How will the Israel election outcome affect its Arab neighbors and Palestinians?

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Updated 23 March 2021
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How will the Israel election outcome affect its Arab neighbors and Palestinians?

  • Tuesday’s general election does not guarantee a more decisive result than the three before it
  • The intrinsic instability of Israel’s political system creates nervous anticipation across the Arab region

LONDON: It is not only Israelis who are becoming accustomed to their endless rounds of elections — this week’s being the fourth in two years. The whole region is being forced to consider the impact on Israel’s policies toward its neighbors, especially toward the Palestinians.

The intrinsic instability of the Israeli political system means that whenever an election takes place, it creates anxious anticipation across the Middle East and North Africa, a nervousness arising from the vacillations in Israel’s policies that in turn derive from both the need to lure voters and the constraints of the constant, excruciating and never-ending formations and dissolutions of coalitions.

Tuesday’s general election does not guarantee a more decisive result than the three before it.

In the meantime, the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is conducting both his domestic and international policies not necessarily to serve the interests of the country and its people, but first and foremost to prolong his time in office, and at this stage mainly to escape justice in his corruption trial on three cases of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

For both the Israeli electorate and for the international community, in the more than four years since the investigation into Netanyahu’s corrupt and hedonist behavior began, it has become almost impossible to discern which of the Israeli government’s policies stem from a genuine strategic outlook and which are merely to serve Netanyahu’s attempt to derail his trial and avert conviction.

Yet, scanning the various possible post-election scenarios, as far as Israel’s policies in the region are concerned, one cannot foresee dramatic changes, whether Netanyahu stays or quits.

KEY CONTENDERS IN ISRAELI ELECTION

* Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud 

* Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid 

* Naftali Bennett, Yamina 

* Gideon Saar, New Hope 

* Ayman Odeh, Joint List 

* Avigdor Lieberman, Yisrael Beytenu 

The great danger is that if Netanyahu remains in office, the trend of decisions taken to divert the course of justice will continue, and this might lead to adventurism and pandering to his right-wing base.

If his time in politics comes to an end after Tuesday’s election, Israel is likely to end up with some species of right-wing government, one which might include more centrist elements, but not necessarily.

Of the three other likely candidates for the prime ministerial role, Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid, Naftali Bennet of Yamina and Gideon Saar of New Hope, it is only Lapid who might offer a less hawkish foreign policy and one more accommodating towards the Palestinians.

However, considering the other members of what would inevitably be a coalition government, his room to maneuver would be very limited, and even more so if a post-Netanyahu Likud were to be part of that coalition.

Hence, any changes if they take place might be more nuanced in all regards.




Protesters gather during an anti-government demonstration near the Israeli prime minister's residence in Jerusalem on March 20, 2021, ahead of the election taking place on March 23. (AFP)

An external observer of Israeli politics might expect the Palestinian issue to be high on the public agenda, if not top of it at election time; however, this is not the case.

The issue has been marginalized in inverse correlation to its importance to Israeli society and is confined to small parties either on the left or those of the Joint Arab List. None of the major parties are prepared to offer an alternative discourse, or to call out the dire conditions under which the Palestinians are forced to live in the West Bank and Gaza.

No party is ready to confront the practical, let alone the moral, implications of the continuous occupation of the West Bank and the blockade on Gaza, which is also a form of occupation.

The conventional wisdom, or rather the collective denial, is that there is no partner for peace on the Palestinian side, and as things stand there is no sense of urgency to enter into genuine peace negotiations, based on a two-state solution and a fair and just resolution of all outstanding issues, including the status of Palestinian refugees and the future of Jerusalem.

Judging by the polls and consequently the different scenarios of a future coalition government, it is possible that those who call for the annexation of large swaths of land in the West Bank — a threat that was halted last summer by the Abraham Accords — might be extremely influential in the next government.

Such elements might push to expand the Jewish settlements, legalize dozens of outposts in the West Bank that even in the eyes of the Israeli government are illegal, confiscate more Palestinian land and generally make the lives of Palestinians as uncomfortable as possible.




An Israeli soldier casts his early vote for the country's upcoming legislative elections, at the Golani military base in Kafr Qara near Haifa, on March 17, 2021. (AFP/File Photo)

Depending on the composition of the Knesset, there could emerge a more pragmatic government, but one that still would be under pressure to at least maintain the sorry status quo.

A major issue that will be high on the next government’s agenda is Iran, and closely related to it, relations with Syria and Lebanon. For Israel, especially under Netanyahu, the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Tehran was from its outset like a red rag to a bull. It opposed it, never believed that Tehran would adhere to its terms, and saw it at best as delaying rather than preventing Iran’s development of nuclear military capability.

There is a wide consensus in Israel that Iran is posing, if not an existential threat to Israel, then at least a very severe one. The corollary of that is a proactive Israeli approach, whether diplomatically or through covert and overt operations in Iran, Syria and other parts of the world where Tehran operates against Israeli targets.

There might be a more nuanced approach in a government not led by Netanyahu, one that would avoid confrontation with the Biden administration if it is determined to re-join the JCPOA, as long as it offers a more stringent inspections regime and constraints on Iran’s development of long-range missiles.

In this context, any incoming Israeli government will be concerned with the consolidation of Iran’s military presence in Syria and air raids on Iranian targets there will continue, along with attacks on arms convoys bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon.




A picture taken on March 21, 2021, shows the installation "Speak Out!", consisting of 90 sculpted heads by artist Sophie Halbreich aimed to encourage people to vote, at Habima Square in the Israeli coastal city of Tel Aviv. (AFP)

The military build-up of the latter on Israel’s northern border, which includes an enormous arsenal of precision-guided missiles, is a threat that Israel’s strategists take very seriously.

As with Iran’s nuclear program, deterrence, quiet diplomacy and limited operations will remain Israel’s policy of choice. However, should Hezbollah cross a certain threshold, open hostilities remain a real possibility.

Lastly, one of Netanyahu’s rare achievements in recent years has been the normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, adding to the existing informal cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan.

Maintaining this state of affairs and building on it will be the task of the next government. However, as long as the Palestinian conflict lingers on with no sign of a satisfactory solution, it could always become a spoiler in these regional relations, as we have seen recently with the growing tension between Israel and Jordan.

It is safe to say that in the wake of this week’s Israeli election, we will see more continuity than change as far as the region is concerned, but the composition of the next coalition and the main forces in it may still usher in some changes — for better or worse.

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 * Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. Twitter: @YMekelberg


Lebanon’s Shiite Muslims pay high price in war between Israel and Hezbollah

Updated 47 min 41 sec ago
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Lebanon’s Shiite Muslims pay high price in war between Israel and Hezbollah

  • Many Shiite Muslims believe they are being unfairly punished because they share a religious identity with Hezbollah and often live in the same areas

BEIRUT: The Lebanese civilians most devastated by the Israel- Hezbollah war are Shiite Muslims, and many of them believe they are being unfairly punished because they share a religious identity with Hezbollah militants and often live in the same areas.
“This is clear,” said Wael Murtada, a young Shiite man who anxiously watched paramedics search rubble after a recent Israeli airstrike destroyed his uncle’s two-story home and killed 10 people. “Who else is being attacked?”
Israel has concentrated its attacks on villages in southern and northeastern Lebanon and neighborhoods south of Beirut. This is where many Hezbollah militants operate from, and their families live side by side with large numbers of Shiites who aren’t members of the group.
Israel insists its war is with Hezbollah and not the Lebanese people – or the Shiite faith. It says it only targets members of the Iran-backed militant group to try to end their yearlong campaign of firing rockets over the border. But Israel’s stated objectives mean little to people like Murtada as growing numbers of Shiite civilians also die in a war that escalated sharply in recent months.
Shiites don’t just measure the suffering of their community in deaths and injuries. Entire blocks of the coastal city of Tyre have been flattened. Large parts of the historic market in the city of Nabatiyeh, which dates to the Ottoman era, have been destroyed. And in Baalbek, an airstrike damaged the city’s famed Hotel Palmyra, which opened in the late 19th century, and a home that dates to the Ottoman era.
“Lebanese Shias are being collectively punished. Their urban areas are being destroyed, and their cultural monuments and building are being destroyed,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
As Shiites flee their war-torn villages and neighborhoods, the conflict is increasingly following them to other parts of Lebanon, and this is fueling tensions.
Scores of people have been killed by Israeli airstrikes on Christian, Sunni and Druze areas where displaced Shiites had taken refuge. Many residents in these areas now think twice before providing shelter to displaced people out of fear they may have links to Hezbollah.
“The Israelis are targeting all of Lebanon,” said Wassef Harakeh, a lawyer from Beirut’s southern suburbs who in 2022 ran against Hezbollah in the country’s parliamentary elections and whose office was recently demolished by an Israeli airstrike. He believes part of Israel’s goal is to exacerbate frictions within the small Mediterranean country, which has a long history of sectarian fighting even though diverse groups live together peacefully these days.
Some Shiites say statements from the Israeli military over the years have only reinforced suspicions that their wider community is being targeted as a means to put pressure on Hezbollah.
One commonly cited example is the so-called Dahiyeh doctrine, which was first espoused by Israeli generals during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. It is a reference to the southern suburbs of Beirut where Hezbollah is headquartered and where entire residential blocks, bridges and shopping compounds were destroyed in both wars. Israel says Hezbollah hides weapons and fighters in such areas, turning them into legitimate military targets.
A video released by the Israeli military last month has been interpreted by Shiites as further proof that little distinction is being made between Hezbollah fighters and Shiite civilians.
Speaking from a southern Lebanese village he did not name, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari called it “a terror base. This is a Lebanese village, a Shiite village built by Hezbollah.” As he toured a house and showed stocks of hand grenades, rifles, night-vision goggles and other military equipment, Hagari said: “Every house is a terror base.”
Another army spokesperson disputed the notion that Israel tries to blur the line between combatants and civilians. “Our war is with the terror group Hezbollah and not with the Lebanese population, whatever its origin,” said Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani. He denied that Israel was intentionally trying to disrupt the social fabric of Lebanon, and pointed to Israel’s evacuation warnings to civilians ahead of airstrikes as a step it takes to mitigate harm.
Many Lebanese, including some Shiites, blame Hezbollah for their suffering, while also decrying Israel’s bombardments. Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel last year the day after Hamas attacked Israel and started the war in Gaza; this went against the group’s promises to use its weapons only to defend Lebanon.
Since last October, more than 3,500 people have been killed in Lebanon, and women and children accounted for more than 900 of the dead, according to the Health Ministry. More than 1 million people have been displaced from their homes. Shiites, who make up a third of Lebanon’s 5 million people, have borne the brunt of this suffering. Israel says it has killed well over 2,000 Hezbollah members in the past year.
The death and destruction in Lebanon ramped up significantly in mid-September, when Israeli airstrikes began targeting Hezbollah’s leaders, and once again in early October, when Israeli ground troops invaded.
Early in the war, Israeli airstrikes killed about 500 Hezbollah members but caused very little collateral damage. But since late September, airstrikes have destroyed entire buildings and homes, and in some cases killed dozens of civilians when the intended target was one Hezbollah member or official.
On one particularly bloody day, Sept. 23, Israeli airstrikes killed almost 500 people and prompted hundreds of thousands of people – again, mostly Shiites — to flee their homes in panic.
Murtada’s relatives fled from Beirut’s southern suburbs in late September after entire blocks had been wiped out by airstrikes. They moved 22 kilometers (about 14 miles) east of the city, to the predominantly Druze mountain village of Baalchmay to stay in the home of Murtada’s uncle.
Then, on Nov. 12, the home where they sought refuge was destroyed without warning. The airstrike killed nine relatives — three men, three women and three children — and a domestic worker, Murtada said.
The Israeli army said the home was being used by Hezbollah. Murtada, who lost a grandmother and an aunt in the strike, said nobody in the home was connected to the militant group.
Hezbollah has long boasted about its ability to deter Israel, but the latest war has proven otherwise and taken a severe toll on its leadership.
Some Shiites fear the weakening of Hezbollah will lead to the entire community being sidelined politically once the war is over. But others believe it could offer a political opening for more diverse Shiite voices.
Ceasefire negotiations to end the Israel-Hezbollah appear to have gained momentum over the past week. Some critics of Hezbollah say the group could have accepted months ago the conditions currently under consideration.
This would have spared Lebanon “destruction, martyrs and losses worth billions (of dollars),” Lebanese legislator Waddah Sadek, who is Sunni Muslim, wrote on X.


Donkeys offer Gazans lifeline amid war shortages

Updated 25 November 2024
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Donkeys offer Gazans lifeline amid war shortages

  • Donkey-pulled carts were a fairly common sight in pre-war Gaza
  • Displaced Gazans fleeing fighting or air strikes pile aboard them to rush to safety with their belongings

Deir el-Balah: Amina Abu Maghasib’s livelihood rests on one animal: a donkey that pulls the cart she uses to transport people around Gaza, where more than a year of war has led to a widespread shortage of fuel for cars.
“Before the war, I used to sell milk and yoghurt, and the factory used to take the milk from me,” she said from the central Gaza city of Deir el-Balah, holding reins in one hand and a rubber stick in the other that she uses to maneuver her cart.
“Now, I have no income other than the donkey and the cart.”
Donkey-pulled carts were a fairly common sight in pre-war Gaza. But the lack of fuel and destruction in the territory since the conflict began between Israel and Hamas last year have made them one of the few remaining forms of transport.
Displaced Gazans fleeing fighting or air strikes pile aboard them to rush to safety with their belongings.
For others, a donkey cart is virtually the only form of transportation.
Marwa Yess uses a donkey cart to get around with her family.
“I pay 20 shekels ($5.40) for the cart to take me from Deir el-Balah to Nuseirat. The price is outrageous, but under these circumstances, everything seems reasonable,” she said. The distance is about five kilometers (three miles).
“I used to feel embarrassed to ride a donkey cart at the beginning of the war, but now there’s no other option,” the teacher and mother of three told AFP.
Soaring prices
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 43 percent of Gaza’s working animals — a category that includes donkeys, horses and mules — had been killed in the war by August 2024, leaving only 2,627 alive.
Abu Maghasib’s only running costs are fodder, she told AFP sitting on her cart, a few planks of wood held together by a metal frame and mounted on four wheels.
But the price of food for people and animals has soared.
After costs, Abu Maghasib has made a profit of 20 shekels at the end of the day from the clients who hop on and off from the roadside.
“I bought this donkey on credit, and the first donkey died in the war in Deir el-Balah after being hit by shrapnel,” she said.
The new one cost her 2,500 shekels.
Abdel Misbah, a 32-year-old man displaced with his family of 20 from Gaza City to the territory’s south, also made the livelihood switch to donkey transportation.
“I used to sell vegetables on a cart before the war. Now, I work in delivery,” he said, lamenting that “the donkey panics when the bombing gets too close.”
He too feels the pain of skyrocketing fodder prices.
“I make sure to feed it well, even though the price of barley (per sack) has gone up from three shekels to 50 shekels,” he said.
'More valuable than gold'
Israel imposed a near-total siege on Gaza in the early stages of the war last year, complicating aid and goods distribution.
The lack of fuel, war-damaged roads and looting, as well as fighting in densely populated areas and the repeated displacement of much of Gaza’s 2.4 million people, also contribute to the shortages.
A UN-backed assessment this month said famine looms in northern Gaza, and the United Nations agency supporting Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said aid entering the territory had reached its lowest level in months.
Yusef Muhammad, a 23-year-old displaced from Gaza’s north to Khan Yunis in the south, said his donkey has become a “lifeline” for his family.
“When the war started, car fares were too expensive. I had no choice but to rely on a donkey. Thank God I had it when we were forced to evacuate.”
Beyond the widespread destruction, Israel’s military campaign has killed at least 44,211 people in Gaza, most of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas government’s health ministry, which the UN considers reliable.
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the war resulted in 1,206 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
When Israeli military evacuation orders, which usually precede fighting and bombing, send thousands of people and their belongings onto the road in an instant, donkey carts can be one of the only ways out of danger.
Hosni Abu Warda, 62, said his home was destroyed in the northern area of Jabalia, the scene of an intense Israeli military operation since early October.
When he fled, Abu Warda said he had no choice but to turn to four-hoofed transportation. He waited 14 hours for a cart before escaping with his family “packed like sardines.”
In times like these, “the donkey is more valuable than gold and even more valuable than modern cars,” Abu Warda said.


Mikati warns Israeli military action in Lebanon a rejection of political solution

Updated 25 November 2024
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Mikati warns Israeli military action in Lebanon a rejection of political solution

  • Borrell in Beirut: Pressure must be exerted on Israel, Hezbollah to accept US proposal
  • Israel steps up bombardment of capital’s southern suburbs

BEIRUT: An Israeli strike on a Lebanese army center on Sunday killed a soldier and wounded 18 others, the Lebanese military said, with the caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, calling the attack “a direct bloody message rejecting all efforts to reach a ceasefire.”

The attack came as top EU diplomat Josep Borrell called for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war while on a visit to Lebanon.

According to the Lebanese Army Command, the first adjutant, Diab Mohammed Jaafar, was killed when Israel targeted Al-Amariyeh checkpoint on the road between Tyre and the town of Naqoura.

In a statement, Mikati said: “Israel’s messages rejecting a solution are ongoing, and just as it turned against the US-French call for a ceasefire in September, here it is once again responding with Lebanese blood, blatantly rejecting the solution that is being discussed.”

He called on “the countries of the world and the relevant international institutions to assume their responsibilities on the issue.”

Mikati’s condemnation came amid growing concerns that the Israeli military is trying to solidify its westward incursion in the coastal town of Al-Bayada, located between Tyre and Naqoura, while facing strong resistance from the eastern side of the border area in its positions in Khiyam.

Israeli forces are trying to encircle the South Litani area from both sides.

Hezbollah said it “targeted a gathering of the enemy army s forces east of the city of Khiyam with a salvo of rockets,” and “a gathering of Israeli forces at the Metula site (Israel’s outlet toward Khiyam) was targeted with a volley of rockets followed by an aerial attack with a squadron of assault drones … hitting its targets accurately.”

The Israeli military said Hezbollah launched 160 projectiles toward Israel on Sunday.

Sirens sounded across northern and central Israel, reaching Tel Aviv at successive intervals, forcing thousands of Israelis to head toward shelters.

Footage from central Israel showed extensive material damage and fires.

The Israeli military issued further warnings to residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs to evacuate, targeting Bourj Al-Barajneh and Hadath.

Former Israeli minister Benny Gantz claimed that the Lebanese government “is leaving Hezbollah unchecked,” adding: “It is time to act against its assets forcefully.”

These developments came during a round of discussions conducted by Borrell, high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy, in Beirut with Mikati and Speaker Nabih Berry.

In a statement, Borrell stressed the need for exerting pressure on Israel and Hezbollah to accept the US proposal for a ceasefire.

Borrell emphasized that “the situation in the Middle East, particularly here in Beirut, presents a significant challenge to the international community. The international community cannot remain inactive in the face of these events. The absence of peace in the Middle East has reached an intolerable level, and people are dying under bombardment.”

He added that two months on from his last visit to Beirut, he now views Lebanon as on the verge of collapse due to the conflict, which has led to the devastation of numerous villages, as well as airstrikes aimed at Beirut and Baalbek. He also reiterated that “the human cost is exceedingly high.”

Borrell said Israeli airstrikes had claimed the lives of over 3,500 people in Lebanon, a figure three times greater than the casualties recorded in 2006.

The only viable path forward, Borrell said, is an immediate ceasefire and the full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701.

Borrell praised the UNIFIL forces and confirmed the EU’s readiness to allocate €200 million ($208.3 million) to the Lebanese Armed Forces.

He emphasized the Lebanese need to “assume their political responsibilities by electing a president and putting an end to this prolonged power vacuum that has exceeded two years.”

Borrell said a ceasefire proposal for Gaza is pending Israeli government approval, and “we, as the international community, need to work to ensure the respect of international law, as we see famine being used as a weapon of war through international law violations, the complete siege imposed on Gaza and the number of people that are dying in Lebanon.”

He added that in his view the decisions of the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, for Israel’s activities in Gaza were not politically motivated and had been made under international law, which applied to everyone. “We strongly support the court,” he said.


15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces

Updated 25 November 2024
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15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces

  • SDF fighters “infiltrated positions of the Turkish-backed” troops in the Aleppo countryside, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said
  • The SDF is a US-backed force that spearheaded the fighting against the Daesh group in its last Syria strongholds before its territorial defeat in 2019

BEIRUT: At least 15 Ankara-backed Syrian fighters were killed Sunday after Kurdish-led forces infiltrated their territory in the country’s north, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said.
Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who controls swathes of the country’s northeast, “infiltrated positions of the Turkish-backed” fighters in the Aleppo countryside, said the Observatory, which has a network of sources inside Syria.
“The two sides engaged in violent clashes” that killed 15 of the Ankara-backed fighters, the monitor said.
An AFP correspondent in Syria’s north said the clashes had taken place near the city of Al-Bab, where authorities said schools would be suspended on Monday due to the violence.
The SDF is a US-backed force that spearheaded the fighting against the Daesh group in its last Syria strongholds before its territorial defeat in 2019.
It is dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), viewed by Ankara as an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which claimed the attack on Ankara.
Turkish troops and allied rebel factions control swathes of northern Syria following successive cross-border offensives since 2016, most of them targeting the SDF.


Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports

Updated 25 November 2024
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Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports

BEIRUT: Israel is moving towards a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with the Hezbollah militant group, Axios reporter Barak Ravid posted on X on Sunday, citing a senior Israeli official.
A separate report from Israel's public broadcaster Kan, citing an Israeli official, said there was no green light given on an agreement in Lebanon, with issues still yet to be resolved.