Jet fuel demand holds clues to world economy’s health

1 / 3
The Middle East’s biggest airline, Emirates, was able to fall back on its large cash reserves and the financial reputation it has in the international banking community, as well as the support it received from the Dubai government. (Getty Images)
2 / 3
Other airlines are not in Emirates’ favorable cash position. Dozens have gone bankrupt during the pandemic. (Getty Images/AFP )
3 / 3
A top priority of airlines now is to ensure greater fuel efficiency to cut down cost. (Getty images/AFP photo)
Short Url
Updated 01 February 2021
Follow

Jet fuel demand holds clues to world economy’s health

  • Demand for jet fuel is a key indicator of the aviation industry’s condition and the GCC bloc’s economic health
  • Regional airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways were super-connectors in what is now a disconnected global economy

DUBAI: The long-awaited global economic recovery is awaiting take-off — in a literal as well as a figurative sense. All the experts, from august institutions like the IMF down to the smallest of small and medium-sized enterprises, are agreed that 2021 will see a significant recovery from the lockdown recessions of last year. But one factor above all others is still casting a shadow over the pace and strength of that turnaround: the global aviation business.

Fewer passengers traveling for business or for leisure has a direct effect on the global economy. Less air cargo flying around the world directly impacts world trade and business activity. Some 90 million people were employed in aviation around the world in 2019, and the sector comprised nearly 5 percent of the global economic growth, according to figures from trade organizations.

If global aviation was a country, it would have a GDP of $3.5 trillion, and would be as big as the Netherlands.

But that was before the pandemic effectively stopped the world flying in the spring of 2020. Ranjith Raja, oil research manager for the Middle East at data provider Refinitiv, told Arab News: “COVID-19 has impacted almost all industries globally, but the airline industry has been one of the worst hit sectors. With rising skepticism surrounding traveling and global lockdowns, the passenger industry came close to a standstill at one point.”

For the Middle East, the aviation-business collapse has been a double whammy. Airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways are super-connectors in a global economy that has become increasingly disconnected during the pandemic.

But they and other global airlines are also big consumers of the region’s most valuable commodity — crude oil, in the form of highly refined jet fuel. In a normal year, aviation would account for nearly 10 per cent of global oil demand. That was reduced dramatically in 2020.

The statistics tell the depressing story. By the end of April, airlines across the world had virtually ceased passenger operations. The aviation industry’s key metric — revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) or the amount of cash-generating flying going on in the world — crashed by more than 94 per cent — unprecedented since the numbers were first calculated in 1990.

Even a mild recovery over the summer months was deflated by the resurgent second wave of the disease toward the end of the year. By November, global passenger traffic was still nearly halved from the previous year. The result has spelt financial disaster for the aviation industry.

"Financially, 2020 will go down as the worst year in the history of aviation. On an average, every day of this year will add $230 million to industry losses. In total, that is a loss of $84.3 billion. It means that—based on an estimate of 2.2 billion passengers in 2020—airlines would lose $37.54 per passenger,” said Alexandre de Juniac, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association.




In a normal year, aviation would account for nearly 10 per cent of global oil demand. That was reduced dramatically in 2020. (Shutterstock)

To take the example of the Middle East’s biggest airline, Emirates, this has had a dramatic effect. With passenger numbers down by three quarters in the autumn, revenues fell 75 percent in the first half of 2020-21 year, leading to a loss of $3.8 billion for the first time in three decades. The airline had cut at least a quarter of its staff by the midway point of the financial year.

It was able to fall back on its big cash reserves, built up during the good years, as well as the sound financial reputation it has in the international banking community and — not least — the support of the Dubai government, which recognized Emirates’ vital contribution to the economy with a $2 billion injection.

Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, the chief executive, called the downturn “unprecedented”, but added: “We expect a steep recovery in travel demand once a COVID-19 vaccine is available, and we are readying ourselves to serve that rebound.”

Other airlines are not in Emirates’ favorable cash position. Globally, dozens have gone bankrupt during the pandemic, while all have had to reassess their long-term strategies. A top priority here is to ensure greater fuel efficiency, which in turn means smaller, more economical aircraft using less jet fuel.




A top priority of airlines now is to ensure greater fuel efficiency to cut down cost. (Getty images/AFP photo)

The long-term trend in aviation fuel consumption will inevitably be downwards, not just as jet engines become more efficient, but also as new forms of propulsion are developed. The European aerospace giant Airbus announced at the height of the aviation collapse that it was working on a hydrogen-fueled engine, and others are following suit with similarly innovative technologies.

But those developments are some way in the future. For now, the oil and aviation industries will have to just get along together in a vastly different market, prone to greater volatility.

This was demonstrated to acute effect at the height of the pandemic crisis as the air fleets were grounded. Asia gets most of the crude for their jet fuel from the Middle East, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but because the early lockdowns were most intense in Asia, prices of these products crashed as demand dried up.

Europe — which also sources its aviation fuels from the Middle East and which at that stage was confident it would ride out the COVID tide — took advantage of the cheap prices to fill up on jet, according to data from Refinitiv.

As European airlines were grounded in their turn as the pandemic hit hard, this exacerbated the global oil glut, the effects of which are still being felt. “In the absence of real demand for the fuel, the imported volumes into Europe ended up in storage, which in turn swelled the inland and floating storage,” said Raja.

That trend has rebalanced towards Asia as economic recovery accelerates there, especially in China, and as Europe’s pandemic problem surges and lockdowns are reimposed. But it shows the importance of jet fuel as a key component for overall oil demand, still the most important economic indicator for Gulf economies.




Other airlines are not in Emirates’ favorable cash position. Dozens have gone bankrupt during the pandemic. (Getty Images/AFP )

The analysts are continuing to assess the full damage for 2020 to the fuel market, and calculating when it might begin to recover. The International Energy Agency said recently that low demand for jet fuel will make up the lion’s share of the shortfall in demand for oil this year.

Oil traders are taking a hard-nosed view on when demand for jet fuel will return to pre-endemic levels. Mike Muller, head of Asian operations for the world’s largest independent oil trading firm Vitol, recently told a forum, organized by the information consultancy Gulf Intelligence, that much depended on the speed of the roll out of vaccines.

He said that a recovery in Asian demand for jet fuel would only begin in the third quarter of this year, when immunization had reached a significant number of people. “"By then it is likely that we'll have sufficient immunization or herd immunity, or a combination of people who have suffered and already had the virus and who have been immunized,” Muller said.

“That is my hope, but I do think it will take until late in the third he quarter. Looking at bookings for holidays in Europe, the Americas and Asia, it’s all flat on its back still.”

Recovery cannot happen fast enough, for the airlines and for the regional economies that depend on demand for jet fuel, among other oil products, as their main revenue streams. The global economy will only fly again when the world’s airlines are also back in the air.

______________

Twitter: @frankkanedubai


Saudi Arabia raises $3.09bn in sukuk issuances for December

Updated 5 sec ago
Follow

Saudi Arabia raises $3.09bn in sukuk issuances for December

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center has successfully concluded its riyal-denominated sukuk issuance for December, raising SR11.59 billion ($3.09 billion).

This marks a substantial 239.88 percent increase from the previous month, when the Kingdom raised SR3.41 billion in sukuk. Saudi Arabia had raised SR7.83 billion in October and SR2.6 billion in September.

Sukuk, which are Shariah-compliant Islamic bonds, provide investors with partial ownership of the issuer’s assets until the bonds mature. The rise in sukuk issuance aligns with positive global market projections.

A Moody’s report released in September forecasted that the global sukuk market would remain robust in 2024, with total issuance expected to reach between $200 billion and $210 billion, an increase from just under $200 billion in 2023.

The December sukuk issuance by NDMC was structured into four tranches, each with varying maturities. The largest tranche, valued at SR5.58 billion, is set to mature in 2027. Another tranche, worth SR3.90 billion, will mature in 2029, while a third tranche, valued at SR706 million, is due for repayment in 2031. The final tranche, amounting to SR1.4 billion, will mature in 2034.

This surge in sukuk issuance comes as the Kingdom is expected to lead the Gulf Cooperation Council region in bond and sukuk maturities between 2025 and 2029.

A report by Kamco Invest, released earlier this month, projected that Saudi Arabia’s total bond and sukuk maturities during this period would reach $168 billion, with government-issued bonds and sukuk accounting for $110.2 billion of that total.

In December, Fitch Ratings also highlighted that the GCC debt capital market crossed the $1 trillion threshold in outstanding debt by the end of November.

Earlier in October, Fitch had noted that the growth in sukuk issuance was driven by improving financing conditions, especially after the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut to 5 percent in September. Looking ahead, Fitch expects interest rates to decline further, reaching 4.5 percent by the end of 2024 and 3.5 percent by the end of 2025, which is likely to spur more sukuk issuances in the short term.


Saudi, Nigerian ministers hold talks to strengthen economic relations

Updated 24 December 2024
Follow

Saudi, Nigerian ministers hold talks to strengthen economic relations

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Nigeria held high-level talks to discuss financial and economic developments, focusing on regional and global challenges, as well as opportunities for collaboration. 

The meeting, led by the kingdom’s Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan, included a delegation from the African country headed by Finance Minister Wale Edun and Budget and Economic Planning Minister Abubakar Atiku Bagudu.

The discussions aimed to strengthen economic ties and explore joint strategies to navigate evolving financial landscapes. 

This comes as trade between Nigeria and Saudi Arabia showed a significant imbalance in 2023, with Nigeria exporting goods worth $76.29 million to the Kingdom, while imports from Saudi Arabia amounted to $1.51 billion, according to the UN COMTRADE database on international trade.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,914

Updated 24 December 2024
Follow

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,914

  • Parallel market dropped by 0.11% to 30,920.40
  • MSCI Tadawul Index shed 3.17 points to close at 1,496.90

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Tuesday, as it shed 34.84 points, or 0.29 percent, to close at 11,913.95. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market also dropped by 0.11 percent to 30,920.40, while the MSCI Tadawul Index shed 3.17 points to close at 1,496.90. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR3.83 billion ($1.02 billion), with 64 of the listed stocks advancing, while 168 declining. 

The best-performing stock of the day was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., as its share price surged by 9.09 percent to SR0.48. 

Other top performers were Saudi Chemical Co., increasing 4.66 percent to SR9.66, and Shatirah House Restaurant Co., rising 4.44 percent to SR21.30. 

The share price of United Electronics Co. slipped by 6.77 percent to close at SR92.20. 

First Milling Co. announced the successful expansion of its Mill A, boosting production capacity from 300 tonnes to 550 tonnes per day. 

In a Tadawul filing, the company, which produces flour, feed, and bran, said that the financial impact of the expansion will be reflected in the fourth quarter of this year. 

The company’s share price gained 1.35 percent, closing at SR59.90. 

Banque Saudi Fransi announced that its shareholders approved a 107.4 percent capital increase, raising its capital from SR12.05 billion to SR25 billion. 

The bank said that the decision was finalized during an extraordinary general meeting held on Dec. 23. 

Banque Saudi Fransi’s share price dropped 0.62 percent to close at SR15.94. 

Meanwhile, retail investors began subscribing to 3.47 million shares of Saudi-based online beauty brand Nice One on the main market. 

The company announced on Dec. 16 that it set the final offer price for its initial public offering at SR35 per share, aiming to raise SR1.2 billion. 

The retail subscription period, which started on Dec. 24, will run through Dec. 25. 

Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority approved Ejada Systems Co.’s request to float 20.05 million shares, representing 45 percent of its share capital. 

In a statement on Tadawul, the company said that its prospectus will be published well ahead of the subscription period. 

It will provide investors with key information, including financial statements, business activities, and management details to support informed investment decisions. 

The CMA approved a request by Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co. to float 130.78 million shares, representing 9.09 percent of the firm’s share capital. 

The authority also approved Ratio Specialty Co. to float 5 million shares, equal to 25 percent of the company’s share capital, on the Kingdom’s parallel market. 


EBRD supports Africa’s largest onshore wind project in Egypt with $275m loan

Updated 24 December 2024
Follow

EBRD supports Africa’s largest onshore wind project in Egypt with $275m loan

  • 1.1 GW wind farm in Egypt will reduce annual CO2 emissions by more than 2.2 million tonnes
  • Loan to Suez Wind consists of $200 million A loan from the EBRD and $75 million in B loans from Arab Bank and Standard Chartered

JEDDAH: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is supporting Egypt in launching Africa’s largest wind farm, backed by a $275 million syndicated loan.

The loan to Suez Wind consists of a $ 200 million A loan from the EBRD and $ 75 million in B loans from Arab Bank and Standard Chartered, the international financial institution said in a press release.

It added that the initiative is being co-financed by the African Development Bank, British International Investment, and Deutsche Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft, as well as the OPEC Fund for International Development and the Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation.

The wind farm in the Gulf of Suez will have an installed capacity of 1.1 gigawatts, delivering clean, renewable energy at a lower cost than conventional power generation. It is expected to produce over 4,300 GWh of electricity annually and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 2.2 million tons per year, supporting Egypt’s energy sector alignment with its commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt’s minister of planning, economic development, and international cooperation, said that her country is committed to advancing its renewable energy ambitions, aiming to derive 42 percent of its energy mix from renewable sources by 2030, in line with their nationally determined contributions.

“Through our partnership with the EBRD, a key development partner within the energy sector of Egypt’s country platform for the NWFE program, we are mobilizing blended finance to attract private-sector investments in renewable energy,” said Al-Mashat, who also serves as governor of the north African country to the EBRD

The minister added: “So far, funding has been secured for projects with a capacity of 4.7 gigawatts, and we are working collaboratively to meet the program’s targets to reduce Egypt’s fuel consumption and expand clean energy projects.”

Managing Director of the EBRD’s Sustainable Infrastructure Group, Nandita Parshad, expressed pride in the bank’s role as the largest financier of the landmark 1,100-megawatt wind farm in the Gulf of Suez, which is also the largest onshore wind farm in EBRD’s operational countries to date.

“Egypt continues to be a trailblazer for large-scale renewables in Africa: first with the largest solar farm and now the largest windfarm on the continent. Great to partner on both with ACWA power and to bring new partners in this project, Hassan Allam Utilities and Meridiam,” she said.

Suez Wind is a special project company jointly owned by Saudi energy giant ACWA Power and HAU Energy, a recently established renewable energy equity platform that the EBRD is investing in alongside Hassan Allam Utilities and Meridiam Africa Investments.

The EBRD, of which Egypt is a founding member, is the principal development partner in the republic’s energy sector under the Nexus of Water, Food, and Energy program, launched at COP27. This wind farm is one of the first projects within NWFE’s energy pillar, advancing progress toward the country’s 10-gigawatt renewable energy goal.

It plays a vital role in supporting Egypt’s efforts to decarbonize its fossil fuel-dependent power sector and achieve its ambitious renewable energy targets.

Since the EBRD began operations in Egypt in 2012, the bank has invested nearly €13.3 billion in 194 projects across the country. These investments span various sectors, including finance, transport, and agribusiness, as well as manufacturing, services, and infrastructure, with a particular emphasis on power, municipal water, and wastewater projects, according to the same source.

Last month, EBRD announced it was supporting the development and sustainability of Egypt’s renewable-energy sector by extending a $21.3 million loan to Red Sea Wind Energy.

The loan was established to fund the development and construction of a 150-megawatt expansion to the 500-megawatt wind farm currently being constructed in the same region.


UAE non-oil sectors push GDP growth to 4% in 2024: CBUAE

Updated 24 December 2024
Follow

UAE non-oil sectors push GDP growth to 4% in 2024: CBUAE

  • Growth is projected to accelerate to 4.5% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026
  • Non-oil GDP growth is forecast to remain robust, expanding by 4.9% in 2024 and 5% in 2025

RIYADH: The UAE economy is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2024, driven by robust performance across key non-oil sectors, according to official projections. 

The Central Bank of the UAE’s Quarterly Economic Review for December indicates that growth will be supported by sectors including tourism, transportation and financial services, as well as insurance, construction, real estate, and communications. 

Looking ahead, growth is projected to accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026, as the country continues to benefit from economic diversification policies aimed at reducing its dependence on oil revenues. 

Non-oil GDP growth is forecast to remain robust, expanding by 4.9 percent in 2024 and 5 percent in 2025. 

The report attributed this growth to strategic government policies aimed at attracting foreign investment and promoting economic diversification. 

In the second quarter, non-oil GDP grew by 4.8 percent year on year, compared to 4.0 percent in the first quarter, supported by manufacturing, trade, transportation and storage, and real estate activities. 

In September, the CBUAE revised its GDP growth forecast for the year upward by 0.1 percentage points, citing expected improvements in the oil sector. 

Initially projecting a 3.9 percent growth for 2024, the central bank adjusted the figure to 4 percent. In its second-quarter economic report, the CBUAE forecasted a growth rate of 6 percent for 2025. 

The UAE’s 16 non-oil sectors continued their steady growth in the third quarter of the year, with wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and construction being key contributors. 

The manufacturing sector has benefited from increased foreign direct investment, aligning with both federal and emirate-level strategies. 

The first nine months of the year also saw strong performance in the construction sector, reflecting significant investment in infrastructure and development projects. 

Non-oil trade exceeded 1.3 trillion dirhams ($353.9 billion) in the first half of the year, representing 134 percent of the country’s GDP, a 10.6 percent year-on-year increase. 

This growth underscores the success of the UAE’s economic diversification agenda and its comprehensive economic partnership agreements with various countries, which have strengthened trade relationships and driven exports.

The UAE has set ambitious economic targets to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.  

Under the We the UAE 2031 vision, the country aims to double its GDP from 1.49 trillion dirhams to 3 trillion dirhams, generate 800 billion dirhams in non-oil exports, and raise the value of foreign trade to 4 trillion dirhams.  

Additionally, the UAE plans to increase the tourism sector’s contribution to GDP to 450 billion dirhams. 

Oil production averaged 2.9 million barrels per day in the first 10 months of the year and is forecasted to grow by 1.3 percent for the year, with further acceleration to 2.9 percent in 2025.  

The fiscal sector also performed strongly in the first half of the year, with government revenue rising 6.9 percent on a yearly basis to 263.9 billion dirhams, equivalent to 26.9 percent of GDP.  

This increase was fueled by a significant 22.4 percent rise in tax revenues. Meanwhile, the fiscal surplus reached 65.7 billion dirhams, or 6.7 percent of GDP, marking a 38.8 percent increase from the 47.4 billion dirhams surplus, or 5.1 percent of GDP, recorded in the first half of 2023.  

Government capital expenditure surged by 51.7 percent year on year to 11 billion dirhams, reflecting the UAE’s commitment to advancing large-scale infrastructure projects and enhancing the country’s economic and investment landscape.

In the private sector, economic activity remained robust, with the UAE’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 54.1 in October this year, signaling continued optimism among businesses driven by sustained demand and sales growth.

Dubai’s PMI stood at 53.2 in October, closely aligning with the national average, indicating consistent growth in the emirate’s non-oil private sector.

Employment and wages also showed strong performance, with the number of employees covered by the CBUAE’s Wages Protection System rising by 4 percent year-on-year in September. 

Average salaries increased by 7.2 percent yearly during the same period, reflecting strong domestic consumption and sustainable GDP growth.