LNG shipments from Qatar to UAE to resume, signaling improving ties

An LNG cargo is on its way from Qatar to Dubai for the first time since 2017. (AFP)
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Updated 12 May 2021
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LNG shipments from Qatar to UAE to resume, signaling improving ties

  • Qatar has also resumed monthly exports of condensate to the UAE

DUBAI: A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker that loaded cargo from Qatar is signaling the UAE as its destination, the first such shipment since mid-2017, reflecting improving ties between the countries.
LNG tankers sometimes change destination, but if the shipment is completed, this would be the first time a Qatari LNG cargo has been shipped to the UAE since May 2017, ship-tracking data from Refinitiv Eikon and data intelligence firm Kpler showed.
The UAE and other countries in the region severed relations with Qatar in mid-2017 over accusations that Doha supports terrorism, a charge that it denies.
But the UAE re-opened all its land, sea and air entry points with Qatar this year after Saudi Arabia announced a breakthrough in ending a dispute between Gulf Arab states and Qatar at a summit. Before the dispute, Qatar was a regular exporter of LNG to the UAE during the summer, when demand for power generation increases. read more
The tanker, Al Ghariya, loaded a cargo from Ras Laffan on May 10 and is at anchor but is showing that it is due to discharge the cargo in Jebel Ali, in the UAE, on May 13, data showed on Wednesday.
Another LNG tanker, Al Gattara, which had loaded from Ras Laffan on May 5 had also initially signaled Jebel Ali as its destination but diverted to Asia, Kpler analyst Rebecca Chia said.
Both tankers are on long-term charter to Qatargas, she added.
Qatar has also resumed monthly exports of condensate to the UAE since February, shipping data on Refinitiv Eikon showed.
Qatari condensate exports to the UAE jumped to 1.7 million barrels in April, up from 287,000 barrels in February, the data showed.


Saudi Aramco raises June oil prices for Asian markets

Updated 05 May 2025
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Saudi Aramco raises June oil prices for Asian markets

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco has increased its official selling price for crude oil destined for Asia in June, ending a two-month streak of price cuts, the company confirmed in an official statement on Sunday.

The state-owned oil giant raised the price of its benchmark Arab Light crude by $0.20, setting it at $1.40 per barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai crude prices.

The adjustment comes despite persistent downward pressure on global oil markets due to concerns over rising supply and a fragile demand outlook.

The move follows Saturday’s announcement from the OPEC+ alliance, which agreed to boost oil production for a second consecutive month. The group, which includes both OPEC members and key allies like Russia, plans to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in June.

Market observers are now closely watching the outcome of the next OPEC+ meeting, scheduled for May 5, which will further clarify the group’s production strategy heading into summer.

Saudi Aramco prices its crude oil across five density-based grades: Super Light (greater than 40), Arab Extra Light (36-40), Arab Light (32-36), Arab Medium (29-32), and Arab Heavy (below 29).

The company’s monthly pricing decisions impact the cost of around 9 million barrels per day of crude exported to Asia and serve as a pricing benchmark for other major regional producers, including Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq.

In the North American market, Aramco set the May OSP for Arab Light at $3.40 per barrel above the Argus Sour Crude Index.

Aramco determines its OSPs based on market feedback from refiners and an evaluation of crude oil value changes over the past month, taking into account yields and product prices.


UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar sustain non-oil growth in April: S&P Global

Updated 05 May 2025
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UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar sustain non-oil growth in April: S&P Global

RIYADH: The non-oil private sectors of the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar continued their expansion in April, supported by strong demand, improving output, and stable employment conditions, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys released by S&P Global.

In the UAE, the headline PMI held steady at 54 for a second consecutive month, reflecting continued momentum in the country’s non-oil economy. While output growth eased to a seven-month low, firms ramped up hiring at the fastest rate in nearly a year to manage capacity pressures. New orders surged, underpinned by the strongest international demand in five months.

This robust performance aligns with a wider regional trend of economic diversification, as Gulf nations—including Saudi Arabia—work to reduce their long-standing reliance on oil revenues.

“The April PMI results signaled a notable uptick in hiring activity across the non-oil private sector,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“After several months of mild increases in payroll numbers, despite robust sales growth, job creation rose to its highest level in 11 months.”

Owen noted that the hiring push was largely aimed at easing backlogs, which, while still rising, did so at the slowest pace in six months. “That said, employment growth was still modest overall, adding to suggestions that some firms may be struggling to recruit,” he added.

Any PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the non-oil private sector, while a figure below 50 denotes contraction.

Business confidence in the UAE climbed to its highest level so far in 2025, as firms cited strong demand pipelines and positive expectations. Input purchases rose again in April, though at a slower pace than March, which had marked a 68-month high.

“Firms are hopeful that elevated demand levels and strong pipelines, as characterized by steeply rising backlogs, should propel activity higher in the coming months,” Owen said.

Despite increased purchasing and faster supplier delivery times, stock levels remained largely unchanged for the second consecutive month. Business optimism also rose for the third straight month in April.

In Dubai, operating conditions in the non-oil private sector improved at a slower pace due to weaker growth in new business inflows. Nonetheless, order books continued to expand sharply, driving strong overall business activity. Employment rebounded in April after a brief dip in March, as companies aimed to boost capacity. However, firms in Dubai expressed subdued confidence about future activity, with sentiment among the lowest on record.

Kuwait sees strongest output

Kuwait's non-oil private sector saw significant gains in April, with the country’s PMI rising to 54.2 from 52.3 in March—marking one of the sharpest expansions on record since the survey began in 2018.

“It was a bumper start to the second quarter of 2025 for non-oil companies in Kuwait, with a further influx of new orders leading companies to expand output at one of the sharpest rates since the survey began,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The expansion was driven by robust new order growth, supported by competitive pricing and strategic marketing efforts. However, firms faced rising input costs that made it harder to maintain price stability.

While employment rose only marginally, the minimal hiring contributed to a further buildup in outstanding work.

“It remains to be seen, however, whether firms will be able to keep restricting selling prices in a scenario where input costs are rising sharply,” Harker noted. “The coming months will illustrate the extent to which companies are happy to see margins come under pressure in order to keep orders flowing in.”

Kuwaiti firms also reported a notable increase in export orders. Optimism about future output remained high, supported by competitive strategies, product development, and marketing.

Qatar growth slows slightly

Qatar’s non-oil sector saw a slight dip in overall momentum in April, with its PMI falling to 50.7 from 52 in March. Despite the decline, the index stayed above the neutral 50 mark for the 16th consecutive month, reflecting continued—if slower—growth.

Output among Qatari non-energy firms rose for the first time in 2025, but the sector faced a drop in new business and a cooling labor market.

“The PMI indicated continuing growth of the non-energy private sector economy at the start of the second quarter, but there was a loss of momentum owing mainly to a renewed reduction in new business and slower employment growth,” said Trevor Balchin, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“The latest figure of 50.7 was the lowest in three months and below the long-run trend level of 52.3, as weaker demand offset an increase in total output.”

Growth was led by the manufacturing, services, and wholesale and retail sectors, while construction activity remained weak despite signs of stabilization.

Job creation remained positive across sectors, although April saw the slowest employment growth since August 2024.

“The employment component remained elevated in April, indicating further strong jobs growth. That said, there was evidence that the recent labor market boom was easing, with the rate of job creation down at an eight-month low,” Balchin said.

Wage growth also slowed to a five-month low but remained among the strongest since the survey’s inception in 2017.

Looking ahead, Qatari businesses maintained optimism for the year ahead, citing growth in real estate, infrastructure development, tourism, and a rising expatriate population as key drivers.


Saudi bank lending hits $827bn in March, fastest growth in over 3.5 years

Updated 05 May 2025
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Saudi bank lending hits $827bn in March, fastest growth in over 3.5 years

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s banking sector continued its robust lending expansion in March, with total credit reaching SR3.1 trillion ($827.2 billion), marking a 16.26 percent year-on-year increase. 

According to data from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, this represents the highest annual rise in three years and eight months. 

The surge was primarily fueled by corporate lending, which rose from 52.46 percent of total bank credit in March 2024 to 55.19 percent this year. Credit extended to businesses grew by 22.3 percent over this period to exceed SR1.71 trillion. 

This shift underscores how businesses are now the dominant force shaping Saudi Arabia’s lending landscape, signaling the economy’s accelerating diversification.     

Real estate activities continued to lead within the corporate loan mix, comprising 22 percent of business lending and growing by an impressive 40.5 percent year-on-year to reach SR374.5 billion. 

The sector’s continued expansion reflects heightened demand for housing, commercial infrastructure, and new development projects across the Kingdom’s mega-cities and giga-projects under Vision 2030. 

Other key sectors included wholesale and retail trade, which held a 12.43 percent share with SR212.8 billion in lending. Manufacturing accounted for 11.05 percent, with SR189.18 billion in loans. The electricity, gas, and water supply sector comprised 10.6 percent, with loans totaling SR181.43 billion. 

Each of these areas benefited from increased public and private sector spending and reforms targeting industrial growth and economic resilience. 

Notably, education — while accounting for just 0.55 percent of corporate loans — posted the highest growth rate across all sectors at 44.7 percent, reaching SR9.35 billion. This surge aligns with the Kingdom’s efforts to expand educational access and upgrade academic infrastructure in line with long-term human capital goals. 

Financial and insurance activities also showed strong momentum, expanding 38.41 percent to hit SR161.23 billion, ranking third in growth after real estate and education. The rise reflects increased demand for financial services, greater insurance penetration, and fintech integration across key economic sectors. 

Meanwhile, retail lending stood at SR1.39 trillion in March, growing 9.6 percent year on year. However, its share of total credit declined from 47.54 percent in March 2024 to 44.81 percent this year, reflecting a gradual shift in the banking sector’s focus from consumer finance to business-driven growth. 

This moderation in retail lending share comes despite strong performance in personal loans, auto finance, and housing credit, indicating that corporate and commercial financing now command greater attention from lenders responding to market trends and government priorities.   

Improved lending quality 

According to an April 2025 report by McKinsey & Company, the quality of lending in Saudi Arabia has improved across nearly all major sectors. Based on their analysis of expected credit loss versus lending volume from 2020 to 2023, sectors such as services, finance and insurance, and utilities have shown both increased lending and lower credit risk. 

A key finding in McKinsey’s data is that financial institutions in Saudi Arabia are increasingly diversifying their portfolios toward sectors with lower ECL growth and higher lending volumes. For example, the services and financial sectors have exhibited strong improvements in lending quality, while construction and agriculture continue to show relatively higher risk levels.  

A bubble chart in the report maps lending volume against changes in ECL, revealing that the Saudi banking sector is pivoting toward sectors with improving credit profiles. 

Sectors like manufacturing, trade, electricity, and utilities now dominate lending — not only in volume but also due to their lower risk outlooks. This trend aligns with national efforts to prioritize economic diversification and reduce overexposure to volatile or high-risk sectors. 

In the Gulf Cooperation Council, construction and trade sectors are growing steadily — according to McKinsey — at 5 to 8 percent annually, while real estate is expanding around 8 percent, supported by projects across Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Manufacturing is also gaining traction, bolstered by targeted industrial strategies. 

Meanwhile, emerging industries such as education, finance, and food services are collectively growing at rates of 20 percent or more annually.   

Capital market innovation 

McKinsey also noted that Saudi banks are transitioning from a traditional “originate-to-hold” model to a more agile “originate-to-distribute,” or OTD, model. This shift enables banks to issue loans and then offload risk through tools like loan trading, securitization, and syndicated deals, freeing up capital for further lending. 

In a milestone for Saudi financial markets, 2025 saw the signing of the Kingdom’s first residential mortgage-backed securities. Legal frameworks are being developed to enable more such instruments, providing capital-light financing options and paving the way for a more liquid corporate bond market.   

McKinsey projects that OTD volumes in Saudi Arabia could nearly double by 2030, improving banks’ return on assets and equity through faster lending cycles and increased fee income. This is expected to enhance financial sector efficiency while supporting large-scale projects through innovative funding channels.  

ESG and digital transformation 

The report also highlighted the growing role of environmental, social, and governance standards in shaping Saudi lending. With national sustainability agendas in place, many banks are embedding ESG principles into their credit frameworks, including the issuance of green bonds and sustainability-linked loans. 

At the same time, operational efficiency is improving. Front-office productivity is rising as banks invest in AI-driven analytics, advanced risk modeling, and automation. This not only increases competitiveness but also enables faster, more accurate credit decisions in a dynamic market. 

The combined effect is a more resilient, innovative, and inclusive lending landscape — one that supports diversified economic growth while safeguarding financial stability. 

With credit demand projected to grow by 12 to 14 percent annually through the end of the decade, Saudi banks are expected to maintain strong momentum. 

Still, McKinsey emphasizes that sustained growth will require banks to boost productivity and embrace operational innovation.  

Some banks have already shown improvement, but the corporate and investment banking sector still has room to optimize client service and internal efficiency. 

Currently, front-office productivity varies widely among GCC banks. Coverage teams in lagging institutions spend just 20 percent of their time on client-facing activities, compared to 30 percent among industry leaders. McKinsey projects that future top performers will raise that figure to 40 percent by 2030 — a shift that will require significant investment in AI and internal digitization. 

GCC banks are also closing the gap with global peers in analytics and automation. As these capabilities scale, AI-powered operations are expected to drive faster risk modeling, more responsive lending, and greater agility.  

As the region’s markets mature and international competition intensifies, CIB institutions must evolve to offer more sophisticated solutions — such as capital-light lending, securitization, and structured finance. 

Banks that adapt and build long-term investor relationships will be best positioned to shape the market and capture the most promising opportunities.  


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector growth continues in April as PMI hits 55.6 

Updated 05 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector growth continues in April as PMI hits 55.6 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continued to expand in April, with the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 55.6, indicating sustained growth in business activity, a new survey showed.  

According to the latest Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report compiled by S&P Global, the April reading marked a slight drop from 58.1 in March but remained comfortably above the neutral 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction. 

Despite the marginal decline, Saudi Arabia’s PMI for April was still higher than the UAE’s reading of 54.0 and Kuwait’s 54.2. 

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “As of April 2025, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy continues to assert itself as a pivotal component of the nation’s economic landscape.”  

He added: “The diversification efforts have continued to bear fruit, underscoring the Kingdom’s strategic shift away from oil dependency toward a more balanced and sustainable economic framework.”  

The PMI survey signalled a strong increase in employment levels across the non-oil private sector in April. 

The rate of hiring growth accelerated to its joint-fastest pace in ten and a half years, matching the level recorded in October 2023, as companies expanded their staffing capacity in response to rising sales and increased activity. 

As a result, staff cost inflation surged to a record high in April, reversing the slowdown in cost pressures seen in March. 

“Employment in the non-oil private sector has been particularly vibrant. This surge in employment is a response to rising sales and increased business activity, prompting firms to expand staffing capacities,” said Al-Ghaith.  

The report added that business activity at Saudi Arabia’s non-oil companies increased sharply at the start of the second quarter, with firms commonly reporting an expansion in output due to higher sales, new project approvals, and strong tourist numbers. 

“While output growth remains robust, it is somewhat tempered by global economic uncertainties and competitive pressures affecting client spending. Nonetheless, employment figures continue to climb, indicating a sustained growth trend since last May,” added Al-Ghaith.  

He further noted that Saudi Arabia had successfully managed inflation compared to other nations, highlighting the Kingdom’s effective control of domestic prices amid global uncertainties. 

The latest PMI data also signalled a steep increase in purchasing activity, with the growth rate reaching a three-month high. 

S&P Global noted that expectations among non-oil firms for output in one year’s time increased slightly from March, although overall business optimism remained below the long-run survey average. 

Looking ahead, Al-Ghaith said the Kingdom’s fiscal prospects remain positive for 2025. 

“Forecasts suggest a 3 percent expansion in overall gross domestic product and a 4.5 percent increase in non-oil sectors, continuing the upward trajectory in non-oil activities,” said Al-Ghaith.  

He added: “This growth is crucial for sustaining the economic transformation outlined in Vision 2030, which aims to foster diverse, innovative industries.” 


Oil Updates — crude tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms

Updated 05 May 2025
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Oil Updates — crude tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms

SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday as OPEC+ is set to further speed up oil output hikes, spurring concerns about more supply coming into a market clouded by an uncertain demand outlook, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.34, or 2.19 percent, to $59.95 a barrel by 10:17 a.m. Saudi time while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56.87 a barrel, down $1.42, or 2.44 percent.

Both contracts touched their lowest since April 9 at Monday’s open after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day.

The June increase from the eight producers in the OPEC+ group will take the total combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44 percent unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations.

“The May 3 OPEC+ decision to raise production quotas another 411,000 bpd for June adds to the market expectation that the global supply/demand balance is moving to a surplus,” Tim Evans, founder of Evans on Energy said in a note.

The premium between the front-month Brent contract and that for delivery in six months was 4 cents a barrel, narrowing from 47 cents in the previous session.

However, the spread flipped to a discount, known as a contango structure, of 11 cents a barrel earlier on Monday, for the first time since December 2023, reflecting expectations that the later-dated market is amply supplied or demand may drop.

Barclays and ING have also lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC+ decision.

Barclays reduced its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING expects Brent to average $65 this year, down from $70 previously.

“We now expect OPEC+ to phase out the additional voluntary adjustments by October 2025 but also expect slightly slower US oil output growth,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.

The net impact of the higher OPEC+ output and lower US output has increased Barclays’ estimate of supply in 2025 by 290,000 bpd for 2025 and 110,000 bpd for 2026, he said.

ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said the global oil balance is expected to move deeper into surplus throughout 2025.

“The oil market has been dealing with significant demand uncertainty amid tariff risks. This change in OPEC+ policy adds to uncertainty on the supply side,” they added.