Moscow conference on Afghan peace 

Russia reasserted its role as a peacemaker in Afghanistan by hosting a conference on March 18 to break the stalemate in intra-Afghan negotiations that began in Qatar last September. The three-day meeting was attended by the United States, China and Pakistan along with Qatar and Turkey that were invited as observers. The host country termed the event as trio-plus meeting since only major stakeholders were involved in consultations to strengthen the Afghan peace process. 

President Ashraf Ghani’s administration was also invited along with some other Afghan politicians, including former president Hamid Karzai, who are not part of the ruling coalition. The 12-member delegation that came from Kabul under the leadership of High Council for National Reconciliation Chairman Abdullah Abdullah included a politician and rights activist Habiba Sarabi who pointed out that she was the only woman in the meeting room. A 10-member Taliban delegation led by the group’s deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was also present at the occasion. 

There is no indication that any breakthrough in the deadlocked Doha talks was achieved. The event looked more like a forum for exchange of ideas where delegation leaders were asked to make opening statements which were then followed by some discussion. The United States will try to break the stalemate during its proposed intra-Afghan conference in Istanbul next month and also when the foreign ministers belonging to Afghanistan’s neighboring countries hold talks at a UN-sponsored event. In fact, Washington is aiming to seek agreement on a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban at the Istanbul conference. This is rather over-ambitious since a deal cannot be clinched in one big conference unless a lot of groundwork has been done beforehand. 

Russia’s peace initiative was overtaken by events since the US had already made certain new proposals to end the Afghan war by sending its special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad on his first visit to the region after he was retained by the administration of newly elected President Joe Biden. Subsequently, Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s sharply worded letter to President Ghani was leaked to the Afghan media. 

The divergent positions taken by rival Afghan factions during the talks in Moscow showed the deep divide that will not be easy to mend, though the broad agreement on peace process among Russia, China, Pakistan and the United States was a reason to remain hopeful. 

Rahimullah Yusufzai

Still, there were some positive takeaways from the Moscow meeting. The participating countries called for reduction of violence and backed a negotiated political settlement to end the protracted conflict. They advocated that the intra-Afghan talks should focus on fundamental issues such as ceasefire and formation of the future government. It demanded protection of the rights of women, children, men and war victims during the peace talks. 

The Taliban did not get the desired support at the Moscow meeting considering their good contacts with Pakistan, China and Russia that have pushed for their inclusion in any transitional or power-sharing arrangement as a result of the peace process. Disappointed, they did not display any enthusiasm for the Moscow joint statement while the Afghan government welcomed it. 

Although the joint statement asked for reduction of violence by all parties to the conflict, the demand was primarily aimed at the Taliban. It asked the group not to launch the annual spring offensive to help create an enabling environment for peace talks. The four countries made it clear they did not support the return of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan established by the Taliban between 1996 and 2001. The statement also said all sides should opt for diplomacy and respect women and minority rights instead of fighting with one another. 

The Taliban termed the joint statement opposing the return of the Emirate as unacceptable, arguing that only Afghan people had the right to decide what kind of government they wanted. The group also refused to take responsibility for the escalating violence. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar told the participants that the outfit had already reduced attacks in the country after signing the Doha agreement, though he added that the US should also meet its commitments mentioned in the deal. While he did not elaborate his statement further, he was seemingly referring to Taliban prisoner release and removal of names of the group’s leaders from the UN Security Council blacklist. The hawkish Taliban chief negotiator Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai warned of consequences if the US did not abide by the May 1 deadline to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. 

The divergent positions taken by rival Afghan factions during the talks in Moscow showed the deep divide that will not be easy to mend, though the broad agreement on peace process among Russia, China, Pakistan and the United States was a reason to remain hopeful.