JAKARTA: Southeast Asian leaders are to meet Myanmar’s top general and coup leader in an emergency summit in Indonesia Saturday, and are expected to press calls for an end to violence by security forces that has left hundreds of protesters dead as well as the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political detainees.
There is little hope for an immediate breakthrough in the two-hour gathering in Jakarta between Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and the six heads of state and three foreign ministers representing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But his decision to face them offers a rare chance for the 10-nation bloc to directly deal with the general who ousted one of its leaders in a Feb. 1 coup.
“The unfolding tragedy has serious consequences for Myanmar, ASEAN and the region,” Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on the eve of the summit.
One proposal, which has been discussed in preliminary meetings, is for Brunei Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah, the current ASEAN chair, to travel to Myanmar to meet the military leadership and Suu Kyi’s camp to encourage dialogue. He would be accompanied by ASEAN Secretary General Lim Jock Hoi – also from Brunei – if the junta agreed, a Southeast Asian diplomat told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media.
Another diplomat said humanitarian aid could be offered to Myanmar if conditions improved. The diplomat also spoke to AP on condition of anonymity for lack of authority to discuss such plans publicly.
Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi of Indonesia expressed hopes that “we can reach an agreement on the next steps that can help the people of Myanmar get out of this delicate situation.”
Following the coup, ASEAN, through Brunei, issued a statement that did not expectedly condemn the power grab but urged “the pursuance of dialogue, reconciliation and the return to normalcy in accordance with the will and interests of the people of Myanmar.” Amid Western pressure, however, the regional group has struggled to take a more forceful position on issues but has kept to its non-confrontational approach.
All ASEAN states agreed to meet Min Aung Hlaing but would not address him as Myanmar’s head of state in the summit, the Southeast Asian diplomat said. Critics have said ASEAN’s decision to meet him was unacceptable and amounted to legitimizing the overthrow and the deadly crackdown that followed. Daily shootings by police and soldiers have killed more than 700 protesters and bystanders, according to several independent tallies.
Amnesty International urged Indonesia and other ASEAN states to investigate Min Aung Hlaing over “credible allegations of responsibility for crimes against humanity in Myanmar.” As a state party to a UN convention against torture, Indonesia has a legal obligation to prosecute or extradite a suspected perpetrator on its territory, it said.
“The Myanmar crisis trigged by the military presents ASEAN with the biggest test in its history,” said Emerlynne Gil of the London-based rights group. “This is not an internal matter for Myanmar but a major human rights and humanitarian crisis which is impacting the entire region and beyond.”
Police dispersed dozens of protesters opposing the coup and the junta leader’s visit.
More than 4,300 police have fanned out across the Indonesian capital to secure the meetings, held under strict safeguards amid the pandemic. Indonesia has reported the highest number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in Southeast Asia.
The leaders of Thailand and the Philippines skipped the summit to deal with coronavirus outbreaks back home. Laos, which has the least number of infections in the region but this week imposed a lockdown, also canceled at the last minute. The face-to-face summit is the first by ASEAN leaders in more than a year.
ASEAN’s diversity, including the divergent ties of many of its members to either China or the United States, along with a bedrock policy of non-interference in each other’s domestic affairs and deciding by consensus, has hobbled the bloc’s ability to rapidly deal with crises.
Aside from Myanmar, the regional bloc groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
ASEAN leaders to meet Myanmar coup leader amid killings
https://arab.news/5ymts
ASEAN leaders to meet Myanmar coup leader amid killings
- There is little hope for an immediate breakthrough in the two-hour gathering in Jakarta
Scientists long ago envisioned the end of climate cooperation
Long before Donald Trump lurched away from diplomatic norms and the international rules-based order, scientists mapped out different potential futures to understand the possible implications for greenhouse gas emissions.
Developed a decade ago, five of these "pathways" became crucial to the work of the United Nations' IPCC climate expert panel.
These are not predictions for the 21st century. Rather, they envision what could happen with various societal changes including for trade, economic development, technological innovation and global population.
The most optimistic narrative foresees sustainable growth and improved equality. A second "middle-of-the-road" scenario is an extension of current trends.
The third is a world riven by rivalries, a fourth is blighted by increasing inequality, and the fifth assumes supercharged economic growth grounded in expanding fossil fuel use.
Keywan Riahi, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, who coordinated the development of the so-called Shared Socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), said the world has largely developed in line with the third scenario in recent years.
While it is certainly not a perfect fit, what we see now "is a much more fragmented world," Riahi told AFP. "Collaboration is more difficult, economic development is actually also not so optimistic."
Scientists' original description of the SSP3 scenario was: "A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues."
This "rocky road" is arguably the worst of all the hypothetical futures.
Planet-heating emissions are second only to economic expansion driven by oil, gas and coal.
But the fractured SSP3 world ranks first when it comes to damages from climate change, showing the largest population boom, and the weakest economic growth.
This scenario "reflects a current strain of populist isolationist politics that is ascendent today", climate scientist Zeke Hausfather noted in a recent newsletter post.
In 2021, Hausfather got blowback for calling SSP3 "Trump World". But "the actions in his second term around energy and trade seem to be playing out much more closely to SSP3 than other pathways", he said.
The US has ditched the Paris climate treaty, turned its back on global cooperation on science, trade and health, and eviscerating its international development budget.
Washington has lambasted UN sustainable development goals, especially related to climate change and women's rights.
Domestically, the world's second biggest carbon polluter has undermined progress on low-carbon technology, cancelled climate research, and even stymied weather data collection.
World leaders have expressed their disquiet.
"The global economy thrived on a foundation of openness and multilateralism underpinned by US leadership... but today it is fracturing," said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in late May.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney declared the global trade system in place for 80 years "over", and China's Xi Jinping urged the preservation of "the international order based on international law, and global fairness and justice".
There are important ways in which today's reality differs from the hypothetical SSP3 world.
World population projections are significantly lower, for instance.
And the development of climate tech has been "much more successful", Riahi said.
A dramatic drop in the cost of solar and wind power, as well as electric vehicles and batteries, has boosted the growth of low-carbon technologies.
Carbon dioxide emissions have also slowed, while predicted warming for the end of the century is lower than a decade ago -- albeit still reaching catastrophic levels.
Scientists are currently updating SSP projections and crafting a new set of climate narratives.
They have much to unpack.
Riahi said that even if there was a "complete collapse of climate policies globally", the previous worst-case emissions projections will likely not materialise because clean energy has become so cheap.
At the same time, he said, the world will almost certainly overshoot the Paris deal's aspirational goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the coming years.
This has forced scientists to consider a new set of questions.
What is the new best-case scenario for bending emissions down to zero?
If current policies persist, will emissions stay high for a longer period, causing temperatures to keep rising in the coming decades?
"What are the implications climatically of this high overshoot, which is unfortunately a more and more likely scenario if you extrapolate what we see at the moment?" said Riahi.
More than 200,000 Afghans have left Pakistan since April: Islamabad
- Millions of Afghans have poured into Pakistan over the past several decades, fleeing successive wars
- Over one million Afghans have left Pakistan since Islamabad launched its repatriation program in 2023
ISLAMABAD: More than 200,000 Afghans have left Pakistan since the government renewed a deportation drive in April, Islamabad’s ministry of interior said.
More than 135,000 Afghans left Pakistan in April, while the number dropped to 67,000 in May and more than 3,000 were sent back in the first two days of June, according to the ministry.
Millions of Afghans have poured into Pakistan over the past several decades, fleeing successive wars. Hundreds of thousands have come since the return of the Taliban government in 2021.
But over one million Afghans have left Pakistan since Islamabad launched its repatriation program in 2023, the ministry added.
The UN’s International Organization for Migration on Tuesday voiced concern over a surge in Afghan families being deported from Iran, recording 15,675 crossing in May, a more than two-fold increase from the previous month.
The influx across both borders threatens to strain Afghanistan’s already “fragile reception and reintegration systems,” IOM said in a statement.
South Korea’s new president Lee Jae-myung vows to pursue talks with North and bolster ties with US and Japan
- Lee Jae-myung’s government to deal with North Korean nuclear threats and its potential military aggressions with ‘strong deterrence’
- But he would ‘open a communication channel with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula through talks and cooperation’
SEOUL: South Korea’s new President Lee Jae-myung vowed Wednesday to restart dormant talks with North Korea and bolster a trilateral partnership with the US and Japan, as he laid out key policy goals for his single, five-year term.
Lee, who rose from childhood poverty to become South Korea’s leading liberal politician vowing to fight inequality and corruption, formally began his term earlier Wednesday, hours after winning a snap election that was triggered in April by the removal of then-President Yoon Suk Yeol over his ill-fated imposition of martial law late last year.
In his inaugural address at the National Assembly, Lee said that his government will deal with North Korean nuclear threats and its potential military aggressions with “strong deterrence” based on the solid South Korea-US military alliance. But he said he would “open a communication channel with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula through talks and cooperation.”
He said he’ll pursue pragmatic diplomacy with neighboring countries and boost trilateral Seoul-Washington-Tokyo cooperation based on the robust South Korea-US alliance.
“Through pragmatic diplomacy based on national interests, we will turn the crisis posed by the major shift in global economic and security landscapes into an opportunity to maximize our national interests,” Lee said.
Security and economic challenges lie ahead
It was unclear whether Lee’s election would cause any major, immediate shift in South Korea’s foreign policy. Lee, previously accused by critics of tilting toward China and North Korea and away from the US and Japan, has recently repeatedly stressed South Korea’s alliance with the US as the foundation of its foreign policy and avoided any contentious remarks that would raise questions on his views on the US and Japan.
“We’ll have to now see if the pressures of office will cause Lee Jae-myung to govern from the center — at least when it comes to matters of national security and the alliance with the United States,” said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The toughest external challenges awaiting Lee are US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and North Korea’s expanding military partnerships with Russia. But experts earlier said whoever becomes president can’t do much to secure major progress in South Korea’s favor on those issues.
During his inauguration speech, Lee didn’t directly mention trade issues with the US
US and Japan react
The US and Japan said they congratulated Lee’s election and expressed their commitments to developing three-way cooperation.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he wants to hold summit talks with Lee “as early as possible,” saying he hopes to further promote bilateral ties, both public and commercial. The US State Department said that Seoul and Washington share “an ironclad commitment” to the alliance grounded in their mutual defense treaty, shared values and deep economic ties.
It’s unclear how North Korea would react to Lee’s speech, as it has shunned any talks with South Korea since 2019. North Korea in recent years has supplied weapons and troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine, and South Korea, the US and their partners suspect Russia might in return transfer high-tech technologies to North Korea to help it perfect its nuclear weapons program.
Russia’s Tass news agency said Wednesday that one of President Vladimir Putin’s top security officials, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, has arrived in Pyongyang for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in the latest sign of the countries’ alignment over Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Lee said revitalizing a slowing domestic economy would be his top priority and that his government would immediately launch an emergency task force to wage a “head-on battle” against the threats of recession. He also promised more aggressive government spending to help spur economic activity.
South Korea’s central bank last week cut its key interest rate and sharply lowered its growth outlook for 2025 to 0.8 percent, as it moved to counter Trump’s tariff hikes and weak domestic demand worsened by recent political turmoil.
South Korea still faces political divide
Lee also called for unity to address the country’s stark political divide deepened after Yoon’s martial law debacle, saying that he will “answer the people’s solemn call to let hope bloom over deep and painful wounds.” Lee still promised a thorough investigation into the circumstances surrounding Yoon’s martial law imposition, describing it as a “rebellion that seized people’s sovereignty with arms.”
Yoon and some of his top military and police officers already stand trial on high-stakes rebellion charges in connection with martial law. Lee’s push to bring those involved in Yoon’s martial law stunt accountable has subsequently caused speculations among his opponents that he would launch political revenge against Yoon associates and senior prosecutors whom he previously accused of fabricating evidence to initiate criminal charges against him.
Lee faces five trials on corruption and other allegations, but experts say those trials will likely stop during his term because the South Korean constitution gives a sitting president immunity from most criminal prosecutions.
Lee also reiterated his campaign vows to reduce inequality and pledged to address the imbalance between the greater Seoul capital area and less developed regions. He said that “the polarization fueled by inequality is now hindering further growth.”
Lee’s term began immediately without the usual two-month transition period after the National Election Commission formally confirmed his election victory.
NATO’S Baltic drills are part of preparations for a potential clash with Russia, TASS reports
- BALTOPS – NATO’s annual exercise in the Baltic Sea and the regions surrounding it – is being held this month
NATO’S Baltic drills are part of the alliance’s preparations for a potential military clash with Russia, TASS news agency cited Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko as saying in remarks published on Wednesday.
“We assess NATO’s military activity as part of preparations for military clashes with Russia,” TASS cited Grushko as saying.
“If we look at the focus of these exercises, the concept, the structure of the deployment of forces, the forces themselves, their quality, the tasks that are formulated for these exercises, then this is a fight against a comparable adversary,” Grushko said according to TASS.
BALTOPS – NATO’s annual exercise in the Baltic Sea and the regions surrounding it – is being held this month.
Musk calls Trump’s big beautiful bill ‘a disgusting abomination’
- Musk left his formal role in the administration last week as his time as a special government employee with the Department of Government Efficiency came to an end
WASHINGTON: Elon Musk on Tuesday amplified his criticism of the sweeping tax and spending bill that President Donald Trump has been pushing fellow Republicans in Congress to embrace, calling it a “disgusting abomination” that will increase the deficit.
“I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore,” the billionaire Musk wrote in an X post. “This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.
“Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.”
The broadside comes as Trump pressures Republicans in the Senate to approve the legislation he dubbed the “big, beautiful bill,” which has been passed in the House of Representatives.
Trump appointed Musk, the world’s richest person, to lead a government cost-cutting and efficiency drive, during which he upended several federal agencies but ultimately failed to deliver the massive savings he had sought.
Musk left his formal role in the administration last week as his time as a special government employee with the Department of Government Efficiency came to an end.
