Impact of Pakistan army chief’s visit to Kabul

Hopes of improvement in strained Islamabad-Kabul relations were raised when Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa paid an unannounced visit to Kabul on May 10 to hold talks with the Afghan leadership following mediation by the United Kingdom and United States, but these were short-lived, as a week later President Ashraf Ghani repeated his allegations that Pakistan operated an organized system of support for the Afghan Taliban. 

The visit triggered speculations as it showed a sense of urgency being the first such undisclosed trip by a high-ranking official. 

It was obviously meant to discuss important issues face-to-face with Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation which is leading the Afghan peace process. 

Bajwa was accompanied by Lt. Gen Faiz Hameed, the head of Pakistan’s premier spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has been providing key inputs in shaping Pakistan’s Afghan policy. 

On the surface, the visit focused on the stalled Afghan peace process and Pakistan’s role in moving it forward by using its influence on the Taliban to remain involved in intra-Afghan negotiations and accept a cease-fire. However, other issues, mostly security, also reportedly came up for discussion in view of the recent cross-border incidents in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in which a number of Pakistani security personnel were killed and injured.

The presence of the British Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Nicholas Carter in the Bajwa-Ghani meeting indicated that the UK was trying to mediate between the two countries to mend their ties and work together for Afghan peace. Carter had earlier in the day visited Islamabad for a meeting with Bajwa and then flown to Kabul. 

However, the feel-good mood generated by the Bajwa visit quickly vanished when Ghani in an interview alleged that Taliban carried out recruitment in Pakistan and received logistics and financial support. 

Rahimullah Yusufzai

Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special envoy for Afghanistan Reconciliation, subsequently disclosed that Washington and London were making efforts to bring improvements in Pak-Afghan relations by persuading the two neighboring countries to negotiate a security cooperation agreement. He cautioned that Pakistan would suffer more due to the fallout in case the Afghan peace process collapsed. 

There is no indication that Bajwa’s visit reduced the mistrust that has haunted Pak-Afghan relations since Pakistan’s independence in 1947. Border disputes, harboring political dissidents and militants posing a threat to the two countries and trade issues have negatively impacted their ties. Still, the visit inserted some positivity in the normally uneasy relationship.

 Ghani appreciated Pakistan’s “sincere and positive role in the Afghan peace process.” It reflected a big change in his attitude, at least visibly, as barely two weeks ago he had asked Pakistan to make a choice between friendship or enmity with Afghanistan. It conveyed a strong message that Pakistan has to choose between befriending the Afghan government or remaining a friend of the Taliban. 

Even Afghanistan’s first Vice President, Amrullah Saleh, former top spymaster known for his animosity toward Pakistan, for the first time refrained from using negative words about Islamabad’s peacemaking role in Afghanistan. He used the words “distinguished delegation” while mentioning the visitors from Pakistan and said they had a sincere and frank discussion by giving a higher precedence to diplomacy. Saleh quoted an Afghan proverb: “If a knot can be opened and untied by hands, the use of teeth won’t be necessary.”

However, the feel-good mood generated by the Bajwa visit quickly vanished when Ghani in an interview alleged that Taliban carried out recruitment in Pakistan and received logistics and financial support. Islamabad termed Ghani’s allegations irresponsible and baseless, criticized Kabul for disregarding Pakistan’s constructive role in the peace process and warned that this could undermine mutual trust. Pakistan has been urging the Afghan government to effectively utilize forums such as the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity to address bilateral issues instead of employing the media to do diplomacy and air grievances. 

Bajwa during his Kabul visit said Pakistan would always support an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace process based on mutual consensus of all stakeholders. This position has been repeatedly stated by all Pakistani leaders including Prime Minister Imran Khan, whose maiden visit to Afghanistan in November 2020 also raised hopes as a joint document of shared vision was signed to work for peace and prosperity.

 Timelines were also announced to achieve three objectives, including re-energizing joint intelligence services-led work analyzing, mapping and cooperating against “enemies of peace and those undermining the peace process” by December 2020 and finalizing joint proposals for Afghan refugees’ return and regional connectivity by January 1, 2021. No progress has been reported on these decisions. 

Washington and Kabul believe Islamabad can do more to persuade the Taliban to choose peace over war. The debate on the level of Pakistan’s influence on the Taliban has been continuing these past years, but just weeks ago Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said the country’s leverage over the group was “exaggerated.”

Though Pakistan has in recent months forcefully pleaded with the Taliban to reduce violence, commit to a cease-fire and attend the proposed intra-Afghan peace conference in Istanbul, Taliban continue to do whatever suits the group’s interests.

*Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998. Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1