Senate election and the ides of March

The election for the Upper House of Parliament in Pakistan is always controversial due to allegations of vote-buying, but the poll this year had an added significance as the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was aiming to increase its strength in the opposition-dominated Senate, at a time when an 11-party opposition alliance is spearheading an agitation to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan from power.

The polling for the Senate election was held on March 3, barely three weeks before the so-called ‘long march’ to the federal capital, Islamabad, being organized by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), the opposition alliance of parties espousing different ideologies, to force the prime minister to resign. The PDM, led by the head of the religio-political party, JUI-F, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, has announced plans to bring thousands of its supporters to Islamabad and stage a protest sit-in as long as it takes to send the government packing.

Except on a few seats, the Senate election outcome was in accordance with expectations reflecting the respective strength of political parties in the national assembly and the four provincial assemblies that served as the electoral college for the poll. An upset was caused in the election for the seat from the federal capital for which the National Assembly members were eligible to vote as the PTI and its coalition partners lost to the PDM despite having a majority. PDM’s Yousaf Raza Gilani, a former prime minister during the rule of the Bhutto family-led Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), defeated the PTI candidate, Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, by five votes. The PTI managed to win the second seat from the federal capital reserved for women, proving that it still commanded a majority in the parliament. The prime minister alleged that money was used to buy the loyalties of 16 PTI lawmakers to ensure Gilani’s victory.

The opposition termed Shaikh’s defeat a vote of no-confidence in the prime minister and demanded his resignation. In an urgent session of the National Assembly boycotted by PDM component parties, Imran Khan won a fresh vote of confidence with the support of 178 members. However, questions were asked as the government had suffered defeat in the same National Assembly a few days ago when Gilani was elected Senator with 169 votes against 164 polled by Shaikh.

One reason for Gilani’s victory was the secret ballot in which dissident PTI lawmakers or those who allegedly sold their votes refused to support the party candidate. During the vote of trust sought by the prime minister, the show of hands settled the matter rather than a secret ballot and even those who voted for Gilani in the Senate election rallied to the government’s cause to avoid being identified and punished for indiscipline. The government had campaigned vigorously by issuing an ordinance and filing a petition in the Supreme Court to get the rules amended to hold the Senate election through open ballot, but in the end, the Election Commission of Pakistan ruled that the constitution allowed only secret ballot as has been happening in previous polls.

The prime minister and his ministers publicly accused the election commission of being partial and non-transparent, but the latter in a rare move reacted strongly by declaring it won’t succumb to pressure and asked the government to respect state institutions. 

Rahimullah Yusufzai

The election commission decision contributed to the rift between it and the government, which was unhappy when the former declared null and void a by-election for the National Assembly in Sialkot and ordered re-polling. The PTI had claimed victory in the by-poll while the opposition had alleged rigging. The prime minister and his ministers publicly accused the election commission of being partial and non-transparent, but the latter in a rare move reacted strongly by declaring it won’t succumb to pressure and asked the government to respect state institutions.

The government and Election Commission could confront each other again on March 12 when elections for the Senate chairman and deputy chairman will be held through secret ballot. Though PTI has managed to increase its strength to 47 in the 100-member Senate, the combined opposition still has an upper hand with 53 members. Senator Gilani is likely to be the opposition candidate against the incumbent Senate Chairman Mohammad Sadiq Sanjarani, who belongs to the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) allied to the PTI.

Sanjarani survived the opposition’s no-trust move against him by the majority 64 senators in August 2019 and his supporters believe he could cause another upset by defeating Gilani. No doubt he is at a disadvantage in the numbers game, but many factors including the use of money and role of the establishment can tilt the balance in the elections.

March 26 is the next date to watch in the country’s polarized political scene when the PDM will begin its final push to unseat the prime minister by staging its ‘long march’ to paralyze the government. There is no word on how long the protest sit-in will continue and whether the opposition supporters would enter the so-called ‘Red Zone’ in Islamabad where Pakistan’s top political, administrative and judicial institutions are located.

Violence could occur if the PDM refuses to end its protest. Whatever the outcome, the opposition is in no mood to let the premier rule in peace. It will continue to seek fresh elections owing to its belief that the July 2018 polls were rigged in Imran Khan’s favour.

- Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998. Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1