Quick action by OPEC+ stabilized oil markets during the coronavirus crisis, says IEF chief Joseph McMonigle

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In this episode of Frankly Speaking, Joseph McMonigle, secretary-general of the International Energy Forum (IEF), spoke to Arab News’ Frank Kane about the looming investment crunch in the oil industry. (AN Photo)
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International Energy Forum secretary-general Joseph McMonigle. (AN Photo)
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Updated 02 March 2021
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Quick action by OPEC+ stabilized oil markets during the coronavirus crisis, says IEF chief Joseph McMonigle

  • Secretary general of the International Energy Forum was interviewed on the Arab News video show Frankly Speaking
  • McMonigle discussed rising oil prices, looming investment crunch and the fight against climate change among other big issues

DUBAI: Saudi Arabia and Russia have been commended by one of the thought leaders of the global energy industry for playing a “responsible, leadership role” via the OPEC+ alliance in stabilizing oil markets during the coronavirus pandemic.

Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the International Energy Forum (IEF), the world’s biggest forum for energy policymakers, also spoke of the looming investment crunch in the oil industry and the crucial role that technology will play in the global battle against climate change.

He was interviewed on Frankly Speaking, the Arab News video show in which leading policymakers and business executives give their candid opinion on some of the big issues of the day.

McMonigle took over at the IEF last year after two decades’ experience in the global energy business, including a stint as adviser to the White House administration of George W. Bush.

“OPEC+ has been quite responsible in stabilizing oil markets during the pandemic, and of course like every other producer it had to adjust its demand lower, but really they took a leadership role right out of the box,” he said.

 

The Kingdom, alongside Russia, played a crucial role in limiting excess supply of crude onto fragile markets at the height of the crisis last year, when oil demand fell by 30 per cent and global crude prices plunged into negative territory in some markets.

“Really only due to their quick action were prices able to stabilize during the summer,” McMonigle said. “I think if we just said ‘Let’s wait and just see how market forces affect everything,’ I think it would have been a much more painful transition period.”

Nevertheless, he believes Saudi Arabia and OPEC do not want to see oil prices soaring too fast as the world recovers from the pandemic.

According to him, producers in the region and worldwide are conscious of the risks to economic growth from a “supercycle” in energy prices that some analysts have predicted.

“I don’t think that OPEC and the producers here in the region are necessarily so thrilled with supercycle type prices,” McMonigle said.

“I think they recognize, from the last time this happened, that it wasn’t good for the global economy, and I think they’ve realized now that healthy customers and a healthy global economy is the best for their industry and the best for the energy market.”

His comments came as crude oil prices hit new post-pandemic highs, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, up 20 per cent over the past month to stand at around $66 per barrel.

Some analysts have forecast the Brent will reach $75 in the summer, and could even spike to $100 as demand soars on economic recovery prospects and vaccines are rolled out across the world.

But with OPEC+ just days away from a crucial meeting to decide oil supply levels, McMonigle warned that lack of investment last year as prices plummeted could come back to bite the global industry.

“There’s not much we’re going to be able to do about demand returning faster and stronger than estimated but we can do something on the supply side, and that’s really going to take this investment that we talked about,” he said.

 

“If we’re in a full recovery at the end of the year from the pandemic I think you’re going to see demand be stronger and faster than forecasted, and so if you combine that with the investment crisis, I think the outlook for higher oil prices is quite good.”

The role of the IEF is to encourage dialogue and consultation between energy producers and consumers, and its work has been thrown into sharp relief by the pandemic energy crisis, as well as its effect on accelerating energy transition away from hydrocarbons.

“We have a much more diverse membership and so our agenda is expanded outside of just fossil fuels and we’re very involved in the energy transition and the role of natural gas and obviously paying very close attention to renewables,” McMonigle said.

The new emphasis on renewables — like solar, wind and nuclear energy sources — has struck a chord in Saudi Arabia, which has put in place some $10 billion worth of investment in the sector and announced plans to produce half its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

But McMonigle also emphasized the role hydrocarbons still have to play in the global energy mix and the importance of innovative technology to mitigate the effect of harmful emissions.

“I think it’s important to recognize that wind and solar energy alone can’t really help us meet our climate goals,” he said. “We really need a shift now by governments and industry to invest more in clean energy R&D, technology and innovation, with a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

At a recent meeting of the IEF with European Union energy policymakers, Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia, underlined the Kingdom’s commitment to renewable sources, and to the use of hydrogen as a fuel of the future.

 

“Hydrogen is a very hot and trending topic now and I think that’s because the EU has recognized intellectually that wind and solar just can’t do it alone, and we’re not going to just go off of fossil fuels. We need a replacement and so that’s why I think they’re investing so much in hydrogen, and Saudi Arabia is getting very involved in it,” McMonigle said.

Saudi Arabia has backed the framework of the Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) as a strategy to mitigate and remove the harmful emissions that cause global warming, and that framework was endorsed by G20 leaders at last year’s summit under the Saudi presidency.

McMonigle said that the key to CCE was investment in new technology. “Up until now really it’s just been the US, maybe also the UK, Norway and Australia that have invested in it, but if Saudi Arabia is going to get behind it in a big way that’s really going to advance the technology - not just on this but on the other technologies that will help us solve our climate crisis,” he said.

One crucial technology aspect is the direct capture of carbon from the air, which is a focus of significant Saudi energy research.

The effects of climate change and extreme weather conditions were recently demonstrated in the US, where the Texas electricity network was overwhelmed by severe low temperatures that also seriously affected the state’s oil industry.

Some experts have blamed the Texas policy of renewable investment for the crisis, but McMonigle disagreed.

“Certainly, renewable energy was affected, but natural gas generation was also affected as well. I think it’s a lot more complicated than just pointing out one or two fuel sources,” he said, highlighting the once-in-a-century nature of the Texas storm and the state’s unique regulatory structure as contributory factors.

Some critics of the hydrocarbon industry predict that the rise of electric vehicles (EV) will, in the long term, contribute to the decline of petrol cars and “peak” oil demand, encouraged by environmental legislation in some countries.

“There’s tremendous momentum behind EVs. Last year there were 2.3 million EVs sold globally — that's about one in every 40 cars sold was an electric vehicle or hybrid. These numbers are only going to grow and some forecasts suggest that global EV sales will make up more than 50 per cent in most vehicles segments by the year 2035,” McMonigle said.

But that does not necessarily mean the imminent end of oil as the main global energy source, he insisted.

“Fossil fuel and hydrocarbon demand is going to continue out to 2040 and maybe some of it gets affected by EVs. But you still have jet fuel, you still have diesel, you have petrochemicals that are driving a lot of the growth,” he said.

“The point here is that you know oil is going to be a dominant energy source for the foreseeable future.”

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Twitter: @frankkanedubai

Desert Storm: 30 years on
The end of the Gulf War on Feb. 28, 1991 saw the eviction of Iraq from Kuwait but paved the way for decades of conflict

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COP29 unveils Baku Call initiative to bridge climate finance and peace for vulnerable communities

Updated 34 sec ago
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COP29 unveils Baku Call initiative to bridge climate finance and peace for vulnerable communities

BAKU: The world’s most vulnerable communities stand at the heart of the newly launched “Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace, Relief, and Recovery,” unveiled on Friday at COP29. 

The initiative addresses the urgent need to tackle the interconnected challenges of climate change, conflict and humanitarian crises. 

Backed by key nations from both the Global North and South — including Egypt, Italy, Germany, Uganda, the UAE and the UK — it introduces the Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub as a platform for driving peace-sensitive climate actions and unlocking vital financial support for affected regions.

Speaking to Arab News, Ambassador Elshad Iskandarov of the COP29 Presidency articulated the stakes clearly, pointing to the 450 million people who live in regions simultaneously impacted by conflict and climate vulnerability. 

“These compounded crises not only strain existing resources but also hinder the effective delivery of climate finance,” he said. 

The Baku Call seeks to address this by providing a centralized mechanism to coordinate efforts across stakeholders — governments, UN agencies, think tanks and peace-building organizations. “The hub will serve as a unified entry point for vulnerable nations, ensuring streamlined access to climate finance and technical support,” he said.

The initiative builds on established frameworks such as COP27’s Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace and COP28’s Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace, while adding practical innovations. 

Iskandarov highlighted a digital portal in development that will provide a clear overview of existing climate finance mechanisms, application requirements and best practices. 

“Imagine a country facing daily challenges of conflict, development and climate impact. Without proper guidance, navigating six to nine funding channels becomes nearly impossible,” he said. The portal aims to close this gap by strengthening national capacities and offering tools to access and manage climate funding effectively.

A central focus of the initiative lies in developing pilot projects tailored to conflict-affected areas, where conventional funding approaches often fall short. “In regions with strong non-state violent actors, we must ensure that funds reach the communities in need without falling into the wrong hands,” Iskandarov said. 

To achieve this, the hub will facilitate close collaboration with UN agencies and local communities, designing projects that integrate peacebuilding goals and adhere to stringent oversight standards.

Partnerships have been instrumental in shaping the initiative. The ambassador commended the co-lead nations for their shared commitment to inclusivity and cooperation, noting how countries such as the UAE, Egypt and the UK brought their experiences as prior COP hosts to strengthen the effort.

“This is not about initiative nationalism,” he said. “We’ve drawn lessons from the pandemic, where global unity was key, and applied them to forge a collaborative approach to the climate and peace nexus.”

The Baku Call also seeks to shift the broader narrative around climate and peace. Iskandarov expressed a long-term vision where this intersection is no longer synonymous with crisis and destruction but instead embodies hope and development. “Our ultimate goal is to create a future where the nexus of climate and peace signifies resilience and harmony, not despair,” he said.


Gulf’s record FDI inflows growing the pie for all, says Bahrain’s economic strategy chief

Updated 15 November 2024
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Gulf’s record FDI inflows growing the pie for all, says Bahrain’s economic strategy chief

MANAMA: Gulf countries’ success in attracting foreign investments is a win-win for the region, a senior business strategy expert has told Arab News.

In an interview on the second day of the Bahrain International Airshow, Nada Al-Saeed, chief of strategy at the Bahrain Economic Development Board, described the Middle East’s growing ability to attract funding as “fantastic,” noting that it brings greater attention to the region.

In 2023, Saudi Arabia secured foreign direct investment inflows of SR96 billion ($25.6 billion), 16 percent higher than its target amount, while Bahrain received a record $1.7 billion over the same period, marking an 55 percent annual increase.

“When Saudi Arabia or the UAE does very well, it means that we could also benefit from that. I think that we often see the region as very competitive. I like to see it as a very collaborative and I think that everybody could benefit. If the pie gets larger, each individual’s share will also get larger.” she said. 

Reflecting on Bahrain’s FDI increase, Al-Saeed said that figure relates to the Economic Development Board’s achievements.

“If we are looking at the foreign direct investments’ statistics and results, we will see Bahrain actually attracted a much larger number than that, but this represents a record number for the EDB,” she said.

Nada Al-Saeed, chief of strategy at the Bahrain Economic Development Board. Supplied

Al-Saeed noted that funding secured in 2023 went to investment projects across all of Bahrain’s priority sectors, which include financial services, communication and technology, and manufacturing, as well as logistics and tourism,

“These are the key priority non-oil sectors identified by the government, and they are the focus of the EDB. The board has dedicated teams for each sector to promote and attract investments in these areas,” she said.

She also said that these projects have contributed to job creation in the country, and she expected this investment trend to continue.

Explaining how her organization’s strategy aligns with the country’s economic vision for 2030, Al-Saeed said that the EDB, as the nation’s investment promotion agency, works very closely with a wider ecosystem of stakeholders known as “Team Bahrain.” 

This group has tailored its investment promotion strategies to mirror the government’s national economic plans.

“Back in October 2021, the government launched the economic recovery plan where it identified key priority sectors, and the EDB aligned to that in order to ensure that we operate as a cohesive unit, and we are able to attract the right investments that will further stimulate the development and growth of our country,” the chief officer said.

Discussing the unique advantages Bahrain offers, Al-Saeed highlighted the country’s success over the past decades in attracting regional investors that now play a vital role in the nation’s economy.

“If we look at our foreign direct investment statistics, we will see the majority of our foreign investments come from the GCC region, and that is predominantly in the financial services sector, and this is a trend that we have seen since the 70s, where Bahrain managed to attract a lot of regional capital in the financial services sector from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and others, of course.” she said.

“There are many advantages because we treat GCC investors like Bahrainis when it comes to the processes of establishing business activities,” Al-Saeed added.

In addition, Bahrain has a wide range of incentives that are offered to investors.

One of these is the work of the country's labor fund, Tamkeen, which offers businesses the opportunity to support hiring local talent, as well as training and upskilling them to meet the needs of those companies.

Al-Saeed highlighted recent regulatory changes aimed at making Bahrain more attractive to global businesses and startups, and emphasized that significant efforts have been made to ensure the state remains both competitive and conducive to investments and business growth.

“Maybe one of the key, or most recent initiatives that is worth highlighting, is the Golden License program that was launched back in April 2023, which aims to provide streamlined services to strategic investment projects that are valued at $50 million or that creates 500 jobs here in Bahrain,” she said.

The chief officer added that through this initiative, projects and companies can benefit from expedited services when it comes to getting approvals, licenses or even access to decision makers. 

“This has been very instrumental in terms of ensuring that we provide high-class services to investors,” said Al-Saeed, noting that nine projects have been granted Golden License status since the initiative was launched.

She further said that the total of those projects is valued at $2.4 billion, with investors coming from various sectors and different regional and global countries, including Bahrain.

In response to a question about the role of the aviation sector in the EDB’s investment strategy,  Al-Saeed stated that it helps create a conducive investment environment, as it is what connects Bahrain with the rest of the world.

“This is not just in terms of the movement of people but also in transporting goods and service through air cargo. So, it is very important; as we do not target just the market that is within our geographic boundaries, but we aim to serve a much wider area and catchment area,” she said.


Saudi Arabia’s demand for apartments pushes new mortgages over $16bn

Updated 15 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s demand for apartments pushes new mortgages over $16bn

RIYADH: Banks in Saudi Arabia granted SR60.92 billion ($16.24 billion) in residential mortgages in the first nine months of 2024, an annual rise of 4.88 percent.

The data was released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, and it showed the bulk of the loans — constituting 64 percent or SR38.85 billion — was allocated for house purchases.

This segment did witness a 3.38 percent dip year on year, with its proportion of total loans shrinking from the 69 percent seen during the same period of 2023.

Demand for apartments surged, capturing 31 percent of total mortgages, up from 25 percent a year ago, as this category of lending reached SR18.6 billion.

This shift represents a 26.8 percent growth, underscoring the increasing preference for apartment ownership amid urbanization and demographic changes.

Additionally, loans for land purchases showed a promising trajectory, achieving an annual growth rate of 8.26 percent and amounting to SR3.5 billion, which signals a sustained interest in land investment across the Kingdom.

The rise in new residential bank loans across Saudi Arabia is being driven by a blend of population growth, evolving mortgage policies, and increasing interest in apartment living.

According to a recent report from online real estate platform Sakan, the Kingdom’s population surged by four million over the past five years, with demand for housing climbing in response.

While this trend fuels the broader housing market, apartments have become a prominent focus, reflecting changing demographics and affordability needs.

The growth of the expatriate population, which expanded from 9.9 million in 2010 to 13.4 million in 2022 and now makes up over 40 percent of the population, also adds pressure on the rental market, particularly in major cities.

The government’s push for greater home ownership through buyer-friendly mortgage policies is helping fuel this apartment demand. 

Favorable mortgage options and the recent introduction of the Premium Residency Visa, often dubbed the “Saudi Green Card,” allow foreign investors to enter the market with purchases over SR4 million, fostering interest in upscale residential investments.

Additionally, the value proposition of apartments is clear, as with SR1 million, buyers can access apartment sizes that vary by city — for instance, around 131 sq. meters in North Riyadh to a more spacious 333 sq. meters in Dammam, according to the report.

Saudi Arabia’s liberalized foreign ownership policies and affordable mortgage terms further boost demand, particularly for apartments in desirable areas.

The high rental yields offered by apartments in Saudi Arabia also attract investors, with two- and three-bedroom apartments in Riyadh delivering yields of 9 to 10 percent, and even higher returns in Jeddah, where a two-bedroom unit yields 11.7 percent.

These returns are notably higher than apartment yields in neighboring Gulf cities, where they average between 5 to 6 percent in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.

High rental yields not only make apartments attractive as long-term investments but also help offset rising property costs, driving both end-users and investors to favor this category in a market characterized by shifting residential preferences.

According to the report, the surge is also driven by the rapid evolution of real estate technology.

Platforms like Sakan are reshaping the real estate landscape by enhancing transparency, streamlining property transactions, and providing data-driven insights for buyers and investors alike.

Leveraging local knowledge and international expertise, these platforms are supporting the sector’s growth by simplifying access to property listings, improving market transparency, and facilitating faster transaction times.

As property technology continues to integrate into the Saudi market, it is poised to play a pivotal role in sustaining the momentum of residential lending and meeting the needs of a tech-savvy, expanding population.


Saudi Arabia’s official reserves reach $457bn, up 4%

Updated 15 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s official reserves reach $457bn, up 4%

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s official reserve assets reached SR1.71 trillion ($456.97 billion) in September, marking a 4 percent increase year-on-year, according to new data.

Figures released by the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, show these holdings include monetary gold, special drawing rights, the International Monetary Fund’s reserve position, and foreign reserves.

The latter, comprising currency and deposits abroad as well as investments in foreign securities, made up 94.5 percent of the total, amounting to SR1.62 trillion in September. This category grew 4.11 percent during this period.

September data indicated that special drawing rights rose to SR79.86 billion, marking a 4.18 percent increase and reaching the highest level in two and a half years. SDRs now account for 4.66 percent of Saudi Arabia’s total reserves.

Created by the IMF to supplement member countries’ official reserves, SDRs derive their value from a basket of major currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling. They can be exchanged among governments for freely usable currencies when needed.

SDRs provide additional liquidity, stabilize exchange rates, act as a unit of account, and facilitate international trade and financial stability.

The IMF reserve position totaled around SR12.64 billion, but decreased by 11.45 percent during this period. This category represents the amount a country can draw from the IMF without conditions.

Saudi Arabia’s official reserves have been a fundamental pillar of the nation’s economic stability and are closely tied to its strategic investments in foreign securities.

The Kingdom’s reserves include an extensive portfolio of foreign assets, diversified across currencies and geographies, ensuring the country has a robust financial buffer against global economic uncertainties.

This prudent reserve management has helped Saudi Arabia maintain a resilient fiscal position and a strong credit rating, affirmed at “A/A-1” by S&P Global, which recently upgraded the Kingdom’s outlook to positive due to its sustained reform momentum.

In alignment with Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has adopted an expansionary fiscal policy to support transformative projects aimed at reducing its economic dependence on oil.

This ambitious agenda has led to budget deficits and prompted the country to tap into debt markets to finance key infrastructure and social initiatives.

Despite the uptick in debt, the Kingdom remains fiscally well-positioned, with ample reserves and substantial net assets, projected to stay above 40 percent of GDP through 2027 according to S&P Global.

This buffer underscores Saudi Arabia’s capacity to absorb potential economic shocks while continuing to pursue its development goals.

The nation’s significant reserve base not only underpins its economic stability but also provides the flexibility to recalibrate spending on large infrastructure projects as needed, maintaining a balance between growth and fiscal discipline.

This strategy is essential as Saudi Arabia seeks to nurture its non-oil sectors, supported by the Public Investment Fund and other governmental entities.

The PIF’s role in fostering a diversified economy is central to Vision 2030’s objectives, from investment in renewable energy to technology and healthcare, creating a more resilient and diversified economic base.

With the positive outlook and strategic focus on sustainable growth, Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms are expected to drive strong non-oil growth over the medium term, further cementing the Kingdom’s fiscal stability and enhancing investor confidence in its long-term economic vision.


COP29: Clean energy a catalyst for stability, recovery in conflict zones

Updated 15 November 2024
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COP29: Clean energy a catalyst for stability, recovery in conflict zones

  • Environmental solutions reduce dependence on imports
  • Micro-grids support conflict-ridden communities

BAKU: As COP29 progresses in Baku, attention is turning to the ways in which clean energy can transform post-conflict recovery efforts, bringing both environmental resilience and social stability to regions affected by war.

This year’s discussions have highlighted how renewable energy offers more than environmental benefits, having the potential to catalyze economic recovery, improve living standards and build long-term resilience in areas most vulnerable to conflict.

Renewable energy in conflict recovery: A new dimension of aid

Experts have highlighted how sustainable infrastructure can reduce dependence on foreign energy imports and fuel local economies in war-torn areas.

Hafed Al-Ghwell, a North African geopolitics expert, said in an interview with Arab News that “clean energy isn’t just about generating power; it’s about autonomy and resilience.” For regions dependent on volatile foreign fuel supplies, renewables offer a more stable power source that strengthens local autonomy.

Gilles Carbonnier, vice president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, highlighted the critical role of renewable energy in supporting communities severely affected by both conflict and climate change.

“The people who are most affected by climate change risks are those who live in zones of armed conflict and have the least capability to adapt and face these risks,” Carbonnier said.

He described how the ICRC is using solar power to help protect communities from droughts, floods and extreme weather across the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.

“What we need is to scale these efforts, which means directing much more climate funding to conflict zones,” Carbonnier added.

This local approach provides immediate aid while laying the foundation for sustainable recovery in areas struggling with limited resources and infrastructure damage.

Gaza: The intersection of war and environmental crisis

The war and occupation in Gaza represents a severe environmental and humanitarian crisis.

Crown Prince Hussein of Jordan addressed COP29. In calling for global solidarity with Gaza, he said: “Saving our planet must start from the premise that all lives are worth saving.” He described how the war is “compounding environmental challenges for Gaza and beyond.”

A recent UN Environment Program report highlighted severe contamination of Gaza’s land, water and air due to the destruction of critical infrastructure, including sewage and waste systems, leaving communities surrounded by hazardous debris.

Carbonnier said that Gaza is emblematic of the dual crisis faced by many conflict zones, where war intensifies environmental damage and deepens humanitarian challenges.

“In Gaza, conflict has degraded critical infrastructure to the point where basic resources like clean water and electricity are scarce,” he said.

“Renewable energy solutions, such as solar micro-grids, could offer essential relief by providing stable power to hospitals, schools and homes,” he added.

In Gaza, solar micro-grids deployed by NGOs are already providing essential power for hospitals and emergency shelters, offering a sustainable alternative to fuel imports which have been blockaded by Israeli forces since the conflict began.

An image from the COP29 conference in Baku. AN

Resilience through clean energy infrastructure

Renewable energy infrastructure, particularly solar and wind power, is highly adaptable to conflict and post-conflict settings due to its low maintenance requirements and modular design.

Solar panels and wind turbines require minimal upkeep and their modular nature allows for incremental infrastructure development as security improves.

This approach has proved effective in Syria, where solar-powered micro-grids are supplying power to refugee camps, providing consistent electricity for vital services like sanitation and healthcare.

According to Carbonnier, these micro-grids “reduce dependence on often costly and dangerous fuel deliveries and stabilize power supplies for communities under stress.”

Renewable energy micro-grids are now recognized as a cornerstone of humanitarian aid, offering stability to populations affected by protracted crises.

Policy implications and international support

For renewable energy to become a reliable tool in post-conflict recovery, coordinated international support and robust policy frameworks are essential.

Azerbaijan’s lead COP29 negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, highlighted the need for financial support specifically directed at conflict zones. “Bridging the gaps between climate finance and peace-building efforts can unlock substantial benefits for communities emerging from conflict,” Rafiyev said.

Rumen Radev, president of Bulgaria, highlighted the link between climate resilience and global stability, telling Arab News: “Extreme meteorological events threaten not just people and economies, but also the security and stability of the world.”

His remarks highlight the importance of COP29’s goals in fostering peace through enhanced climate resilience.