DUBAI: Middle East economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic faster than anticipated, largely due to the acceleration of mass inoculation campaigns and an increase in oil prices. But the International Monetary Fund warned Sunday that an uneven vaccine distribution would derail the region’s rebound, as the prospects of rich and poor countries diverge.
In its latest report, the IMF again revised upward its 2020 economic outlook for the Mideast and North Africa, now outlining just a 3.4 percent contraction last year, with growth for the region’s oil exporters buoyed by a boom for commodities and rise in oil price, which hit $67 a barrel in March. Even with an expected dip to $57 a barrel by the end of 2021, the surge from last year’s all-time lows is boosting the oil-rich nations of the Gulf, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which also have moved swiftly toward widespread vaccination.
But elsewhere in the region, from Yemen and Sudan to Libya and Lebanon, where inflation soars, instability prevails and wars have left lasting scars, the damaging effects of the pandemic will drag on and cause economic harm, the IMF said — possibly for years to come.
“We are a year into the crisis and recovery is back, but it is a divergent recovery,” Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia department at the IMF, told The Associated Press. “We are at turning point. ... Vaccination policy is economic policy.”
The IMF expects economic growth to reach 4 percent for the Middle East this year. But that rosy outlook papers over the region’s deep economic divides.
For oil-rich economies, yawning deficits are expected to halve this year as revenues climb, more arms get jabbed and lockdown measures recede, said Azour. Thanks to strong government management of the virus’ successive waves and the jolt in oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s economy will expand 2.9 percent — compared to last year’s contraction of 4.1 percent. Higher oil prices come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies keep a lid on production and it seems unlikely that the US will quickly lift sanctions on Iran’s critical oil sector.
The IMF expects the UAE’s economy to grow this year by 3.2 percent, with Dubai’s World Expo, now rescheduled for October 2021, key to the nation’s recovery. Dubai hopes the massive event will draw 25 million visitors and a series of deals, heralding a bright post-pandemic future.
The UAE has launched among the world’s fastest inoculation campaigns, with over 90 doses administered per 100 residents as of this week. Still, the collapse of hospitality, tourism and retail presents challenges for Dubai, where a cascade of layoffs hit foreign workers and slashed the emirate’s population by 8.4 percent, according to ratings agency S&P Global.
The outlook is bleaker for fragile and developing economies, many with lagging vaccination campaigns, few resources for fiscal stimulus and revenues drawn heavily from sectors like tourism that have been slowest to recover from the pandemic.
Whereas rich countries plan to vaccinate most of their population in a few months, swaths of the region — from Afghanistan and Gaza to Iraq and Iran — likely won’t inoculate a significant portion of their populations until mid-2022, the IMF said.
Even that estimate may be optimistic. The region’s lowest-income countries could end up waiting until 2023 at the earliest for mass vaccination, according to the report. Meanwhile, many countries’ beleaguered health systems are straining under resurgent waves of infections, prompting authorities to impose new restrictions and inflict more economic pain.
The IMF expects a sluggish 2021 recovery for Egypt and Pakistan, oil importers reliant on tourism that saw an exodus of foreign investors last year. The fund revised down its growth estimate for Jordan, where the youth unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 55 percent. Sudan remains mired in debt and threatened by instability, but its economy could grow for the first time in years as it gains new access to international financial networks.
Lebanon, in the midst of its worst financial crisis ever, remains the only Mideast economy at risk of further contraction. The country has defaulted on its foreign debt and failed to implement economic reforms, let alone form a government. A giant explosion at the Beirut port last year wreaked havoc on the capital. Discussions with the IMF led nowhere after the Cabinet quit.
Azour declined to even offer a specific economic forecast for Lebanon this year, citing “all the uncertainties.”
In Iran, the IMF found reason to praise economic growth after years of decline, noting that the government’s resistance to virus-induced lockdowns that would have devastated its sanctions-hit economy had saved it from the worst of the pandemic’s fallout. The country’s economy is expected to grow 2.5 percent in 2021, Azour said, building on slight gains last year.
But Iran’s recovery remains far off as its vaccinations lag, inflation eliminates people’s savings and economic policies overlook the most vulnerable. The IMF continues to consider Iran’s $5 billion assistance request, which would be its first loan since 1962. Meanwhile, American sanctions remain in force as torturous discussions begin over a return to Tehran’s tattered 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
“A removal of the recently implemented sanctions will of course allow the Iranian economy to export more, trade more, and this will have a positive impact,” said Azour, while urging the government to tame inflation and better incorporate the private sector.
Despite the worsening inequality, the pandemic has shown the fortunes of the Mideast’s richest and poorest countries to be increasingly intertwined. Surging infections and foundering inoculation anywhere in the region could spread new variants that threaten overall economic and public health, the IMF reported.
“Therefore, any regional cooperation would be welcome going forward,” said Azour.
IMF: Vaccine inequity threatens Mideast’s economic recovery
https://arab.news/bxv85
IMF: Vaccine inequity threatens Mideast’s economic recovery
- IMF expects economic growth to reach 4 percent for the Middle East this year
- Outlook bleaker for developing countries says IMF
OPEC+ has proven to be oil markets’ central bank, says Saudi energy minister
RIYADH: OPEC+ has proven to be the “central bank” and regulator of the global oil market, providing much-needed stability, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said.
Speaking at the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman praised the alliance’s role in balancing oil markets amid global economic uncertainties.
“I would have to say that OPEC+ had proven to be an instrument that if it wasn’t invented by us and Russia and our colleagues, it should have been invented a long time ago because this is what OPEC+ had achieved in terms of bringing stability to the market and had proven that it is the central bank and the regulator of oil markets,” the energy minister said.
Prince Abdulaziz also highlighted the ongoing partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia through the Saudi-Russian Joint Committee, noting plans for Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to visit the Kingdom later this year with a high-level business delegation.
“I’m looking forward to host Alexander — the co-chair of our joint committee — to Saudi Arabia this year, with the biggest, most sizable business community participation,” he said.
Prince Abdulaziz emphasized that the collaboration seeks to deepen bilateral economic ties and foster diversified investment opportunities.
“We have a lot to showcase that bonding together. It will allow us to have a much more diversified relationship, and we are, as a government, working together to provide the right environment for those who want to invest in Saudi Arabia or in Russia or in any type or form of joint venturing that we should facilitate that and ensure that the investment environment is congenial for it to happen,” he added.
The minister described the energy alliance as a flexible mechanism responsive to changing global conditions, reaffirming Saudi Arabia’s commitment to cooperation with partners to maintain market stability.
Acknowledging the challenges facing Russia, Prince Abdulaziz noted the Kingdom’s support amid external restrictions.
“It’s been a challenging time what Russia is going through, but we have shown a great deal of understanding of the situation, and we’re trying to maneuver with the restrictions that are existing today,” he said.
“That has been the discharge of our leadership willingness to accommodate with this current situation and hopefully helping to support Russia in mitigating these exterior most daunting issues.”
On whether Saudi Arabia and Russia would compensate for any loss of Iranian crude supplies, the minister stressed that such scenarios are hypothetical and that OPEC+ decisions are collective.
“You give me a question that is not evidently seen happening, I don’t have an answer for you. Again, we only react to realities. But if anybody gives a question that is not relating to the reality today, I fail to see where we could predict things and how we would relate to it,” he said.
The minister clarified that OPEC+ consists of 22 member states and is not dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia alone. A core group of eight countries is tasked with engaging the full membership to ensure coordinated responses to market changes.
“To respond to a hypothetical question by giving a hypothetical answer, which none of us two here have the right to speak on behalf of everybody without knowing their opinion, is too much of an ask,” he added.
He concluded by highlighting OPEC+’s reputation as a reliable and adaptive organization.
“What we know and what Alexander was saying just a while ago is that we have, as OPEC even before, an OPEC+ attending to so many circumstances since its first, it was in sequence, even inception, that we have been a reliable organization, a serious organization, an effective organization, and attentive to circumstances when they prevail,” he said.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 10,610
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 19.58 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 10,610.71.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.4 billion ($1.7 billion), as 116 of the stocks advanced and 115 retreated.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 28.01 points, or 0.11 percent, to close at 26,175.83. This came as 35 of the listed stocks advanced while 41 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index lost 0.54 points, or 0.04 percent, to close at 1,367.14.
The best-performing stock of the day was Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund, whose share price surged 9.97 percent to SR7.50.
Seera Group Holding also recorded strong gains, with its share price rising 7.99 percent to SR23.80, while Banan Real Estate Co. climbed 7.14 percent to close at SR4.50.
Southern Province Cement Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 5.19 percent to SR27.40. Ataa Educational Co. also saw its stock prices fall 3.43 percent to SR59.10.
Leejam Sports Co. also saw its stock prices decline 3.01 percent to SR116.
On the announcements front, Advance International Communications and Technology said it has completed the conversion of one of its branches into an independent limited liability company under the name Innovation Passage Technology Co.
According to a statement on Tadawul, the move is part of the company’s strategy to restructure its operations by separating the wholesale business sector. The new entity will take over all wholesale functions and operations. The company stated that the transformation is not expected to have a significant financial impact and that any further updates will be announced as they arise.
Alujain Corp. announced that its board of directors has approved the distribution of SR51.9 million in cash dividends for the second quarter of 2025.
A bourse filing revealed that the number of shares eligible for dividends is 69.2 million, with the dividend per share set at SR0.75. The dividend represents 7.5 percent of the share’s par value.
Alujain shares closed the session up 2.74 percent at SR35.
United Cooperative Assurance Co. announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co. to evaluate a potential merger.
According to a Tadawul filing, both parties will conduct technical, financial, tax, legal, and actuarial due diligence, and will enter into non-binding discussions regarding the terms and conditions of the proposed transaction.
United Cooperative Assurance shares closed at SR6.70, up 0.75 percent.
Saudi Arabia’s PIF launches company to build and run Expo 2030
- New firm to turn site into multicultural hub post-event
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Co., a wholly owned entity tasked with developing, managing, and operating the infrastructure and programming for the Kingdom’s first World Expo.
During its development phases, the project is projected to contribute $64 billion to Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product and generate around 171,000 direct and indirect jobs. Once operational, it is expected to add $5.6 billion to the national economy.
According to an official release on Thursday, the newly established company will play a pivotal role not only in executing the large-scale event but also in preserving its long-term legacy.
Known as ERC, the company will fast-track operations to meet its ambitious mandate. It plans to collaborate with both local and international private sector partners to deliver on construction, cultural programming, and event management goals.
“ERC benefits from PIF’s diverse local and global ecosystem and the establishment of the company aligns with PIF’s local real estate strategy, which drives economic transformation and diversification, advancing urban innovation and enhancing quality of life, driven by the ambitious goals of Saudi Vision 2030,” said Saad Al-proud, head of PIF’s Local Real Estate Investment Division.
Covering an expansive 6 million sq. m, the Expo 2030 site will be one of the largest World Expo venues ever built. Strategically located north of Riyadh near the upcoming King Salman International Airport, it will offer direct access to major city landmarks.
Set to run from Oct. 1, 2030 to March 31, 2031, Expo 2030 Riyadh is expected to draw over 40 million visits. Following the event, ERC aims to repurpose the gated expo area into a “global village” — a multicultural destination featuring retail, food and beverages, and premium residential offerings, all aligned with the Kingdom’s push toward sustainable tourism and innovation.
Participating nations will have the opportunity to construct permanent pavilions, enabling a lasting impact beyond the event itself and encouraging long-term investment and business ties.
PIF emphasized that the initiative reflects its broader strategy to drive economic diversification while securing sustainable financial returns.
The fund remains at the forefront of delivering Saudi Arabia’s transformative giga-projects and real estate ventures, reshaping the national landscape and bolstering the Kingdom’s global positioning.
Riyadh secured the rights to host Expo 2030 in November 2024, winning the international vote in the first round — further solidifying its reputation as a fast-evolving capital that blends connectivity, sustainability, and high quality of life at scale.
Syria completes first global SWIFT transfer since war
DAMASCUS: Syrian Arab Republic has carried out its first international bank transaction via the SWIFT system since the outbreak of its 14-year civil war, its central bank governor said on Thursday, a milestone in the country’s push to reintegrate into the global financial system.
Abdelkader Husriyeh told Reuters in Damascus that a direct commercial transaction had been carried out from a Syrian to an Italian bank on Sunday, and that transactions with US banks could begin within weeks.
“The door is now open to more such transactions,” he said.
Syrian banks were largely cut off from the world during the civil war after a crackdown by Bashar Assad on anti-government protests in 2011 led Western states to impose sanctions, including on Syria’s central bank.
Assad was ousted as president in a lightning offensive by rebels last year and Syria has since taken steps to re-establish international ties, culminating in a May meeting between interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and US President Donald Trump in Riyadh.
The US then significantly eased its sanctions and some in Congress are pushing for them to be totally repealed. Europe has announced the end of its economic sanctions regime.
Syria needs to make transfers with Western financial institutions in order to bring in huge sums for reconstruction and to kickstart a war-ravaged economy that has left nine out of 10 people poor, according to the UN.
Husriyeh chaired a high-level virtual meeting on Wednesday bringing together Syrian banks, several US banks and US officials, including Washington's Syria envoy Thomas Barrack.
The aim of the meeting was to accelerate the reconnection of Syria’s banking system to the global financial system and Husriyeh extended a formal invitation to US banks to re-establish correspondent banking ties.
“We have two clear targets: have US banks set up representative offices in Syria and have transactions resume between Syrian and American banks. I think the latter can happen in a matter of weeks,” Husriyeh told Reuters.
Among the banks invited to Wednesday’s conference were JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citibank, though it was not immediately clear who attended.
Global FDI set to drop again this year after 11% fall in 2024: UNCTAD
Global foreign direct investment is set to fall again in 2025 primarily due to high investor uncertainty driven by ongoing trade tensions, according to a UN analysis.
In its latest report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development revealed that FDI dropped 11 percent to $1.5 trillion in 2024, marking a second year of decline.
While FDI flows were up 4 percent, this figure was inflated by volatile flows through conduit economies — nations that act as intermediaries for finances.
Ongoing trade tensions have lead to downward revisions of most indicators, including FDI prospects, capital formation, and exports of goods and services, as well as financial market volatility, and investor sentiment.
The views of UNCTAD align with a recent report released by the World Bank, which said that FDI flows into developing economies dropped to $435 billion in 2023, the lowest level since 2005, as rising trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and growing fragmentation curbed cross-border investment.
The World Bank added that FDI into advanced economies also dropped, sinking to $336 billion in 2023, the weakest level since 1996.
Commenting on the latest report, Antonio Guterres, secretary-general of the UN, said: “At a time when the world should be deepening cooperation and expanding opportunity, we are seeing the opposite.
“Barriers are rising. Globalization is retreating. And the consequences for sustainable development are profound.”
He added: “Infrastructure investment is slowing. Industrial investment is under strain. And developing countries – those most in need – are being left behind.
“Rising trade tensions, policy uncertainty and geopolitical divisions risk making the investment environment even worse.”
The UNCTAD analysis revealed that inward FDI inflows in Saudi Arabia totaled $15.73 billion in 2024, representing a 31 percent decline from the previous year.
The Kingdom’s outflows in 2024 were $22.04 billion, marking a year-on-year rise of 27.1 percent.
Geographically, FDI value in Europe stood at $182 billion last year, representing a decline of 58 percent compared to 2023.
North America attracted FDI worth $343 billion, a 23 percent increase year on year.
Africa’s FDI flows rose by 75 percent year on year, reaching $97 billion in 2024, while FDI flows in developing Asia stood at $605 billion, marking a 3 percent decline.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, FDI flows stood at $164 billion, representing a 12 percent drop compared to the previous year.
“Among developed countries, a sharp fall in inflows in Europe contrasted sharply with rising investment in North America. FDI flows to developing countries were flat, despite sizeable increases in Africa and in South-East Asia,” said the report
Earlier this month, global credit rating agency S&P Global said FDI inflows into Gulf Cooperation Council countries are expected to slow in 2025 due to rising investor uncertainty.
The outlook reflects shifting US trade policies, lower oil prices, and a more gradual rollout of economic diversification projects in the region.
S&P Global also forecast a net negative impact on global FDI in the near term, driven by the indirect effects of US tariffs, a weaker oil price outlook, and declining global investor confidence.
According to UNCTAD, international project finance also continued its slump in 2024, registering a 26 percent decline in value compared to the previous year.
“The global economy continues to grapple with a complex set of challenges: mounting debt, persistent underperformance in GDP (gross domestic product) growth, geopolitical tensions, and structural shifts in trade and investment flows,” said Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of UNCTAD.
She added: “Global foreign direct investment contracted for the second consecutive year. International project finance, critical for large-scale infrastructure and development, registered the steepest decline, falling by 26 percent.”
International project finance makes up a higher share of FDI in the least developed countries, which are therefore proportionally more affected by the downturn.
According to the analysis, the number of greenfield projects announced in industrial sectors increased by 3 percent year on year. However, their value fell by 5 percent to $1.3 trillion, still the second-highest on record.
The value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, which mostly affect FDI flows in developed countries, increased by 14 percent to $443 billion, still well below the average of the last decade.
“While there has been some weakness in overall M&A markets, the share of cross-border deals in the total is declining, with domestic deals and near-market acquisitions becoming more important in the face of growing policy risks and regulatory scrutiny,” said UNCTAD.
The report highlighted that the digital economy is the only sector to have seen growth in 2024, witnessing a 17 percent increase in project numbers and a doubling of initiative values.
“The digital economy is expanding at an annual rate of 10 to 12 percent, outpacing global GDP growth and accounting for a rising share of value creation worldwide,” said Grynspan.
She added: “Yet this growth is not equally distributed. Despite more than $500 billion in greenfield investment in the digital economy into developing countries over the past five years, this investment is heavily concentrated in a few countries.”
The UNCTAD secretary-general further said that several structurally weak and vulnerable economies remain marginalized, constrained by inadequate technical infrastructure, limited digital skills, and policy and regulatory uncertainty.
According to the report, investments aimed at achieving sustainable development goals also faced hurdles in 2024, as projects in renewable energy declined by 12 percent and those in critical minerals fell by almost 50 percent.
“What is most alarming, however, is the continued deterioration of investment flows into key sectors aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals,” said Grynspan.
She added: “This trend comes at a time when the world can least afford to fall short. Reversing this negative trend in Goals investment will demand not only more capital — both public and private — but also deeper alignment of investment flows with long-term sustainability goals.”
