Remittance resurgence a tonic but no cure for sickly emerging economies like Pakistan 

In this picture taken on April 15, 2019, a Pakistani dealer counts US dollars at a currency exchange shop in Karachi. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 22 December 2020
Follow

Remittance resurgence a tonic but no cure for sickly emerging economies like Pakistan 

  • Pakistan, Mexico, El Salvador, Kenya, Bangladesh, Philippines and Sri Lanka are among those enjoying resurgent flows in recent months
  • Record flows to Pakistan have helped it accumulate a $1.2 billion current account surplus, experts say such flows may falter in 2021

LONDON: Larger-than-expected money transfers from migrants overseas have provided a tonic for several sickly economies like Pakistan during the coronavirus crisis, but the outlook for such flows remains fraught with uncertainty even as vaccines are rolled out.
Pakistan, Mexico, El Salvador, Kenya, Bangladesh, Philippines and Sri Lanka are among those enjoying resurgent flows in recent months, helping them narrow current account gaps, stabilize currencies and meet any overseas debt payments.
Such countries have led a surprise recovery in remittances in the second half of 2020, as the slowdown in flows amid the pandemic proved less severe than initially feared.
Migrants have cushioned the pandemic’s economic blow, drawing down savings to help out families back home and sending more money via official channels rather than in person, while benefiting from access to state support, including cash handouts, in host countries such as the United States.
While vaccinations should help economic activity to return to normal, the risk of mounting job losses as government support unwinds mean such flows, a source of FX revenue and gross domestic product for many emerging countries, may falter in 2021.
Unemployment in wealthy G20 countries, home to a sizeable proportion of migrants, is expected to reach 10% by the end of 2020 and remain above levels at the end of 2019 next year, the OECD has forecast.
“Countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Philippines, which receive about 9% or 10% of GDP from remittances, have a window of opportunity to invest these flows into productive areas of the economy to help their recoveries because at some point this window may close as people may lose their jobs or decide to go back to their home countries,” said Emre Akcakmak, portfolio manager at East Capital, a specialist in emerging and frontier markets.
Record flows to Pakistan have helped it accumulate a $1.2 billion current account surplus at a time when it is paying back a $3 billion loan to Saudi Arabia.
Strong remittances and subdued imports should help Sri Lanka to service its July Eurobond maturity, said Tellimer economist Patrick Curran. Beset with surging debt and collapsing tourism revenues, the island nation has been assessed at growing risk of default by rating agencies.
Mexico’s currency depreciation has helped put the country on course for its largest current account surplus in more than 30 years, Goldman Sachs estimates.

DEEPER, PROLONGED
Remittances are relatively stable compared with other financial flows. That includes foreign direct investment, which remittances overtook in 2019. Meanwhile portfolio flows, set to surge in the last quarter of 2020 to their highest since the first quarter of 2013, are prone to sharp reversals as they did during the taper tantrum.
But the outlook is uncertain.
The World Bank in October revised its 2020 estimated drop in flows to low- and middle-income countries to 7% from 19.7% previously, but predicted a further 7.5% dip next year. That is a deeper and longer downturn than during the global financial crisis, when flows shrank 4.9% in 2009, before rebounding 11.8% a year later.

For the first time in recent history, the stock of international migrants is expected to fall in 2020. Those remaining in host countries face an uncertain future.
In the United States, in a reversal of pre-pandemic trends, the unemployment rate for immigrants was now 2 percentage points higher than the rate for natives, according to the OECD.
“We are expecting a strong recovery in global growth as vaccination is rolled out and we begin to see a normalization in economic activity. This should support global remittances,” said Farouk Soussa, senior economist at Goldman Sachs.
“On the other hand, we think there have been a number of one-off factors that have held up remittances this year, and these may not come into play next year.”
The Gulf, accounting for around 40% of total outward remittances, may see a push to replace foreign workers with locals in 2021, Soussa said.
That is bad news for countries that rely on transfers from the Gulf, such as Bangladesh, Philippines, Egypt and Lebanon. Lebanon’s financial crisis and dwindling economy mean remittances are seen rising to more than a third of GDP in 2020.
One hope is a recovery in exports and tourism, the other big money maker and hard currency source for emerging economies. Yet while the vaccine rollout should help, the outlook is uncertain.


Pakistani naval ships visit Kuwait and Iraq, conduct joint exercises in Arabian Gulf

Updated 22 December 2024
Follow

Pakistani naval ships visit Kuwait and Iraq, conduct joint exercises in Arabian Gulf

  • Pakistan regularly holds joint exercises with allies to increase synergy and deter piracy, drug trafficking and other illicit activities
  • The visit of Pakistan Navy flotilla to Kuwait and Iraq will further enhance the existing diplomatic and naval relations, the military says

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani naval ships have visited Kuwaiti and Iraqi ports to conduct joint exercises with both navies in the Arabian Gulf, the Pakistani military said on Sunday, adding the visits would enhance existing relations.

Pakistan Navy Ships (PNS) Rasadgar and Azmat visited the Kuwaiti port of Al-Shuwaikh, while Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) ship Dasht visited the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani military’s media wing.

On arrival at both ports, Pakistani diplomatic and host naval officials warmly welcomed the Pakistan Navy ships and the mission commander, along with commanding officers of the ships, held meetings with the naval leadership of both countries.

“Later, naval exercises were also conducted together with Kuwaiti and Iraqi navy ships,” the ISPR said in a statement. “The exercises were aimed at improving mutual cooperation between the navies and developing the capacity for joint operations.”

During the meetings, naval officials discussed matters of mutual interest, cooperation in maritime security and communication, according to the statement.

“The visit of Pakistan Navy flotilla to Kuwait and Iraq will further enhance the existing diplomatic and naval relations with friendly countries,” it read.

Pakistan Navy regularly collaborates and holds joint military exercises with allies to increase synergy, promote regional peace and stability and deter piracy, drug trafficking and other illicit maritime activities.

This month, Pakistan Navy conducted joint naval exercises and drills with Royal Oman ship ‘Alseeb.’ The bilateral naval exercise, “Samar Al-Tayeb,” is conducted regularly between the navies of the two nations.

In July, Pakistan Navy also assumed command of a multinational task force responsible for ensuring maritime security in the southeastern waters of the Middle East, operating in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman and Gulf of Aden.


Pakistan’s army vows to hunt down militants a day after attack kills 16 soldiers

Updated 22 December 2024
Follow

Pakistan’s army vows to hunt down militants a day after attack kills 16 soldiers

  • Pakistan has struggled to contain militancy in its northwest since a fragile truce with Pakistani Taliban broke down in 2022
  • Islamabad has frequently blamed the surge in militancy on militants operating out of Afghanistan, Kabul denies the allegation

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, on Sunday vowed to hunt down militants waging attacks against security forces and their facilitators, the Pakistani military said, a day after the killing of 16 soldiers in an ambush in the country’s northwest.

Gen. Munir said this during his visit to the South Waziristan district in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, which has been battling a surge in militancy.

The visit came a day after the killing of 16 soldiers and eight militants during a gunfight in South Waziristan after a group of militants ambushed an army outpost in Makeen area.

Interacting with officers and troops, the army chief commended their resilience and steadfastness in the face of militancy, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media wing.

“The army chief highlighted that the courage, resilience, and unyielding determination of Pakistan’s armed forces are the cornerstone of the nation’s sovereignty,” the ISPR said in a statement

“COAS reaffirmed Pakistan Army’s commitment to pursuing Fitna Al Khwarij [militants] which shall continue to be hunted down till its elimination along with the facilitator, abettors and financier who will be made to pay the price for their nefarious activities against the state.”

The brazen raid on the outpost near the border with Afghanistan was claimed by the Pakistani Taliban, who said it was staged “in retaliation for the martyrdom of our senior commanders.”

The development came days after the Pakistani military said it had killed 11 militants in separate operations in KP’s Tank, North Waziristan and Mohmand districts.

Pakistan has witnessed a surge in militancy in KP since November 2022, when a fragile truce between the Pakistani Taliban and the government in Islamabad broke down.

Islamabad has frequently accused neighboring Afghanistan of sheltering and supporting militant groups that launch cross-border attacks. Afghan officials deny involvement, insisting Pakistan’s security issues are an internal matter of Islamabad.

On Saturday, the Pakistani military also urged the Taliban administration in Kabul to ensure robust border management after a group of militants tried to infiltrate from Afghanistan, leading to a skirmish that left four militants and a soldier dead a day earlier.


Pakistan national airline aims to expand its fleet to improve flight operations

Updated 22 December 2024
Follow

Pakistan national airline aims to expand its fleet to improve flight operations

  • PIA has 23% of Pakistan’s domestic aviation market, but its 34-plane fleet has failed to compete globally
  • The airline has faced a lack of direct flights, despite having agreements with 87 countries and key landing slots

KARACHI: Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) is aiming to expand its fleet to improve flight operations, the national flag carrier said on Sunday, following the addition of another Airbus 320.

PIA has 23 percent of Pakistan’s domestic aviation market, but its 34-plane fleet has failed to compete with carriers internationally.

The Pakistani airline has been facing a lack of direct flights, despite having agreements with 87 countries and key landing slots.

“The 11th Airbus 320 AP-BOM has been inducted into the operational fleet with new engines. The aircraft was rolled out from the hangar with new paint and cabin decoration,” PIA said in a statement.

“PIA’s operational fleet will also include long-grounded Boeing 777 and ATR aircraft in the next few days.”

The fleet revival will greatly improve the expansion of PIA’s network and product quality, according to the statement. From this week, PIA has also introduced an in-flight Internet system in domestic flights, which is gaining popularity among passengers.

The airline said strict adherence to flight schedules, providing safe and high-quality products to passengers was its top priority.

“PIA’s flight schedule has achieved 90 percent regularity,” PIA Chief Executive Officer Khurram Mushtaq said. “Measures for operational fleet expansion and product improvement are part of our commitment.”

Earlier this month, PIA said it would resume flights to Europe in January, starting with Paris, after the EU aviation regulator lifted a ban on the national flag carrier.

PIA’s authorization to operate in the EU was suspended in June 2020 over concerns about the ability of Pakistani authorities and its Civil Aviation Authority to ensure compliance with international aviation standards.

The ban cost the loss-making airline 40 billion rupees ($144 million) annually in revenue. Pakistan’s attempts to privatize PIA fell flat this year, when it received only a single offer, well below its asking price.


Pakistani province launches helicopter service to evacuate people, dispatch aid to clashes-hit district

Updated 22 December 2024
Follow

Pakistani province launches helicopter service to evacuate people, dispatch aid to clashes-hit district

  • Clashes between Sunni, Shia tribes have killed over 100 people in Kurram since last month
  • On Friday, authorities set a deadline of Feb. 1 for the warring tribes to surrender weapons

PESHAWAR: Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province has launched a helicopter service to evacuate people and transport aid to Kurram district that has been hit by sectarian clashes in recent weeks, officials said on Sunday.

Kurram, a tribal district of around 600,000 near Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan where federal and provincial authorities have traditionally exerted limited control, has been a flashpoint for sectarian tensions between Shia and Sunni tribes for decades.

Fresh clashes that erupted last month have killed more than a hundred people, triggering a humanitarian crisis with reports of starvation, lack of medicine and oxygen shortages following the blocking of the main highway connecting Kurram’s main city of Parachinar to the provincial capital of Peshawar.

In response to the problems being faced by residents, the KP administration has been facilitating travel between Parachinar and Peshawar. On Sunday, two flights evacuated 27 individuals as well as carried 16 government staffers and members of a tribal council, which has been striving to achieve peace, to Kurram.

“There is no fare involved in transportation of people or medicines via the helicopter, rather it is a voluntary service by the KP government to meet the emergency situation,” Nisar Muhammad Khan, a KP government official, told Arab News.

The helicopter service was also being used to dispatch medicines to Parachinar. A day ago, 53 individuals, including 14 patients, were shifted to Peshawar from Kurram via helicopter, according to the provincial authorities.

A third flight was scheduled to bring people stranded in the Tal area back to Parachinar, while five more flights were expected to relocate over a hundred people on Sunday, according to the provincial government.

Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur’s office said the government had so far dispatched 1,850 kilograms of medical supplies to Kurram, assuring that it would mobilize all resources to ease problems of the people and ensure durable peace in the region.

The development comes days after the KP authorities set a deadline of Feb. 1 for warring Sunni and Shia tribes in the district to surrender all weapons and dismantle their bunkers to stem sectarian clashes in the region.

The decision was made at a meeting of the KP apex committee, which comprises civilian and military officials, to discuss a sustainable solution to the issue. It allowed the launch of a special air service for temporary evacuation from some parts of Kurram to protect people’s lives, according to the apex committee declaration.

“The agreement outlines that both sides will submit a detailed action plan within 15 days for voluntary submission of weapons,” read a declaration issued after the apex committee meeting.

“All weapons are to be deposited with the local administration by February 1. Additionally, it was decided that all bunkers in the area will be dismantled by the same deadline.”

In the meantime, land routes to the area would be opened intermittently on humanitarian grounds and a mechanism was put in place for secure transportation, according to the statement.

“Personnel of police and Frontier Corps will jointly provide security to the convoys,” it read.

Last month’s clashes erupted after rival tribes attacked convoys of passengers on the Parachinar-Peshawar road, which were followed by attacks on each other’s villages.

The apex committee asked both sides to avoid any violent action in the future to keep the land route safe and open at all times, hoping that the parties would fully cooperate with the government for a lasting solution to the issue.


Champions Trophy preparations in full swing as Karachi stadium upgradation nears completion

Updated 22 December 2024
Follow

Champions Trophy preparations in full swing as Karachi stadium upgradation nears completion

  • PCB Chairman Mohsin Naqvi says the National Stadium will be ready well before the ICC tournament
  • He says the PCB is improving facilities for Pakistani cricket fans to ensure they have a better experience

ISLAMABAD: Preparations for the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 are progressing rapidly, with the upgradation of Karachi’s National Stadium nearing completion, Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) Chairman Mohsin Naqvi said on Sunday during a visit to the venue.

The tournament, scheduled for February 2025, has been at the center of controversy following India's reluctance to play in Pakistan due to strained political ties.

The International Cricket Council resolved the impasse by approving a hybrid model, allowing India’s matches to be held at neutral venues while other teams play in Pakistan. The decision ensured India’s participation while retaining Pakistan as the official host.

“Remarkable progress has been made in a very short time,” Naqvi was quoted in a PCB statement. “The upgradation of the National Stadium will be completed well before the Champions Trophy tournament.”

During the visit, Naqvi reviewed ongoing projects, including the installation of new seats in enclosures, enhanced parking facilities for 2,700 vehicles and finishing work on the stadium building.

He also instructed officials to expedite the installation of LED lights and scoreboards.

“We are improving facilities for cricket fans to ensure they have a better experience,” he added.

The PCB is under pressure to ensure the country is ready to host the major ICC tournament.

Security concerns and political tensions had previously kept high-profile international cricket events away, but recent improvements in safety and infrastructure have bolstered Pakistan’s case as a venue.

Praising the rapid progress at the National Stadium, Naqvi lauded the project team for their dedication.

“I congratulate the entire team for their outstanding and swift work,” he said.

The Champions Trophy is seen as a pivotal moment for Pakistan cricket, with the PCB aiming to deliver a world-class tournament to reaffirm the country’s ability to host international events successfully.