Scientists say India government ignored warnings amid coronavirus surge

A patient breathes with the help of oxygen provided by a Gurdwara, a place of worship for Sikhs, under a tent installed along the roadside amid Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic in Ghaziabad on May 1, 2021. (AFP)
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Updated 02 May 2021
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Scientists say India government ignored warnings amid coronavirus surge

  • The warning about the new variant in early March was issued by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genetics Consortium, or INSACOG

NEW DELHI: A forum of scientific advisers set up by the government warned Indian officials in early March of a new and more contagious variant of the coronavirus taking hold in the country, five scientists who are part of the forum told Reuters.
Despite the warning, four of the scientists said the federal government did not seek to impose major restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. Millions of largely unmasked people attended religious festivals and political rallies that were held by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leaders of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and opposition politicians.
Tens of thousands of farmers, meanwhile, continued to camp on the edge of New Delhi protesting Modi’s agricultural policy changes.
The world’s second-most populous country is now struggling to contain a second wave of infections much more severe than its first last year, which some scientists say is being accelerated by the new variant and another variant first detected in Britain. India reported 386,452 new cases on Friday, a global record.
The spike in infections is India’s biggest crisis since Modi took office in 2014. It remains to be seen how his handling of it might affect Modi or his party politically. The next general election is due in 2024. Voting in the most recent local elections was largely completed before the scale of the new surge in infections became apparent.
The warning about the new variant in early March was issued by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genetics Consortium, or INSACOG. It was conveyed to a top official who reports directly to the prime minister, according to one of the scientists, the director of a research center in northern India who spoke on condition of anonymity. Reuters could not determine whether the INSACOG findings were passed on to Modi himself.
Modi’s office did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters.
INSACOG was set up as a forum of scientific advisers by the government in late December specifically to detect genomic variants of the coronavirus that might threaten public health. INSACOG brings together 10 national laboratories capable of studying virus variants.
INSACOG researchers first detected B.1.617, which is now known as the Indian variant of the virus, as early as February, Ajay Parida, director of the state-run Institute of Life Sciences and a member of INSACOG, told Reuters.
INSACOG shared its findings with the health ministry’s National Center for Disease Control (NCDC) before March 10, warning that infections could quickly increase in parts of the country, the director of the northern India research center told Reuters. The findings were then passed on to the Indian health ministry, this person said. The health ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Around that date, INSACOG began to prepare a draft media statement for the health ministry. A version of that draft, seen by Reuters, set out the forum’s findings: the new Indian variant had two significant mutations to the portion of the virus that attaches to human cells, and it had been traced in 15% to 20% of samples from Maharashtra, India’s worst-affected state.
The draft statement said that the mutations, called E484Q and L452R, were of “high concern.” It said “there is data of E484Q mutant viruses escaping highly neutralising antibodies in cultures, and there is data that L452R mutation was responsible for both increased transmissibility and immune escape.”
In other words, essentially, this meant that mutated versions of the virus could more easily enter a human cell and counter a person’s immune response to it.
The ministry made the findings public about two weeks later, on March 24, when it issued a statement to the media that did not include the words “high concern.” The statement said only that more problematic variants required following measures already underway — increased testing and quarantine. Testing has since nearly doubled to 1.9 million tests a day.
Asked why the government did not respond more forcefully to the findings, for example by restricting large gatherings, Shahid Jameel, chair of the scientific advisory group of INSACOG, said he was concerned that authorities were not paying enough attention to the evidence as they set policy.
“Policy has to be based on evidence and not the other way around,” he told Reuters. “I am worried that science was not taken into account to drive policy. But I know where my jurisdiction stops. As scientists we provide the evidence, policymaking is the job of the government.”
The northern India research center director told Reuters the draft media release was sent to the most senior bureaucrat in the country, Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, who reports directly to the prime minister. Reuters was unable to learn whether Modi or his office were informed of the findings. Gauba did not respond to a request for comment.
The government took no steps to prevent gatherings that might hasten the spread of the new variant, as new infections quadrupled by April 1 from a month earlier.
Modi, some of his top lieutenants, and dozens of other politicians, including opposition figures, held rallies across the country for local elections throughout March and into April.
The government also allowed the weeks-long Kumbh Mela religious festival, attended by millions of Hindus, to proceed from mid-March. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of farmers were allowed to remain camped on the outskirts of the capital New Delhi to protest against new agriculture laws.
To be sure, some scientists say the surge was much larger than expected and the setback cannot be pinned on political leadership alone. “There is no point blaming the government,” Saumitra Das, director of the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, which is part of INSACOG, told Reuters.

STRICT MEASURES NOT TAKEN
INSACOG reports to the National Center for Disease Control in New Delhi. NCDC director Sujeet Kumar Singh recently told a private online gathering that strict lockdown measures had been needed in early April, according to a recording of the meeting reviewed by Reuters.
“The exact time, as per our thinking, was 15 days before,” Singh said in the April 19 meeting, referring to the need for stricter lockdown measures.
Singh did not say during the meeting whether he warned the government directly of the need for action at that time. Singh declined to comment to Reuters.
Singh told the April 19 gathering that more recently, he had relayed the urgency of the matter to government officials.
“It was highlighted very, very clearly that unless drastic measures are taken now, it will be too late to prevent the mortality which we are going to see,” said Singh, referring to a meeting which took place on April 18. He did not identify which government officials were in the meeting or describe their seniority.
Singh said some government officials in the meeting worried that mid-sized towns could see law and order problems as essential medical supplies like oxygen ran out, a scenario that has already begun to play out in parts of India.
The need for urgent action was also expressed the week before by the National Task Force for COVID-19, a group of 21 experts and government officials set up last April to provide scientific and technical guidance to the health ministry on the pandemic. It is chaired by V.K. Paul, Modi’s top coronavirus adviser.
The group had a discussion on April 15 and “unanimously agreed that the situation is serious and that we should not hesitate in imposing lockdowns,” said one scientist who took part.
Paul was present at the discussion, according to the scientist. Reuters could not determine if Paul relayed the group’s conclusion to Modi. Paul did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters.
Two days after Singh’s April 18 warning to government officials, Modi addressed the nation on April 20, arguing against lockdowns. He said a lockdown should be the last resort in fighting the virus. India’s two-month-long national lockdown a year ago put millions out of work and devastated the economy.
“We have to save the country from lockdowns. I would also request the states to use lockdowns as the last option,” Modi said. “We have to try our best to avoid lockdowns and focus on micro-containment zones,” he said, referring to small, localized lockdowns imposed by authorities to control outbreaks.
India’s state governments have wide latitude in setting health policy for their regions, and some have acted independently to try to control the spread of the virus.
Maharashtra, the country’s second-most populous state, which includes Mumbai, imposed tough restrictions such as office and store closures early in April as hospitals ran out of beds, oxygen and medicines. It imposed a full lockdown on April 14.

‘TICKING TIME BOMB’
The Indian variant has now reached at least 17 countries including Britain, Switzerland and Iran, leading several governments to close their borders to people traveling from India.
The World Health Organization has not declared the India mutant a “variant of concern,” as it has done for variants first detected in Britain, Brazil, and South Africa. But the WHO said on April 27 that its early modelling, based on genome sequencing, suggested that B.1.617 had a higher growth rate than other variants circulating in India.
The UK variant, called B.1.1.7, was also detected in India by January, including in the northern state of Punjab, a major epicenter for the farmers’ protests, Anurag Agrawal, a senior INSACOG scientist, told Reuters.
The NCDC and some INSACOG laboratories determined that a massive spike in cases in Punjab was caused by the UK variant, according to a statement issued by Punjab’s state government on March 23.
Punjab imposed a lockdown from March 23. But thousands of farmers from the state remained at protest camps on the outskirts of Delhi, many moving back and forth between the two places before the restrictions began.
“It was a ticking time bomb,” said Agrawal, who is director of the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, which has studied some samples from Punjab. “It was a matter of an explosion, and public gatherings is a huge problem in a time of pandemic. And B.1.1.7 is a really bad variant in terms of spreading potential.”
By April 7, more than two weeks after Punjab’s announcement on the UK variant, cases of coronavirus began rising sharply in Delhi. Within days, hospital beds, critical care facilities, and medical oxygen began running out in the city. At some hospitals, patients died gasping for air before they could be treated. The city’s crematoriums overflowed with dead bodies.
Delhi is now suffering one of the worst infection rates in the country, with more than three out of every 10 tests positive for the virus.
India overall has reported more than 300,000 infections a day for the past nine days, the worst streak anywhere in the world since the pandemic began. Deaths have surged, too, with the total exceeding 200,000 this week.
Agrawal and two other senior government scientists told Reuters that federal health authorities and local Delhi officials should have been better prepared after seeing what the variants had done in Maharashtra and Punjab. Reuters could not determine what specific warnings were issued to whom about preparing for a huge surge.
“We are in a very grave situation,” said Shanta Dutta, a medical research scientist at the state-run National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases. “People listen to politicians more than scientists.”
Rakesh Mishra, director of the Center for Cellular and Molecular Biology, which is part of INSACOG, said the country’s scientific community was dejected.
“We could have done better, our science could have been given more significance,” he told Reuters. “What we observed in whatever little way, that should have been used better.”


Malaysia arrests 36 Bangladeshis over IS support

Updated 3 sec ago
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Malaysia arrests 36 Bangladeshis over IS support

“The group attempted to recruit members to fight in Syria or for Daesh,” Khalid said
Of those detained by Malaysian authorities, five suspects were subsequently charged for participating in terrorist organizations

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian police said Friday they have arrested 36 Bangladeshi migrant workers suspected of supporting the Daesh group by promoting its ideology and raising funds through social media.

Police inspector-general Mohd Khalid Ismail said the Bangladesh nationals, who had arrived in Malaysia to work in factories, construction sites and petrol stations, were arrested in coordinated operations since April.

“The group attempted to recruit members to fight in Syria or for Daesh,” Khalid said in a televised news conference on Friday.

“They raised funds to be sent to Syria, and also to Bangladesh,” he said, adding that collections were transmitted through e-wallets and international funds transfer services.

Once in control of large swathes of Syria and Iraq, Daesh was territorially defeated in Syria in 2019 largely due to the efforts of Kurdish-led forces supported by an international coalition. It has maintained a presence mainly in the country’s vast desert.

Of those detained by Malaysian authorities, five suspects were subsequently charged for participating in terrorist organizations, spreading extremist ideologies and raising funds for terrorist activities.

Another 16 are still being probed for their support of the militant movement, while 15 more have been issued deportation orders.

“We believe they have between 100 to 150 members in their WhatsApp group,” Khalid said, adding investigations were ongoing.

“They collected an annual membership fee of about $118 (500 Malaysian ringgit) while further donations were made at their own discretion,” the police chief said.

Asked if the militant group had links to Daesh cells in other countries, Khalid said the police were still working with “our counterparts in other countries as well as Interpol... to uncover their terror network.”

Malaysia depends significantly on foreign workers to meet labor demands in the nation’s key manufacturing and agriculture sectors, with tens of thousands of Bangladeshi nationals arriving each year to fill these roles.

Cameroon’s 92-year-old president faces emerging rivals

Updated 54 min 21 sec ago
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Cameroon’s 92-year-old president faces emerging rivals

  • The government released a terse statement announcing Tchiroma had been replaced, without mentioning he had resigned

YAOUNDE, Cameroon: At 92, the world’s oldest head of state, Cameroonian President Paul Biya, faces defections by allies-turned-rivals jockeying to replace him in elections that could end his four-plus decades in power.
Biya, who has led Cameroon with an iron fist since 1982, has had two key allies defect back-to-back as the African country heads for elections in October.
First was Employment Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who stepped down and announced on June 26 he was running for president for his party, the Cameroon National Salvation Front.
Two days later, Mnister of State Bello Bouba Maigari, a former prime minister, also jumped in in the presidential race.
Neither defection appears to have fazed the veteran leader.
The government released a terse statement announcing Tchiroma had been replaced, without mentioning he had resigned.
Biya’s camp also downplayed the challenge from Maigari, who leads the government-allied National Union for Democracy and Progress and has been close to the president for nearly three decades.
“Nothing new here,” Fame Ndongo, communications chief for the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement wrote in a front-page column Monday in the state newspaper, the Cameroon Tribune.
Biya had “long ago decoded the premonitory signs of these departures, which are part of the classic political game in an advanced liberal democracy,” Ndongo said.
By statute, Biya is automatically the ruling party’s presidential candidate, though he has not yet confirmed he will run.
The nonagenarian’s public appearances have grown rare and rumors of poor health are swirling.
Tchiroma and Maigari have challenged Biya before.
Both ran against him in the 1992 election.
Tchiroma had just been released from prison, and Maigari was just returning from exile at the time.
But both men, powerful figures from the country’s politically important, traditionally pro-government north, soon fell in line with Biya.
That has drawn criticism from some.
Northern Cameroon’s people “are rotting in poverty,” said Severin Tchokonte, a professor at the region’s University of Garoua.
“Supporting the regime all this time amounts to betraying those people, who have no water, no electricity, no infrastructure to ensure their minimal well-being,” he said.
Tchiroma has sought to distance himself from Biya’s tainted legacy, drawing a line between “yesterday” and “today.”
“Admittedly, we didn’t manage to lift you from poverty yesterday, but today, if we come together... we can do it,” he told a rally in Garoua in June.
Cameroon’s last presidential election, in 2018, was marred by violence.
Only around 53 percent of registered voters took part.
The ruling CPDM has long relied on alliances with potential rivals to keep it in power.
But Cameroon is in dire economic straits, and there are mounting calls for change, especially on social media.
With many of the country’s 28 million people mired in poverty, there could be a mass protest vote at the polls.
That may not benefit Tchiroma and Maigari, however.
Both face accusations of acting as Biya puppets to divert votes from more hard-line opponents such as Maurice Kamto of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (CRM) — a charge both men deny.
“Bello and Tchiroma have been with the CPDM a long time. They could be looking to fracture and weaken the opposition to contain the surge of Maurice Kamto and the CRM,” said Tchokonte.
“If the CRM gets votes in the north, that could tip the balance.”
There is a “large, cross-regional” demand for change in Cameroon, said Anicet Ekane, the veteran leader of opposition party Manidem.
“It will be increasingly difficult for (Biya) to count on elites to tell people how to vote and avoid a national movement against the government,” he said.
Biya urged Cameroonians in February to ignore “the sirens of chaos” being sounded by “certain irresponsible individuals.”
“I can assure you my determination to serve you remains intact,” he said last year.

 


Power outage hits the Czech Republic and disrupts Prague public transport

Updated 04 July 2025
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Power outage hits the Czech Republic and disrupts Prague public transport

  • Prague’s entire subway network was inoperative starting at noon
  • “We are facing an extraordinary and unpleasant situation,” Fiala said

PRAGUE: A temporary power outage hit parts of the Czech Republic’s capital and other areas of the country Friday, bringing public transport and trains to a standstill, officials said.

Prague’s entire subway network was inoperative starting at noon, the capital city’s transport authority said, though subway service was restored within half an hour.

Prime Minister Petr Fiala said in a post on X that the outage hit other parts of the country and authorities were dealing with the problem.

“We are facing an extraordinary and unpleasant situation,” Fiala said, adding it was a priority to renew power supplies.

The CEPS power grid operator acknowledged problems in parts of four regions in northern and eastern Czech Republic. It said a fallen electricity line in the northwestern part of the country was identified as a possible cause for the outage.

Officials have ruled out a cyber or terror attack.

Of the eight substations in the grid that were affected, including a major one in Prague, five renewed operations in less than two hours, CEPS said.

Industry and Trade Minister Lukas Vlcek said the cause was likely a “mechanical malfunction.”

Most trams on the right bank of the Vltava River in Prague were halted, while the left bank was not affected. Some trains near Prague and other regions could not operate, causing delays but the situation was gradually getting back to normal.

There were no immediate reports that Václav Havel Airport Prague, the city’s international airport, was hit by the power outage.

In downtown Prague, stores and restaurant that remained open accepted only payments in cash.


Pro-Palestinian group loses bid to block UK government’s ban under anti-terrorism laws

Updated 04 July 2025
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Pro-Palestinian group loses bid to block UK government’s ban under anti-terrorism laws

  • At a hearing on Friday at the Hight Court in London, the group had sought to block ban, which will come into force midnight

LONDON: The pro-Palestinian activist group Palestine Action lost a bid to block the British government’s decision to ban it under anti-terrorism laws after activists broke into a military base last month and vandalized two planes.

At a hearing on Friday at the Hight Court in London, the group had sought to block the ban, which will come into force at midnight.

The ban, which was approved by Parliament earlier this week, will make membership of the group and support of its actions a criminal offense punishable by up to 14 years in prison.

The ban was triggered after pro-Palestinian activists broke into a Royal Air Force base in Brize Norton, damaging two planes using red paint and crowbars in protest at the British government’s ongoing military support for Israel in its war in Gaza.

Police said that the incident caused around 7 million pounds ($9.4 million) worth of damage, with four people charged in connection with the incident.

The four, aged between 22 and 35, were charged Thursday with conspiracy to commit criminal damage and conspiracy to enter a prohibited place for purposes prejudicial to the interests of the UK No pleas were entered at Westminster Magistrates’ Court in central London and the four are scheduled to appear on July 18 at the Central Criminal Court.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper announced plans to proscribe Palestine Action as a terrorist organization a few days after the break-in. She said the vandalism to the two planes was “disgraceful,” adding that the group had a “long history of unacceptable criminal damage.”


Russia’s recognition of Taliban rule marks start of geopolitical shift, experts say

Updated 04 July 2025
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Russia’s recognition of Taliban rule marks start of geopolitical shift, experts say

  • Afghan FM says Russia’s recognition would ‘set a good example for other countries’
  • No other nation has formally recognized Taliban government after its 2021 takeover

KABUL: Russia’s formal recognition of the Taliban government as the legitimate authority in Afghanistan could mark the beginning of a major geopolitical shift in the region, experts said on Friday.

Russia became the first country on Thursday to officially recognize the Taliban rule, nearly four years since the group took control of Afghanistan.

Moscow’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, had “officially conveyed his government’s decision to recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” during a meeting in Kabul with the country’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Mutaqqi, according to a statement issued late on Thursday by the Afghan Foreign Ministry.

This was followed by the Russian Foreign Ministry announcing hours later that it had accepted the credentials of a new ambassador of Afghanistan, saying that “official recognition of the government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will give impetus to the development of productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields.”

Muttaqi welcomed the decision and said in a statement that it would “set a good example for other countries.”

No other nation has formally recognized the Taliban government after it seized power in 2021, after US-led forces staged a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan following 20 years of war.

However, a handful of countries, including China and the UAE have designated ambassadors to Kabul, while a number of foreign governments have continued the work of their diplomatic missions in the Afghan capital.

“Russia’s decision to recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a huge step. It’s one of the biggest achievements of the Islamic Emirate’s foreign policy in the last more than four years. It can be the beginning of a major geopolitical shift in the region and globally,” Naseer Ahmad Nawidy, political science professor at Salam University in Kabul, told Arab News. 

“The US’ one-sided position to support Israel in the war against Gaza and attack Iran compelled Iran and Russia to take independent steps, ignoring the US in their decisions. It’s a new phase towards moving to a multipolar world.”

With Moscow’s role as a key political player in Central Asia, its recognition of the Taliban will likely influence other countries in the region to follow suit, he added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has steadily built ties with the Taliban government, despite it being widely shunned by the international community due to repeated human rights violations.

The rights of Afghan women in particular have been curtailed since the Taliban takeover. They are barred from secondary schools and higher education, restricted in public places and not allowed to take up most of the jobs available in the country.

“I consider this recognition as a deep stab in the back as an Afghan woman and for Afghan women who have been deprived of life, education, work, freedom,” Afghan women’s rights advocate Riha Ghafoorzai told Arab News.

Under the Taliban, Afghan society has been turned “into a political prison, with no free press, no political opposition, and no civil rights,” she said.

“Recognizing such a rule is an insult to the sacrifices of thousands of Afghans who have fought for a modern, free, and democratic Afghanistan.”

With the recognition, Russia effectively broke an international consensus that was aimed at forcing the Taliban to listen to public demands, implement reforms and establish a legitimate system.

But instead, Moscow is sending “a message to the Taliban that there is no need for reform, the international community will soften and the regime will eventually be legitimized, even if it is against the nation,” Ghafoorzai added.

“Russia’s recognition of the Taliban is a profound political message that will have far-reaching and long-term consequences for the geopolitical balance of the region, international norms, and the fate of the Afghan people,” she said.

“Recognizing extremism is a great political betrayal of democracy. I hope that the international community will closely examine this situation for the future of humanity.”