Snail-paced progress in intra-Afghan talks
https://arab.news/bctfm
The intra-Afghan peace negotiations recently resumed in Doha, Qatar after a 20-day break, but there has been no real progress in finalizing the agenda before formal talks could begin on substantive issues.
The negotiating teams of the Afghan government-led Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan have a different set of priorities concerning the agenda. Both want their priority agenda points to be discussed first. Reaching a consensus will not be easy and will take time as happened earlier when the two sides spent nearly three months to agree on the rules of procedures for conducting talks.
The apparent deadlock in ongoing negotiations and the conspicuous absence of certain top Taliban and Kabul officials when the Doha meetings resumed on January 5 prompted sections of the media to report delay and postponement of the talks.
However, Taliban spokesman Dr Mohammad Naeem was quick to deny the reports and emphasize that the talks were continuing even though negotiators sometimes take a break to hold consultations and seek guidance from their respective leadership. He added that a preparatory meeting decided that the teams appointed by the two sides to discuss the agenda would begin their work in the coming days.
Obviously, the media reports were based on information leaked by the negotiators. Earlier, it was reported that negotiations couldn’t resume in time as some Taliban negotiators had yet to return to Qatar from Pakistan, which had invited a Taliban delegation led by the group’s deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar for formal talks.
In the past also, some Taliban negotiators stayed back in Pakistan to meet their family members and Shura members after every official visit to Islamabad. However, the group maintained that all 21 Taliban negotiators were present in Doha as scheduled and ready to start the negotiations.
Even if the two sides manage to finalize the agenda, there is no guarantee that quick progress will be made on contentious issues. The delegation from Kabul has been insisting on discussing and agreeing to a ceasefire first, but this isn’t the top priority for Taliban, who want to discuss Shariah, or Islamic rule, as part of the future political roadmap for Afghanistan.
Even if the two sides manage to finalize the agenda, there is no guarantee that quick progress will be made on contentious issues. The delegation from Kabul has been insisting on discussing and agreeing to a ceasefire first, but this isn’t the top priority for Taliban.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
Though there have been reports that formation of an interim government could also be put on the agenda, Taliban have denied having made such a demand or having raised it during discussions held to date. Both President Ashraf Ghani and his electoral rival-turned-coalition partner, Abdullah Abdullah who is head of the High Council for National Reconciliation leading the peace process, have rejected the idea of an interim government. Ghani was quoted as saying that he will hand power over to an elected president only even though the February 29, 2020 Taliban-US peace deal envisaged that a new government would come into being as a result of intra-Afghan negotiations.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special envoy for Afghanistan Reconciliation, also reached Qatar recently after visits to Afghanistan and Pakistan in a bid to persuade all major stakeholders to play their role in achieving progress in the talks. Unlike his frequent visits to Kabul in the past, no meeting was scheduled for him with President Ghani. This gave rise to speculation that Ghani was unhappy with Khalilzad for discussing the issue of an interim government.
There has been no confirmation that this was the reason, and not scheduling or health reasons for the lack of a meeting between the Afghan president and Khalilzad.
The absence of a breakthrough in Doha talks could also be due to the wait-and-see approach adopted by the two sides when President Donald Trump’s four-year term is about to end and Joseph Biden is scheduled to take charge on January 20.
The change of administration will likely lead to a review of the Afghanistan policy even though no drastic changes are expected in the context of the withdrawal of American forces by May 2021 under the Doha deal provided the Taliban abide by commitments made in the conditions-based agreement.
The Biden administration is expected to push Taliban to agree to the presence of a small US counter-terrorism force to tackle Daesh, Al-Qaeda and other militant groups to ensure Afghanistan doesn’t again become a safe haven for militants. Still, reaching an agreement on this issue won’t be easy as Taliban want complete withdrawal of all foreign forces by May as agreed upon in the February 2020 agreement.
Another reason for the snail-paced progress in the talks is the rising violence in Afghanistan just when American troop levels plunged to a record low of 2,500 during the two-decades of war in January 15.
Though Daesh has claimed responsibility for some attacks, Taliban issued denials or kept quiet on other occasions.
Lately though, Taliban claimed responsibility for major attacks against government forces in Herat, Kandahar and elsewhere by arguing that this was revenge for airstrikes that killed scores of civilians. The surge in Taliban attacks could also be a way to pressure the US and Afghanistan to release remaining Taliban prisoners and remove their names from the US Security Council’s ‘blacklist’ as per the Doha agreement.
– Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998.
Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
