Turkey’s Syria strategy in doubt after US policy shift

US soldiers guard an oil field in Deir Ezzor Governorate, Syria, March, 2019. (Reuters)
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Updated 10 February 2021
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Turkey’s Syria strategy in doubt after US policy shift

  • Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Tuesday said that about 900 US military personnel and contractors had been “disengaged” from Syrian oil fields since last August
  • With Washington’s focus now on defeating Daesh, the main question is whether this policy shift under the Biden administration will push Turkey to redesign its Syria policy

ANKARA: The US announcement that it will focus on fighting Daesh remnants in Syria rather than guarding oil fields in the region could force Turkey to rethink its strategy in the war-wracked country, analysts believe.

In a break from the Trump-era policy, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Tuesday said that about 900 US military personnel and contractors had been “disengaged” from Syrian oil fields since last August.

The move follows a deal between a US firm, Delta Crescent Energy, and the US-allied Syrian Kurds to develop and export the vast crude oil reserves in northeast Syria. 

US forces in the region “are not authorized to provide assistance to any other private company seeking to develop oil resources in Syria,” said Kirby, adding that the responsibility for the protection of civilians justifies the presence of US forces around the oil fields. 

With Washington’s focus now on defeating Daesh, the main question is whether this policy shift under the Biden administration will push Turkey to redesign its Syria policy. 

Navvar Saban, a military analyst from the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, believes the US move will have wide-ranging implications. 

“The US is now there to secure the area against Daesh by supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). US support is limited to military backup for the SDF,” he told Arab News. 

In its latest quarterly report, released on Wednesday, the Pentagon said that clashes between Turkey and the SDF near Ayn Issa have undermined the force’s fight against Daesh. 

“Coalition forces continued to advise the SDF on its independent operations against Daesh. However, the SDF, which has no air assets, relied on coalition air support, including for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and partnered with coalition forces during most of its operations,” it said.

However, Ankara is critical of Washington’s cooperation with the SDF, which it considers a terror organization. Turkey also fears that further support may encourage the Syrian Kurds to seek greater autonomy and also inspire their supporters in Turkey.

According to Saban, strengthening the SDF will lead to Turkey’s line of control being redrawn, and will eliminate joint patrols between the Russians and Turks in the east.

“There have been a lot of statements from Turkey about their advance into the area because of the terror threat. Now, after the Pentagon statement, it is crystal clear that such an advance will no longer happen,” he said. 

According to Caroline Rose, senior analyst at the Center for Global Policy in Washington, the switch in US policy away from guarding Syrian oil fields is a sign that the Pentagon is adopting “a new phase of force projection,” narrowing its focus on combating Daesh enclaves in the northeast and cooperating with local forces such as the SDF. 

“This development is taking place parallel to the US draw-down in Iraq, where the Pentagon has withdrawn from eight bases and reduced its force to 2,500 personnel,” she told Arab News. 

While increased cooperation between the US and SDF will be viewed unfavorably in Ankara, Rose believes it is unlikely Turkey will be compelled to launch a military campaign against SDF elements similar to Operation Peace Spring in 2019 or Operation Olive Branch in 2018. 

Turkey will likely seek to strengthen its control of the strip of territory it controls in the region — the so-called “peace corridor” — as a counterweight to its rivals in Syria and as a launch point for future influence, Rose added. 

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, doubts the latest Pentagon announcement will force a change in Turkish policy. 

Ankara will be reluctant to make any bold moves against the US in northeastern Syria that could antagonize the new administration until it gets a better feel for Biden’s policy in the region and toward Turkey, he said.

The US goal in northeastern Syria may have shifted away from “protecting Syria’s oil,” but the underlying strategy remains the same, Landis said.

“The US is not about to allow Damascus or Ankara to exploit Syria’s oil reserves in that area.”

He added: “This is an optics operation for the White House, which does not want to be associated with Trump’s crass economic imperialism.”

Landis said that for several years the US presence in the region has been explained as an attempt to gain leverage against and to weaken Assad, Russia and Iran. That effort has not changed. 

“The US continues to support Kurdish quasi-independence and supremacy in northeast Syria, which includes the exploitation of the region’s oil riches in cooperation with the US-based company,” he added. 


Weakened Iran could pursue nuclear weapon, White House’s Sullivan says

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Weakened Iran could pursue nuclear weapon, White House’s Sullivan says

WASHINGTON: The Biden administration is concerned that a weakened Iran could build a nuclear weapon, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, adding that he was briefing President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the risk.
Iran has suffered setbacks to its regional influence after Israel’s assaults on its allies, Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, followed by the fall of Iran-aligned Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, including missile factories and air defenses, have reduced Tehran’s conventional military capabilities, Sullivan told CNN.
“It’s no wonder there are voices (in Iran) saying, ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now ... Maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine’,” Sullivan said.
Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has expanded uranium enrichment since Trump, in his 2017-2021 presidential term, pulled out of a deal between Tehran and world powers that put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.
Sullivan said that there was a risk that Iran might abandon its promise not to build nuclear weapons.
“It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on,” Sullivan said, adding that he had also consulted with US ally Israel.
Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, could return to his hard-line Iran policy by stepping up sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. Sullivan said Trump would have an opportunity to pursue diplomacy with Tehran, given Iran’s “weakened state.”
“Maybe he can come around this time, with the situation Iran finds itself in, and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear ambitions for the long term,” he said.

Netanyahu says Israel will continue to act against the Houthis

Updated 22 December 2024
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Netanyahu says Israel will continue to act against the Houthis

  • On Thursday, Israeli jets launched a series of strikes against energy and port infrastructure in Yemen
  • Response to hundreds of missile and drone attacks launched by Houthis since start of Gaza war

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday Israel would continue acting against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, whom he accused of threatening world shipping and the international order, and called on Israelis to be steadfast.
“Just as we acted forcefully against the terrorist arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so we will act against the Houthis,” he said in a video statement a day after a missile fired from Yemen fell in the Tel Aviv area, causing a number of mild injuries.
On Thursday, Israeli jets launched a series of strikes against energy and port infrastructure in Yemen in a move officials said was a response to hundreds of missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthis since the start of the Gaza war 14 months ago.
On Saturday, the US military said it conducted precision airstrikes against a missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility operated by Houthis in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa.
Netanyahu, strengthened at home by the Israeli military’s campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and by its destruction of most of the Syrian army’s strategic weapons, said Israel would act with the United States.
“Therefore, we will act with strength, determination and sophistication. I tell you that even if it takes time, the result will be the same,” he said.
The Houthis have launched repeated attacks on international shipping in waters near Yemen since November 2023, in support of the Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.


Iraq PM says Mosul airport to open in June, 11 years after Daesh capture

Updated 22 December 2024
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Iraq PM says Mosul airport to open in June, 11 years after Daesh capture

  • On June 10, 2014, the Daesh group seized Mosul

BAGHDAD: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on Sunday ordered for the inauguration of the airport in second city Mosul to be held in June, marking 11 years since Islamists took over the city.
On June 10, 2014, the Daesh group seized Mosul, declaring its “caliphate” from there 19 days later after capturing large swathes of Iraq and neighboring Syria.
After years of fierce battles, Iraqi forces backed by a US-led international coalition dislodged the group from Mosul in July 2017, before declaring its defeat across the country at the end of that year.
In a Sunday statement, Sudani’s office said the premier directed during a visit there “for the airport’s opening to be on June 10, coinciding with the anniversary of Mosul’s occupation, as a message of defiance in the face of terrorism.”
Over 80 percent of the airport’s runway and terminals have been completed, according to the statement.
Mosul’s airport had been completely destroyed in the fighting.
In August 2022, then-prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi laid the foundation stone for the airport’s reconstruction.
Sudani’s office also announced on Sunday the launch of a project to rehabilitate the western bank of the Tigris in Mosul, affirming that “Iraq is secure and stable and on the right path.”


Turkiye’s top diplomat meets Syria’s new leader in Damascus

Updated 26 min 17 sec ago
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Turkiye’s top diplomat meets Syria’s new leader in Damascus

  • Hakan Fidan had announced on Friday that he planned to travel to Damascus to meet Syria’s new leaders
  • Turkiye’s spy chief Ibrahim Kalin had earlier visited the city on December 12, just a few days after Bashar Assad’s fall

ANKARA: Turkiye’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan met with Syria’s new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Damascus on Sunday, Ankara’s foreign ministry said.

A video released by the Anadolu state news agency showed the two men greeting each other.

No details of where the meeting took place in the Syrian capital were released by the ministry.

Fidan had announced on Friday that he planned to travel to Damascus to meet Syria’s new leaders, who ousted Syria’s strongman Bashar Assad after a lightning offensive.

Turkiye’s spy chief Ibrahim Kalin had earlier visited the city on December 12, just a few days after Assad’s fall.

Kalin was filmed leaving the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, surrounded by bodyguards, as broadcast by the private Turkish channel NTV.

Turkiye has been a key backer of the opposition to Assad since the uprising against his rule began in 2011.

Besides supporting various militant groups, it has welcomed Syrian dissenters and millions of refugees.

However, Fidan has rejected claims by US president-elect Donald Trump that the militants’ victory in Syria constituted an “unfriendly takeover” of the country by Turkiye.

International sanctions on Damascus must be lifted “as soon as possible” to allow Syria to get back on its feet and refugees to return home, Fidan said.

“The sanctions imposed on the previous regime need to be lifted as soon as possible,” he said, adding: “The international community needs to mobilize to help Syria get back on its feet and for the displaced people to return.”

During a joint press conference, Al-Sharaa said that all weapons in the country would come under state control including those held by Kurdish-led forces.

 

Armed “factions will begin to announce their dissolution and enter” the army, Sharaa said during a press conference with Fidan, adding “we will absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control, whether from the revolutionary factions or the factions present in the SDF area,” referring to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

Syria alone was responsible for overthrowing Bashar Assad, Fidan also said.

“This victory belongs to you and no one else. Thanks to your sacrifices, Syria has seized a historic opportunity,” he said. Turkiye has repeatedly dismissed claims it had any hand in the lightning 12-day rebel offensive that ended with Assad’s overthrow on December 8.


Druze leader Jumblatt paves way for Lebanese-Syrian relationship without Assad

Updated 46 min 56 sec ago
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Druze leader Jumblatt paves way for Lebanese-Syrian relationship without Assad

  • Ahmed Al-Sharaa: ‘Syria’s interference in Lebanese affairs was negative’ in the past
  • Walid Jumblatt said Assad’s ouster should usher in new constructive relations between Lebanon and Syria

BEIRUT: Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, vowed in a meeting in Damascus on Sunday not to negatively interfere in neighboring Lebanon.

A major political and religious delegation headed by prominent Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt met with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham leader Al-Sharaa at the People’s Palace.

This marks the first visit of a Lebanese political figure to Syria following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime.

Al-Sharaa made a series of unprecedented statements about Lebanese-Syrian ties following decades of strained and sometimes bloody relations with the former Syrian regime.

Al-Sharaa said, “Syria was a source of concern and disturbance for Lebanon, and its interference in Lebanese affairs was negative,” adding that “the former Syrian regime killed Kamal Jumblatt, Bashir Gemayel, and Rafik Hariri.”

He emphasized that Syria, in its new era, would “stay at equal distance from everyone in Lebanon” and no longer engage in “negative interference in Lebanon.”

Al-Sharaa said that “Lebanon needs a strong economy and political stability that Syria will support” and called on the Lebanese to "erase from their memory the legacy of the old Syria in Lebanon.”

The international community was unable to solve the Syrian problem over 14 years, Al-Sharaa said.

“We took a different path because we believe that people can claim their rights by taking matters into their own hands only,” he added.

Commenting on Hezbollah’s years-long involvement in Syrian affairs in support of Assad’s regime, he said: “This is a new chapter with all components of the Lebanese people, regardless of previous stances.”

Jumblatt saluted the Syrian people for their “great victories and for getting rid of oppression and tyranny.”

He said: “We have a long way to go, and we are suffering from Israeli expansion, so I will present a memorandum on Lebanese-Syrian relations on behalf of the Democratic Gathering.”

Jumblatt believes that “the crimes committed against the Syrian people are similar to those committed in Gaza and Bosnia-Herzegovina and constitute crimes against humanity,” adding that “it is worth referring the matter” to international inquiries.

The delegation headed by Jumblatt included Sheikh Akl of the Unitarian Druze Community, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Dr. Sami Abi Al-Muna, Taymour Jumblatt, Druze MPs and religious figures.

Jumblatt said: “We hope that Lebanese-Syrian relations will return through the embassies and that all of those who committed crimes against the Lebanese will be held accountable.

“We also hope that fair trials will be held for all those who committed crimes against the Syrian people.”

Also on Sunday, the Lebanese Public Prosecution said that it received a telegram from the American judiciary regarding the arrest of Maj. Gen. Jamil Al-Hassan, director of administration for the Air Force Intelligence under the collapsed Assad regime.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that several officers from the Assad regime fled to Lebanon in the early hours following the collapse of the regime, utilizing illegal crossings managed by Hezbollah.

Those who entered Lebanese territory illegally included members of the Fourth Division, previously led by Maher Al-Assad, including officers of various ranks.

Security reports indicated that “several of them were apprehended while in possession of hundreds of thousands of dollars and quantities of gold, and the detainees were subsequently handed over to the Lebanese General Security.”

Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi confirmed last week that “some Syrian figures crossed overland into Lebanon, and some of them traveled via Beirut airport.”

He also said that photos of wanted Syrian officers had been disseminated to Lebanese air, sea, and land ports for their capture.

In a telegram circulated through Interpol, the US judiciary accuses Gen. Hassan of “war crimes, including genocide committed against the Syrian people by dropping explosive barrels.”

The international warrant has been disseminated to security services, which, as stated by a security source, are currently engaged in efforts to “ascertain whether Hassan is present in Beirut, in anticipation of his arrest and subsequent transfer to the judiciary.”

In a related incident on Sunday, unknown gunmen kidnapped Col. Ahmed Khair Beyk of the Syrian army on the Beirut Airport Road.

A security source linked the kidnapping to “drug and Captagon trafficking,” stating that “the perpetrators are a gang involved in the drug trade.”

Beyk had previously served as an aide to Brig. Gen. Ghassan Bilal in the Syrian army’s Fourth Division.

In other developments, the issue of detainees and opponents of the Syrian regime, held in Lebanese prisons for years, has resurfaced following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Their families held a sit-in in downtown Beirut on Sunday to demand general amnesty.

The protesters called for “speeding up trials and releasing their sons, notably the religious leaders among them.”

The number of detainees stands at 350, including 180 Lebanese and 170 Syrians, many of whom were arrested for supporting the Syrian opposition and labeled as terrorists.

On the other side of the border, the Lebanese Red Cross received seven Lebanese citizens at the Naqoura crossing.

They had been kidnapped by Israeli forces that infiltrated Lebanese territory and subjected them to interrogation.

The Israeli army claimed through its spokesperson Avichay Adraee that the forces of the 188th Brigade uncovered a large Hezbollah combat complex that contained eight weapons depots above and below ground, connected through a network of underground tunnels.

Communication and electrical devices, anti-tank missiles aimed at northern Israeli towns, explosives, computers, and other items were found, said the spokesperson.

The complex was destroyed, and the weapons were seized.