DUBAI: Just when developing economies were ready to bask in the post-COVID rebound in global growth, in sweeps a bond market blaze to scorch them again.
Most major investment banks were predicting a stellar 2021 for emerging market assets as long as one crucial snag — global borrowing costs rising too fast — was avoided. Well guess what, they are on a tear.
February saw their steepest monthly gain since Donald Trump’s shock 2016 US presidential election win and, though the move comes from record low levels, for emerging markets now carrying nearly $80 trillion worth of debt it has been painful few weeks.
The widely-tracked JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) is having its worst start to a year for a quarter of a century, currencies have recoiled and MSCI’s EM stocks index has just suffered its biggest weekly drop since peak COVID panic last March.
The carnage has been described as a bond bonfire by ING analysts and prompted some of those bullish investment banks like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to curtail their bets.
Rising developed market bond yields sting emerging markets in two main ways.
Firstly they push up borrowing costs. BofA estimates emerging markets will sell over three quarters of a trillion dollars worth of debt this year — $210 billion by governments and over $550 billion by corporates. Higher rates mean adding to government debt ratios that soared 15.5 percentage points across the top 60 emerging markets last year and have left 13 such countries with debt-to-GDP in excess of 100 percent.
Secondly, it cuts the premium existing emerging debt offers investors compared to ultra safe and liquid US Treasuries.
If the risk-reward calculation no longer adds up, money managers can quickly sell as was seen during the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ when the Federal Reserve’s hints at ending its easy-money policies triggered an estimated $25 billion emerging asset selloff in just two months.
The effects of that episode were particularly severe in the “Fragile Five” of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey that had built-up large current account deficits that were funded by short-term capital inflows.
This time, investors are worried about at least some of those.
“Brazil and South Africa are countries whose combination of persistent weak growth, rising public debt, very steep yield curves with very high long-term real interest rates has become a big source of concern,” said David Lubin, Citi’s managing director and head of emerging markets economics. “Mexico might also be on that list.”
Still, the alarm bells aren’t ringing as loud now.
For one reason, US “real” yields, adjusted for inflation, remain low by historical standards, at about negative 80 basis points which keeps emerging market assets looking attractive.
By comparison, during the original taper tantrum, “real” US 10-year yields rose steeply from negative 75 basis points at the end of 2012 to positive 50 basis points by mid-2013.
And despite the huge rise in debts, last year’s recessions have helped to mostly eliminate current account deficits, limiting many emerging markets’ reliance on capital inflows and acting as a shock absorber against rising US yields.
A punchy recovery in global growth and fast-rising commodity prices should further help developing economies and even dig some out of a hole.
Moody’s last week cranked up its pan-EM growth forecast for the year to 7 percent from 6.1 percent, led by upward revisions to China, India and Mexico, and with $1.9 trillion of US stimulus now coming most institutions are doing the same.
“We could be at the door of a big, big economic boom,” said head of Barings’ sovereign debt and currencies group Ricardo Adrogué. “Some of these countries that seem hopeless today could actually be ok.”
Others will not be so lucky though.
Ethiopia is about to become a test case for the new G20 ‘Common Framework’ debt relief plan which stipulates private creditor debt must also be restructured, meaning the government has to default.
Others are expected to follow. S&P Global warned last week Belize was “virtually certain” to default in May. Laos and Sri Lanka have key payments in June and July, while JPMorgan lists 16 at-risk countries from Cameroon to Tajikistan sitting on a combined $61.4 billion of debt.
Tellimer’s senior economist Patrick Curran has dubbed the new group of vulnerable countries the ‘Fragile Frontiers’. It includes Jamaica, Tunisia, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Belarus, Ethiopia, Laos, Bahrain and Oman.
Adding to the risks, not all emerging markets have started rolling out COVID vaccines yet. In Africa, for example, only a minority of countries are currently vaccinating and more variants are still breaking out.
Countries like Mexico, Jamaica, Panama, Mauritius, Montenegro, Jordan and Fiji where tourism accounts for close to 10 percent of GDP will wonder whether vaccines will come quickly enough to save their busy seasons this year.
“Virus mutations are a real thing I worry about,” said Raza Agha, head of emerging markets credit strategy at Legal & General Investment Management. “There’s already been several and there’s no way of predicting how many more there will be.”
Turkey, Oman and Bahrain among ‘bondfire’ fragile five
https://arab.news/2gfwu
Turkey, Oman and Bahrain among ‘bondfire’ fragile five
- Emerging markets to ramp up debt sales this year
- But global borrowing costs are rising too fast
Saudi Arabia’s National Housing Co. launches 11 residential projects in Riyadh’s Khuzam area
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s National Housing Co. has launched 11 projects in Riyadh’s Khuzam area, offering over 10,000 units to meet growing demand for quality housing in the Kingdom.
These developments, including modern designs, are part of NHC’s strategic push to diversify housing supply and address the varied needs of Saudi families.
The projects range from luxurious villas to contemporary apartments, catering to different client needs, according to a press release.
These include Khuzam Park Residence, with units up to 379 sq. meters, and Tala Khuzam, offering units as large as 430 sq. meters. Additionally, the Tala Khuzam project features units as small as 219 sq. meters.
NHC, one of the leading developers of suburban and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, plays an important role in the real estate sector, focusing on improving quality of life and expanding housing supply across the Kingdom.
These efforts are aligned with Vision 2030, which aims to raise homeownership among Saudi families to 70 percent.
The company also announced the Eyal Khuzam project which offers luxury units up to 796 sq. meters, while Jawharat Khuzam 1 boasts units up to 929 sq. meters. The Nafah project offers units up to 600 sq. meters.
Within the Regan compound, which was unveiled at the Cityscape exhibition earlier this month, NHC introduced Rasin Rejan Hills and Ewan Rejan projects, with residential units up to 435 sq. meters. The company said both developments feature high privacy, 24/7 security, and are positioned as ideal living spaces in Khuzam.
Additionally, NHC launched the Azyan Khuzam project, offering units from 200 to 471 sq. meters, and the Jadaya project, with units up to 538 sq. meters. The Ewan Khuzam project includes villas of up to 594 sq. meters.
NHC emphasizes its commitment to maintaining quality standards with thoughtful designs and well-integrated infrastructure, including educational, health care, sports, cultural, and commercial amenities, as well as green spaces.
Over the course of the four-day Cityscape exhibition, NHC signed more than 38 agreements worth over SR5 billion ($1.33 billion) in the supply chain sector.
These agreements, which involve both local and international companies, cover various areas including logistics services, securing essential materials, and localizing industries within the sector.
COP29: Developing countries urge action on climate finance deal
RIYADH: Measures available to manage the rising global temperature are not sufficient, a leading Thai official has told the UN’s climate change conference in Baku.
Speaking at COP29 in Azerbaijan, the Asian country’s Minister of Natural Resources and the Environment, Chalermchai Sri-on, called for decisions to be made on climate financing to help those nations most affected by rising temperatures.
His comments were echoed by other ministers throughout the morning session, which came a day after the UN’s climate chief Simon Stiel told world leaders to “cut the theatrics and get down to business” with regards to agreeing a funding deal for developing countries.
Addressing delegates, Sri-on said: “The first global stocktake significantly showed that our current efforts are still insufficient to control global temperature increase.”
Malaysia’s Minister of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability, Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, urged developed nations to fulfill their financial responsibilities, ensuring funds are “accessible and impactful.”
Romania’s Minister of the Environment, Waters and Forests, Costel Alexe, called for prioritizing action over political differences, stating: “Failure is not an option for anyone.”
He also emphasized Romania’s focus on private-sector partnerships for decarbonization in energy, transport, and industry.
Diego Pacheco of Bolivia pointed to the responsibility of developed nations, stating: “Our countries are suffering the impacts of climate change, due largely to the historical emissions of developed countries.”
Sophalleth Eang, Cambodia’s minister of environment, reaffirmed Cambodia’s ambitious climate targets, including carbon neutrality by 2050, as outlined in its 2020 updated nationally determined contributions.
Franz Tattenbach, Costa Rica’s minister of environment and energy, expressed optimism in the ripple effects of decarbonization, saying: “We are an ambitious country, and we hope to scale up our ambition. We believe that decarbonization could lead to decarbonization in other countries.”
Austria’s Leonore Gewessler highlighted the need for urgent united action, saying: “It is our collective responsibility to make more progress without further delay.”
Additional leaders addressed the challenges of achieving meaningful climate goals amid global crises.
Burkina Faso’s Roger Baro urged for substantial commitments to protect the environment and develop resilient economies, while Celine Caron-Dagioni of Monaco called for updated contributions aligned with long-term climate goals.
Namibia’s Pohamba Penomwenyo Shifeta stressed the importance of balanced climate financing.
Speakers also showcased national achievements and initiatives. Uruguay’s Robert Bouvier Torterolo highlighted the country’s renewable energy success, with over 95 percent of its electricity derived from sustainable sources. Senegal’s Daouda Ngom emphasized the need for accessible financing to support adaptation plans.
Nigeria’s Balarabe Abbas Lawal detailed investments in renewable energy and afforestation, while Rwanda’s Valentine Uwamariya highlighted the significant economic cost of climate change to her nation and called for “ambitious, balanced, fair, and just outcomes” from the climate change forum.
Jordan wholesale trade price index increases 1.3% in first 9 months of 2024
RIYADH: Jordan’s wholesale trade price index increased by 1.31 percent year-on-year during the first nine months of 2024, driven primarily by higher prices for goods such as agricultural raw materials and tobacco, according to the country’s Department of Statistics.
The index reached 107.97 points, up from 106.40 points in the same period of 2023.
The largest contributor to the increase was the agricultural raw materials, grains, food, beverages, and tobacco category, which saw a rise of 3.35 percent. This was followed by a 1.47 percent increase in the fuel, metals, construction materials, and supplies group.
Other sectors showed more modest growth, including a 0.21 percent rise in machinery, equipment, and supplies, a 0.14 percent increase in textiles, clothing, personal, and household goods, and a slight 0.04 percent increase in motor vehicles, parts, and motorcycles.
In the third quarter of 2024, the wholesale trade price index rose by 1.41 percent year on year, reaching 107.97 points compared to 106.47 points during the same period in 2023.
The rise was driven mainly by a 3.16 percent increase in the agricultural raw materials, grains, food, beverages, and tobacco group, as well as a 2.48 percent rise in the fuel, metals, and construction materials group. Prices for textiles, clothing, personal, and household goods rose by 0.62 percent, while motor vehicles, parts, and motorcycles saw a 0.28 percent decline.
Machinery, equipment, and supplies prices decreased by 0.64 percent. On a quarterly basis, the index increased by 0.11 percent compared to the previous quarter, with the largest gains seen in agricultural raw materials (up 0.82 percent) and textiles, clothing, personal, and household goods (up 0.18 percent).
Jordan’s inflation this year has been shaped by both domestic and global factors. From January to October, the consumer price index rose by 1.56 percent, reaching 110.58 points compared to 108.88 points during the same period in 2023. Key contributors to inflation included an 11.6 percent surge in personal item prices, a 7.34 percent increase in water and sanitation services, as well as higher costs in union dues, rental prices, and tobacco products.
The industrial sector also played a role in driving inflation, with Jordan’s industrial production index rising by 0.48 percent through September. This increase was led by strong growth in the mining sector (up 8.34 percent) and electricity production (up 5.41 percent), while manufacturing output declined by 0.28 percent.
External factors, such as rising global food and energy prices, regional instability, and changes to subsidies and taxes, have contributed to price volatility, affecting wholesale trade and broader economic trends in Jordan.
Tourism, which accounts for about 12 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, has been particularly hard hit by regional conflicts. A report by Reuters noted that visitor numbers to popular sites like Petra have dropped dramatically, from around 4,000 per day to just 400.
Princess Haifa urges Saudi youth to embrace technology and innovation at Misk Forum
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has created an environment that empowers its young generation to realize their ambitions through the Vision 2030 program, according to the Kingdom’s vice minister of tourism.
Speaking at the Misk Global Forum in Riyadh, Princess Haifa bint Mohammed Al-Saud, urged the Saudi youth to master new technologies and rely on credible sources of information.
She emphasized the importance of staying well-informed and stressed that success requires patience and perseverance, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative is one of the most ambitious plans to transform the Kingdom and prepare it for the future. One of the key goals outlined in the program is empowering the youth by providing them with job opportunities and access to technology.
“Nothing is impossible in Saudi Arabia. We are fortunate that Saudi Arabia has proven that progress and development are achievable,” said Princess Haifa.
She added that the Kingdom’s transformative journey is unprecedented, both regionally and internationally.
Saudi Arabia’s job creation efforts are showing positive results, with the latest report from the General Authority for Statistics revealing that the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals has fallen to 7.1 percent.
This marks a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous quarter and a 1.4 percentage point drop compared to the same period last year.
The report also highlighted a significant improvement in the unemployment rate among Saudi women, which saw a sharp quarterly decline of 1.4 percentage points, reaching 12.8 percent by the end of the second quarter.
The eighth edition of the Misk Global Forum, held under the theme “By Youth for Youth,” began in Riyadh on Nov. 18. The two-day event brought together young leaders from the Kingdom and around the world, creating a platform for dialogue and collaboration.
The Misk Foundation, a nonprofit organization established in 2011 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, plays a key role in fostering the young generation in Saudi Arabia by developing an environment conducive to creativity and innovation through initiatives such as Misk City, Misk Art Institute, Manga Productions, the Science Center, and Misk Schools.
In September, Saudi Arabia’s Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb announced that the Kingdom is allocating substantial funds to boost the tourism industry and create jobs, especially for young people and women.
In August, a report by professional services firm PwC revealed that countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, are undergoing rapid transformation, driven by a growing youth population eager to embrace change and innovation.
The report also highlighted that the young generation in Saudi Arabia is increasingly aware of sustainable development goals and noted that organizations like the Misk Foundation are supporting the youth through a wide range of initiatives across sectors including education, innovation, arts, and culture.
Saudi Arabia’s endowment investment funds set record with over $267m in net assets
RIYADH: Net assets of licensed endowment investment funds in Saudi Arabia reached a record SR1 billion ($266.67 million) in 2024, marking a 29.3 percent increase from the previous year.
According to the General Authority for Endowments, this growth follows the 2023 record, which surpassed the half-billion riyal mark.
The increase in assets was attributed to the licensing of five new entities, bringing the total to 34 endowment investment funds, 27 of which are public and seven private.
Endowment funds in the Kingdom play a crucial role in driving sustainable development by providing the financial foundation for long-term projects that address critical societal needs.
These reserves are established through investments where the principal amount is preserved while the earnings are used to support various charitable and development initiatives.
This model ensures a continuous flow of resources for vital sectors such as education, health care, and infrastructure, as well as social welfare.
In Saudi Arabia, endowment funds are designed to align with the Kingdom’s economic development goals and are Shariah compliant.
They are used to finance projects that contribute to public welfare, including building educational institutions, supporting healthcare initiatives, and funding infrastructure projects that benefit communities across the Kingdom.
Strategic investment management ensures these funds’ sustainability, which allows the endowment to generate ongoing revenue for its initiatives while maintaining the original capital intact.
The Saudi government, through the General Authority for Endowments, has streamlined the process for licensing and managing these funds, enhancing transparency and enabling them to contribute more effectively to long-term development goals.
These reserves are also governed by regulations set by the Capital Market Authority, which oversees the creation of investment products that are aligned with the country’s broader objectives for economic and social progress.
By focusing on sectors such as education and health care, endowment funds in Saudi Arabia support the growth of human capital, improve the quality of life, and contribute to the achievement of Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce dependency on oil.
The funds also address the country’s growing demand for infrastructure and social services, particularly in urbanizing areas like Riyadh and Jeddah, where population growth is driving a need for sustainable development solutions.
