How will the Israel election outcome affect its Arab neighbors and Palestinians?

Short Url
Updated 23 March 2021
Follow

How will the Israel election outcome affect its Arab neighbors and Palestinians?

  • Tuesday’s general election does not guarantee a more decisive result than the three before it
  • The intrinsic instability of Israel’s political system creates nervous anticipation across the Arab region

LONDON: It is not only Israelis who are becoming accustomed to their endless rounds of elections — this week’s being the fourth in two years. The whole region is being forced to consider the impact on Israel’s policies toward its neighbors, especially toward the Palestinians.

The intrinsic instability of the Israeli political system means that whenever an election takes place, it creates anxious anticipation across the Middle East and North Africa, a nervousness arising from the vacillations in Israel’s policies that in turn derive from both the need to lure voters and the constraints of the constant, excruciating and never-ending formations and dissolutions of coalitions.

Tuesday’s general election does not guarantee a more decisive result than the three before it.

In the meantime, the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is conducting both his domestic and international policies not necessarily to serve the interests of the country and its people, but first and foremost to prolong his time in office, and at this stage mainly to escape justice in his corruption trial on three cases of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

For both the Israeli electorate and for the international community, in the more than four years since the investigation into Netanyahu’s corrupt and hedonist behavior began, it has become almost impossible to discern which of the Israeli government’s policies stem from a genuine strategic outlook and which are merely to serve Netanyahu’s attempt to derail his trial and avert conviction.

Yet, scanning the various possible post-election scenarios, as far as Israel’s policies in the region are concerned, one cannot foresee dramatic changes, whether Netanyahu stays or quits.

KEY CONTENDERS IN ISRAELI ELECTION

* Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud 

* Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid 

* Naftali Bennett, Yamina 

* Gideon Saar, New Hope 

* Ayman Odeh, Joint List 

* Avigdor Lieberman, Yisrael Beytenu 

The great danger is that if Netanyahu remains in office, the trend of decisions taken to divert the course of justice will continue, and this might lead to adventurism and pandering to his right-wing base.

If his time in politics comes to an end after Tuesday’s election, Israel is likely to end up with some species of right-wing government, one which might include more centrist elements, but not necessarily.

Of the three other likely candidates for the prime ministerial role, Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid, Naftali Bennet of Yamina and Gideon Saar of New Hope, it is only Lapid who might offer a less hawkish foreign policy and one more accommodating towards the Palestinians.

However, considering the other members of what would inevitably be a coalition government, his room to maneuver would be very limited, and even more so if a post-Netanyahu Likud were to be part of that coalition.

Hence, any changes if they take place might be more nuanced in all regards.




Protesters gather during an anti-government demonstration near the Israeli prime minister's residence in Jerusalem on March 20, 2021, ahead of the election taking place on March 23. (AFP)

An external observer of Israeli politics might expect the Palestinian issue to be high on the public agenda, if not top of it at election time; however, this is not the case.

The issue has been marginalized in inverse correlation to its importance to Israeli society and is confined to small parties either on the left or those of the Joint Arab List. None of the major parties are prepared to offer an alternative discourse, or to call out the dire conditions under which the Palestinians are forced to live in the West Bank and Gaza.

No party is ready to confront the practical, let alone the moral, implications of the continuous occupation of the West Bank and the blockade on Gaza, which is also a form of occupation.

The conventional wisdom, or rather the collective denial, is that there is no partner for peace on the Palestinian side, and as things stand there is no sense of urgency to enter into genuine peace negotiations, based on a two-state solution and a fair and just resolution of all outstanding issues, including the status of Palestinian refugees and the future of Jerusalem.

Judging by the polls and consequently the different scenarios of a future coalition government, it is possible that those who call for the annexation of large swaths of land in the West Bank — a threat that was halted last summer by the Abraham Accords — might be extremely influential in the next government.

Such elements might push to expand the Jewish settlements, legalize dozens of outposts in the West Bank that even in the eyes of the Israeli government are illegal, confiscate more Palestinian land and generally make the lives of Palestinians as uncomfortable as possible.




An Israeli soldier casts his early vote for the country's upcoming legislative elections, at the Golani military base in Kafr Qara near Haifa, on March 17, 2021. (AFP/File Photo)

Depending on the composition of the Knesset, there could emerge a more pragmatic government, but one that still would be under pressure to at least maintain the sorry status quo.

A major issue that will be high on the next government’s agenda is Iran, and closely related to it, relations with Syria and Lebanon. For Israel, especially under Netanyahu, the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Tehran was from its outset like a red rag to a bull. It opposed it, never believed that Tehran would adhere to its terms, and saw it at best as delaying rather than preventing Iran’s development of nuclear military capability.

There is a wide consensus in Israel that Iran is posing, if not an existential threat to Israel, then at least a very severe one. The corollary of that is a proactive Israeli approach, whether diplomatically or through covert and overt operations in Iran, Syria and other parts of the world where Tehran operates against Israeli targets.

There might be a more nuanced approach in a government not led by Netanyahu, one that would avoid confrontation with the Biden administration if it is determined to re-join the JCPOA, as long as it offers a more stringent inspections regime and constraints on Iran’s development of long-range missiles.

In this context, any incoming Israeli government will be concerned with the consolidation of Iran’s military presence in Syria and air raids on Iranian targets there will continue, along with attacks on arms convoys bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon.




A picture taken on March 21, 2021, shows the installation "Speak Out!", consisting of 90 sculpted heads by artist Sophie Halbreich aimed to encourage people to vote, at Habima Square in the Israeli coastal city of Tel Aviv. (AFP)

The military build-up of the latter on Israel’s northern border, which includes an enormous arsenal of precision-guided missiles, is a threat that Israel’s strategists take very seriously.

As with Iran’s nuclear program, deterrence, quiet diplomacy and limited operations will remain Israel’s policy of choice. However, should Hezbollah cross a certain threshold, open hostilities remain a real possibility.

Lastly, one of Netanyahu’s rare achievements in recent years has been the normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, adding to the existing informal cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan.

Maintaining this state of affairs and building on it will be the task of the next government. However, as long as the Palestinian conflict lingers on with no sign of a satisfactory solution, it could always become a spoiler in these regional relations, as we have seen recently with the growing tension between Israel and Jordan.

It is safe to say that in the wake of this week’s Israeli election, we will see more continuity than change as far as the region is concerned, but the composition of the next coalition and the main forces in it may still usher in some changes — for better or worse.

----------------

 * Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. Twitter: @YMekelberg


Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’

Updated 6 sec ago
Follow

Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’

ISTANBUL: Turkiye on Monday sacked three mayors in the Kurdish-majority southeast on alleged “terrorism” charges, despite Ankara’s apparent desire to seek a rapprochement with the Kurdish community.

In a sweep, the mayors of the cities of Mardin and Batman as well as the Halfeti district in Sanliurfa province were all removed and replaced with government-appointed trustees, the Interior Ministry said.

All three belong to DEM, the main pro-Kurdish party, and were elected in March’s local elections, when opposition candidates won in numerous towns and cities, including Istanbul.

Among those removed were Ahmet Turk, Mardin’s 82-year- old mayor, along with Batman mayor Gulistan Sonuk and Mehmet Karayilan in Halfeti.

The ministry outlined a string of allegations against them, frommembershipinanarmed group to disseminating propaganda for the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party, also known as PKK.

Since 1984, the PKK has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state in which more than 40,000 people have died. It is blacklisted as a “terror” group by Turkiye and its Western allies.

Kurds make up around 20 percent of Turkiye’s overall population.

DEM swiftly denounced the moveas“amajorattackonthe Kurdish people’s right to vote and be elected.”


Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon

Updated 1 min 20 sec ago
Follow

Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon

BEIRUT: The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies on Tuesday launched an international emergency appeal asking donors to provide resources for Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah war.
IFRC also called on all parties to protect paramedics in the conflict that has left thousands of people dead and wounded, many of them over the past six weeks.
Jagan Chapagain, the secretary-general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told The Associated Press in Beirut that “needs are just growing so fast.” He met with officials and toured shelters housing people displaced by the conflict.
The IFRC said its emergency appeal for 100 million Swiss Francs ($115.8 million) is aimed at helping Lebanon and the Lebanese Red Cross through the ongoing conflict.

Jagan Chapagain, Secretary-General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP)

The 13-month war between Israel and Hezbollah has killed more than 3,000 people, wounded over 13,000 in Lebanon. Hundreds of thousands of the displaced are staying in shelters around the small nation that is passing through a historic economic crisis.
In northern Israel, 68 soldiers and 41 civilians have been killed since October 2023, according to the prime minister’s office. More than 60,000 people have been displaced from their homes.
The conflict dramatically escalated on Sept. 23, with intense Israeli airstrikes on south and east Lebanon as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs, leaving hundreds dead and leading to the displacement of nearly 1.2 million people.
Chapagain said people staying in community centers around the country need hygiene kits, non-food items, blankets and heaters as winter approaches. He added that even if the hostilities stop, it will take time for things to go back to normal and that is one of the reasons why the IFRC’s emergency appeal goes for two years.
“The global community needs to come together to find a political solution to the challenges this region has been facing for decades,” Chapagain said.
He said that more than 30 staff and volunteers globally have already been killed this year and dozens injured adding that many other organizations have also lost members of their staff.
“This is something unheard of many years ago,” he said about the 30 deaths, adding that among the countries where paramedics suffered most are Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Sudan.
In Lebanon, 17 members of the Lebanese Red Cross have been wounded since the conflict began while carrying out their rescue duties in different parts of Lebanon. Three of the 17 paramedics were wounded twice, according to IFRC.
“The Red Cross and Red Crescent emblems are protected,” said Chapagain.


Israeli military says sirens sounded in Eilat

Updated 14 min 22 sec ago
Follow

Israeli military says sirens sounded in Eilat

  • The Islamic Resistance in Iraq said in a statement that it targeted a “vital target” in Eilat

BAGHDAD: Israeli military said on Tuesday that sirens were sounded in the Red Sea port city of Eilat.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq said in a statement that it targeted a “vital target” in Eilat by drones.
The Iraqi pro-Iran group has been launching attacks on Israel since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza.


UK humanitarian agency report exposes systematic life-threatening conditions for Palestinians in Gaza

Updated 05 November 2024
Follow

UK humanitarian agency report exposes systematic life-threatening conditions for Palestinians in Gaza

  • Findings underscore severe challenges facing Palestinian civilians during Israel’s war with Hamas

LONDON: A report released on Tuesday from Action for Humanity International, one of the UK’s leading humanitarian agencies operating in Gaza, reveals the conditions faced by internally displaced people after Israel’s displacement orders to Palestinian civilians.

The report claims that these orders, along with conditions in designated “humanitarian zones,” are creating life-threatening environments that amount to “systematic erasure.”

The findings underscore the severe challenges facing Palestinian civilians during Israel’s war with Hamas.

According to the survey, 15 percent of respondents were unable to evacuate due to disability or caregiving responsibilities, a reality compounded by the fact that 35 percent of people received less than an hour’s notice of evacuation orders.

The survey also found that 98 percent of respondents had been displaced several times, with nearly a quarter having been displaced 10 or more times in the past year.

In humanitarian zones conditions are reportedly dire.

According to the report, 73 percent of respondents described them as “poor” or “very poor,” with four out of five lacking sufficient access to food, and two-thirds unable to obtain clean drinking water. Additionally, 80 percent of respondents reported no access to adequate medical care.

Charles Lawley, director of communications and advocacy at AFH, criticized the treatment of Gaza’s civilians, saying that, in his view, the situation in Gaza amounted to “erasure in plain sight.”

“This report shows that Gaza is being erased in plain sight,” he said. “The so-called ‘evacuation orders’ — and I hesitate to call them that, as that is the language used by the Israeli military and implies it is doing the people of Gaza a favor by giving them a warning before bombing their homes — inflict terrors, are ambiguous and difficult to comply with, on the occasions they are given.”

Lawley further condemned the conditions in the so-called humanitarian zones.

“The conditions are not fit for humans ... with such damage to infrastructure, the bombing of Gaza, even with so-called evacuation orders, puts people who cannot afford the transport to escape and those with caregiving or physical barriers to escape — such as pregnant women, the elderly, and people with disabilities — at a heightened risk of being killed, as escaping is even more difficult for them.”

In a strong rebuke of the ongoing military action, Lawley argued that the pattern of bombardment, ground incursions, and deprivation of basic resources suggested a coordinated strategy that “aligns with acts of extermination and genocide.”

He further suggested that recent reports indicating Israeli government intentions to annex Gaza raised additional concerns, noting that “these plans ... appear designed to inflict conditions of life aimed at the physical destruction of the group, in whole or in part ... as a strategic tool in broader aims for territorial annexation.”

The full report is available to read here


Israel’s Netanyahu dismisses defense minister in surprise announcement

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference on October 28, 2023
Updated 05 November 2024
Follow

Israel’s Netanyahu dismisses defense minister in surprise announcement

  • Netanyahu and Gallant have repeatedly been at odds throughout the war in Gaza

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday dismissed his popular defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in a surprise announcement that came as the country is embroiled in wars on multiple fronts across the region.
Netanyahu and Gallant have repeatedly been at odds over the war in Gaza. But Netanyahu had avoided firing his rival. Netanyahu cited “significant gaps” and a “crisis of trust” between the men in his Tuesday evening announcement.
“In the midst of a war, more than ever, full trust is required between the prime minister and defense minister,” Netanyahu said. “Unfortunately, although in the first months of the campaign there was such trust and there was very fruitful work, during the last months this trust cracked between me and the defense minister.”
In the early days of the war, Israel’s leadership presented a unified front as it responded to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack. But as the war dragged on and spread to Lebanon, key policy differences have emerged. While Netanyahu has called for continued military pressure on Hamas, Gallant had taken a more pragmatic approach, saying that military force has created the necessary conditions for a diplomatic deal that could bring home hostages held by the militant group.
Gallant, a former general who has gained public respect with a gruff, no-nonsense personality, said in a statement: “The security of the state of Israel always was, and will always remain, my life’s mission.”
Gallant has worn a simple, black buttoned shirt throughout the war in a sign of sorrow over the Oct. 7 attack and developed a strong relationship with his US counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
A previous attempt by Netanyahu to fire Gallant in March 2023 sparked widespread street protests against Netanyahu. He also flirted with the idea of dismissing Gallant over the summer but held off until Tuesday’s announcement.
Gallant will be replaced by Foreign Minister Israel Katz, a Netanyahu loyalist and veteran Cabinet minister who was a junior officer in the military. Gideon Saar, a former Netanyahu rival who recently rejoined the government, will take the foreign affairs post.
Netanyahu has a long history of neutralizing his rivals. In his statement, he claimed he had made “many attempts” to bridge the gaps with Gallant.
“But they kept getting wider. They also came to the knowledge of the public in an unacceptable way, and worse than that, they came to the knowledge of the enemy — our enemies enjoyed it and derived a lot of benefit from it,” he said.