How will the Israel election outcome affect its Arab neighbors and Palestinians?

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Updated 23 March 2021
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How will the Israel election outcome affect its Arab neighbors and Palestinians?

  • Tuesday’s general election does not guarantee a more decisive result than the three before it
  • The intrinsic instability of Israel’s political system creates nervous anticipation across the Arab region

LONDON: It is not only Israelis who are becoming accustomed to their endless rounds of elections — this week’s being the fourth in two years. The whole region is being forced to consider the impact on Israel’s policies toward its neighbors, especially toward the Palestinians.

The intrinsic instability of the Israeli political system means that whenever an election takes place, it creates anxious anticipation across the Middle East and North Africa, a nervousness arising from the vacillations in Israel’s policies that in turn derive from both the need to lure voters and the constraints of the constant, excruciating and never-ending formations and dissolutions of coalitions.

Tuesday’s general election does not guarantee a more decisive result than the three before it.

In the meantime, the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is conducting both his domestic and international policies not necessarily to serve the interests of the country and its people, but first and foremost to prolong his time in office, and at this stage mainly to escape justice in his corruption trial on three cases of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

For both the Israeli electorate and for the international community, in the more than four years since the investigation into Netanyahu’s corrupt and hedonist behavior began, it has become almost impossible to discern which of the Israeli government’s policies stem from a genuine strategic outlook and which are merely to serve Netanyahu’s attempt to derail his trial and avert conviction.

Yet, scanning the various possible post-election scenarios, as far as Israel’s policies in the region are concerned, one cannot foresee dramatic changes, whether Netanyahu stays or quits.

KEY CONTENDERS IN ISRAELI ELECTION

* Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud 

* Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid 

* Naftali Bennett, Yamina 

* Gideon Saar, New Hope 

* Ayman Odeh, Joint List 

* Avigdor Lieberman, Yisrael Beytenu 

The great danger is that if Netanyahu remains in office, the trend of decisions taken to divert the course of justice will continue, and this might lead to adventurism and pandering to his right-wing base.

If his time in politics comes to an end after Tuesday’s election, Israel is likely to end up with some species of right-wing government, one which might include more centrist elements, but not necessarily.

Of the three other likely candidates for the prime ministerial role, Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid, Naftali Bennet of Yamina and Gideon Saar of New Hope, it is only Lapid who might offer a less hawkish foreign policy and one more accommodating towards the Palestinians.

However, considering the other members of what would inevitably be a coalition government, his room to maneuver would be very limited, and even more so if a post-Netanyahu Likud were to be part of that coalition.

Hence, any changes if they take place might be more nuanced in all regards.




Protesters gather during an anti-government demonstration near the Israeli prime minister's residence in Jerusalem on March 20, 2021, ahead of the election taking place on March 23. (AFP)

An external observer of Israeli politics might expect the Palestinian issue to be high on the public agenda, if not top of it at election time; however, this is not the case.

The issue has been marginalized in inverse correlation to its importance to Israeli society and is confined to small parties either on the left or those of the Joint Arab List. None of the major parties are prepared to offer an alternative discourse, or to call out the dire conditions under which the Palestinians are forced to live in the West Bank and Gaza.

No party is ready to confront the practical, let alone the moral, implications of the continuous occupation of the West Bank and the blockade on Gaza, which is also a form of occupation.

The conventional wisdom, or rather the collective denial, is that there is no partner for peace on the Palestinian side, and as things stand there is no sense of urgency to enter into genuine peace negotiations, based on a two-state solution and a fair and just resolution of all outstanding issues, including the status of Palestinian refugees and the future of Jerusalem.

Judging by the polls and consequently the different scenarios of a future coalition government, it is possible that those who call for the annexation of large swaths of land in the West Bank — a threat that was halted last summer by the Abraham Accords — might be extremely influential in the next government.

Such elements might push to expand the Jewish settlements, legalize dozens of outposts in the West Bank that even in the eyes of the Israeli government are illegal, confiscate more Palestinian land and generally make the lives of Palestinians as uncomfortable as possible.




An Israeli soldier casts his early vote for the country's upcoming legislative elections, at the Golani military base in Kafr Qara near Haifa, on March 17, 2021. (AFP/File Photo)

Depending on the composition of the Knesset, there could emerge a more pragmatic government, but one that still would be under pressure to at least maintain the sorry status quo.

A major issue that will be high on the next government’s agenda is Iran, and closely related to it, relations with Syria and Lebanon. For Israel, especially under Netanyahu, the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Tehran was from its outset like a red rag to a bull. It opposed it, never believed that Tehran would adhere to its terms, and saw it at best as delaying rather than preventing Iran’s development of nuclear military capability.

There is a wide consensus in Israel that Iran is posing, if not an existential threat to Israel, then at least a very severe one. The corollary of that is a proactive Israeli approach, whether diplomatically or through covert and overt operations in Iran, Syria and other parts of the world where Tehran operates against Israeli targets.

There might be a more nuanced approach in a government not led by Netanyahu, one that would avoid confrontation with the Biden administration if it is determined to re-join the JCPOA, as long as it offers a more stringent inspections regime and constraints on Iran’s development of long-range missiles.

In this context, any incoming Israeli government will be concerned with the consolidation of Iran’s military presence in Syria and air raids on Iranian targets there will continue, along with attacks on arms convoys bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon.




A picture taken on March 21, 2021, shows the installation "Speak Out!", consisting of 90 sculpted heads by artist Sophie Halbreich aimed to encourage people to vote, at Habima Square in the Israeli coastal city of Tel Aviv. (AFP)

The military build-up of the latter on Israel’s northern border, which includes an enormous arsenal of precision-guided missiles, is a threat that Israel’s strategists take very seriously.

As with Iran’s nuclear program, deterrence, quiet diplomacy and limited operations will remain Israel’s policy of choice. However, should Hezbollah cross a certain threshold, open hostilities remain a real possibility.

Lastly, one of Netanyahu’s rare achievements in recent years has been the normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, adding to the existing informal cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan.

Maintaining this state of affairs and building on it will be the task of the next government. However, as long as the Palestinian conflict lingers on with no sign of a satisfactory solution, it could always become a spoiler in these regional relations, as we have seen recently with the growing tension between Israel and Jordan.

It is safe to say that in the wake of this week’s Israeli election, we will see more continuity than change as far as the region is concerned, but the composition of the next coalition and the main forces in it may still usher in some changes — for better or worse.

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 * Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. Twitter: @YMekelberg


‘Bulldozer’ Katz, long-time ally of Israel’s Netanyahu

Updated 06 November 2024
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‘Bulldozer’ Katz, long-time ally of Israel’s Netanyahu

  • Katz, 69, labelled by Israeli media as a “bulldozer” for his direct and sometimes abrasive style, is considered both close and loyal to Netanyahu

JERUSALEM: Israel’s new Defense Minister Israel Katz, known for his abrasive style, is a long-time ally and loyalist of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In a dramatic announcement late on Tuesday, Netanyahu sacked defense minister Yoav Gallant over what he said was a breakdown in trust during the Gaza war against Hamas.
“Over the past few months that trust has eroded. In light of this, I decided today to end the term of the defense minister,” Netanyahu said in a statement issued by his office.
The statement added that he had appointed Foreign Minister Israel Katz to take Gallant’s place.
Katz, 69, labelled by Israeli media as a “bulldozer” for his direct and sometimes abrasive style, is considered both close and loyal to Netanyahu.
After his appointment, Katz vowed to defeat Israel’s enemies and achieve the country’s war goals.
“We will work together to lead the defense establishment to victory over our enemies and to achieve the goals of the war: the return of all hostages as the most important moral mission, the destruction of Hamas in Gaza, the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the containment of Iranian aggression, and the safe return of the residents of the north and south to their homes,” he said in a statement.
A member of Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party, in which he was previously president of the party’s convention, Katz has held multiple cabinet roles going back to 2003.
As foreign minister, Katz drew international attention for his pointed attacks on world leaders and international organizations that had expressed opposition to Israeli military actions, particularly in Gaza.
He spearheaded a diplomatic battle against the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, and last month Israel’s parliament banned the agency from working in Israel and occupied east Jerusalem.
On Monday, Katz instructed his ministry to formally notify the United Nations that Israel was canceling its agreements with UNRWA.
Last month Katz triggered outrage when he declared UN chief Antonio Guterres “persona non grata in Israel” and wrote in a post on X that he would ban him from entering the country.
Before serving as foreign minister, Katz’s most notable role was as minister of transport.
He spent a decade in the post from 2009-2019, but had also held the energy and finance portfolios in various Netanyahu cabinets.
Aviv Bushinsky, a political commentator and Netanyahu’s former chief of staff, told AFP that Katz was likely to be more in tune with the prime minister than his predecessor Gallant.
“I cannot recall an incident when Israel Katz was in opposition to Netanyahu with anything,” Bushinsky said.
“It is true he does not have any military experience, but he was a very good transport minister and has sat in the cabinet for many years,” he added.
“Besides, Netanyahu thinks he can run the show himself — and he has managed to run the show even though Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, two generals, quit the government.”
Born in the coastal city of Ashkelon, Katz has been a prominent player in Israeli politics since becoming a member of parliament, the Knesset, in 1998.
Today he is among the highest-ranking ministers in the Likud party.
Married with two children, Katz is a resident of Moshav Kfar Ahim in southern Israel.


Gideon Saar, Netanyahu rival turned Israel’s new wartime foreign minister

Updated 06 November 2024
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Gideon Saar, Netanyahu rival turned Israel’s new wartime foreign minister

  • Saar was appointed foreign minister to replace Israel Katz, who took over the defense portfolio on Tuesday after Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant over an erosion of trust during the Gaza war

JERUSALEM: A self-styled political rebel and once a rival of the prime minister, Gideon Saar was named Israel’s new foreign minister on Tuesday.
Just five years ago Saar openly challenged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the leadership of Israel’s right-wing Likud party.
The former journalist and lawyer then left Likud in 2020, saying it had been corrupted under Netanyahu’s leadership, to form the hawkish, right-wing New Hope party.
Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war last year, Saar joined the emergency war cabinet, before leaving the administration.
In September, he joined Netanyahu’s government as minister without a portfolio.
“As a long-time member of the government and cabinet, Gideon Saar brings substantial experience and sound judgment in security and policy matters, making him a valuable addition to our leadership team,” Netanyahu said Tuesday in a statement issued by his office.
“The addition of Saar and his party will strengthen the coalition and stabilize the government, which is crucial at all times, particularly in times of war.”
Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza since the militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 43,391 Palestinians, a majority of them civilians, according to the territory’s health ministry, figures considered reliable by the UN.
Saar was appointed foreign minister to replace Israel Katz, who took over the defense portfolio on Tuesday after Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant over an erosion of trust during the Gaza war.
Gallant had for months clashed with Netanyahu over his approach to talks on a possible hostage release deal and on the future of Gaza.
Israeli media earlier this year quoted Gallant as privately telling a parliamentary committee that a hostage release deal “is stalling... in part because of Israel.”
Netanyahu’s office accused Gallant of adopting an “anti-Israel narrative.”
Saar entered politics in 1999 as government secretary, before being elected to the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in 2003.
He rose through the ranks to become interior minister and education minister in previous Netanyahu governments.
In 2021 he joined the government of former prime minister Naftali Bennett as justice minister with the title of deputy prime minister.
His political star had, however, dimmed in recent years.
Though he participated in the emergency government formed in the wake of the October 7 attack, he joined the opposition in March after failing to get a seat in the war cabinet.
He is considered more right-wing than Netanyahu, but lacks his charisma.
He has spoken out in favor of the all-out annexation of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
His ideology is “that of the Likud” but he believes that the party has “abandoned its values under Netanyahu,” deputy Sharren Haskel, a close friend of Saar’s, told AFP.
With a father who grew up in Argentina and a mother with roots in Uzbekistan, Saar calls himself a practicing Jew while affirming that “every Israeli citizen must be able to live freely according to his conscience and way of life.”
He is married to high-profile Israeli journalist Geula Even, with whom he has two children.
A daughter from his first marriage, Alona Saar, is a popular actress.


Turkiye, Kyrgyzstan sign strategic partnership on Erdogan visit

Updated 06 November 2024
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Turkiye, Kyrgyzstan sign strategic partnership on Erdogan visit

  • Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov said in a statement: “We have taken an important decision to raise the level of strategic partnership between Kyrgyzstan and Turkiye to that of a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’“

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan: Turkiye and Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday agreed to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” boosting defense ties, during an official visit to the Central Asian state by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Ankara is strengthening its presence across the region, as it seeks to compete with the likes of Russia and China for influence.
Erdogan regularly visits Central Asia and will on Wednesday take part in a summit of the Organization of Turkic States, a Turkish-led initiative to promote its culture and ties across several former Soviet republics.
Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov said in a statement: “We have taken an important decision to raise the level of strategic partnership between Kyrgyzstan and Turkiye to that of a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership.’“
The two sides signed 19 agreements in areas including energy, defense and the fight against terrorism.
Japarov hailed “Kyrgyz-Turkish cooperation in the field of defense and the potential for further development.”
Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkiye has stepped up military cooperation with Central Asian states, a challenge to Moscow’s historic supremacy in the region.
Turkiye was the third-biggest investor in Kyrgyzstan in the first half of 2024, behind Russia and China.
But it lags in terms of trade, accounting for 3.8 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s imports and exports, against 34.2 percent for China and 19.5 percent for Russia.
 

 


Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’

Updated 06 November 2024
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Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’

ISTANBUL: Turkiye on Monday sacked three mayors in the Kurdish-majority southeast on alleged “terrorism” charges, despite Ankara’s apparent desire to seek a rapprochement with the Kurdish community.

In a sweep, the mayors of the cities of Mardin and Batman as well as the Halfeti district in Sanliurfa province were all removed and replaced with government-appointed trustees, the Interior Ministry said.

All three belong to DEM, the main pro-Kurdish party, and were elected in March’s local elections, when opposition candidates won in numerous towns and cities, including Istanbul.

Among those removed were Ahmet Turk, Mardin’s 82-year- old mayor, along with Batman mayor Gulistan Sonuk and Mehmet Karayilan in Halfeti.

The ministry outlined a string of allegations against them, frommembershipinanarmed group to disseminating propaganda for the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party, also known as PKK.

Since 1984, the PKK has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state in which more than 40,000 people have died. It is blacklisted as a “terror” group by Turkiye and its Western allies.

Kurds make up around 20 percent of Turkiye’s overall population.

DEM swiftly denounced the moveas“amajorattackonthe Kurdish people’s right to vote and be elected.”


Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon

Updated 06 November 2024
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Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon

BEIRUT: The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies on Tuesday launched an international emergency appeal asking donors to provide resources for Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah war.
IFRC also called on all parties to protect paramedics in the conflict that has left thousands of people dead and wounded, many of them over the past six weeks.
Jagan Chapagain, the secretary-general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told The Associated Press in Beirut that “needs are just growing so fast.” He met with officials and toured shelters housing people displaced by the conflict.
The IFRC said its emergency appeal for 100 million Swiss Francs ($115.8 million) is aimed at helping Lebanon and the Lebanese Red Cross through the ongoing conflict.

Jagan Chapagain, Secretary-General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP)

The 13-month war between Israel and Hezbollah has killed more than 3,000 people, wounded over 13,000 in Lebanon. Hundreds of thousands of the displaced are staying in shelters around the small nation that is passing through a historic economic crisis.
In northern Israel, 68 soldiers and 41 civilians have been killed since October 2023, according to the prime minister’s office. More than 60,000 people have been displaced from their homes.
The conflict dramatically escalated on Sept. 23, with intense Israeli airstrikes on south and east Lebanon as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs, leaving hundreds dead and leading to the displacement of nearly 1.2 million people.
Chapagain said people staying in community centers around the country need hygiene kits, non-food items, blankets and heaters as winter approaches. He added that even if the hostilities stop, it will take time for things to go back to normal and that is one of the reasons why the IFRC’s emergency appeal goes for two years.
“The global community needs to come together to find a political solution to the challenges this region has been facing for decades,” Chapagain said.
He said that more than 30 staff and volunteers globally have already been killed this year and dozens injured adding that many other organizations have also lost members of their staff.
“This is something unheard of many years ago,” he said about the 30 deaths, adding that among the countries where paramedics suffered most are Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Sudan.
In Lebanon, 17 members of the Lebanese Red Cross have been wounded since the conflict began while carrying out their rescue duties in different parts of Lebanon. Three of the 17 paramedics were wounded twice, according to IFRC.
“The Red Cross and Red Crescent emblems are protected,” said Chapagain.