Iran staggers into 2021 with its many vulnerabilities exposed

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Updated 07 January 2021
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Iran staggers into 2021 with its many vulnerabilities exposed

  • Protests, US-led sanctions, targeted killings and one of the region’s worst COVID-19 outbreaks battered Iran in 2020
  • The regime’s annus horribilis may be over, but it could face more pressure to change its behavior given the leverage the West now has

MISSOURI, US: Iran’s woes during 2020 proved worse than most. The year began with shockwaves from the fuel price hike protests (which broke out in late November 2019) still reverberating all across the country.

Then on Jan. 3, the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s regional “shadow commander.” On edge due to fear of another American or Israeli attack, Iranian air defense forces then mistakenly shot down a Ukraine-bound civilian airliner minutes shortly after it took off in Tehran, killing all 176 people on board.

Almost one year later, authorities in Tehran have still not managed to rectify the problems or vulnerabilities that emerged so starkly in January 2020.

Key Iranian figures still look like easy targets for American or Israeli covert operations, as evidenced by the November 27 assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Fakhrizadeh was in Tehran when an AI-controlled machine gun from another vehicle targeted his car.

Three months earlier the Israelis also killed a top Al-Qaeda commander, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, who had found refuge in Iran.

Like Fakhrizadeh, Al-Masri was gunned down in broad daylight in the streets of Tehran. In this case, the assassins escaped on motorcycle.

Most observers believe the Israelis conducted the assassination at America’s behest.




Top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in November. (AFP)

Al-Masri masterminded the 1998 attacks on US embassies in Africa, and his killing occurred on Aug. 7, which was the anniversary of the embassy attacks.

As the Iranian economy remains belly-up from American-led sanctions, the same popular discontents that caused the late 2019 protests continue to simmer.

Iranian authorities’ rush to intimidate and silence protestors led them in September to hang popular Iranian wrestler Navid Afkari.

Afkari was only one of many executed by the regime in 2020 for what most viewed as political crimes.

Worldwide condemnations of Iran increased accordingly. At the UN, Canada brought forward a successful resolution in November condemning the human-rights record of the regime.

Referring back to the protests at the end of 2019, Amnesty International completed research concluding that the Iranian state killed 304 people, including children, during the protests and arrested thousands more.




Iran either lacks the ability or fears the consequences of direct attacks on its more serious enemies. (AFP)

Iran responded to the UN resolution and other criticisms by claiming they have “no legal validity” and otherwise ignoring them.

In response to the assassination of some of the regime’s most key figures, Tehran vowed serious retaliation — but shows little capacity for following through on such threats against America or Israel.

Iranian cat-and-mouse games with the US fleet in the Gulf in 2020 did nothing but raise tensions a bit, at the same time that the Americans seized a number of Iranian vessels transporting fuel to Venezuela in August.

Last week, as Israel sent one of its submarines through the Suez Canal towards the Gulf, Iran again replied with only threats.
 

Throughout 2020 Israel continued to hit Iranian personnel in Syria with air strikes and missiles.

All the while, Tehran seemed impotent to stop them. Under such circumstances Iran’s 2020 launch of its first military satellite, the unveiling of new missiles, and holding annual war games only looked like so much bravado.

The September-November Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan added to Tehran’s headaches during this period.

Iran used to play an important role in the Caucasus region and even mediated past disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They have since been eclipsed by Turkey and Russia, with no say in the latest war or its resolution.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even visited his victorious allies in Baku in December and read a nationalist Azeri poem there which seemingly makes claims upon the Azeri region of northwest Iran. The reaction from Tehran was loud but otherwise toothless.




Since then COVID-19 has killed over 50,000 Iranians and infected some 1.1 million. (AFP)

On top of the economic and political problems, COVID-19 appears to have hit Iran harder than most. In Feb. 2020 — before anywhere else in the Middle East — Iran experienced its first wave of the virus. Since then COVID-19 has killed over 50,000 Iranians and infected some 1.1 million.

The virus led to economic shutdowns and closures that competed with US-led sanctions to see which could damage the country more.

With a vaccine now coming out, Iranian authorities are accusing the US of blocking their access to vaccinations as well as to international loans to help combat it.

All these difficulties highlight a central, inescapable reality for 2020: The Iranian state saw itself significantly weakened and incapable of protecting, much less securing, its principal interests.

Although the regime in Tehran remains quite capable of kidnapping or killing Iranian dissidents abroad (such as a Paris-based dissident leader recently kidnapped from Iraq and a Balochi activist murdered in Canada last week), the same does not hold true for American and Israeli targets.

Iran either lacks the ability or fears the consequences of direct attacks on its more serious enemies.

Even indirect responses have serious limitations. Iran’s foes assassinated Soleimani after his supposed role in spurring on Iraqi Shiite militias to launch rockets on American bases in that country.

Any dramatic Iranian move to avenge attacks on its people — even if carried out by an Iranian proxy rather than Tehran itself — thus appears too risky for a regime so outclassed by the Americans and the Israelis.




Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (AFP)

Less dramatic Iranian stratagems, such as pressuring the Shiite-led government in Baghdad to evict American forces from Iraq, likewise seem limited in terms of what they can accomplish.

Iraqis, including Shiite ones, have their own interests and problems, leading to them to continue working with Americans in Iraq.

If the incoming Biden administration in the US proves savvier than Obama and his advisers were regarding Iran, they will take this Iranian weakness into account.

Although President-elect Biden has clearly expressed his desire to return to the nuclear accord’s framework agreement with Iran, he may do so more carefully than his predecessors.

The Obama administration’s mistake with Iran involved treating the regime there as if it were a deer that might get “spooked” away from negotiations.

As a result, the Obama administration halted all kinds of US anti-Iran efforts unrelated to the negotiations.

This included, for example, shutting down a major multi-year Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) investigation into Lebanese Hezbollah’s international money laundering.

The net effect of Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry’s efforts to “encourage negotiations” was to empower Iran and give it carte blanche to do whatever it liked.

A more sophisticated Biden administration policy would be to consider negotiating to resume the nuclear deal with Iran while truly keeping other unrelated matters separate.

This would mean maintaining a good deal of US pressure as well as non-nuclear related sanctions on Iran. In effect, the Iranians would receive at the most a partial lifting of sanctions for abiding by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (a.k.a. the “nuclear deal”).

If the Iranians wanted relief from other sanctions, such as the ones applied for supporting terrorism, they would have to adjust their behavior accordingly.

In the final analysis, if the incoming Biden administration proves sufficiently savvy to take advantage of Iran’s annus horribilis, they could thus conceivably contain both Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions and its more destabilizing policies in the region.

Such a more nuanced approach would in turn reassure other Middle Eastern allies that Iran is not simply getting its Obama-issued carte blanche back.

• David Romano is Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University

Soleimani’s shadow
Qassem Soleimani left a trail of death and destruction in his wake as head of Iran’s Quds Force … until his assassination on Jan. 3, 2020. Yet still, his legacy of murderous interference continues to haunt the region

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Explosions heard in Sudanese city of Port Sudan, Reuters witness reports

Updated 06 May 2025
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Explosions heard in Sudanese city of Port Sudan, Reuters witness reports

Explosions were heard in the Sudanese city of Port Sudan early on Tuesday, a Reuters witness reported, adding that the reason and the exact place of the explosions were unclear.
During the ongoing civil war in Sudan, Port Sudan has become home to the country’s primary airport, army headquarters and a seaport.


Syrian president expected to visit France soon

Updated 06 May 2025
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Syrian president expected to visit France soon

  • Sharaa in February received an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron to visit France in the ‘coming weeks’

Syria’s President Ahmed Al-Sharaa is expected to visit France soon, a statement by the Syrian president’s office said, without specifying a date.
Sharaa in February received an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron to visit France in the “coming weeks.”


Trump, asked about Israel’s Gaza plans, says US will help on food

President Donald Trump speaks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, May 5, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
Updated 05 May 2025
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Trump, asked about Israel’s Gaza plans, says US will help on food

  • UN and aid organizations have warned of the humanitarian catastrophe on the ground, with famine again looming after two months of Israeli blockade

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump repeated a US pledge to help get food to Palestinians in Gaza when he was asked at the White House on Monday about Israeli plans for an expanded offensive in the territory.
Trump did not offer his views on Israel’s operations. He made the comments to reporters in the Oval Office.

Israel’s security cabinet approved the expansion of military operations in Gaza including the “conquest” of the Palestinian territory, an official said Monday, after the army called up tens of thousands of reservists for the offensive.
It comes as the United Nations and aid organizations have repeatedly warned of the humanitarian catastrophe on the ground, with famine again looming after more than two months of a total Israeli blockade.
The Israeli official said the expanded operations “will include, among other things, the conquest of the Gaza Strip and the holding of the territories, moving the Gaza population south for their protection.”
A different senior security official said “a central component of the plan is a large-scale evacuation of the entire Gazan population from the fighting zones... to areas in southern Gaza.”
The plan, approved by the cabinet overnight, comes amid a push by Israel for Palestinians to leave the territory.
A “voluntary transfer program for Gaza residents... will be part of the operation’s goals,” the senior security official added.
The European Union voiced concern and urged restraint from Israel, saying the plan “will result in further casualties and suffering for the Palestinian people.”
Israel resumed major operations across Gaza on March 18 amid deadlock over how to proceed with a two-month ceasefire that had largely halted the war with Hamas, which was sparked by the militants’ October 2023 attack.
Israel has since carried out intensive aerial bombardments and expanded ground operations across the Palestinian territory.
Gaza rescuers on Monday said Israeli air strikes killed at least 19 people.


How Syria can overcome sectarian unrest to rebuild trust and national unity

Updated 05 May 2025
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How Syria can overcome sectarian unrest to rebuild trust and national unity

  • A mosaic of faiths and ethnicities, Syria is grappling with violence that is putting transitional government to the test
  • Syrian observers and experts urge the authorities to engage meaningfully with minorities to promote national healing

LONDON: In the Damascus suburb of Ashrafiyat Sahnaya, the sounds of prayer bells and muezzins used to blend peacefully into the rhythm of daily life. Here, families from Syria’s diverse communities — Sunni, Druze, Christian, and Alawite — shared neighbors’ bread and exchanged Eid and Christmas greetings with equal sincerity. But that culture of mutual respect, already strained by more than a decade of civil war, is now on the brink of disappearing altogether.

A small audio clip uploaded online in late April was all it took to set off a chain of disruptive events. Within days, Syria’s fragile social compact broke down in places thought to be stable. Violent clashes erupted between armed groups and civilians. Security forces, once seen as protectors in these moments of tension, were either absent or accused of collusion. Entire neighborhoods were transformed into battlefields.

For observers of Syria’s long and bloodied path since 2011, the resurgence of sectarian strife in recent months is a warning less about the past than about the road ahead. With a transitional government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa trying to navigate a volatile political landscape, and with major world powers distracted by other crises, some of Syria’s minorities are wondering where they belong in the nation’s future.

Druze clerics and relatives carry coffins of members of the Syrian minority who were killed in recent sectarian clashes. (AFP)

The message of these regional analysts can be summed up thus: The Syrian government must be willing to listen to its citizens and open the door to political change — not military solutions or rule by militias. It must embrace and engage the country’s diverse ethnic and religious communities and commit to political inclusion.

The latest wave of unrest began on April 26 when the audio clip — whose authenticity remains unverified — circulated across messaging platforms. The man accused of criticizing Prophet Muhammad in the voice recording was Marwan Kiwan, a respected Druze scholar known for his initiatives in interfaith dialogue. Kiwan quickly issued a video denial, saying: “Whoever made this is evil and wants to incite strife between components of the Syrian people.” His words did little to contain the rage.

The Druze, a small religious community that makes up about 3 percent of Syria’s population, have long walked a delicate line between asserting autonomy and pledging loyalty to the state. But by April 28, fighting had broken out in Jaramana and Ashrafiyat Sahnaya — suburbs once considered models of coexistence — between militants and local Druze groups.

INNUMBER

• 50% Minorities (Alawites, Kurds, Druze and others) as a fraction of Syria’s population.

• 60% Fraction of the population who were food insecure in 2021.

• $100bn Real GDP (purchasing power parity) of Syria in 2022.

Source: CIA’s The World Factbook

The violence quickly spread south, to villages in Suweida — Syria’s Druze heartland — such as Ira, Rasas and Al-Soura Al-Kubra. At least 100 people were killed over the course of a week. Mortar shelling and heavy machine-gun fire struck residential areas. On Thursday, Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hajari condemned the violence as an “unjustifiable genocidal campaign” against his community. He called for international intervention to help restore peace. By Friday, May 2, at least 100 people, including civilians, were reportedly dead.

Other Druze religious figures took a more conciliatory tone. In a joint statement, they affirmed the community’s “commitment to a country that includes all Syrians, a nation that is free of strife,” the Associated Press news agency reported. They also urged the government to secure the vital Suweida-Damascus highway, a critical lifeline increasingly targeted by militants.

Christian and Muslim clerics attend the funeral of members of Syria’s Druze community who were killed in recent sectarian clashes. (AFP)

The authorities issued statements blaming the violence on “outlaw groups,” while local activists and human rights monitors accused pro-government militias of targeting Druze neighborhoods.

Amid the chaos, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that his government had carried out airstrikes near the presidential palace in Damascus on May 2 to “send a message” following the attacks on Syria’s Druze population. For many Syrians, this only added to the confusion — and to the perception that sectarian politics had become a tool for foreign manipulation.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, dismissed Israel’s posturing. “Israel has threatened the regime of Al-Sharaa by landing a few warning bombs, but it cannot protect the Druze,” he told Arab News. Worse, he added, the overtures could backfire. “Israel’s intervention on behalf of the Druze compromises them in the minds of many Syrians, who now accuse them of treason.”

Ghassan Ibrahim, founder of the Global Arab Network, went further in his criticism of Israel’s role. “Israel doesn’t care about the Syrian Druze,” he said. “It focuses on the Druze within its borders and projects a false message that it wants to help the community in Syria, rather than offering meaningful support.”

In a statement on Friday, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria said continued Israeli airstrikes could cause greater civilian harm and fragmentation.

Members of Syria’s security deploy at the entrance of Jaramana near Damascus. (AFP)

While the situation “remains fluid,” it noted that a tentative agreement had reportedly been reached between leaders in Suweida and authorities in Damascus. Still, it stressed the government’s obligation to protect all civilians within its jurisdiction.

The commission also pointed to earlier violence in Syria’s coastal areas in March as evidence of the country’s fragile security and the urgent need for de-escalation.

Regional analysts echoed the commission’s concerns, warning that foreign interference and deepening internal divisions jeopardize chances of long-term peace. Many urged the government to double down on reconciliation and called on the international community to support inclusive, Syrian-led solutions.

For Ibrahim, the true path to peace lies not in foreign intervention but in inclusive, homegrown governance. “The less negative external involvement we have, the better it is for Syrians to sit down and talk,” he said. “That process still requires support, including engagement with the UN and other organizations, to help Syrians find a path toward political compromise.”

He emphasized that stabilizing the country requires sidelining armed groups and initiating a credible national dialogue. “This needs support from Arab states, neighboring countries, the international community — and even Israel, which must halt its involvement in the conflict,” he told Arab News.

Ibrahim urged the new government to break with extremist allies and pursue political reform. “The Syrian government must be willing to listen to its citizens and open the door to political change — not military solutions or rule by militias,” he said. “It must reach out to minorities and embrace Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious fabric.”

Members of Syria’s security forces deploy in an area near the Syrian capital Damascus. (AFP)

He also called on the government to engage with Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious communities and commit to political inclusion. “Syria has always been home to different communities, and it must remain that way,” he said, stressing that a more inclusive approach could “unlock reconstruction aid, ease sanctions, and rebuild trust in state institutions.”

Such measures, according to Ibrahim, would not only incentivize reform but also reassure minorities that the international community remains committed to their protection.

“Western governments would prefer a Syria that aligns with the West rather than fall under extremist influence again,” he said. “At the moment, it doesn’t appear that global powers are paying much attention to Syria — there is no real road map, guidance or incentives being offered. Syria today is being treated like Afghanistan after the withdrawal from Kabul — largely abandoned.”

Landis, the US academic, believes Western leverage over Syria remains limited. “The only leverage that the West has is sanctions, which are a double-edged sword; they hurt the people even more than the government,” he said.

Though many sanctions were eased in 2025, the US State Department reiterated in April that any further relief would require a verifiable crackdown on terrorism, disarmament of chemical weapons, and the protection of minorities.

Members of Syria’s Druze community chant slogans in Damascus during the funeral of people killed during clashes with Syrian security forces. (AFP)

Landis blamed the government for not hesitating “to call for a general mobilization to send irresponsible militias to go kill Alawites on the coast, where some 1,700, mostly unarmed civilians, were murdered,” adding: “Now, the Defense (Ministry) Forces have attacked the Druze, with no serious effort to stop the mobilization against them.”

Within Syria’s civil society, some analysts believe small, symbolic actions could yet help ensure accountability and rebuild trust. Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, pointed to one viral video in which an armed fighter is seen forcibly shaving a Druze man’s moustache — an act widely viewed as a cultural insult.

“A gesture as simple as identifying that individual, ensuring they apologize publicly, and bringing them before a court could send a powerful message,” he said. “These symbolic steps matter.”

He noted that various actors had committed abuses, including attacks on government security personnel. “That’s completely unacceptable,” he told Arab News.

According to Shaar, the broader goal should be to foster a sense of equal protection under the law for all Syrians. “That feeling has not been consistently present,” he said, emphasizing that the state “sets the tone for justice and accountability.”

The Druze have long walked a delicate line between asserting autonomy and pledging loyalty to the state. (AFP)

Camille Otrakji, a Syrian analyst and longtime observer of the regime’s internal dynamics, believes the government is caught between contradictory pressures. “A significant gap — in values, priorities, and trust — persists between the government’s conservative base and a broader segment of Syrians, including ethnic and religious minorities as well as many Arabs, who favor a more inclusive and less ideological vision for the country,” he said.

Otrakji said while the government had acted to contain sectarian tensions, “the recurring unrest has deepened doubts — both inside Syria and abroad — about the government’s ability to maintain a stable and inclusive order.”

According to him, both sides of the political divide — government and opposition — are lobbying Western powers, with the regime portraying itself as a stabilizing force and its critics warning of ideological extremism within the ruling bloc.

“For Western policymakers, the path forward remains deeply uncertain,” he told Arab News. “Some argue that, however imperfect, the Al-Sharaa government represents the only viable vehicle for preserving a measure of stability in post-Assad Syria.

“Others see in the current leadership signs of deeper fragmentation and are preparing for the possibility of yet another period of disruptive — and potentially violent — transition.”

The resurgence of sectarian strife in recent months is a warning less about the past than about the road ahead. (AFP)

History has shown that sectarian wounds, once opened, do not heal easily. Iraq and Lebanon offer cautionary tales of what happens when multi-ethnic societies are left to drift without strong civic foundations. Syria’s challenge is arguably greater: It must not only contain current unrest but also address the grievances of millions of citizens displaced, detained or bereaved over five decades of Assad dynasty rule.

Syria has historically been a place where multiple religions and cultures coexisted — not always perfectly, but with dignity. That memory is still alive in millions of Syrian hearts. Unsurprisingly, many voices are emerging, calling for a tolerant vision that goes beyond sect or party. It is a vision rooted in Syria’s pluralistic past and projected into an as yet unknown future.

 


Israel strikes Yemen after Houthi attack on Ben Gurion airport

A Yemeni man checks the rubble of a building hit in US strikes in the northern province of Saada on April 29, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 05 May 2025
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Israel strikes Yemen after Houthi attack on Ben Gurion airport

  • Houthi-run Al-Masirah television said that “US-Israeli aggression targets with six strikes the port of Hodeida” on Yemen’s western coast

SANAA: Israel struck Yemen on Monday in what the Houthis said was a joint raid with the United States, a day after the militia claimed missile fire at Israel’s main airport.
The Houthi-run Al-Masirah television said six air strikes hit the port of Hodeida, on Yemen’s western coast, and reported an attack on Bajil district in the same province, blaming “US-Israeli aggression” for both.
Israel confirmed it had carried out the strikes, while a US official denied any part in the raid.
The Israeli military said its “fighter jets struck terror targets belonging to the Houthi terrorist regime along Yemen’s coastline and further inland.”
In a statement, it said the Houthi-held Hodeida port “is used for the transfer of Iranian weapons, military equipment, and other equipment intended for terrorist purposes.”
In Bajil, the military said it hit a “concrete plant... which functions as a significant economic resource for the Houthis.”
A US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that “US forces did not participate in the Israeli strikes on Yemen today.”
Anees Al-Asbahi, spokesman for the Houthi-run health ministry, said in a post on X that 21 people were wounded in the attack on Bajil.
Earlier the Houthis’ Saba news agency said US strikes hit the capital Sanaa and the airport road, wounding 16 people according to the rebels’ health ministry.
Al-Masirah reported another four strikes in Sanaa and seven in the northern governorate of Al-Jawf.
The reported strikes come after Israel said a missile fired from Yemen on Sunday struck inside the perimeter of Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv for the first time.
The Houthis claimed responsibility, saying they fired a “hypersonic ballistic missile” at Ben Gurion airport, Israel’s main international gateway.
The militia said it “will work to impose a comprehensive air blockade on the Israeli enemy by repeatedly targeting airports, most notably... Ben Gurion airport.”
The missile gouged a wide crater in the ground near an airport parking lot, injuring six people and forcing airlines to suspend flights.

The Houthis, who control swathes of Yemen including Sanaa, have launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and Red Sea shipping throughout the Gaza war that began in October 2023, saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians.
US strikes against the Houthis began under former president Joe Biden but have intensified under his successor Donald Trump.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday vowed a tough response against the Houthis, as well as its main backer Iran, over the airport attack.
In a video published on Telegram, Netanyahu said Israel had “acted against” the Houthis in the past and “will act in the future.”
“It will not happen in one bang, but there will be many bangs,” he added.
On social media platform X, Netanyahu said Israel would also respond to Iran at “a time and place of our choosing.”
Iran on Monday denied supporting the attack, calling it an “independent decision” by the Houthis taken in solidarity with the Palestinian people.
Reacting to Netanyahu’s threats, the Islamic republic warned it would retaliate against any attack on its territory.
“Iran underlines (its) firm determination... to defend itself,” the Iranian foreign ministry said, warning Israel and the United States of “consequences.”
An Israeli military spokesperson told AFP that Sunday’s attack was “the first time” that a missile has directly struck inside the airport perimeter.
An AFP journalist inside the airport during the attack said he heard a “loud bang” at around 9:35 am (0635 GMT), adding that the “reverberation was very strong.”
Flights resumed after being halted briefly, with the aviation authority saying on Sunday that Ben Gurion was “open and operational.”
Some international airlines have canceled flights, including SWISS which extended its suspension until Sunday.