DUBAI: With World Cup 2026 qualifying’s third round now past its halfway point in Asia, nations are starting to sense whether they will need to renew their passports or begin brainstorming alternative holiday ideas.

None of the Middle East’s nine remaining competitors yet look guaranteed to be boarding a flight to North America, with four crucial fixtures left to fulfill until June 2025.

This four-month gap until play resumes provides an opportune moment for Arab News to assess where the region’s finest stand.

PACKING THEIR BAGS

Iraq (2nd, Group B)

Perennial underachievers look poised to make their global return.

A golden touch from unheralded Spanish boss Jesus Casas saw him debut with victory on home soil in January 2023’s 25th Arabian Gulf Cup. This unifying impact on a fractious national team has extended into a third round from which the Lions of Mesopotamia appear most capable of slotting in behind South Korea as automatic qualifiers from a Group B full of Middle Eastern interest.

Youngsters, such as Ali Jasim and Youssef Amyn, have dovetailed perfectly with experienced campaigners like hulking center forward Ayman Hussein. They will, though, want to wrap up a first World Cup qualification since 1986 before June 2025’s onerous, final double-header against South Korea and Jordan.

LOOKING AT FLIGHTS

UAE (3rd, Group A)

November could not have gone any better for Paulo Bento’s side.

October’s anguish was unequivocally erased with 3-0 victory against Kyrgyzstan and reparative 5-0 thrashing of great-rivals Qatar. Fabio De Lima’s legend status was underlined with four goals against the Qataris, while youthful vigor abounds elsewhere.

Fourth-round progression is almost assured. But, with momentum now on their side, the bigger prize of automatic World Cup entry — for the first time since 1990 — looms when they aim to reel in second-placed Uzbekistan next year.

Jordan (3rd, Group B)

An international break stamped with frustration should not detract from a positive wider picture.

Draws at Iraq (good) and Kuwait (bad) have kept Jordan on the heels of the former-mentioned second-placed side. This further defied pessimism which followed the summer abdication of transformational head coach Hussein Ammouta from the shock 2023 Asian Cup beaten finalists, to the UAE’s Al-Jazira.

With Montpellier’s Musa Al-Taamari and 2023 AFC Player of the Year runner-up Yazan Al-Naimat within their ranks, anything is possible for potential World Cup debutants.

IN FOR THE LONG HAUL

Qatar (4th, Group A)

If Qatar in this cycle make a World Cup via qualification for the first time, they will have done it the hard way.

A rollercoaster November from 2022’s hosts contained the highs of 102nd-minute victory against second-placed Uzbekistan and the depths of their UAE humiliation. That is now 17 goals conceded from six third-round matches — an unsustainable volume even for a nation garlanded by 2023 AFC Player of the Year Akram Afif.

Pressure builds on 2023 Asian Cup orchestrator Tintin Marquez. March’s generous restart against also-rans North Korea and Kyrgyzstan must favorably change their qualifying situation, or a fourth-round lottery awaits.

Oman (4th, Group B)

Bold leadership could yet gain reward for unfancied Oman.

Former Czech Republic manager Jaroslav Silhavy was unceremoniously dumped after September’s pointless third-round start versus predicted automatic qualifiers Iraq and South Korea. A return to Rashid Jaber has, however, kept them in the hunt.

Beat Kuwait on March 25, 2025 and a fourth-round berth will feel increasingly tangible.

Kuwait (5th, Group B)

A glimmer of hope still exists for Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia’s World Cup 2018 supremo Juan Antonio Pizzi has added valuable know-how into a squad still finding its feet after iconic forward Bader Al-Mutawa’s 2022 international retirement.

Repetition of 1982’s World Cup qualification remains a distinct long shot. If a fourth-round spot is secured, however, they will look back on a pair of 1-1 draws against fancied Jordan as pivotal.

Saudi Arabia (4th, Group C)

A demanding Group C was never going to be easy.

But, few expected the six-time World Cup qualifiers would find themselves in such peril.

Last month’s decision to ditch Roberto Mancini and rehire Herve Renard generated just one point from testing visits to Australia and Indonesia. Even Palestine (four goals) and North Korea (five goals) have outscored the Green Falcons (three goals) throughout this concerning third round.

A clean bill of health for Al-Hilal talisman Salem Al-Dawsari cannot come soon enough, while replication would be welcome on the international stage of 20-year-old winger Marwan Al-Sahafi’s eye-catching scoring exploits on loan at Belgium’s Beerschot.

If the debonair Renard can solve these chronic attacking issues against China and runaway leaders Japan in March, a compact pool — second to sixth are separated by one point — still offers substantial hope.

Bahrain (5th, Group C)

It has been a nerve-fraying experience for Bahrain fans in the third round.

Decisive goals from 89 minutes+ have been produced during four of their six qualifiers. From this maelstrom, The Reds — somehow — remain firmly in contention for either automatic World Cup progression or a fourth-round slot.

The visit to an impassioned Indonesia on March 25, 2025 looks key.

MAKING OTHER PLANS

Palestine (6th, Group B)

It is remarkable — and utterly commendable — that Palestine have made it this far.

Makram Daboub’s men continue to perform heroically despite war in Gaza, with South Korea and Tottenham Hotspur superstar Son Heung-min stating this month “we can all learn from” their preparations after a heroic 1-1 draw. This was the second time they have held Group B’s giant.

Charleroi forward Oday Dabbagh and his teammates keep believing, even while being forced to play away from home. But, they appear just short of the necessary quality.

If ever the spectrum of stakes faced by men’s international cricket teams needed to be viewed at its extremes, current events provide a vivid illustration. At one end is the imbroglio around who is prepared to play whom and where in the Champions Trophy in 2025. At the other end are the qualifying tournaments to decide who will play in the 2026 T20 and 2027 One Day World Cups.

Ever since the International Cricket Council announced in November 2021 that Pakistan would host the 2025 Champions Trophy, trouble has been brewing. The country has not hosted a global tournament since the 1996 World Cup, which it shared with India and Sri Lanka. Terrorist attacks on the Taj Hotel in Mumbai in November 2008, and directly on the Sri Lankan team’s bus in Lahore in March 2009, ensured it would be a long time before international cricket returned to Pakistan.

In preparation, the Pakistan Cricket Board and government have embarked upon a major rebuilding program of its main stadiums. Whether these will be used for the Champions Trophy remains in the balance. It never seemed likely that the Indian government would authorize its cricket team to play in Pakistan, even though Lahore was identified as the most suitable venue given its proximity to the border. The possibility was quashed in unceremonious fashion last week.

After requests from the PCB for clarification about India’s intentions, a letter was sent by the Board of Control for Cricket in India to the ICC, which formally forwarded it to the PCB. The letter confirmed what most people had long anticipated: India will not travel to Pakistan for the Champions Trophy. In turn, the PCB sought advice from its government. Immediately, it dug its heels in, rejecting a compromise situation that has been used before — a hybrid model. This would see India playing its matches in a neutral location, possibly the UAE.

Previous compromise situations differ from this one. Pakistan is the nominated host. Since 2021, there have been at least 10 ICC board meetings. There is no report which indicates that concerns were raised about security issues and Pakistan is investing heavily in the event. Although it is understood the tournament budget has a provision for partial relocation of matches, Pakistan stands to lose significant, much-needed income from hosting, rumored to be $65 million.

India’s reasoning for not authorizing travel to Pakistan is on security grounds, which has riled the PCB. Security visits undertaken by ICC representatives have been positive. It is understood the PCB has a “master security plan,” shared with the BCCI on Oct. 10 and which does not appear to have faced any objections at the ICC’s October board meeting. The PCB is keen to show that Pakistan’s insecure reputation is in the past. It points to the fact that England, Australia and New Zealand have all toured there recently without incident.

Relations with India are of course different, based on deep-seated acrimony and tensions. These factors have been encapsulated in confusion over exactly where in Pakistan the actual trophy will be displayed on its tour of participating countries. The PCB had announced visits to cities in what India refers to as Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The ICC was very quick to reject this itinerary and announced an amended one.

Currently, the ICC is in a state of management change. On Dec. 1 it will have a new chair, Jay Shah, who has been secretary of the BCCI since 2019. It is understood he raised strong objections with the ICC on the PCB’s plans to take the trophy tour to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. There do not seem to have been any comments from the outgoing ICC chair and, in this hiatus, the ICC is receiving blame for not being sufficiently pro-active.

It is between a rock and a hard place. India now has so much power in global cricket that, without its participation in major ICC events, commercial success would be significantly diminished. India can refuse to play in Pakistan, but if Pakistan refused to play in an ICC tournament it could be hit with ICC sanctions. No wonder Pakistan feels hard done by. Furthermore, the original release date of the tournament schedule has been delayed, hindering PCB’s organizational planning.

Shah’s position is an anomalous one. It feels as if he is writing letters to himself — as BCCI secretary to his future self as ICC chair, and another as incoming ICC chair to the PCB warning it not to upset his previous employers. So much for the ICC role being designated as independent.

No doubt he would have wanted the Champions Trophy issues to have been resolved before Dec. 1. The options seem to be that: a) Pakistan relents and agrees to the hybrid model; b) the event is moved out of Pakistan, with compensation for them, but huge loss of face; c) the tournament is postponed. In the latter case, there is the significant issue of media contracts not being fulfilled.

The Champions Trophy seems to be a tournament which generates more problems than positives. It is not so much the case with world cups.

These are tournaments in which ICC members aspire to play. Qualifying pathways, though complex, are delineated. Last week, six teams battled in Group B of the Challenger Cup in Uganda as part of the route to the 2027 ODI World Cup. They have two more round robin events to complete before the top two teams emerge. Currently, Uganda and Italy top the pile.

This week, seven teams compete in Qatar for the right to progress towards the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup. One is Saudi Arabia, which is pitted against Qatar, Bahrain, Bhutan, Cambodia, Thailand and the UAE. The top two will progress to a regional final in August 2025. The gulf between the dreams of these teams and the geopolitics of the India-Pakistan stand-off is stark. India’s brinkmanship and Pakistan’s intransigence have combined to stretch the stakes to breaking point.