidnap victims by impersonating romantic suitors, business partners and advertising cheap sales of tractors or cars.
Some parade hostages in clips for ransom or exhibit arsenals of heavy weapons in musical TikToks.
Baloch has by far the largest online profile — irking police with a combined 200,000 followers.
Rizwan Gondal, the head police officer of Rahim Yar Khan district, says that his detectives have a dossier proving his “heinous criminal activities.”
“Police have made multiple efforts to capture him however he escapes,” he added.
“He’s a very media savvy guy. Let him say, ‘I am going to surrender before the state to prove that I am innocent’ and let the media cover it.”
In his clips Baloch protests his innocence whilst casting himself as a vigilante in a lawless land, claiming he chose to fight only after family members were slain in tribal clashes.
“We couldn’t get justice from the courts so I decided to pick up arms and started fighting with my enemies,” Baloch told AFP. “They killed our people, we killed theirs.”
But he also plays off the cycle of state neglect which breeds banditry and in turn relegates the destitute farming communities further to society’s fringes.
“The villagers here are not viewed as human but as animals,” Baloch told AFP. “If they gave us schools, electricity, government hospitals and justice, why would anyone even think of taking up arms?“
In comments sections his viewers call him “beloved brother bandit” and a “real hero.” “You have won my heart,” claims another.
“He is popular in the mainstream because he is giving the police authorities a tough time,” said former lawmaker Dhillon.
“People like that he says the things they can’t say out loud against people they can’t speak out against.”
Police have proposed countering bandits by downgrading mobile phone towers to 2G in the Katcha lands, preventing social media apps from loading.
That has not yet happened and would risk cutting communities off further still.
But more low tech solutions have had some success.
An anti-honey trap police cell cautions citizens against the gangs with the help of billboards and loudspeakers at checkpoints entering the area, preventing 531 people from falling prey since last August, according to their data.
Baloch scoffs at police. But one problem plaguing his bid for online stardom has his attention.
Copycat social media accounts pretend to be him and share duplicates of his videos — earning thousands more followers and views than his legitimate accounts.
He feels robbed. “I don’t know what they are trying to achieve,” he complains.
But for police, his Internet hero status is at odds with the toll of his crimes.
“People will idealize Shahid Lund Baloch but when they ultimately get kidnapped by him, then they will realize who Shahid Lund Baloch really is,” said senior officer Wahla.
Pakistan revenue authority launches advanced system to boost tax collection
- Development comes amid Pakistan’s efforts to prevent tax evasion worth billions of rupees
- Islamabad has set a challenging tax revenue target of $46.66 billion for the new fiscal year
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s tax regulator has launched an advanced Stock Register system to optimize tax administration and boost revenue collection, it said on Thursday, amid efforts to prevent tax evasion.
The development comes amid Pakistan’s desperate attempts at preventing tax evasion worth billions of rupees and meeting a challenging tax revenue target of Rs13 trillion ($46.66 billion) for the new fiscal year that started July 1, a near 40 percent jump from the last year.
Pakistan last year came to the brink of a default as the economy shriveled amid political chaos, impact of 2022 floods, and decades of mismanagement. Last-minute loan rollovers from friendly countries as well as a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) saved the nation.
The situation prompted Islamabad to introduce institutional reforms, including the digitization of the FBR, to put the economy back on track as the South Asian country grappled shrinking foreign exchange reserves, high inflation, and staggering public debts.
“This robust digital infrastructure grants tax officers real-time, in-depth access to registered persons’ data, bolstering transparency and securing compliance with Income Tax (IT) and Sales Tax (ST) regulations,” the FBR said on X.
The Stock Register functions as a sophisticated information and reporting system, and empowers tax officers to make precise tax assessments and mitigate the risk of tax evasion, according to the revenue authority.
The FBR said it had also launched the Information Center 2.0 portal to enhance its capacity to strengthen the national exchequer.
“Accessible exclusively through the IRIS tax officers’ platform at FBR field formations, Information Center 2.0 features advanced filters and search functionalities, enabling swift data retrieval to support compliance and precise assessments,” it said.
“This initiative represents a pivotal advancement in tax collection efforts. It fosters robust reporting, minimizes tax evasion & strengthens resource & financial management across the business landscape, ensuring adherence to tax regulations through a centralized data ecosystem.”
Since avoiding default last year, Pakistan has reached an agreement with the IMF for a new $7 billion loan. The South Asian country is currently trying to boost trade and investment to revive its fragile $350 billion economy.
Pakistan increases price of petrol by Rs1.35 per liter till next fortnight
- New price of petrol increases from Rs247.03 per liter to Rs248.38 per liter, says Finance Division
- Petroleum prices revised based on price variation in the international market, says notification international market, says notification
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani authorities have increased the price of petrol by Rs1.35 per liter till the next fortnight, the country’s Finance Division said in a notification late Thursday.
As per the notification, the new price of petrol has been increased from Rs247.03 per liter to Rs248.38 per liter.
“The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has worked out the consumer prices of petroleum products, based on the price variation in the international market,” OGRA said in a statement.
Meanwhile, the government also increased the price of high speed diesel by Rs3.85 per liter, increasing it from Rs251.29 per liter to Rs255.14 per liter.
The price of kerosene was slashed by Rs1.48 per liter, decreasing it from Rs163.02 per liter to Rs161.54 per liter, and the price of light diesel oil was slashed by Rs2.61 per liter, bringing it down from Rs150.12 per liter to Rs147.51 per liter.
Pakistan revises petroleum prices every fortnight. Petrol is mostly used in private transport, small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers in Pakistan while any increase in the price of diesel is considered highly inflationary as it is mostly used to power heavy transport vehicles and particularly adds to the prices of vegetables and other eatables.
However, the negligible decrease in petrol and diesel prices is unlikely to provide much relief to the inflation-stricken Pakistanis.
Middle East burger chain Salt to begin operations in Pakistan ‘soon’
- ’Salt’ has branches in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UK and Hungary already
- Salt did not mention which Pakistani cities it plans on opening outlets in
ISLAMABAD: International fast food chain “Salt” announced on Wednesday that it will expand its operations into Pakistan, vowing to provide its customers in the South Asian country high quality food “soon.”
Salt is a Middle East fast food chain based in Qatar since 2005 that specializes in burgers containing wagyu beef — a type of high-quality beef that comes from the Wagyu cattle breed native to Japan. The company founded by Qatar-based Ali Ahmed Buhindi has been running branches in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and also Hungary.
“Time to pass the salt, Pakistan! SALT, is coming in hot with all the good vibes and flavors to slide right into your cravings,” the burger joint Salt said in a post on Instagram with a picture titled “coming soon.”
Salt did not mention which Pakistani cities it plans on opening its branches in.
The burger chain offers a wide range of beef burgers that include brisket, truffle, signature, hook and original sliders.
Its chicken burgers include Cheetos, pine chicken and crispy chicken sliders flavors.
International fast food restaurants are quite popular in Pakistan with the likes of McDonald’s, KFC and Hardees operating successfully in multiple cities for decades.